A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. A Fun Rabbit Hole.

(1) I went down a fun rabbit hole today and though I'd share a summary of that adventure with you.

(2) In solitary play I have perfect knowledge of US entry and tension pool levels.

(3) Thus, I have perfect knowledge of US entry option status; e.g., does the US have the necessary entry and tension to pass gear up 22(11), and US DOW chance vs Ge & Jp .

(4) I spent today building a tool (actual a sheet in my AAR EXCEL spreadsheet) that provides expected and sigma entry levels based on the number of chits in the 4 pools (i.e., Ge/It entry, tension, Jp entry & tension).

(5) This tool is not only useful for solitary play but would be of benefit in face to face play where the actual chit values are hidden from the axis players and (possibly) non-US players.

(6) I'm not sure what the protocol is for face-to-face games on whether or not the US player shares these values for his allied side players?

(7) I digress ... for solitary play I wanted develop US entry chit statistics in order to make, or support, axis reactions to US entry possibilities.

(8) I started with US chit distributions in the table below; specifically, average and sigma chit value per year.
03-AX-Chit-Distributions.png
03-AX-Chit-Distributions.png (54.61 KiB) Viewed 115 times
(9) I then developed a table where the only input is number of chits by year in the 4 pools (i.e., Ge/It entry, tension, Jp entry, tension).

(10) Now, once chits are move from entry to tension and/or removed (lost) from entry the player will have to make a educated guess on from what "year" those chits were.

(11) Or, one could just average and use fractional chits with the constraint that the total across years must equal the actual total number of chits in the pool(s).

(12) Below is the actual US entry and tension pools.

(13) Next is my estimate ... note that I use fractional chits for chit move from entry to tension and correspondingly left in entry.

(14) I also have two slots to compare the estimates to one or two cases.

(15) The estimate below shows a comparison to actual.

(16) # sigs < 0 indicate that the estimate (in this case vs the actual) exceeds the case.

(17) # sigs >= 0 indicate that the estimate is less that the case under consideration.
03-AX-US-Entry-Chits-Actual.png
03-AX-US-Entry-Chits-Actual.png (108.48 KiB) Viewed 115 times
03-AX-US-Entry-Current-Estimate.png
03-AX-US-Entry-Current-Estimate.png (18.63 KiB) Viewed 115 times
(18) For example, the axis player wishes to know how close the allies are to 22(11) Gear up production and (Jp 31) Oil Embargo for the end of this coming turn.

(19) This projection assumes that the all player will elect to put another chit in the Japanese entry pool.

(20) With respect to 22(11) Gear Up Production, the axis player can concluded that the US likely has more than enough entry in both Ge/It and Jp entry pools; and also is very close to the tension needed.

(21) The axis player can also conclude that the US has, or is close to having, enough entry for Jp 31 Oil embargo.

(22) Just curious, would you as the Japanese player fear that a US oil embargo is imminent? What about Gear Up production?
03-AX-US-Entry-Projected-EOT.png
03-AX-US-Entry-Projected-EOT.png (18.78 KiB) Viewed 115 times
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Centuur
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by Centuur »

Protocol towards other Allied players? That's up to the US player. He decides what he will tell the other Allied players on the situation regarding US entry. Tell, not show the actual chits in the pools.
Once I've seen a US player moaning and telling the other two Allied (me among them) players things were really, really bad. And than: in two turns: gear up, War appropriations Bill and a succesfull DoW on Japan. A deliberate play on his end...
Peter
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by Centuur »

Centuur wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:47 pm Protocol towards other Allied players? That's up to the US player. He decides what he will tell the other Allied players on the situation regarding US entry. Tell, not show the actual chits in the pools.
Once I've seen a US player moaning and telling the other two Allied (me among them) players things were really, really bad. And than: in two turns: gear up, War appropriations Bill and a succesfull DoW on Japan halfway 1941. Only high chits in the Japan pools... A deliberate play on his end...
Peter
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Centuur wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:47 pm Protocol towards other Allied players? That's up to the US player. He decides what he will tell the other Allied players on the situation regarding US entry. Tell, not show the actual chits in the pools.
Once I've seen a US player moaning and telling the other two Allied (me among them) players things were really, really bad. And than: in two turns: gear up, War appropriations Bill and a succesfull DoW on Japan. A deliberate play on his end...
Interesting. Was your allied partner gaming you or was he using "disinformation" to deceive your axis opponents?
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Impulse Planning.

Active Axis War Directives & US Entry Estimates.
03-AX-WAR-Projected-US-Entry.png
03-AX-WAR-Projected-US-Entry.png (134.64 KiB) Viewed 73 times
BRIEF.
03-AX-BRIEF.png
03-AX-BRIEF.png (65.37 KiB) Viewed 73 times
Weather & Actions.
03-AX-Weather-Action-Map.png
03-AX-Weather-Action-Map.png (93.49 KiB) Viewed 73 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by Joseignacio »

rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 4:43 pm
Centuur wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:47 pm Protocol towards other Allied players? That's up to the US player. He decides what he will tell the other Allied players on the situation regarding US entry. Tell, not show the actual chits in the pools.
Once I've seen a US player moaning and telling the other two Allied (me among them) players things were really, really bad. And than: in two turns: gear up, War appropriations Bill and a succesfull DoW on Japan. A deliberate play on his end...
Interesting. Was your allied partner gaming you or was he using "disinformation" to deceive your axis opponents?
Probably both. But he didnt need to do it with his allies.

And I think it is a terrible tactic. On one side he individually gets better chances to sneak one or two more victory points from his allies (possible obtention) but on the other side risks the game for all his side by not coordinating with his allies.
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Asian & Pacific Theaters.

Combat Logs.
03-AX-Asian-CL.png
03-AX-Asian-CL.png (63.38 KiB) Viewed 59 times
Japanese Coast.
03-AX-Pacific-Japanese-Coast-NS-NC.png
03-AX-Pacific-Japanese-Coast-NS-NC.png (191.97 KiB) Viewed 59 times
Land Combat.
03-AX-Asian-LC-CHI-92-135.png
03-AX-Asian-LC-CHI-92-135.png (264.52 KiB) Viewed 59 times
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Asian & Pacific Theaters. Southern China. South China Sea.
03-AX-Asian-Southern-China-South-China-Sea.png
03-AX-Asian-Southern-China-South-China-Sea.png (1.4 MiB) Viewed 59 times
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Asian & Pacific Theaters. Northern China.
03-AX-Asian-Northern-China.png
03-AX-Asian-Northern-China.png (1.87 MiB) Viewed 59 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Asian & Pacific Theaters. Manchuria. Japanese Home Islands.
03-AX-Asian-Manchuria-Pacific-Japanese-Home-Islands.png
03-AX-Asian-Manchuria-Pacific-Japanese-Home-Islands.png (1.65 MiB) Viewed 59 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Med.

Combat Logs.
03-AX-Med-CL.png
03-AX-Med-CL.png (19.59 KiB) Viewed 58 times
West Med.
03-AX-Med-West-Med-NC.png
03-AX-Med-West-Med-NC.png (210.79 KiB) Viewed 58 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Atlantic & West Africa.

Combat Logs.
03-AX-Atlantic-West-Africa-CL.png
03-AX-Atlantic-West-Africa-CL.png (71.14 KiB) Viewed 58 times
Cape St. Vincent.
03-AX-Atlantic-CSV-NC.png
03-AX-Atlantic-CSV-NC.png (200.21 KiB) Viewed 58 times
North Atlantic.
03-AX-Atlantic-North-Atlantic-NC.png
03-AX-Atlantic-North-Atlantic-NC.png (187.51 KiB) Viewed 58 times
Morocco. CSV.
03-AX-West-Africa-Morocco-CSV.png
03-AX-West-Africa-Morocco-CSV.png (1.22 MiB) Viewed 58 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Western Front.

Combat Logs.
03-AX-Western-CL.png
03-AX-Western-CL.png (20.67 KiB) Viewed 58 times
France.
03-AX-France.png
03-AX-France.png (1.74 MiB) Viewed 58 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. Impulse Assessment.

Briefs.
03-AX-BRIEF-Assessment.png
03-AX-BRIEF-Assessment.png (50.54 KiB) Viewed 58 times
Grades.
03-AX-WAR-Grades.png
03-AX-WAR-Grades.png (37.16 KiB) Viewed 58 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by Centuur »

Joseignacio wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 8:12 pm
rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 4:43 pm
Centuur wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 12:47 pm Protocol towards other Allied players? That's up to the US player. He decides what he will tell the other Allied players on the situation regarding US entry. Tell, not show the actual chits in the pools.
Once I've seen a US player moaning and telling the other two Allied (me among them) players things were really, really bad. And than: in two turns: gear up, War appropriations Bill and a succesfull DoW on Japan. A deliberate play on his end...
Interesting. Was your allied partner gaming you or was he using "disinformation" to deceive your axis opponents?
Probably both. But he didnt need to do it with his allies.

And I think it is a terrible tactic. On one side he individually gets better chances to sneak one or two more victory points from his allies (possible obtention) but on the other side risks the game for all his side by not coordinating with his allies.
I was playing the CW and another guy was playing the USSR, who was known in our group for taking chances with US entry by being a little reckless (it didn't matter if he was playing on the Allied or the Axis side). And it turned out to be a good decision for our game. He was suddenly not reckless when the US player announced to him (and the Axis players were not present at that time) that he wasn't going to tell us what the US chits would be, to prevent him from being to aggressive.
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Centuur wrote: Tue Jul 08, 2025 7:18 pm
Joseignacio wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 8:12 pm
rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 07, 2025 4:43 pm Interesting. Was your allied partner gaming you or was he using "disinformation" to deceive your axis opponents?
Probably both. But he didnt need to do it with his allies.

And I think it is a terrible tactic. On one side he individually gets better chances to sneak one or two more victory points from his allies (possible obtention) but on the other side risks the game for all his side by not coordinating with his allies.
I was playing the CW and another guy was playing the USSR, who was known in our group for taking chances with US entry by being a little reckless (it didn't matter if he was playing on the Allied or the Axis side). And it turned out to be a good decision for our game. He was suddenly not reckless when the US player announced to him (and the Axis players were not present at that time) that he wasn't going to tell us what the US chits would be, to prevent him from being to aggressive.
Wow ... intrigue among allies! Sounds fun.
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

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Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Impulse Planning.

Open Allied War Directives.
05-AL-WAR.png
05-AL-WAR.png (145.24 KiB) Viewed 27 times
CW Production & "Manual" Trade to France.
(1) Note: I "pulled" (i.e., removed) 2 CPs from Bay of Biscay, put them in Cardiff to "transport" the 2 traded (i.e; actually idled) UK RPs to the 2 French factories in Bordeaux.
05-AL-CW-2RP-to-France-Bordeaux.png
05-AL-CW-2RP-to-France-Bordeaux.png (1.3 MiB) Viewed 27 times
BRIEF.
05-AL-Brief.png
05-AL-Brief.png (88.85 KiB) Viewed 27 times
Weather & Actions Map.
05-AL-Weather-Actions.png
05-AL-Weather-Actions.png (100.79 KiB) Viewed 27 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Asian & Pacific Theaters.

Combat Logs.
05-AL-Asian-Pacific-CL.png
05-AL-Asian-Pacific-CL.png (75.39 KiB) Viewed 12 times
Sea of Japan.
05-AL-Pacific-Japanese-Coast-NC.png
05-AL-Pacific-Japanese-Coast-NC.png (193.15 KiB) Viewed 12 times
Japanese Home Islands. Sea of Japan. Japanese Coast. China Sea.
05-AL-Pacific-Japanese-Home-Islands.png
05-AL-Pacific-Japanese-Home-Islands.png (1.53 MiB) Viewed 12 times
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rkr1958
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Eastern Front.

Combat Logs.
05-AL-Eastern-CL.png
05-AL-Eastern-CL.png (15.7 KiB) Viewed 11 times
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Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

Post by rkr1958 »

Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. East Africa.

Combat Logs.
05-AL-East-African-CL.png
05-AL-East-African-CL.png (10.53 KiB) Viewed 10 times
Map.
05-AL-East-African-Kenya-Ethiopia.png
05-AL-East-African-Kenya-Ethiopia.png (1.53 MiB) Viewed 10 times
Ronnie
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