Surrender of a major power

[klschult]

What influences surrender?

I believe its a function of National Morale, capture of a HQ, and number and value of units remaining, but what is the algorithm/value of each component.

I'm trying to get UK to surrender with capture of London, Manchester and Edinburgh without moving the HQ to Toronto. It looks like I'm going to have to take Egypt as well and eliminate all units in Egypt and Great Britain.

Alternatively, is there any way to get GB to surrender if the capital has moved to Toronto?

[BillRunacre]

An explanation is given in the Manual on page 74 under Surrendering Nations, complete with the formula.

In answer to your further question, if the capital is at Toronto then British National Morale would have to be zero for them to surrender, which is unlikely.

[klschult]

Thank you.

Of course the first manual I found ended at page 71 ...

But I will persevere.

[klschult]

"Major Country Surrender = 3% * number of remaining units within the home country"

I'm surprised this mechanism has nothing to do with National Morale, but I'm ok with it.

I assume units in Egypt are not "in the home country."?
Ships in a home country port?
Ships at sea?
Gibaltar and Malta?

So if I eliminate all units on Great Britain and Northern Ireland, including ports, then the chance of surrender when I take the last capital (of the 3) is 100%. If the garrison of Northern Ireland is intact, then the chance is 97%.

Or 91% if Gib and Malta count, but I can't build there so maybe not.

[klschult]

I did a test.

It appears that Gibraltar and Malta are considered "home country." Including them led to a 70% probability of surrender and I got surrender in 7 of 10 cases. Still could be random noise, but it doesn't look like it. No prediction on Cyprus being included.

Naval units at sea and units in Egypt are not considered in the calculation. Each had 10 or more units which would have led to a 40% prediction.

[BillRunacre]

Yes, any territory that when you hover over it says it is "UK" is home territory as far as this test is concerned.

[klschult]

Aha! Thank you.

[klschult]

Axis controls every space in Great Britain, Northern Ireland, Cyprus and Gibraltar.
The UK has one unit on a UK home hex, the garrison of Malta.

there are also;
9 naval units
5 land units in Egypt, including Aus and NZ
2 units in Canada
UK National Morale is 75%

I just took London
"Major Country Surrender = 3% * number of remaining units within the home country"
By my calculation there should be a 97% chance of the UK surrendering (100-3(Malta)=97

The capital has moved to Toronto 3 times now.

What am I missing?

[BillRunacre]

If the capital has moved, then where it has moved to will be UK territory too, so any units there will have to be taken into consideration too, if applicable.

Also, as the capital has moved, the country has not lost all its capitals, so it won't surrender.

[klschult]

This is the turn the capital, London in this case, has fallen. Manchester and Edinburgh are Axis controlled.

Does the UK check for surrender BEFORE moving the capital to Toronto?

I did a similar test in June, see post about 3 up thread, and that was the way it appeared to be working. If Manchester and Edinburgh are Axis then, when London falls, test for surrender at .03 X number of units in UK home spaces.

In this run through, there are 3 UK units on home spaces, so there should be a 91% chance of surrender before moving the capital to Toronto. In 6 trials it has moved every time. (0.00005% probability IF my memory is correct, my math is correct, and it works the way I thought it worked.)

Has something changed or am I missing something?

There are a bunch of UK naval units in the med, some land units in Egypt, and two units in Canada - but I was pretty sure those don't count. Otherwise, one corps in the UK (Glasgow), and Gibraltar and Malta garrisons.

[BillRunacre]

This is the turn the capital, London in this case, has fallen. Manchester and Edinburgh are Axis controlled.

Does the UK check for surrender BEFORE moving the capital to Toronto?

I did a similar test in June, see post about 3 up thread, and that was the way it appeared to be working. If Manchester and Edinburgh are Axis then, when London falls, test for surrender at .03 X number of units in UK home spaces.

In this run through, there are 3 UK units on home spaces, so there should be a 91% chance of surrender before moving the capital to Toronto. In 6 trials it has moved every time. (0.00005% probability IF my memory is correct, my math is correct, and it works the way I thought it worked.)

Has something changed or am I missing something?

There are a bunch of UK naval units in the med, some land units in Egypt, and two units in Canada - but I was pretty sure those don't count. Otherwise, one corps in the UK (Glasgow), and Gibraltar and Malta garrisons.

The actual transfer takes place at the moment of surrender, so there is no way to prevent it happening by taking the other capitals first.

[klschult]

I'm not expressing this well.

When the last of the 3 capitals in the UK is taken by the axis, what happens
1. There is a check for surrender, (with the probability = .03 x the number of units on home spaces.)
2. The capital automatically moves to Toronto without a check for surrender?


Answer 1 appeared to be true back in June.
Answer 2 appears to be true now.

[BillRunacre]

There has been no change in the engine, the capital moves (in engine terms) when the UK surrenders, which means the UK doesn't actually surrender (in game terms) due to the script moving its capital.

I hope that's clearer?

[klschult]

Thank you.

[Duedman]

"Major Country Surrender = 3% * number of remaining units within the home country"

I'm surprised this mechanism has nothing to do with National Morale, but I'm ok with it.

It actually has. As was confirmed by Bill or Hubert quite some time ago.

When no Capital is left the chance to continue fighting is:
3% * number of remaining units on home soil * national morale
(Minor Countries get 6%)

So usually, when the last capital falls, the NM is alreay quite low.
Lets say the SU loses its last capital but and has 30 units left with 50% NM. Thats 3*30*0,5 = 45% chance to not surrender

Britain is scripted to move it's capital away unless Alexandria or Toronto are captured by that point already.