A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Start of Turn.

Initiative.

00-Initiative.png (51 KiB) Viewed 484 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Impulse Planning.

Open Allied War Directives.

00-WAR-Allied.png (126.82 KiB) Viewed 477 times

Attack Planning.

01-AL-AP-CL.png (17.04 KiB) Viewed 477 times

01-AL-AP.png (25.6 KiB) Viewed 477 times

Briefs, Weather & Actions.
(1) I'm cutting back on the redundant briefs.
(2) Specifically those which "parrot" part or all of open WAR directive(s), which I think was the majority.
(3) Now, I'm only writing WAR Directive Briefs if they include specific combat actions (e.g., ground strike, land combat, sub attack) and measure desired outcomes.
(4) Also, I'm writing them (i.e., briefs) if they expand on or deviate from the non-brief WAR directives.
(5) For planning thoughts beyond that I'll include them in my new observation category and separate from WAR directives and their scoring.
(6) As you can tell, my AAR capture and approach is always changing/evolving; hopefully for the better.

01-AL-Briefs-Weather-Action.png (33.49 KiB) Viewed 477 times

[WIFKillzone]

Really good read and battle, thank you for posting.

Can I ask what would be your strategic assessment of the battle to date, a retrospective of each countries progress and future prospects for success?

Nice move cutting off Italian supply by the British, will make up for some of their losses. High price they paid, but resultant German delays may be costly.

Was thinking you might be going through spain to cutoff Gibraltar there for a moment.

[rkr1958]

Really good read and battle, thank you for posting.

Thanks!

Can I ask what would be your strategic assessment of the battle to date, a retrospective of each countries progress and future prospects for success?

My assessments at this point are:
Japan.
(1) Japan is in the weakest, most fragile position of all the Major Powers except for perhaps the Nationalist, which aren't a major power to themselves (more on that later).
(2) Japan has already lost Manchuria except for Port Arthur (objective) & 2 Manchurian RPs and they're probably going to lose Korea (& it's 1 RP).
(3) I think it's 50/50 on whether or not Japan can hold onto Port Arthur and 1 of the 2 RPs (most western on the Chinese border).
(4) And if they hold it only be by being able to force a peace after the Soviets capture 3 of the 4 Manchuria/Korea RPs.
(5) Thought that optional rule is NOT coded, I'm playing it.
(6) Also, Japan is not in a good position to go after the US & CW'; especially their Asian & Pacific holding that they can easily swipe in 1942.
(7) Japan's lack of production is also much of a concern.
(8) Over the past game year (6 turns); their production has been running at 62% of maximum possible; or an average of 12 BP per turn.
(9) A conservative number would be 14 to 15 BP per turn (say 14.5 avg).
(10) Taking that avg as gospel; this means an underproduction of 15 BPs for the year.
(11) Also, they're slowly drawing down their oil stockpile, which is currently at 4 saved; with only 1 oil (Synth) income per turn.
(12) While the allies historical strategy was Germany first, this counterfactual may see the Western Allies (mainly or solely the US) on crippling Japan on par with going after Germany (& Italy).

Germany
(1) Germany is interesting, my opinion on their strategic position has change from poor to pretty good over the last turn.
(2) While they're not going to be able to launch a historical 1941 Barbarossa; I think they may be able to go in May of 1942 and go strong.
(3) How far they can get, I don't know because of having to wait to 1942 also means a stronger Soviet Union & very likely an active USA.
(4) I think Germany's problem is going to be time.
(5) By that I mean strong and rich USA and a likely stronger Soviet Union.

Italy.
(1) I don't think Italy will survive as long as they did historically (i.e.; Turn 25, Sept 1943).
(2) I did gamble with Italy on West Africa and lost (or Italy lost).
(3) I always struggle with Italy and I though it was a good/interesting gamble.
(4) I say that the loss was bad luck but not necessarily outlandishly bad.
(5) Now, talk about what happen in Kenya & Somaliland; that was truly bad luck!
(6) The CW had a 14% shot to save Kenya and made it!
(7) Not only did this result in the saving of Kenya; but eventually in the lost of Somaliland.
(8) Also, I think the Italians have had worse than average luck in their (Med) naval battles vs the CW (& France).
(9) Back to West Africa & Morocco, I really though the Brits were going to lose it all!
(10) But they didn't.
(11) The counterfactual feel (for me) had the historical feel of El Alamein, except for being on "opposite" sides of North Africa.

CW.
(1) The CW has taken losses (boy have they taken losses); but I think to the long term benefit of a crushing defeat of all the axis.
(2) To date, the CW has lost units equivalent to 184 BPs; which includes aligned defeated minors (i.e., Poland, Yugoslavia, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark).
(3) In looking back at my logs, CW got 82 BPs from those aligned minor, most of which; but no all was lost.
(4) Let's say a rough estimate of 60 BPs for the aligns loss when accounting for gained CPs, NED TRS, CAs, Terr.
(5) This would put CW losses to date at an equivalent of 120 to 125 BPs.
(6) Again, very heavy; but to very good purposes.
(7) These losses delayed the Fall of France and then forced Germany to collapse Vichy to the benefit of US entry & no Vichy!
(8) Except for strategic bombing & the battle of the Atlantic, the battle for France was (to date) the CW's only direct military interaction with Germany.
(9) Their major focus; especially until US entry and mobilization in the West if complete, is to degrade/thwart Italy.
(10) Something I think they've done very well.

USA.
(1) I think the US is in very good position.
(2) It may be 50/50 on who declares war on whom (e.g., Japan/Ge/It on USA or USA on Japan/Ge/Italy).
(3) Getting US DOW % up (which is currently at 20% for Jp & Ge/It) is becoming a priority.
(4) From a solo gameplay, I haven't decided to exactly how to handle this.
(5) For example do I try US DOW on axis when it reaches 50% or wait?
(6) Or as the axis do I DOW the US before it reaches 70 to 80%; even if not in position to exploit that DOW in order to avoid US surprise DOW effects?
(7) I need to do some "flowcharting" with likely probabilistic branch draws to mapped (or figure) that out.

USSR.
(1) I think the USSR is going to be stronger and in a better position than historical.
(2) First, no German invasion until 1942 at the earliest.
(3) At which time the Soviets will have wrapped up their war with Japan and have a much stronger military than historically.
(4) They are "stuffing" the border and will continue to do to delay Germany's DOW for as long as possible.
(5) The longer they can delay it; means a stronger and more powerful USA that Germany will have to face.

China.
(1) CCP is very strong & the Nationalist are on their heels.
(2) Overall, though I think China along with Japan's war with the Soviets will be Japan's destruction.
(3) Again, as long as both can absorb Japan's attention the "easier" it will be for a strong US to neuter Japan.

Nice move cutting off Italian supply by the British, will make up for some of their losses. High price they paid, but resultant German delays may be costly.

Was thinking you might be going through spain to cutoff Gibraltar there for a moment.

(1) I think Germany's only real chance now is to go East.
(2) Don't think it's a good chance; but really all they have.
(3) The Italian navy has significantly been degraded.
(4) I think they only have 4 warships left (2 BBs, 2 CAs).
(5) They also only have 1 TRS.
(6) It's their naval air that's allowing them to control the West Med.

[WIFKillzone]

Thank you, great summary. Agree on all points from my armchair.

Didn't see Italy lose all that naval though, as I didn't read all the detail, but did see 1 TRS go down.

I do wonder how much extra time it would have taken to take Spain and close Gibralter, and how that would have helped Italy over time, and whether Germany could accomplish a Russia 42 attack if they tried, doubtful without some italian battleships, and if Italy needs to vacate west Africa, that wouldnt help either. So good choice...

Also think those British losses will pay off for the reasons you mentioned. How many thousands of men let alone the financial-resource cost, would that have toppled government and forced a sue for peace, most likely.

For Japan, that was interesting to see their rise in Manchuria and subsequent fall, was wondering if Vladivostok (spell check) was Japans target at first, wishing it was actually. Was also interesting to see Japan go all in on supporting Persia, brave. Brings all the questions of two front war and whether they just got spread to thin.

Dont recall Norway, so not sure what the impacts of not taking her out will unfold over time.

Thanks again for all your hard work, will be following even more closely going forward.

[rkr1958]

Also think those British losses will pay off for the reasons you mentioned. How many thousands of men let alone the financial-resource cost, would that have toppled government and forced a sue for peace, most likely.

Yeah, there's no manpower or morale penalty; especially for democratic MPs, in MWIF. I'd say at least there would have been a change in government. In such a case would Great Britain have gotten Lord Halifax or (as historical) Winston Churchill? If the latter, then one could argue he'd motivated the empire to keep on fighting. If the former, maybe Great Britain would have sued for peace.

I do a lot of reading on the history of WW2. One thing that I noticed in that the loss of heavy or even light cruiser even in the Pacific was felt significantly. And if your side sank it was a cause for great celebration. In (M)WiF I generally shrug off the loss of a cruiser or battleship as not that big of deal. It would be interesting if there was such a thing a national morale value that accounted for such things.

In the air battles off of Formosa in 1944 prior to the invasion of the Philippines; US carrier pilots again devastated the Japanese land and carrier air arm. Japan managed to damage one then a second US heavy cruiser; both of which were saved and served in the US post WW2 navy. However; Japanese pilots reported sinking 17 US CVs, a dozen or so of US CAs, BBs and CVLs and damaging scores more. One theory was that surviving Japanese air crews actually saw their comrade burning planes that had been shot down and thought they were US ships.

Dont recall Norway, so not sure what the impacts of not taking her out will unfold over time.

No Norway. I just seem not to be able to make that work (i.e., being cost & time effective) for Germany.

Thanks again for all your hard work, will be following even more closely going forward.

Appreciate it!

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

(1) I wanted to do something a little bit different this turn and share the details of what I went through for allied naval moves.

(2) I started the allied naval moves on Friday, spent sometime yesterday before watching college football starting at 11 a.m. and then spent a significant part of today (Sunday) finishing up the naval moves.

(3) I really wish I could automate my process, which I generally follow when the allies take a full naval move early in the turn.

(4) I'm not claiming this process is optimum; I'm sure there are veteran players out there have a better one.

(5) I would; however, like to hear want anyone has to say in hopes of every improving my process.

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Combat Logs.

01-AL-Naval-Move-CL.png (272.62 KiB) Viewed 424 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

The Sub Threat.

01-AL-Atlantic-Sub-Threat.png (24.75 KiB) Viewed 424 times

The Risk (After Fixing Production / CP Lines).

01-AL-Atlantic-CP-Risk.png (23.28 KiB) Viewed 424 times

Reserve CPs.

01-AL-Atlantic-Reserve-CPs.png (39.05 KiB) Viewed 424 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Remaining Escorts & Patrols.
AFTER:
(1) Moving down to [0] warships that SAS last turn.

(2) Making the 3 USN naval moves (all went to the North Atlantic).

(3) Making moves to other theaters (i.e., West Med raid, Red Sea squadron).

(4) Leaving reserve RN supplement West Med raiding force.

01-AL-Atlantic-RN-FR-Remaining-Escorts-Patrols.png (83.87 KiB) Viewed 421 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Revised West Med Supplemental Raiding Force (BB, CVL reassigned to Atlantic escort duty & CA also held in reserve).

01-AL-Med-Gib-West-Med-Reserve-Raiding-Force.png (12.56 KiB) Viewed 420 times

Initial Escort & Patrol Matrix.
CSV escorts too WEAK; especially given 3 RN/NED TRS Gps in [0]!

01-AL-Atlantic-Escort-Patrol-CSV-Escort-Too-Weak.png (31.48 KiB) Viewed 420 times

Second Revised Supplemental Raiding Force.
Spoiler. There was none. CVL, BB, CA sent out for escort.

01-AL-Med-Gib-West-Med-Reserve-Raiding-Force-Reassigned.png (147.72 KiB) Viewed 420 times

Final Escort & Patrol Matrix.

01-AL-Atlantic-Escorts-Patrols-Final.png (31.45 KiB) Viewed 420 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/August 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Revised Active Allied CP Lines.

01-AL-Atlantic-CP-Lines.png (165.13 KiB) Viewed 419 times

Western Allied Warships at Sea.

01-AL-Western-Allies-at-sea-warships.png (194.07 KiB) Viewed 419 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Naval Moves.

Combat Logs.
(1) I removed "redundant" headers from the version a few posts up.
(2) I think, I hope, this version is more "readable" than that pervious one.
(3) I continue to tweak my AAR template logging & reports in the hopes of making it more informative, concise and readable.
(4) Hopefully I'm not like a dog chasing my own tail!

01-AL-Naval-Move-CL.png (246.93 KiB) Viewed 368 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1.

Atlantic. Combat Logs.

01-AL-Atlantic-CL.png (169.29 KiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Atlantic.

Map 1/2.

01-AL-Atlantic.png (810.44 KiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Atlantic.

Map 2/2.

01-AL-Atlantic-2.png (1.1 MiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Med.

Combat Logs.

01-AL-Med-CL.png (57.95 KiB) Viewed 340 times

West Med. RN Naval Search.

01-AL-Med-West-Med-NC-1.png (201.18 KiB) Viewed 333 times

Map.

01-AL-Med.png (1.79 MiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. West Africa.

01-AL-West-Africa.png (1.07 MiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Europe.

Combat Logs.

01-AL-Western-CL.png (27.08 KiB) Viewed 340 times

01-AL-Eastern-CL.png (26.76 KiB) Viewed 340 times

Map.

01-AL-Europe.png (2.79 MiB) Viewed 340 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #1. Balkans.

01-AL-Balkans.png (1.49 MiB) Viewed 334 times