Expanded Allied Air HQ

[kentkroeckel]

Total air losses for this turn are as follows: Axis 292 while Allies are 734. Luftwaffe advantage of 442. This is getting painful and is impacting aircraft stock. Sorties for Allies was 50,000 while Germany was at 5,000. That is ten for every one. Allies do hope this impacts on game play soon. First picture shows some of this. Allied air bubble covers Italian Boot now.

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Next three pictures are of how Germany continues to fortify Southern Italy. I am not ashamed to say that as the Allied leader, I am intimidated. It only takes a few Axis units to surround a landing, making it difficult to break out. Germany need not destroy but merely contain, which will be a victory for Axis. Turn after turn of Luftwaffe bombing Task Forces inflicts significant damage. I still have one Task Force repairing from previous battles.

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Some hexes contain two and three ground pieces. Of course many are battalion / regiment but still, effective for defense.

[kentkroeckel]

Nothing much to report. No attacks or invasion. Heavy rain is coming on turn 26 for Mediterranean. This may have Allies wait until January of 1944. At that point US air and ground units get a 5 increase in morale while Germany takes a hit of 5 for air and ground.

[kentkroeckel]

December 25, 1943

Victory Points: For turn 35 and game total is 484. Next week things will change since challenge will be in 1944.

Amphibious losses for game are 99. Allies have received one hundred replacements: (25 X 4) (T-2 through T-26). Allies are only down one in pool so Italian D-Day will have transport capacity of 250.

European air weather: Cold
European ground weather: Snow, with water level of 3 and snow level of 5. These measurements are from France since Allies will invade there. I should have mentioned that earlier. My bad.

Mediterranean air weather: Heavy rain.
Mediterranean ground weather: Light mud with water level 3. This weather is taken from southern Mainland Italy since invasion will take place there.

Axis air phase losses: 50 for Luftwaffe and 64 for Allies.

First picture is of Mediterranean naval control.

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Next three pictures are of engagements over Italy. Order is from south to north.

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Despite weather, still many engagements. I ran out of room so had to cut off northern most part of southern Italian region. But rest assured, there was engagements there.

[kentkroeckel]

This post is about vengeance weapons. During December of 1943 Allies should transition from strategic bombing of submarines to vengeance weapons. I believe December is the earliest damage will register. I have taken two snapshots of the chart for each category of vengeance weapons. They are (launch site) and (factory). As I said beforehand, I do not believe there is a separate symbol for each nor does the game make a distinction of each. Meaning, bombing one is just as good as bombing the other, along with repair.

I did count them up becasue I know someone will want the exact amount. Ha.

First picture is of launch sites: There are 74 points.

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Next picture is of factories for vengeance weapons: There are 104 points.

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[kentkroeckel]

This turn is a lesson to Allies. Should not have tried to fly missions in the extreme weather. Worst losses yet and accomplished nothing.

Total losses for both phases: 217 for Axis and 955 for Allies. Luftwaffe gets biggest advantage of game, at 738. I believe a third of Allied air losses can be attributed to heavy rain. Sorties went from 55,000 last turn down to just 21,000. Horrifying week for Allies when you think about it. German sorties were 6,000.

First picture is snapshot of day 7 with about 95% done.

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Next picture shows weather making sea hexes rough and open.

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[kentkroeckel]

Odds looked deceptively good to attack on ferry from Messina to Reggio Calabria. Bad intelligence. Below are the results.

First attack.

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Second attack.

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Final picture is of engagements over southern Italy. Despite weather, still many.

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[kentkroeckel]

I have not looked at turn yet but it is there waiting for me to process. Yet I wanted to share my thought about this challenge. As I have mentioned beforehand, playing the game with a wonderful opponent makes the experience worthwhile.

I have had and I am sure some of you have had regrettable gaming experiences. I am not referring to interaction with game system but rather, an opponent. Sometimes personalities do not mesh with each other so a challenge will end. An example is, someone insulting with their language or belittles other players. This removes enjoyment of the gaming experience, unless both like that style of interaction.

I have had someone (I believe) attempt to cheat playing WitW. A side that never looses any engagement is probibly cheating, discontinuing turn and then restarting.

An unknown difference in gaming skill can make a challenge pointless too, unless both know and want the game to be instructional.

To be clear, none of this applies to this current challenge. Metalist is far better at WitW than I am or ever will be despite his somewhat newness to the game. He does have extensive experience with the WitE series, which I believe has helped him grasp WitW to a outstanding level. Below is a private communique he sent me just the other day and I wanted to share it.


Hi Kent,

I do enjoy the AAR. Sometimes I skip some posts when I feel like too much info is about to come, though. I will come back to read them at some point.

Weather is cooperating with the German High Command. Can Allies risk a naval invasion in bad weather? Time is ticking.

Cheers


Gaming at its best. This is what makes challenges worthwhile to me. I realize for some, only competition is satisfying and that is fine. But for me, interaction with opponents is also rewarding. Presenting the AAR goes along with this. But as Metalist wrote in correspondence, I talk too much, giving away secrets in AAR. This is the risk of a (real turn AAR). It is kind of Metalist to proverbially, look away at the sensitive information I provide in AAR. Ha.

Next point Metalist brought up is concerning for Allies. Time is running out for Italian D-Day. Has to happen by February 1944. Only last turn did the final Task Force become available for invasion. Last ground unit too. Guess Allies forgot to mention that. Oops. Ha. That was on purpose. But the weather is concerning because Italian D-Day may have to be conducted under heavy weather.

[kentkroeckel]

January 1, 1944. In new year so much changes in game.

Victory points: 12 for turn and game total is 494. This and less will be the new normal. Below is snapshot of point allocation for turn. Transition form submarine bombing to vengeance weapon bombing is okay.

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I have included pictures of current levels of damage to both categories of vengeance weapons, launch and factory. First is launch sites.

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This picture is of factory damage. There are many more locations.

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Amphibious losses are: 103.

European air weather: Snow.
European ground weather: Snow. Water level is 2 and snow is 7.

Mediterranean air weather: Rain.
Mediterranean ground weather: Light mud. Water level is 3.

[kentkroeckel]

Only one commentary for January 1, 1944 becasue there will not be much information. I am resting all Allied aircraft. Just no point flying in either theater this turn. There will no ground attack either. No invasion. Only rest and prep for this cycle. I apologize for a boring turn but needs to be this way. Decided to add some air information on Allied status of air morale and experience. First one is of Patrol aircraft.

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Next is of Torpedo bombers.

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Next is of Reconnaissance. Not all displayed but enough to give general condition of support aircraft.

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Final one is of night fighters. Most of them on screen shot. They have had a tough assignment of protecting bombers, day and night. These are not support aircraft in the normal sense but are being used as front line escort. Some squadrons are low in morale but still need to fly.

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[kentkroeckel]

January 8, 1944

Victory points: Turn was 11 and game total is 507.

Amphibious game losses are 104.

Axis air phase: Luftwaffe lost 104 and Allies lost just 1.

Axis did a full air phase but I think I am still going to keep air missions off the table for now. Everyone will rest. Weather is still dreadful.

European air: Snow
European ground: Snow. Water level is 2 and snow level is 6.

Mediterranean air: Rain
Mediterranean ground: Light mud. Water level is 4.

WitW system is based extensively with abstracts. Weather and non combat in particular. The ugly word (operational losses) plagues both sides but particularly Allies, accounting for a third of losses sometimes. Hundreds are often the number in this category for Allies. Bad weather, low morale, and low experience contribute massively to this number and is a constant challenge to both sides. Often Allies just have to attack with deficits in these categories to keep momentum alive. Below are pictures of Axis air engagement with weather. I tried to get close up of these so that is whey there are 4 pictures instead of 1. Some hexes are multiple.

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[kentkroeckel]

As I said earlier, no air phase. I have included though, the effect of weather on naval control. Really, the only effect is coming from port inherent effect and that is not much. hexes are at 0,except for a couple where Germany is protecting the Adriatic sea. Good choice for Metalist to do that because it is a potential landing area, east coast of Italy. Below is picture of Mediterranean sea control, or lack there of.

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there are no ground attacks this turn.

Below is condition of transports. Should have included them instead of night fighters last post. Oops.

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The next two pictures I debated to show but why not. How much intelligence can Germany (Metalist) get from this. Ha. A lot. First is tactical bombers. I need them on 7 days too. Performance has not been noticeably effected in a negative way with low morale. Surprisingly, resting them does not seem to help either. Most are present on screen shot.

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Fighter bombers are in a similar state to tactical bombers becasue they are being used the same way and are trained as such. For most at least. I can only post one more picture so next is level bombers. Americans are doing well but British are low with Morale. I am showing the end of list to show difference of the two. Pictured in only a fourth of the bomber fleet.

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[kentkroeckel]

Metalist informed me that Allies will have to wait till tomorrow for turn. Cruel! But he had a really good question that I think is good to post. One would think an invasion occurs on same turn but that is not completely accurate. Below is my answer and thought as to why it is becoming a significant point.


Hello Metalist.

Yes, you are correct. Allies initiate an invasion but it actually happens the following turn during logistics. For game purposes, on the same turn an invasion is launched; Allies are given the thrill of seeing a Task Force move to invasion hex. Yea! Allies are also told how many hostile sea hexes are encountered on sea path. No other information is given. Not even if hex is empty or not.

IMPORTANT: An invasion is counted on following turn so if conducted on first week of February, a 400 victory point penalty would be assessed against Allies. Invasion has to happen two weeks before February. Meaning, January 1, 8, 15, and 22, an invasion should be launched. January 29 would be too late because invasion would occur in February. An additional requirement is that Allies need ten hexes of control in addition to having a presence on mainland Italy. This last point could become the most challenging aspect.

In 1943-1945 campaign, only Allies have phase for turn one. Germany though usually starts turns. This means, initial (Sicily) invasion happens on the logistic phase of turn two. 

I looked at next week's weather, which is as far as game allows, and looks to be same conditions. Maybe January 22, 1944 will be better.

Best wishes, Kent Kroeckel  

[kentkroeckel]

Invasion mechanics:

I need to first clarify a point I made earlier in a post. I said 40 preparation points was lowest for a ground unit to launch. Wrong. It is 30.

So to restate it clearly; when a ground unit reaches, or still maintains 30 preparation points, it may launch with an active Task Force.

A Task Force still needs 50 preparation points to launch. Any added support unit takes away 10.

I could try to explain the formula for invasion damage but I would be guessing. Ha. I have included manual charts and simplified it for my consumption. This is all in section 16.7

First chart shows tally of numbers when invasion hex is a port or regular coastal hex. Self explanatory. Hexes next to invasion hex is also added. That gives you a number which will destroy amphibious and cargo ships.

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But there is more to add. Weather also gets added to this destructive number. Below is chart that explains this.

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Add this and you get a percent that could prevent an effective invasion. Meaning, do not invade a hex with port and 3 fortification unless there is no other way. Never invade when weather is worse than rain. Allies may have no choice in this matter on Italian D-Day.

Next chart deals with ground units conducting the invasion. Count all the ships damaged / destroyed. This will represent ground unit damage. This is where preparation points do make a big difference. Getting ashore or not really.

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If a unit is at ninety preparation points, then just five percent chance of damage per ship but at 30 preparation points, chance of damage is nearly thirty percent. Huge difference.

My attempt at simplifying and explaining this abstract of WitW.

[kentkroeckel]

January 15, 1944

Victory points: For turn were 11 and game total is 518.

This victory point residual allows Allies to keep Europe air at rest since it is snowing. In last post I mentioned rest did not seem to be impacting much but this turn it really compounded.

Support aircraft have recovered. Reconnaissance, transport, are at 80 + morale.

Naval aircraft too. Torpedo, patrol, and naval only level bombers (NOLB). The same.

Ground attack aircraft, (fighter / tactical bomber) have increased morale to between 60-80.

Escorts for bombers too have gone back to near 80 morale. But most encouraging is level bombers. British have increased to between 60-70. Very good indeed. Below is picture of the level bombers. It took six snapshots to include them all.

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[kentkroeckel]

Continuing with level bombers.

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The six previous snapshots are just for level bombers. Challenging indeed to keep 250 air missions flowing smoothly.

amphibious losses are 104. However, that number is going to increase dramatically because Italian D-Day is about to commence, in rain. Not good for Allies.

European weather: Air is snow so continued rest due to good victory points.
European Ground: Snow with water level at 3 and snow level at 7.

Mediterranean weather: Air is rain.
Mediterranean ground: Light mud with water level at 4.

Axis air phase: German lost 41 aircraft while Allies lost none. Last turn Luftwaffe lost 100 while Allies none. Though this will change due to upcoming invasion.

Next week looks like rain again in Mediterranean so Italian D-Day will launch this week. If Allies knew weather would still be rain next week, when invasion actually occurs, then would have launched last week. However, gained another week of preparation points. One Task Force has 4 damage points still. Below are two pictures showing average state of invading Task Forces.

this is the first time I have conducted an invasion where every hex is occupied. this compounds the challenge of getting ashore.

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Next picture shows the best Allies have in preparation points.

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[kentkroeckel]

It took me a long time to redo the whole Allied air mission makeup. All of this is being done just to support invasion of Italy because it is so important to give every advantage of success to landing units. Only once chance at this since so late in game. Experience is set at 25 instead of 50 for now because I need everyone to fly.

I have never used depot bombing much so this is a first for me on such a scale. Same with rail too. Allie's strategic bombing force has been placed on ground attack and given maximum fuel range. They will be coming in at 15,000 feet and are set for one mission every day. Mediterranean as well as Europe is set on this.

Fighter bomber ground attack is set at 15,000 feet and set for every day. Most are set with the following priority, rail disruption, interdiction, ground unit attack. They are always set at 25 missions a day.

Naval is set at 5,000 feet as usual. Some missions are for Task Force protection while others protect sea region for invasion. For now they are set for one time a day.

Reconnaissance is set at 12,000 feet and 25,000 feet, depending on low or high cameras. Frequency is set at five times a day.

Air superiority is set for both phases and at an altitude of 15,000 feet. It too is daily. I have some fighter bombers, trained as bombers, flying superiority. Needed the extra protection over invasion site, despite 20% penalty. They did not need extended range so have no extra fuel tanks. Makes them fight better.

Weather is going to be brutal but the same holds true for Axis. In addition, muddy conditions should make Axis movement of ground units difficult. Below are four pictures of Allies air missions.

First in naval.

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Next is reconnaissance.

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Next is air superiority.

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Final is some of the ground attack. Every hex of landing site is covered. All rail and paths are also covered.

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[kentkroeckel]

Air results were not as bad as I expected. Allies loss 718 aircraft for turn while Axis loss 173. Very respectable considering what it could have been. Allied Command thought the losses could be more than 2,000 aircraft.

First picture is on day seven of air phase.

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Next three pictures are from reconnaissance. Notice how the invasion beach is completely covered with German units. Metalist did an outstanding design in protecting Italy.

First one is of Sicily ferry section.

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Next is the northern section of south Italian region. Units here will be able to engage invasion site.

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Next is of line of units that Metalist has placed so they can react, whether needed south or north. Very smart indeed. Displayed also shows landing sites west of Rome. Every hex of invasion is covered by Axis unit.

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Final thought for invasion: Units in Mediterranean have been placed on ready, instead of refit. A couple Task Forces do have commandos inside them but they will need an empty hex to deploy.

[kentkroeckel]

First picture is of invasion site. I would call it just one big area because they are next to each other. All but one were contested hexes. Allies started with 264 amphibious capacity but when all six Task Forces and their load launched, there was only 84 shipping left. Was still able to reinforce landing a bit. Just in case there are survivors after first week. Ha.

Attrition hexes broke down as follow. A 9, 8, 6, 6, 3, and 3. Workable.

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Next picture shows airborne hexes. Only two of four could make it in rain. Capacity limited it. Transports are located on islands.

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Next picture is of sea interdiction. Looks good for now, given weather.

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Final picture is of ground interdiction. Some areas got hit good while other not so much. Weather makes it difficult.

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[kentkroeckel]

History:
Meatlist is good at stopping invasions on beachheads. Go a hex or two and then he can make a most effective wall of resistance with just a few German battalions. Add to this, Italian terrain which is made for defense, and collectively this creates a nightmare for Allies. Amphibious ships are destroyed if forced to stay on beaches so a port city must be secured quickly. Metalist is good at using Luftwaffe for this. Port cities always seem a hex or two too far for quick access. Think back to how Sardinia had a hold out of a port city. Add to that, Messina on Sicily. Like I said, Metalist is good at German defense. I would even say deceptively good. Meaning, what looks to be an easy grab of a supply source for Allies never turns out that way.

Conclusion:
Did not want to fight north up Italy because that would be a loosing proposition. Time was running out for Allies. First week when I had set up four Task Forces, I had initially set the invasion location on Italian Boot but changed it. the above reason as to why.

New location:
I put much thought into where the best opportunity would be for success while also having resources to secure the invasion. West of Rome seemed to match best with Allied needs. There are three port cities, each being size 2. There is open terrain to north of landing. Axis units stationed along Italian Boot cannot engage in landing site for 2-3 weeks. Not many German units should be able to complicate invasion from north Italian garrison region. A final benefit was having the air and ground support from Corsica and Sardinia nearby. Using level bombers for depot destruction and rail impediment was only because of snow conditions in Europe. Though it may have made a substantial difference.

Reality:
All this being said, there are still plenty of German units in and near landing zone. Each port city is a 3 fortification. No choice though because all of southern Italy was becoming a fortress.

Personal Note:
This landing was the largest single landing I have ever done, along with the most preparation and resources being committed to a single landing. I do hope the Allied investment for it will bear fruits. Otherwise, there will be a 400 victory point penalty.

[kentkroeckel]

January 22, 1944

Victory Points: For turn were -25 and game total are 493.

amphibious losses were -13 for turn plus many more during invasion. Previous turn losses were 104 but now Amphibious ship losses are at 151. That is another -30. Below is chart.

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Next picture is of pool level. It is down from the near 250 to 215. That is a huge drop in one turn.

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Weather for Europe and Mediterranean is same as last week. Snow up north and rain in Italy. Water level is 4.

Air losses for Axis phase were: 227 for Luftwaffe and 94 for Allies.

Five of six invasion hexes were successful. Two airborne divisions took damage but landed successfully. Two of the three port cities were captured. From south to north they are, Anzio and Lido di Roma. The northern city port of Civitavecchia was the failed hex.

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Final picture is of existing interdiction in the rainy weather. I believe this will make or break the invasion since Allied hexes are now surrounded. This is what Metalist does to stall invasions; surround them with nowhere to expand. Then they wither away under Luftwaffe naval attack.

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