A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. USA.
Pacific. Naval Moves. US East Coast. Air Rebase.
Pacific. Naval Moves. US East Coast. Air Rebase.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. Europe.
Eastern Front. Land Movement. Map.
Eastern Front. Land Movement. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. East Africa.
Asmara, Etheria. Land Movement. Map.
Asmara, Etheria. Land Movement. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. West Africa.
W1-Rabat, Morocco.
(1) No matter how "carefully" I planned things out; I definitely overlooking things (as in Jp defensive ground support to Tungkwan) or outright make a mistake.
(2) And the mistake in this case was not accounting for the woods in the defending hex halving the planned shore bombardment.
(3) The impact was that after application of shore bombardment the blitz odds were +18 vs the planned +21 and, more significantly, the no risk +19.
(4) Also, a subtle but not necessarily insignificant fact was that the AF:DF odds were 14.5:2(+3), which rounded to 15:2 (+3), or +18 B.
(5) Why this was significant was that any "odd" offensive ground support factor would effectively be lost due to halving from the the woods.
(6) For example, 1 in ground support halved to 0.5 would effectively add nothing (i.e., 0.5 + 14.5 = 15 AF, which is what the AF rounded too without 1 factor ground support).
(7) To get the +19B no risk, the CW needed 2+ ground support factors (when none were planned).
(8) In the end, a Stirling L3 with 3 TAC was allocated, which wasted the 3rd TAC factor but did manage to get the +19B no risk odds.
W1-Rabat, Morocco.
(1) No matter how "carefully" I planned things out; I definitely overlooking things (as in Jp defensive ground support to Tungkwan) or outright make a mistake.
(2) And the mistake in this case was not accounting for the woods in the defending hex halving the planned shore bombardment.
(3) The impact was that after application of shore bombardment the blitz odds were +18 vs the planned +21 and, more significantly, the no risk +19.
(4) Also, a subtle but not necessarily insignificant fact was that the AF:DF odds were 14.5:2(+3), which rounded to 15:2 (+3), or +18 B.
(5) Why this was significant was that any "odd" offensive ground support factor would effectively be lost due to halving from the the woods.
(6) For example, 1 in ground support halved to 0.5 would effectively add nothing (i.e., 0.5 + 14.5 = 15 AF, which is what the AF rounded too without 1 factor ground support).
(7) To get the +19B no risk, the CW needed 2+ ground support factors (when none were planned).
(8) In the end, a Stirling L3 with 3 TAC was allocated, which wasted the 3rd TAC factor but did manage to get the +19B no risk odds.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. West Africa.
SW1-Casablanca, Morocco.
(1) Well at least the actual for this one turned out as planned!
SW1-Casablanca, Morocco.
(1) Well at least the actual for this one turned out as planned!
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #3. West Africa.
S2-Rabat, Morocco.
(1) Hey, a second actual as planned ... I'm on a streak! Air Rebase. Map.
S2-Rabat, Morocco.
(1) Hey, a second actual as planned ... I'm on a streak! Air Rebase. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4.
Weather. Actions.
Weather. Actions.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Impulse Planning. Germany.
Active WAR Directives.
(1) German U-boats supported by one Italian Sub Gp in the Faeroes Gap sunk 6 CW CPs and aborted 1 last (axis) impulse.
(2) Though they did lose 1 flotilla (2 BPs) and had two other damaged (2 BPs).
(3) In evaluating the elements of GER-WAR-98, "Interdict Allied CPs", Germany met element A, failed element C; but what about element B.
(4) With (only) 1 abort but with 6 sunk (vs 3+ required), Ge WAR graders decided to give element B an OBE, give a pass and close GER-WAR-98.
(5) Germany's focus this impulse will be on aggressively adding garrison to the Eastern Front frontier.
Active WAR Directives.
(1) German U-boats supported by one Italian Sub Gp in the Faeroes Gap sunk 6 CW CPs and aborted 1 last (axis) impulse.
(2) Though they did lose 1 flotilla (2 BPs) and had two other damaged (2 BPs).
(3) In evaluating the elements of GER-WAR-98, "Interdict Allied CPs", Germany met element A, failed element C; but what about element B.
(4) With (only) 1 abort but with 6 sunk (vs 3+ required), Ge WAR graders decided to give element B an OBE, give a pass and close GER-WAR-98.
(5) Germany's focus this impulse will be on aggressively adding garrison to the Eastern Front frontier.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Impulse Planning. Italy.
Active WAR Directives.
(1) Italy took a combine to take another (one more) shot in the East Med to break allied supply to Malta (i.e., sink RN supply CP).
(2) Italy's has only one more shot as after this both It Sub groups in the East Med will be flipped.
(3) Italy will also use 1 LM of their combine to recapture Benghazi (ITA-WAR-89(E))
(4) Their 2nd LM will most likely be used to retreat the weak LBA Terr in Morocco to a more strategic defensive position.
Active WAR Directives.
(1) Italy took a combine to take another (one more) shot in the East Med to break allied supply to Malta (i.e., sink RN supply CP).
(2) Italy's has only one more shot as after this both It Sub groups in the East Med will be flipped.
(3) Italy will also use 1 LM of their combine to recapture Benghazi (ITA-WAR-89(E))
(4) Their 2nd LM will most likely be used to retreat the weak LBA Terr in Morocco to a more strategic defensive position.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Impulse Planning. Japan.
Attack Planning. W1-Chungking, China. Active WAR Directives.
(1) JPN-WAR-114, "Southern China Combat Operations" -> Yamamoto Army Gp will blitz, take W1-Chungking, destroy/shatter 2 NAT units.
(2) This will (hopefully) clear the way to assault Chunking and then Chengtu.
(3) JPN-WAR-115, "Strategic Bombing Chinese Factories" -> Though Japan's both best strategic bombing wings have been used (for defensive ground support last axis impulse), Japan will use 1 air mission to strat bomb Chungking (2 factories bombed & Ex[PP Kill]=0.5).
(4) JPN-WAR-112, "Northern China Defense" -> Terauchi will reposition his army group to reform his FLOT to best met the his defense requirements.
(5) Also, he'll do what he can to block the 2 raiding/potential raiding Chinese cav (corps & div) in central China.
(6) JPN-WAR-111, "Manchuria, Korean Defense" -> The splintered Japanese forces in Manchuria and Korea will do what they can to stabilize the situation.
(7) Of note, control of MAN Iron RP 67,145 (on the Northern Chinese) bordered changed to Soviet AFTER last turn's production.
(8) This happened because the RP was NOT in Jp ZOC at conquest of Manchuria by the Soviets.
(9) Of note, neither was Port Arthur, which was occupied of Jp air units, but Port Arthur remained Japanese.
(10) Was that a bug or correct?
(11) Back to MAN Iron RP 67,145; the IJA inf div was move, flip control of the RP back to Japanese and then move back to their defensive position.
(12) This will not only flip control back but get the RP flowing again to a Japanese controlled factor.
(13) The situation of Iron RP occupied by Umezu in the Mtns north of the Liaotung Peninsula is also interesting.
(14) After the Soviet breakthrough on impulse #1, the Soviet mech army's ZOC blocked that RP from reaching Port Arthur and getting to Jp controlled factory.
(15) Last impulse, the Soviet mech army moved east into Korea and this reopened the route of the RP to Port Arthur and then to Jp factory.
(16) Needless to say the situation in Manchuria and Korea is dicey followed by the situation in Northern & Central China being maybe a bit less dicey.
Attack Planning. W1-Chungking, China. Active WAR Directives.
(1) JPN-WAR-114, "Southern China Combat Operations" -> Yamamoto Army Gp will blitz, take W1-Chungking, destroy/shatter 2 NAT units.
(2) This will (hopefully) clear the way to assault Chunking and then Chengtu.
(3) JPN-WAR-115, "Strategic Bombing Chinese Factories" -> Though Japan's both best strategic bombing wings have been used (for defensive ground support last axis impulse), Japan will use 1 air mission to strat bomb Chungking (2 factories bombed & Ex[PP Kill]=0.5).
(4) JPN-WAR-112, "Northern China Defense" -> Terauchi will reposition his army group to reform his FLOT to best met the his defense requirements.
(5) Also, he'll do what he can to block the 2 raiding/potential raiding Chinese cav (corps & div) in central China.
(6) JPN-WAR-111, "Manchuria, Korean Defense" -> The splintered Japanese forces in Manchuria and Korea will do what they can to stabilize the situation.
(7) Of note, control of MAN Iron RP 67,145 (on the Northern Chinese) bordered changed to Soviet AFTER last turn's production.
(8) This happened because the RP was NOT in Jp ZOC at conquest of Manchuria by the Soviets.
(9) Of note, neither was Port Arthur, which was occupied of Jp air units, but Port Arthur remained Japanese.
(10) Was that a bug or correct?
(11) Back to MAN Iron RP 67,145; the IJA inf div was move, flip control of the RP back to Japanese and then move back to their defensive position.
(12) This will not only flip control back but get the RP flowing again to a Japanese controlled factor.
(13) The situation of Iron RP occupied by Umezu in the Mtns north of the Liaotung Peninsula is also interesting.
(14) After the Soviet breakthrough on impulse #1, the Soviet mech army's ZOC blocked that RP from reaching Port Arthur and getting to Jp controlled factory.
(15) Last impulse, the Soviet mech army moved east into Korea and this reopened the route of the RP to Port Arthur and then to Jp factory.
(16) Needless to say the situation in Manchuria and Korea is dicey followed by the situation in Northern & Central China being maybe a bit less dicey.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Europe.
Combat Logs.
(1) The entire focus In Europe, with one exception, this impulse was German mobilization east to the Eastern Front.
(2) The exception was (CL-3870), where a German inf div was debarked from the Italian Coast into Tirana, Albania.
(3) This division's tour is temporary until a second line Italian, or German, unit can be found to take over the garrison on Tirana. Map.
Combat Logs.
(1) The entire focus In Europe, with one exception, this impulse was German mobilization east to the Eastern Front.
(2) The exception was (CL-3870), where a German inf div was debarked from the Italian Coast into Tirana, Albania.
(3) This division's tour is temporary until a second line Italian, or German, unit can be found to take over the garrison on Tirana. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Med.
West Med.
West Med.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Med.
East Med (1/2).
East Med (1/2).
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Med.
East Med (2/2). Land Moves. Map.
East Med (2/2). Land Moves. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. The Atlantic.
Faeroes Gap.
Faeroes Gap.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Asian Theater.
Manchurian & Korea Fronts.
Land Movement. Map.
Manchurian & Korea Fronts.
Land Movement. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Asian Theater.
Strategic Bombing. Chungking, China.
(1) Japanese strategic bombing raid misses, leaving only one (more) organized air wing available.
(2) Diversion of Japanese best strategic bomber wings (G3M2 & Ki-21-IIa) last (allied) impulse in defensive ground support has definitely hurt Japanese strategic bombing efforts this turn.
(3) At worse (for China), China has a 60% chance of making through this turn with no production lost due to strategic bombing.
(4) However; as you shall see a bit later, this might be the least of their concern as there's a good chance they'll lose Chungking to Japanese capture this turn!
Strategic Bombing. Chungking, China.
(1) Japanese strategic bombing raid misses, leaving only one (more) organized air wing available.
(2) Diversion of Japanese best strategic bomber wings (G3M2 & Ki-21-IIa) last (allied) impulse in defensive ground support has definitely hurt Japanese strategic bombing efforts this turn.
(3) At worse (for China), China has a 60% chance of making through this turn with no production lost due to strategic bombing.
(4) However; as you shall see a bit later, this might be the least of their concern as there's a good chance they'll lose Chungking to Japanese capture this turn!
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Asian Theater.
W1-Chungking, China.
W1-Chungking, China.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #4. Asian Theater.
China.
Land Moves & Air Rebase. Map.
China.
Land Moves & Air Rebase. Map.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #5. Weather & Actions.
Ronnie
