Combat Logs.
CCP.
- 07-AL-Asian-CCP-CL.png (7.3 KiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-NAT-CL.png (15.04 KiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-Northern-China.png (1.47 MiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-Central-Southern-China.png (1.48 MiB) Viewed 187 times
A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Asian Theater. China.
Combat Logs.
CCP. Nationalists. Northern/Central China. Central/Southern China.
Combat Logs.
CCP. Nationalists. Northern/Central China. Central/Southern China.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Asian Theater. USSR.
Non-Combat Land Moves.
NE1-Port Arthur, Manchuria.
Map.
Non-Combat Land Moves.
- 07-AL-Asian-USSR-LM-Non-Combat-CL.png (16.05 KiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-USSR-NE1-Port-Arthur-CL.png (43.38 KiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-LC-SE1-Port-Arthur.png (239.88 KiB) Viewed 187 times
- 07-AL-Asian-Manchuria-Korea.png (1.46 MiB) Viewed 187 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Start of Impulse.
Turn Continues.
Weather.
Actions, Activities.
Impulse, Initiative Info.
Turn Continues.
- 07-AL-EOT-Continues.png (8.34 KiB) Viewed 182 times
- 08-AX-Weather.png (95.64 KiB) Viewed 182 times
- 08-AX-Actions.png (33.98 KiB) Viewed 182 times
- 08-AX-Impulse-Info.png (70.73 KiB) Viewed 182 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Impulse Planning.
Germany.
(1) Germany's #1 priority is mobilization east vs the Soviet Union, which they will continue to aggressively do this impulse.
(2) Right now no chance of partisans in German controlled territories.
(3) However; as Germany aggressively mobilities vs the USSR, Germany will need to keep an eye on things.
Active War Directives.
Axis Partisan Chance.
Germany.
(1) Germany's #1 priority is mobilization east vs the Soviet Union, which they will continue to aggressively do this impulse.
(2) Right now no chance of partisans in German controlled territories.
(3) However; as Germany aggressively mobilities vs the USSR, Germany will need to keep an eye on things.
Active War Directives.
- 08-AX-WAR-GER.png (26.44 KiB) Viewed 180 times
- 08-AX-Partisan-Chances.png (34.59 KiB) Viewed 180 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Impulse Planning.
Italy.
(1) There's really not much that Italy can do; but they take a land and will make 2 or 3 land moves across the territories that they occupy.
Active War Directives.
Italy.
(1) There's really not much that Italy can do; but they take a land and will make 2 or 3 land moves across the territories that they occupy.
Active War Directives.
- 08-AX-WAR-Italy.png (29.93 KiB) Viewed 180 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Impulse Planning.
Japan.
(1) Last impulse attempt by the Soviets to blitz, breakthrough and capture an ungarrisoned Port Arthur showed Japan how vulnerable that objective is.
(2) Japan would like to take a combine in order to move the FIC vol MIL in Saigon to Port Arthur and close that vulnerability.
(3) However; there's a reasonable chance (?) that Yamamoto's forces can capture Chengtu, which will would close out his campaign, free up his troops & deny China another BP in production (currently at 3).
(4) Even if the assault fails, Yamamoto can effectively isolate Chiang's HQ-I from oil, meaning if he flips, he stays flips.
(5) This significantly lowers the threat of Chiang providing defense HQ support.
(6) Back to Port Arthur, by taking a land (to attack Chengtu) Japan still has 56% of getting another impulse this turn & if not, at least a 64% chance of moving first next turn.
(7) If Japan had take a combine and delayed the assault to take Chengtu, then if the turn had even poor weather possible next turn could make that attempt much more difficult.
(8) The war in Asia (both China & Manchuria) is definitely a brutal war of attrition producing a consistent counterfactual of Japanese and Chinese fighting and Japanese and Soviet fighting.
Active War Directives.
Attack Planning. Chengtu, China.
Japan.
(1) Last impulse attempt by the Soviets to blitz, breakthrough and capture an ungarrisoned Port Arthur showed Japan how vulnerable that objective is.
(2) Japan would like to take a combine in order to move the FIC vol MIL in Saigon to Port Arthur and close that vulnerability.
(3) However; there's a reasonable chance (?) that Yamamoto's forces can capture Chengtu, which will would close out his campaign, free up his troops & deny China another BP in production (currently at 3).
(4) Even if the assault fails, Yamamoto can effectively isolate Chiang's HQ-I from oil, meaning if he flips, he stays flips.
(5) This significantly lowers the threat of Chiang providing defense HQ support.
(6) Back to Port Arthur, by taking a land (to attack Chengtu) Japan still has 56% of getting another impulse this turn & if not, at least a 64% chance of moving first next turn.
(7) If Japan had take a combine and delayed the assault to take Chengtu, then if the turn had even poor weather possible next turn could make that attempt much more difficult.
(8) The war in Asia (both China & Manchuria) is definitely a brutal war of attrition producing a consistent counterfactual of Japanese and Chinese fighting and Japanese and Soviet fighting.
Active War Directives.
- 08-AX-WAR-Japan.png (36.58 KiB) Viewed 179 times
- 08-AX-Asian-Chengtu-AP-CL.png (17.15 KiB) Viewed 179 times
- 08-AX-Asian-Chengtu-AP.png (24.42 KiB) Viewed 179 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Europe.
- 08-AX-Westren-Front-CL.png (33.13 KiB) Viewed 170 times
- 08-AX-Eastern-Front-CL.png (38.42 KiB) Viewed 170 times
- 08-Europe.png (2.8 MiB) Viewed 170 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. The Med.
- 08-AX-Med-CL.png (13.35 KiB) Viewed 170 times
- 08-Med.png (1.37 MiB) Viewed 170 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. The Pacific. NEI.
- 08-AX-Pacific-NEII-CL.png (10.34 KiB) Viewed 170 times
- 08-AX-Pacific-NEI.png (1.29 MiB) Viewed 170 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Manchurian & Korean Fronts.
- 08-AX-Asian-Man-KIOR-Fronts.png (10.33 KiB) Viewed 167 times
- 08-Asian-Manchuria-Korea.png (1.43 MiB) Viewed 167 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Asian Theater. Northern & Central China.
- 08-AX-Asian-CCP-LM-CL.png (10.39 KiB) Viewed 166 times
- 08-AX-Asian-NAT-Centraol-Coastal-Armies.png (15.31 KiB) Viewed 166 times
- 08-Asian-Northern-Central-China.png (1.63 MiB) Viewed 166 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #8. Asian Theater. Army Group Yamamoto.
Non-Combat.
Chengtu, China.
Map.
Non-Combat.
- 08-Asian-AG-Yamamoto-Non-Combat-CL.png (10.68 KiB) Viewed 166 times
- 08-Asian-Chengtu-CL.png (51.68 KiB) Viewed 166 times
- 08-Asian-LC-Chengtu.png (280.42 KiB) Viewed 166 times
- 08-Asian-Southern-Central-China.png (1.53 MiB) Viewed 166 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Start of Impulse.
End of Turn Check (Previous Impulse) & Weather.
Actions & Activities Available.
Impulse & Initiative Info.
End of Turn Check (Previous Impulse) & Weather.
- 09-AL-EOT-Check-Weather.png (16.92 KiB) Viewed 142 times
- 09-AL-Weather.png (108.29 KiB) Viewed 142 times
- 09-AL-Actions-Activities.png (51.73 KiB) Viewed 142 times
- 09-AL-Impulse-Initiative-Info.png (81.12 KiB) Viewed 142 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
CW.
(1) Western Front - escorted Strategic bombing raid vs Lille.
(2) Med (Previously West Africa) - push into Algeria & capture Oran.
(3) Secure rail line from Bechar Coal RP to Oran.
(4) Move organized forces Western Morocco, east & maintain supply line.
(5) East Africa - push UK div & KEN Terr into or towards Ethiopia, maintaining supply lines.
(6) Pacific - considered; but rejected move to eliminate NEI partisan cutting rail between Palembang Oil x 2 & Telok Betong (port).
(7) Rejected due to ~25% risk that 2nd NEI partisan could move adjacent to oil this impulse, turn ends w/o another allied impulse, next turn starts with axis moving first & 2nd NEI partisan takes 2 oil.
(8) East Med - Egy Terr & Fr Cav move west at full speed towards the open Libyan border & Cyrenaica.
Active WAR.
CW.
(1) Western Front - escorted Strategic bombing raid vs Lille.
(2) Med (Previously West Africa) - push into Algeria & capture Oran.
(3) Secure rail line from Bechar Coal RP to Oran.
(4) Move organized forces Western Morocco, east & maintain supply line.
(5) East Africa - push UK div & KEN Terr into or towards Ethiopia, maintaining supply lines.
(6) Pacific - considered; but rejected move to eliminate NEI partisan cutting rail between Palembang Oil x 2 & Telok Betong (port).
(7) Rejected due to ~25% risk that 2nd NEI partisan could move adjacent to oil this impulse, turn ends w/o another allied impulse, next turn starts with axis moving first & 2nd NEI partisan takes 2 oil.
(8) East Med - Egy Terr & Fr Cav move west at full speed towards the open Libyan border & Cyrenaica.
Active WAR.
- 09-AL-WAR-CW.png (28.66 KiB) Viewed 141 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
USA.
(1) Really don't see anything that the US needs to do.
(2) Taking a combine just in case something was missed; but likely nothing was.
Active WAR.
USA.
(1) Really don't see anything that the US needs to do.
(2) Taking a combine just in case something was missed; but likely nothing was.
Active WAR.
- 09-AL-WAR-USA.png (26.57 KiB) Viewed 141 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
Nationalist.
(1) Obviously Chiang and Inf corps will remain (fixed) in Chengtu.
(2) In central/northern China - cav corps, garr army, cav div also will remain fixed.
(3) So, all Nationalist forces are to remain on current positions & entrench deeper as possible.
Active WAR.
Nationalist.
(1) Obviously Chiang and Inf corps will remain (fixed) in Chengtu.
(2) In central/northern China - cav corps, garr army, cav div also will remain fixed.
(3) So, all Nationalist forces are to remain on current positions & entrench deeper as possible.
Active WAR.
- 09-AL-WAR-NAT.png (7.96 KiB) Viewed 141 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
CCP.
(1) Move to threaten to isolate the OOS 23rd IJA inf army in the Taihang Mts.
(2) Also to threaten to "flank" 3 OOS & 2 flipped armies east of Japanese controlled Tungkwan.
Active WAR.
-- None --
CCP.
(1) Move to threaten to isolate the OOS 23rd IJA inf army in the Taihang Mts.
(2) Also to threaten to "flank" 3 OOS & 2 flipped armies east of Japanese controlled Tungkwan.
Active WAR.
-- None --
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
USSR
(1) Rail Mtn corps from Eastern to Asian front with a shift next turn to capture Manchurian Iron RP 67,105 on the northern Chinese border.
(2) Zhukov has ordered a shift away from taking Korea and, in true Soviet fashion, orders his available organized forces (4 armies) to attack Umezu & capture Iron RP 68,151 on which he's defending.
(3) This will be another low odds combat with potentially big payoffs for the Soviets with moderate risk.
(4) This actual may the Soviets best chance to capture that RP.
(5) The question for Umezu; will be maximize the chance of keeping that RP & his own destruction vs maximizing the chance of saving his HQ-I?
(6) The risk/reward BP values given in the CL below, called immediate risk/reward, because it includes the gain/loss of RP & one turn production.
(7) Specifically IRR = Ex[BP Kill] - Ex[BP Loss] + 2 x PWIN; PWIN gives the chance of the Soviets capturing the RP, which is multiple by 2 because it's also the chance of Japan losing that production.
(8) Question (or Poll) - If you were the Japanese which branch would you select? Specifically, (a) would you have Umezu HQ-I provide -1.5 defensive HQ support and (b) would you choose to fight assault or blitz?
Active WAR.
Attack Planning.
USSR
(1) Rail Mtn corps from Eastern to Asian front with a shift next turn to capture Manchurian Iron RP 67,105 on the northern Chinese border.
(2) Zhukov has ordered a shift away from taking Korea and, in true Soviet fashion, orders his available organized forces (4 armies) to attack Umezu & capture Iron RP 68,151 on which he's defending.
(3) This will be another low odds combat with potentially big payoffs for the Soviets with moderate risk.
(4) This actual may the Soviets best chance to capture that RP.
(5) The question for Umezu; will be maximize the chance of keeping that RP & his own destruction vs maximizing the chance of saving his HQ-I?
(6) The risk/reward BP values given in the CL below, called immediate risk/reward, because it includes the gain/loss of RP & one turn production.
(7) Specifically IRR = Ex[BP Kill] - Ex[BP Loss] + 2 x PWIN; PWIN gives the chance of the Soviets capturing the RP, which is multiple by 2 because it's also the chance of Japan losing that production.
(8) Question (or Poll) - If you were the Japanese which branch would you select? Specifically, (a) would you have Umezu HQ-I provide -1.5 defensive HQ support and (b) would you choose to fight assault or blitz?
Active WAR.
- 09-AL-WAR-USSR.png (26.99 KiB) Viewed 132 times
- 09-AL-Asian-USSR-AP-CL.png (27.44 KiB) Viewed 132 times
- 09-AL-Asian-USSR-AP.png (35.31 KiB) Viewed 132 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #9. East Africa.
- 09-AL-East-Africa-CL.png (15.9 KiB) Viewed 120 times
- 09-AL-East-Africa.png (1.38 MiB) Viewed 120 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Med.
- 09-AL-Med-CL.png (26.84 KiB) Viewed 120 times
- 09-AL-Med-East-Med.png (597.51 KiB) Viewed 120 times
- 09-AL-Med-West-Med.png (924.35 KiB) Viewed 120 times
Ronnie