No Brexit, No Problem! 23/8/16

[fitzpatv]

Balance of Forces

This is one of a pair of scenarios depicting a Russian attack on the Baltic States in 2016, with the West potentially distracted by the US elections and Britain’s vote on EU membership. As I’m playing the Command Live scenarios (roughly) in alphabetical order as the default sides, this left me playing the easier of the two alternatives from a NATO perspective. In this version, the UK voted to stay in the EU and there was a unified and prompt NATO response to the Russian onslaught.

To achieve surprise, Russia only commits forces already in-theatre, with no build-up from elsewhere. This means three regiments of Flankers and Fencers and a full-scale sortie from the Baltic Fleet’s two destroyers, six modern frigates, PCFGs, corvettes and SSKs. A mechanised division attacks by land, but this is not represented in the game. Russia also deploys large numbers of SAMs, including Growler and Gladiator/Giant systems, around Kaliningrad and along the borders of the Baltic States and batteries of SSMs in the former Eastern German enclave, which sits nastily on the flank of any NATO bid to reinforce Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The declared key to victory for NATO is to prevent Russia from ‘gaining air superiority over the Baltics’ (undefined) and to keep a destroyer stationed off the W coast of Lithuania and Latvia while preventing the Russians from doing the same. Apparently, an aggressive response, doing damage, will encourage wavering NATO allies to commit forces to the fray.

Aircraft Damage rules do not apply, so all hits on planes are fatal.

At the outset, you do not have all that many assets with which to resist the Russians and many of these are readying. Importantly, the Arleigh Burke DDG Ross is off Liepaja in Latvia with a large number of SAMs aboard – she will need them!. To her W and NW are the SSN Missouri, feeling uncomfortable in shallow waters which negate her towed array, the Dutch SSK Zeeleeuw, which has long-ranged Mk48 torpedoes and the modern, well-armed Norwegian FFG Thor Heyerdahl.

Also in this area are sundry Baltic States minesweepers and minelayers, with another minesweeper in the E Baltic between Estonia and Finland. The Lithuanians have three Harpoon-armed PCFGs and a Penguin-carrying MTB readying at Klaipeda.

Between Denmark and Germany and ready to move E are a second Arleigh Burke (USS Donald Cook) and the British FFG Northumberland. Otherwise, there are a number of British, German, Danish, Polish, Swedish and Finnish vessels which start uncommitted and under AI control.

Stationed in the Baltics are four British Typhoons at Amari in Estonia and four Portuguese F-16s at Siauliai in Lithuania. All have AMRAAM C-5s and are grimly aware that they will be heavily outnumbered in the initial exchanges. There are also a number of Baltic States utility aircraft with no combat value and some Rayrider and Mistral MANPADs defending some of the key installations.

Elsewhere, the US has a formidable force of F-15s at Lakenheath in England, supported by tankers at nearby Mildenhall. However, only four of the 57 Eagles start ready.

There is a Sentry aloft over Northern Germany with two in reserve, 22 attack-mode F-16s (some readying) at Spangdahlem and 13 F-22s (four ready) with tankers at Ramstein. Anything else (and there’s potentially plenty) depends on triggering activation.

Assessment and Planning

It was pretty obvious that the Russians would attack easy targets in the Baltics while using their assets at Kaliningrad to isolate the area from help. There are numerous bridges, dams and radars in Lithuania which presumably score points for the player if they take the Russian side and which are very hard for NATO to defend, given their lack of initial forces in the sector and the presence of long-ranged Russian SAMs.

Keeping USS Ross afloat likewise seemed a challenge, given the numbers of ship- and sub-launched missiles, SSMs and airstrikes Russia could potentially bring to bear on her.

Growlers from Kaliningrad could potentially cross the Baltic, so any aerial reinforcements would have to approach Estonia via Norway and Sweden, with a tanker station between Oslo and Stockholm.

We didn’t know how aggressive the Russian fighters would be, especially as the front-line Flankers and Fulcrums could potentially be supported by Foxhounds with lethal Arrow missiles should their separate PVO command let them off the leash. We would need to keep careful watch on this and protect our tankers and AEW planes.

It seemed best to launch all ready ships starting in port, as ships are less vulnerable at sea than in harbours which can be destroyed by Iskander strikes.

As far as possible, I evacuated all ready Baltic non-combat aircraft to Kuopio in Finland and Visby in Sweden.

All radars in the Baltics were turned-off save for one at Muhu in Estonia, which could cover the whole area of operations in the region.

The Action

23/8/16 06:00Z: Russia started as Unfriendly and hostilities did not begin immediately, giving me the chance to fly-out the Baltic non-combat aircraft that were ready.

We detected lots of Stooge and Improved Styx SSM batteries in Kaliningrad, along with two Growler and four Gladiator/Giant sites. An AGI was shadowing Ross and three ships, probably Parchim corvettes, were moving W from Kronstadt into Estonian waters. The Baltic Fleet soon issued forth from Kaliningrad, leaving Ross needing to move quickly enough to keep out of most of their missiles’ range until help could arrive, accepting the submarine ambush risk. Zeeleeuw moved at Creep to cover the waters ahead of the DDG.

There was a crazy issue with USS Missouri, which insisted on going RTB to Kiel in Germany, countermanding every attempt I made to order her back into action. Admittedly, her TLAMs were useless because all of Russia, Kaliningrad and Belarus were exclusion zones that prohibited attacking anything therein, but she still had good sonar, Harpoons and torpedoes. All I could do was have her come to a full stop, albeit facing the wrong way…

Just after 06:30Z, the Russians fired four Sunburns from the Sovremennys at Thor Heyerdahl. This took some of the heat off Ross and the Norwegian ship was able to parry this attack and a follow-up. The other Russian ships within range attacked Ross, supported by a Lada-class SSK to her N, which loosed some Sizzlers. For whatever reason, the Stooge batteries at Kaliningrad did not join in and the Russian Air Force was occupied elsewhere. Ross stopped all of these atatcks with her SAMs, illustrating how hard it is to kill a US AEGIS destroyer. Her guns battered the AGI, leaving it dead in the water, while her Harpoons, supported by more from the sortying Lithuanian PCFG Zemaitis (which then RTB’d to Klaipeda to reload) hit two Steregushchiy-class FFGs. The Latvian minelayer Virsaitis got in the way of an enemy missile and was sunk for the loss of 2VP.

Meanwhile, numerous Flankers and Fencers intruded into Baltic States airspace. The four British Typhoons and four Portuguese F-16s concentrated on defending Estonia, the latter re-basing to Amari and, in a manually-intensive duel, downed two Flankers (1VP each) without loss. Armed with Adders or high-end Alamos, the Russians were able to fire first and mostly outrun the AMRAAM C-5s loosed at 25nm in response. The NATO fighters prioritised survival and were able to nullify the Adders by diving below their engagement floor. Having radars switched-off thwarted several Fencers which were circling with ARMs primed.

07:00Z: Our CAP over the Baltics was exhausted for now, with the first relieving F-15s and F-22s still approaching Norway and Denmark.

Flankers pursued the last airborne Portuguese fighter to Amari. The Falcon miraculously escaped by hitting the deck, keeping out of Archer range and luring two of the Flankers into the clutches of the Mistral teams around the airbase, which duly downed them.

All this left Amari vulnerable to attack planes and the Russians tried to take advantage, sending-in six Fencers with iron bombs. These did some damage to a taxiway but were all clobbered by the Mistrals. Bart would have been proud of the Estonian MANPAD teams!

Other Russian aircraft hit the bridges and a dam in Lithuania, also destroying two radars. The idea seemed to be to isolate Lithuania from any land counterattack via Poland. Presumably, the main thrust of the Russian ground forces was from the East. In this version of the scenario, all this cost us no VP.

The Lithuanian MTB Selis finished the crippled AGI with a Penguin for 10VP.

Thor Heyerdahl’s RGM-184 missiles wiped-out a flotilla of four Nanuchkas before they could get within range of any NATO ships. 40 more VP. More scored two hits on the FFG Neustrashimy, despite a spoof and malfunction. Heyerdahl was then told to RTB to Klaipeda by the AI, having used her main armament. I went along with this, but changed her base to Kiel, which was safer.

By now, the leading F-15s and F-22s had refuelled over Sweden and were continuing to Estonia. AI-controlled German fighters did not help by using the tankers.

08:00Z: The North Atlantic Council issued a strong statement, promising military support for the Baltic States.

We had a number of attack planes at Spangdahlem and Lakenheath which had AGM-158s but, as these were only useful against land targets, I had to swap them for shorter-ranged GBU-54s.

Poland committed most of its forces to NATO, though her submarines and some support aircraft stayed under national control. This released a couple of Perry FFGs, one already at sea, three PCFGs at Gdynia port and plenty of F-16s and Fulcrums. Unfortunately, the base at Malbork, in particular, was too close to the Russian Growler sites and it was best to keep the fighters there grounded except in emergencies. The Poles also had some old but long-ranged Gammon SAMs usefully placed.

Russia began scoring a VP every few SECONDS (!!) for having air superiority over the Baltics. How this was calculated remained unclear, but I eventually worked-out that I needed to have at least one aircraft aloft over one of the three republics at all times from 08:00Z. By the time I’d verified this, I’d lost 25VP.

Despite assurances, some Polish Seasprites at Gdynia proved NOT to have been released to NATO command and could not join the frigate Kosciusko.

We were told that Norway had committed forces to ward the North Cape, but this had no effect on the game.
Britain released six Typhoons at RAF Coningsby. As suggested, I started moving these forward to Cewice in Poland. The helicopter carrier Ocean and DDG Defender, off Rostock in Germany, were also made available and I just managed to RTB a chopper before the AI crashed it for lack of fuel.

Denmark followed suit by providing a squadron of F-16s with AMRAAM Bs at Skrydstrup. As suggested by the message, I began ferrying these forward to Bornholm. The FFG Iver Huitfeldt joined the other NATO ships moving E to engage the Baltic Fleet.

Germany provided three FFGs and some Eurofighters and Tornadoes. The Eurofighters at Neuburg, near Munich, could have been moved-up to Malbork, but the Growler threat rendered such a redeployment unwise.

All this necessitated a large-scale Doctrine-setting exercise in mid-game. I also had to stop four Polish F-16s from flying all the way from Lodz to Sweden to partake of our tankers. The Falcons then had to land in Sweden, as they were not capable of getting home without refuelling. The four German Eurofighters which had already used the tankers joined the stream of fighters heading for Estonia.

Sweden then committed a mixture of fighter and attack Gripens and two corvettes. Some of the Gripens had Meteors, adding usefully to our fighter strength, while others were loaded with stand-off anti-shipping missiles.

Finland chose not to enter the fray (officially) at this stage. However, this did not stop the AI-controlled Finns loosing SSMs from ashore at the three Parchims off the Estonian coast, sinking the lot despite the attentions of Russian Gammon SAMs.

A flock of MALDs (decoys with far-superior range and endurance to the old TALDs) arrived over Kaliningrad and began orbiting without attracting much attention from the Russian defences.

The Russians mounted a stand-off strike with Kryptons at Gdynia port, sinking the FFG Kosciusko for 7VP and two AI-controlled SSKs (no VP) before they could sail.

The Lithuanian PCFG Dzukas sortied and sank the Sovremenny Nastoychivyy with Harpoons for 15VP.

Arriving F-15s and F-22s clashed with a swarm of Flankers over Estonia. As before, it was a cagey duel, with both sides running and diving to avoid each others’ missiles. The Flankers were hard to kill, but we downed two without loss.
Meanwhile, the Polish PCFGs Orkan, Grom and Piorun issued from Gdynia and joined with six HARM-toting F-16s from Spangdahlem to batter the tiring Baltic Fleet, sinking the second Sovremenny, a Neustrashimy and three Steregushchiys. A couple of Flankers were downed by the Polish Gammons while trying vainly to protect their ships and six Helixes went down with their vessels.

At this point (perhaps because both Sovremennys had been sunk), the game ended in a NATO victory, even though the score of +160 was only rated Average. Had it not done so, the rest of the Baltic Fleet’s surface ships would soon have been sunk by incoming missiles, while the Flankers over Estonia were in retreat due to lack of fuel or ammo.

NATO lost an FFG, 2 SSKs, a minelayer, a dam, 15 bridges and 4 radars. No NATO aircraft were lost all game.
Russia lost 2 DDGs, 4 FFGs, 3 FFLs, 4 PCFGs, an AGI, 8 Flankers, 6 Fulcrums (to causes unknown but probably fuel), 6 Fencers and 6 choppers.

Overall, this is a much more complex scenario than the Briefing suggests and, for the few hours it lasted, the gameplay was intense. The player has a lot to do at once and it took-up most of my attention manually controlling the air battle over Estonia, with significant distractions such as overcoming the buggy nature of in-flight refuelling over Sweden and trying to organise strikes on the Baltic Fleet while keeping USS Ross afloat.

There are some issues that could usefully be addressed (though I suspect they won’t be). Air superiority over the Baltic States is not clearly defined and it cost me useful VP while I was working it out and getting the requisite fighter airborne. USS Missouri’s eccentric behaviour was the main outright bug (though I suppose it might have reflected the US Government-in-transition’s reluctance to risk a major asset).

I’m not sure if I want to play the other version of the scenario (‘You Brexit, You Fix It!’) which presumes a much less unified Western response. It probably isn’t impossible, as I didn’t need most of the reinforcements I received in the last hour, with only the three Polish PCFGs making a major contribution. My main qualm is a reluctance to go through all the set-up again. Anyhow, there are several more LIVE scenarios for me to play before I have to make that decision.

[arockorsomething]

The issue with the submarines and ships returning to base is because of the "withdraw and redeploy" orders under doctrine. Just change it all to ignore and it will be fine. This and the other BREXIT scenario are the only ones I've had this problem with.

[Gunner98]

The Withdraw and redeploy doctrine is set up to help the AI side. One of the difficulties in setting up a two-sided scenario. I am not sure why the USS Missouri would be impacted by that though.

Bart

[fitzpatv]

Yes, I was puzzled by the Missouri's being affected like that myself. She was fully-armed and combat-ready, so it has to be a bug. I rationalised it in the report by suggesting that the US Government wouldn't have wanted such a valuable asset to be endangered with a crucial election campaign in progress. I guess the crew might have been fatigued from a long patrol. In truth, it didn't matter much. Of course, placing an SSN in such shallow waters, where her towed array was useless, wasn't the wisest move in the first place.

The Thor Heyerdahl's decision to withdraw made sense in that she'd used her main armament and depleted her SAMs stopping the Russian attacks. However, Kiel made much more sense than sailing into the middle of the storm at Klaipeda.

I was able to correct that little problem in-game by changing her home base. As regular readers of my AARs will know, I have never used the Editor and regard doing so while playing as a bit unethical. I prefer to play scenarios as designed, within the rules (though it doesn't stop me complaining about bugs and issues )

[fitzpatv]

Then again, I could have altered the Withdraw and Redeploy instructions in Doctrine without using the Editor - I think. I did have a look at the time and couldn't find the right place to do it, but perhaps I didn't look hard enough.

[arockorsomething]

The withdraw and redeploy is a page under doctrine like WRA and EMCON. As is said this is the only scenario where I've needed to touch it since it's the only scenario where its done something weird