A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn.

Reinforcements.

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Trade Agreements.

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East Africa. Post Reinforcements.
(1) Wavell is fit to be tied with the failure of Great Britain's intelligence services "overlooking" Eretria's Terr reinforcements.
(2) Though, push back from White Hall in that if Wavell had execute their WAR directive last turn, Great Britain's intelligence "failure" wouldn't be an issue!
(3) There's a lot of figure pointing and blaming; however, it's going to be the common UK and AUS solider that's likely to bare the brunt of this Strategic failure.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn. Axis WAR Directives.

Eastern Front. Nazi-Soviet Pact.

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Germany.

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Italy.

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Japan.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn. USA.

WAR Directives.
(1) US is in their maximum tension category of [24-31]; specifically at 30 in both pools.
(2) Therefore; the US will NOT voluntary choose anymore options.
(3) The focus for the US in entry is to get DOW vs Japan to 70% then successfully DOW Japan (USA-WAR-40).
(4) This means that the US needs entry vs Japan of 44 or higher.
(5) Working the chit entry number, assuming all future US EOT chit draws go to Jp entry; at 11+ in chit total is required.
(6) Looking at the average chit distributions for 1941 (2 turns & 2 draws left) & 1942 (2 draws per turn); an expected 4 chit draws (Jan/Feb 1942) gets the required entry.
(7) This means a Jan/Feb 1942 US entry with significant variation (i.e., Jp capture Chinese cities & US better/worse than expected chit draws).
(8) Until then (i.e., at war & active) the US will have to allocate their 3 individual ship/CP moves per impulse to best support allied convoy escorts in the North Atlantic, East Coast and establish the needed CP supply line to Greenland & Iceland.

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US DOW.

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US Entry Options.

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US Entry Chit Distributions.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn. CW, Nationalist & CCP War Directives.

CW.

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Nationalist.

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CCP.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn. USSR.

(1) In an interesting twist of priorities, the USSR in Asian is NOT to capture any additional Japanese held RPs (this turn at least).
(2) The rationale is that the USSR wishes to remain active in order to use their full land moves and a capture of additional RP would allow Japan to force a peace with the USSR, making the USSR neutral (again).
(3) The Soviets on the Eastern Front wish to maintain sufficient garrison to prevent Germany from breaking their neutrality pact through this turn and the start of next turn.
(4) Then mid to late next turn (14 Nov/Dec 1941), during snow hopefully, the Soviets plan to move the majority of their forward based troops back from the frontier and into more hospitable defensive positions.
(5) Also, in Asian (next turn), the Soviets hope to start railing Zhukov and other high valuable units to the Eastern Front.
(6) While all this may seem a bit gamey I can justify this from a counterfactual historical perspective, which is secret negotiations between Japan & the Soviets are underway.
(7) And the Soviets are negotiating in bad faith to keep the war going and have an excuse for Germany as to their mobilizations and maneuvers on the Eastern Front.
(8) That is, all their military stuff going on in East Europe is really in support of their hot war with Japan.

WAR Directives.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Start of Turn.

Initiative.

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Axis #1. Weather.

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Asian. China.
(1) Rain over China puts the majority of Japanese units in China out of supply.
(2) Chengtu is safe for now (but with 50% chance of fine weather next pair; maybe not for the turn).
(3) Regardless, I'd say Japan is in a pickle!

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[Orm]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #12.

Combat Logs.
(1) Turn does end (barley) and only because all 3 axis major powers passed.

Definite proof that things go very bad for Axis when they pass during the 1941 summer.

[rkr1958]

Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #12.

Combat Logs.
(1) Turn does end (barley) and only because all 3 axis major powers passed.

Definite proof that things go very bad for Axis when they pass during the 1941 summer.

+1

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1. Impulse Planning.

Weather & Actions.

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Germany.
(1) Germany takes a combine.
(2) German U-boats with support from Italian subs will attack unescorted allied convoys in the (a) North Atlantic, (b) Faeroes Gap and (c) Cape St. Vincent.
(3) Remainder of Germany's air & land moves will be used to (a) optimize Reich Air Defense assets and (b) start organizing Army Groups on the Eastern Front.

Italy.
(1) Italy takes a naval.
(2) Italian subs will support German U-boat attacks on allied Atlantic convoys.
(3) Italy will send out a protected North Africa reinforcement task force to the West Med.
(4) Reinforcements will include a garrison corps & inf div.
(5) Italy will also secure supply to North Africa through the West Med.
(6) And Italy will secure RP shipment & supply through the Italian Coast.

Japan.
(1) Japan takes a combine.
(2) Japan will reinforce via direct naval move Port Arthur with WP inf army & mtn div.
(3) Japan will use their 3 LMs in Northern China to shore up their FLOT & prevent isolation.
(4) Yamashita will be embarked from Manchuria for reassignment to Northern China.
(5) Japan's air moves will be used to better position their air corps.

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Asian/Pacific Theater. China Seea, Manchuria & Korea.

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01-AX-Asian-Manchuria-Korea.png (1.74 MiB) Viewed 110 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Asian Theater. China.

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01-AX-Asian-China.png (1.64 MiB) Viewed 107 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. The Med.

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01-AX-Med-NM.png (2.2 MiB) Viewed 106 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Europe.

Eastern Front. Combat Logs.

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Western Front. Reich/Italy Air Defense.

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Map.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

Cape St. Vincent.

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Round 1.

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Round 2.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

North Atlantic.

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01-AX-Atlantic-North-Atlantic-NC-1.png (193.31 KiB) Viewed 102 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

Faeroes Gap.

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01-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1.png (187.08 KiB) Viewed 102 times

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01-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1c.png (325.76 KiB) Viewed 102 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic. Reorg.

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01-AX-Atlantic-HQ-Reorg.png (1005.72 KiB) Viewed 98 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

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Weather.

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Actions, Activities Available.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

Atlantic Threats & Risk Matrix.
(1) Reorg of the It Sub Gp in St-Nazaire put the Bay of Biscay & Faeroes Gap at risk in addition to increasing the active risk in the North Atlantic & Cape St. Vincent.
(2) Instead of having just to worry about the current threat in the North Atlantic & Cape St. Vincent; the RN and French navies (because of the reorg) also have to (or should) deal with the sub risks in two other sea areas.
(3) This pull naval resources from other missions.

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USA.
(4) US will use 3 naval moves to support convoy escorts in the North Atlantic.
(5) Establishing supply to Greenland (Cape Farwell), which requires 2 US NMs, and then to Iceland (Reykjavik), which requires a 3 US NM will just have to wait until the Euro-Axis Atlantic U-boat/Sub threat is handled.
(6) However; US will rebase 3 of their long range land based nav Gps (PBY-5, A-29, PBM-1) to Cape Farwell, enough though they'll be out of supply and can't fly.
(7) But once supply is established not only can they fly (during naval air) to North Atlantic[0] (i.e., escort CPs); the PBY-5 has the range(22) to be able to react to North Atlantic[0].
(8) Once the US has established supply to Cape Farwell, Greenland; the LBA Nav Gps will add 6 a2s (6 ASW in fine, 3 in rain/snow) to North Atlantic[0] CP escorts.

Active WAR Directives.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

CW.
(1) CW is at full production & with +1 oil (3 total) saved to the UK.
(2) However; MWIF isn't working CW production correctly as the 1 BP lend lease to France isn't getting through.
(3) I'm using the Belgian Congo RP to UK as the surrogate for that lend lease trade BP.
(4) The CW should/will get this fixed by moving an additional CP in each of Gulf of Guinea, Cape Verde Basin, Cape St. Vincent & Faeroes Gap.
(5) Note that the Lend Lease BP actually will go UK -> Bay of Biscay (not Faeroes Gap) -> Cape St. Vincent -> Cape Verde Basin -> Gulf of Guinea -> Belgian Congo.
(6) Effectively a RP that's routing from the US to the UK from East Coast -> North Atlantic -> Bay of Biscay -> UK, will be routed through the Faeroes Gap to the UK freeing up the necessary CP.
(7) The RN, RAF supported by the French navy will raid and challenge the Italian and German naval & air forces in the West Med.
(8) The objective of the raid is attrition of Italian and German naval and air units there.
(9) The lone RN Sub Gp in play (based Malta) will raid the Italian Coast.
(10) The only threat to the East Med is from Italian Nav Gps, which the RN can address by getting a fighter wing to Malta; but no necessarily this impulse.
(11) The CW is likely to ignore that threat for now and fully commit to the West Med and Italian Coast raids including possibly surface units into the Italian Coast.
(12) The Queens (base in Cape Town) will move the Cape Town MIL to the Pacific for eventual garrison of Hong Kong.
(13) The Queens don't have the range to reach the China Sea; but could RTB to Hong Kong with the RSA MIL at the end of turn (or before).
(14) The CW doesn't have supply established to Hong Kong (need a CP in the China Sea to do so).
(15) However; the CW doesn't have a CP in port that can reach the China Sea.
(16) The CW will send a CP from Cape Town to the Arabian Sea, RTB the CP Arabian Sea to Singapore and reorg at the end of this turn.
(17) Therefore the CW won't be able to get the Hong Kong garrison in place until next turn (14 Nov/Dec 1941).
(18) The Queens next turn will then RTB to Auckland, New Zealand and then get that MIL to Rabul two turns from now (i.e., 15 Jan/Feb 1942).
(19) CW & French long range plans for the Med is to eject the Italians from North Africa, West Med and establish a presence on Sardana, and eventually Sicily or even mainland Italy.

Active WAR Directives.

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Production.

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RN Sea Lift & Potential Cargos.

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