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A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #8. Europe.
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- 08-AL-Western-CL.png (26.45 KiB) Viewed 364 times
- 08-AL-Europe.png (3.49 MiB) Viewed 364 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 11. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Weather.
(1) Turn continues (80%) from last impulse (Allied #8).
(2) Horrible weather turns more horrible!
(3) Winter over Europe arrives early this year.
(1) Turn continues (80%) from last impulse (Allied #8).
(2) Horrible weather turns more horrible!
(3) Winter over Europe arrives early this year.
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- 11-AX-Weather-Map.png (83.2 KiB) Viewed 362 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Impulse Planning.
Weather Report.
Actions, Activities Available.
Initiative, Impulse Info.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Impulse Planning. Germany (1/2).
Active WAR Directives.
Atlantic Reassessment.
(1) Though, OKL with OKH concurrence marked BOA WAR directive for this turn as a fail & closed it last axis impulse; Gross Adm Donitz got OKL to reassess the feasibility of U-boat/Sub "sorties" in the North Atlantic and/or Bay of Biscay.
(2) The reassessment (i.e., analysis) indicates that even if the subs are successfully at finding and forcing a sub combat (20 to 27%), that any CPs sunk/aborted (3-4 sunk + 0-2 aborted) would come at a significant cost to the German U-boat & Italian Sub fleet.
(3) Therefore; this assessment when no further than OKL and Donitz is ordered to keep his U-boats (& attached Italian Subs) out of harms way.
Active WAR Directives.
- 11-AX-WAR-GER.png (24.52 KiB) Viewed 330 times
(1) Though, OKL with OKH concurrence marked BOA WAR directive for this turn as a fail & closed it last axis impulse; Gross Adm Donitz got OKL to reassess the feasibility of U-boat/Sub "sorties" in the North Atlantic and/or Bay of Biscay.
(2) The reassessment (i.e., analysis) indicates that even if the subs are successfully at finding and forcing a sub combat (20 to 27%), that any CPs sunk/aborted (3-4 sunk + 0-2 aborted) would come at a significant cost to the German U-boat & Italian Sub fleet.
(3) Therefore; this assessment when no further than OKL and Donitz is ordered to keep his U-boats (& attached Italian Subs) out of harms way.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Impulse Planning. Germany (2/2).
(1) With nothing really pressing for the remainder of this turn, OKH takes a look at the partisan risk.
(2) There's a 4% risk of 1 partisan in France and 5% of 1 in Yugoslavia.
(3) The 4% risk in France is in non-compliance with GER-WAR-105 (A); however, the 5% risk in Yugoslavia is in compliance with GER-WAR-105 (E).
(4) To deal with France, Italy will rebase their fighter wing Genoa covering (vs strat) Turin to Nice, which still covers Turin.
(5) However; this rebase will no longer cover Milan, which isn't an issue this impulse or next (if applicable) due to storm.
(6) If the turn continues to another axis impulse and the weather clears (<20%), then this fighter wing will have to rebase back to Genoa to cover both Turin & Milan and Germany will just have to accept the 4% partisan risk in France.
(7) However; if the turn ends before another axis impulse (80%), then the Italian fighter wing in West Med[0] will RTB to Genoa to cover both cities.
(8) Though in compliance, Germany will temporality rebase their Ju 52 ATR wing, currently on the Soviet frontier, to Yugoslavia to drive partisan chance to 0% in that country.
(9) Given that Germany very likely won't be able to break their pact with the USSR until the start of the 1942, Germany has time to rebase this ATR wing back to the frontier before the 1942 launch of Barbarossa.
Partisan Chance (vs Germany)
France.
Yugoslavia.
(1) With nothing really pressing for the remainder of this turn, OKH takes a look at the partisan risk.
(2) There's a 4% risk of 1 partisan in France and 5% of 1 in Yugoslavia.
(3) The 4% risk in France is in non-compliance with GER-WAR-105 (A); however, the 5% risk in Yugoslavia is in compliance with GER-WAR-105 (E).
(4) To deal with France, Italy will rebase their fighter wing Genoa covering (vs strat) Turin to Nice, which still covers Turin.
(5) However; this rebase will no longer cover Milan, which isn't an issue this impulse or next (if applicable) due to storm.
(6) If the turn continues to another axis impulse and the weather clears (<20%), then this fighter wing will have to rebase back to Genoa to cover both Turin & Milan and Germany will just have to accept the 4% partisan risk in France.
(7) However; if the turn ends before another axis impulse (80%), then the Italian fighter wing in West Med[0] will RTB to Genoa to cover both cities.
(8) Though in compliance, Germany will temporality rebase their Ju 52 ATR wing, currently on the Soviet frontier, to Yugoslavia to drive partisan chance to 0% in that country.
(9) Given that Germany very likely won't be able to break their pact with the USSR until the start of the 1942, Germany has time to rebase this ATR wing back to the frontier before the 1942 launch of Barbarossa.
Partisan Chance (vs Germany)
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Impulse Planning. Italy.
(1) Italy's 1 air move of their land will be used in support of Germany as discussed previously.
(2) Italy will use their land to establish a FLOT on the western end of the Atlas Mtns with the intention of forcing the CW to fight bitterly, with hopefully significant loss of units & time, to get pass in Algeria.
Active WAR.
Algeria.
(1) Italy's 1 air move of their land will be used in support of Germany as discussed previously.
(2) Italy will use their land to establish a FLOT on the western end of the Atlas Mtns with the intention of forcing the CW to fight bitterly, with hopefully significant loss of units & time, to get pass in Algeria.
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Impulse Planning. Japan.
(1) Japan takes a land to address two situations in China.
(2) The first is in northern China vs the CCP (& NAT central army).
(3) This IJA Army Group is currently w/o overall commander (i.e., HQ) and is facing potential isolation of a number of flip armies.
(4) However; through rail and land moves or remaining organized armies, they have a plan to stabilize this front and prevent isolation of any units, with the exception of their flip cav corps if the turn continues.
(5) In Southern/Central China, Yamamoto (OOS) will move (& flip) to get supply and with snow will be able to supply all ground & air units within 3-hexes.
(6) A number of ground units outside of this range will move (& flip) to establish supply.
(7) The 2 air wings (1 NAV, 1 LND) outside of the 3-hex supply range with rebase to ABs within supply range.
(8) Because supply to ANY of the bomber wings can't be achieved until Yamamoto moves, strategic bombing vs Chinese factories is NOT possible this impulse.
(9) So, Japan only has a 20% chance of getting another impulse to even have a chance at meeting Japan-WAR-117 (Strategic Bombing).
Active WAR.
China.
(1) Japan takes a land to address two situations in China.
(2) The first is in northern China vs the CCP (& NAT central army).
(3) This IJA Army Group is currently w/o overall commander (i.e., HQ) and is facing potential isolation of a number of flip armies.
(4) However; through rail and land moves or remaining organized armies, they have a plan to stabilize this front and prevent isolation of any units, with the exception of their flip cav corps if the turn continues.
(5) In Southern/Central China, Yamamoto (OOS) will move (& flip) to get supply and with snow will be able to supply all ground & air units within 3-hexes.
(6) A number of ground units outside of this range will move (& flip) to establish supply.
(7) The 2 air wings (1 NAV, 1 LND) outside of the 3-hex supply range with rebase to ABs within supply range.
(8) Because supply to ANY of the bomber wings can't be achieved until Yamamoto moves, strategic bombing vs Chinese factories is NOT possible this impulse.
(9) So, Japan only has a 20% chance of getting another impulse to even have a chance at meeting Japan-WAR-117 (Strategic Bombing).
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Med.
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- 11-AX-Med.png (1.82 MiB) Viewed 302 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Europe.
Combat Logs (Western & Eastern Front).
Anti-German Partisan Chances (Post Land & Air Moves).
Map.
Combat Logs (Western & Eastern Front).
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. East Africa.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Axis #11. Asian Theater.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Impulse Planning.
(1) Turn continues to allied #14 (3rd allied impulse of the turn).
Weather Report
Actions, Activities Available.
Initiative, Impulse Info.
(1) Turn continues to allied #14 (3rd allied impulse of the turn).
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Impulse Planning. USA.
(1) The only open US WAR directive is to get 70% DOW vs Japan, it's currently at 10% and 0% vs Germany & Italy.
(2) However; the US will use this impulse and their 3 naval moves to put 1 CP in the East Coast, 2 CPs in the Canadian Coast & Transport Gp w/inf corps in the Denmark Straits.
(3) The US inf corps will debark to Reykjavik, Iceland this impulse.
(4) At EOT, 1 of 2 CPs in the Canadian Coast & 1 of 2 CPs in the Denmark Straits will RTB to Reykjavik.
(5) This will leave a "redundant" US supply CP chain from the US to Greenland to Iceland.
(6) Also, this chain will be the front end of a future Murmansk convoy line to the USSR.
(7) The 2 US CPs RTB to Reykjavik, will be the back end (Norwegian Coast & Arctic Ocean), which such a convoy line is possible (i.e., when it's possible for the US to send lend lease or RPs to the Soviet Union).
Active WAR.
US Entry Options.
Atlantic Planning.
(1) The only open US WAR directive is to get 70% DOW vs Japan, it's currently at 10% and 0% vs Germany & Italy.
(2) However; the US will use this impulse and their 3 naval moves to put 1 CP in the East Coast, 2 CPs in the Canadian Coast & Transport Gp w/inf corps in the Denmark Straits.
(3) The US inf corps will debark to Reykjavik, Iceland this impulse.
(4) At EOT, 1 of 2 CPs in the Canadian Coast & 1 of 2 CPs in the Denmark Straits will RTB to Reykjavik.
(5) This will leave a "redundant" US supply CP chain from the US to Greenland to Iceland.
(6) Also, this chain will be the front end of a future Murmansk convoy line to the USSR.
(7) The 2 US CPs RTB to Reykjavik, will be the back end (Norwegian Coast & Arctic Ocean), which such a convoy line is possible (i.e., when it's possible for the US to send lend lease or RPs to the Soviet Union).
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Impulse Planning. CW (& France).
(1) The CW takes a combine & France a land.
(2) In Europe, RAF strategic bombers will hit the German controlled factories in Lille & Brussels.
(3) Only 1 axis fighter wing (Bf 109 E-1) is in position to react (intercept) either raid.
(4) So, the axis will have to make a choice and leave one raid unopposed.
(5) The RAF has 1 fighter wing in position to react (counter intercept) if the Luftwaffe decides to intercept the Lille raid.
(6) The Lille run will be a day raid.
(7) No RAF fighter wings are in position to even escort, much less respond, if the Luftwaffe decides to intercept the Brussels raid.
(8) This run will be a night raid.
(9) The 6-range Hurricane IIC fighter wing that was rebased to Liverpool (last allied impulse) is being reclaimed by "Bomber" Harris and will rebase to E1-London so that it may in the future escorts raids against either Paris or Brussels and react (counter intercept) to raids against Lille.
(10) But that's in the future, so the Hampden bomber wing will have to fly this mission (at night) unescorted.
(11) In the Med, the RN will search both the West Med and Italian Coast.
(12) The main objective to both is breaking supply; especially in the West Med to Italian forces in North Africa.
(13) This will require in the West Med to deal with both the Italian supply CP, now unescorted because of storm in [0], and the TRS Gp in [2] now only escorted by an RM BB & CA.
(14) The CW will use all their 3 land moves & 1 rail move in North Africa.
(15) The UK CAV corps in Rabat will be railed to Gort in Algeria.
(16) This will make room for the UK III inf corps at sea in the CSV[0] to debark (1 LM) on Alexander in Rabat.
(17) The remaining 2 CW LMs will be use to flip control of the rail hex E1 of Gort and to establish the best FLOT vs the opposing Italians.
(18) If the RN can break Italian supply through the West Med & the turn ends, the flipped inf div and garrison in Algeris will be isolated and unable to reorg.
(19) Unfortunately, the Italian garrison is white print so the the isolated & flipped stack will still be formible.
(20) But that's getting WAY AHEAD of things; because the chance of the RN breaking Italian supply through the West Med is < 20%; but worth the shot.
(21) In Libya, the OOS Fr Cav will flip control of 2 Italian controlled hexes in Cyrenaica to counter the threat of isolation and will finish adjacent to the Italian Terr in Benghazi.
(22) Though still organized (It Terr), it will be isolated (and out of supply).
Active WAR.
RAF Strategic Bombing Planning.
Med & North Africa Planning.
(1) The CW takes a combine & France a land.
(2) In Europe, RAF strategic bombers will hit the German controlled factories in Lille & Brussels.
(3) Only 1 axis fighter wing (Bf 109 E-1) is in position to react (intercept) either raid.
(4) So, the axis will have to make a choice and leave one raid unopposed.
(5) The RAF has 1 fighter wing in position to react (counter intercept) if the Luftwaffe decides to intercept the Lille raid.
(6) The Lille run will be a day raid.
(7) No RAF fighter wings are in position to even escort, much less respond, if the Luftwaffe decides to intercept the Brussels raid.
(8) This run will be a night raid.
(9) The 6-range Hurricane IIC fighter wing that was rebased to Liverpool (last allied impulse) is being reclaimed by "Bomber" Harris and will rebase to E1-London so that it may in the future escorts raids against either Paris or Brussels and react (counter intercept) to raids against Lille.
(10) But that's in the future, so the Hampden bomber wing will have to fly this mission (at night) unescorted.
(11) In the Med, the RN will search both the West Med and Italian Coast.
(12) The main objective to both is breaking supply; especially in the West Med to Italian forces in North Africa.
(13) This will require in the West Med to deal with both the Italian supply CP, now unescorted because of storm in [0], and the TRS Gp in [2] now only escorted by an RM BB & CA.
(14) The CW will use all their 3 land moves & 1 rail move in North Africa.
(15) The UK CAV corps in Rabat will be railed to Gort in Algeria.
(16) This will make room for the UK III inf corps at sea in the CSV[0] to debark (1 LM) on Alexander in Rabat.
(17) The remaining 2 CW LMs will be use to flip control of the rail hex E1 of Gort and to establish the best FLOT vs the opposing Italians.
(18) If the RN can break Italian supply through the West Med & the turn ends, the flipped inf div and garrison in Algeris will be isolated and unable to reorg.
(19) Unfortunately, the Italian garrison is white print so the the isolated & flipped stack will still be formible.
(20) But that's getting WAY AHEAD of things; because the chance of the RN breaking Italian supply through the West Med is < 20%; but worth the shot.
(21) In Libya, the OOS Fr Cav will flip control of 2 Italian controlled hexes in Cyrenaica to counter the threat of isolation and will finish adjacent to the Italian Terr in Benghazi.
(22) Though still organized (It Terr), it will be isolated (and out of supply).
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #4. Impulse Planning. CCP & Nationalist.
(1) CCP will get an automatic assault, liberate Taiyuan, destroy the FOR MIL.
(2) To ensure a stable FLOT this will require the Sian MIL army to move north to form upper & lower ZOC locks.
(3) For now, this leaves the Lanchow to Sian corridor a bit exposed; but the CCP will have next turn to correct (if necessary).
(4) Also, the liberation of Taiyuan will open up the northern flank of the opposing IJA army group and position the CCP for disruption (next turn) 1 or possibly 2 RPs to Japanese controlled factory.
(5) The NAT cav corps in Nanning will move 1 hex east and isolated the OOS & flipped IJA cav corps; preventing him from being able to reorg.
Active WAR.
Attack Planning.
China.
(1) CCP will get an automatic assault, liberate Taiyuan, destroy the FOR MIL.
(2) To ensure a stable FLOT this will require the Sian MIL army to move north to form upper & lower ZOC locks.
(3) For now, this leaves the Lanchow to Sian corridor a bit exposed; but the CCP will have next turn to correct (if necessary).
(4) Also, the liberation of Taiyuan will open up the northern flank of the opposing IJA army group and position the CCP for disruption (next turn) 1 or possibly 2 RPs to Japanese controlled factory.
(5) The NAT cav corps in Nanning will move 1 hex east and isolated the OOS & flipped IJA cav corps; preventing him from being able to reorg.
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #4. Impulse Planning. USSR.
(1) The Soviets give up on trying to enter China this turn.
(2) However; they will reinforce Zhukov to include mech army & mot div for possible blitz or assault to get into China next turn.
(3) Also, next turn the prohibition of not capturing a 3rd Japanese controlled RP will be lift so Zhukov will make a play for the RP 2-hexes north of Peking.
(4) Yeremenko will also be reinforced and will move to flank the IJA in Korea along the east coast of Korea.
(5) Additional, Yeremenko will be positioning current forces and reinforcements for a likely next turn assault to capture the Korea RP (NE1 of Seoul) and possibly make a play for Seoul itself.
(6) The Soviets considered taking a combine, instead of a land, in order to search in the China Sea.
(7) Two factors played against taking a combine.
(8) The first was that the Soviet subs would be searching from a position of weakness and would require a VERY good search split to win.
(9) It was determined that it was better not to risk a bad result in order to keep the Soviet Sub threat alive and well and continue force Japan to contend with.
(10) The second factor was that the Soviets need several land moves to accomplish the above objectives with Zhukov's and Yeremenko's fronts.
(11) A Soviet combine only includes 5 land moves, 4 of which were needed by the CCP.
(12) Therefore; the Soviets took a land.
Active WAR.
Manchuria & Korea.
(1) The Soviets give up on trying to enter China this turn.
(2) However; they will reinforce Zhukov to include mech army & mot div for possible blitz or assault to get into China next turn.
(3) Also, next turn the prohibition of not capturing a 3rd Japanese controlled RP will be lift so Zhukov will make a play for the RP 2-hexes north of Peking.
(4) Yeremenko will also be reinforced and will move to flank the IJA in Korea along the east coast of Korea.
(5) Additional, Yeremenko will be positioning current forces and reinforcements for a likely next turn assault to capture the Korea RP (NE1 of Seoul) and possibly make a play for Seoul itself.
(6) The Soviets considered taking a combine, instead of a land, in order to search in the China Sea.
(7) Two factors played against taking a combine.
(8) The first was that the Soviet subs would be searching from a position of weakness and would require a VERY good search split to win.
(9) It was determined that it was better not to risk a bad result in order to keep the Soviet Sub threat alive and well and continue force Japan to contend with.
(10) The second factor was that the Soviets need several land moves to accomplish the above objectives with Zhukov's and Yeremenko's fronts.
(11) A Soviet combine only includes 5 land moves, 4 of which were needed by the CCP.
(12) Therefore; the Soviets took a land.
Active WAR.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Europe.
Combat Logs.
Eastern Front.
Western Front.
Strategic Bombing (Western Front).
Combat Logs.
Eastern Front.
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- 14-AL-Western-STRAT-Lille.png (407.16 KiB) Viewed 261 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Europe.
- 14-AL-Europe.png (3.39 MiB) Viewed 261 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 13. Sep/Oct 1941. Allied #14. Atlantic. USN.
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Ronnie