A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Axis #1. Med.

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01-AX-Med-West-Med-NC-1.png (206.43 KiB) Viewed 411 times

01-AX-Med.png (2.22 MiB) Viewed 411 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

Cape St. Vincent.

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01-AX-Atlantic-CSV-NC-1.png (187.93 KiB) Viewed 409 times

01-AX-Atlantic-CSV-NC-1b.png (171.81 KiB) Viewed 409 times

01-AX-Atlantic-CSV-NC-1c.png (171.79 KiB) Viewed 409 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

Faeroes Gap.

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01-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1.png (184.63 KiB) Viewed 409 times

Bay of Biscay.

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01-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1.png (181 KiB) Viewed 409 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Axis #1. Atlantic.

Reorg.

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01-AX-Atlantic-HQ-Reorg.png (308.24 KiB) Viewed 405 times

Summary.
(1) It was the Stay at Sea (SAS) RN patrols that thwarted the axis U-boats & subs this impulse.

(2) As thin as the SAS patrols were, 1 CA in [3] of Faeroes Gap, Bay of Biscay and specifically Cape St. Vincent, they reduce the chance of axis sub combat by 6% (from 30% to 24%) in each of the three targeted sea areas.

(3) At 24% for sub combat in each of 3 sea areas, Ge/It had 56.1% chance of fighting a sub combat in at least one.

(4) This did not happen because they missed (failed search) in two (Faeroes Gap & Bay of Biscay) and had to fight a surface in one (Cape St Vincent) because of the SAS RN patrol in [3].

(5) It was a combination of good luck and SAS RN patrols that prevented any CW/Fr CP losses/aborts this impulse.

(6) However; the threat to allied CPs is active in the Faeroes Gap & Bay of Biscay (since neither saw any losses much less contact by either side) and, significantly as you shall see shortly, by the potential vs several other Atlantic sea area from the two reorg (aborted from CSV) Italian Sub Gps in St-Nazarene.

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning. The Atlantic.

Euro-Axis Sub Threat.
(1) Active threats in Bay of Biscay and Faeroes Gap, which contains 17 CPs.

(2) 2 aborted (Cape St Vincent to St-Nazaire) and recently reorg It Sub Gps.

(3) These 2 reorg sub Gps extend allied risk into 12 additional sea areas (14 total).

(4) Specifically, the 2 reorg sub exposes 45 additional CPs (62 total) with 15.3 "at risk" (30.4 total).

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BOA Risk Matrix.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

Weather Report.

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CW – Naval
1. Supply CP, Queens w/Hong Kong garrison to China Sea.
2. Setup CP route for +1 BP -> BOB -> CSV -> CVB -> GOG -> BEL Congo.
3. Ensure full production, +1 saved oil to UK & 2 BPs to Free France.
4. Setup Atlantic convoy escorts based on threats, risks & balanced against other priorities.
5. Estimated 60% chance of getting 1 fine weather impulse in Med Weather Zone this turn; so send out bombardment TF (3 Queen Elizabeth class BBs) to Red Sea for Asmara.
6. Challenge w/vigor It/Ge air & naval in West Med to break supply, inflict losses & control sea area.
7. Raid Italian Coast, break Italian supply & Sardinian RP shipment.

00-WAR-CW.png (52.08 KiB) Viewed 345 times

France - Naval
8. Support Atlantic convoy escorts & patrols.
9. Support RN in West Med; specifically, 1+ Fr SCS that can search next allied impulse if necessary.
10. Support RN raid off Italian Coast & 1+ Fr SCS that can search next allied impulse if necessary.

00-WAR-France.png (12.46 KiB) Viewed 345 times

USA (Neutral) – Combine
11. “Optimal” support CW/FR convoy escorts in North Atlantic & East Coast.

00-WAR-USA.png (24.98 KiB) Viewed 345 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

USSR – Combine
1. Raid China Sea (Jp CPs)
2. 1 LM to seize vacated Mtn, E1-Pyongyang.
3. 3 LMs (4 tot) to position to flank west through Yan Mtn into China & threatening to cut shipment of 2 precious Jp RPs (MAN 67,145 & CH 68,141).

00-WAR-USSR.png (30.5 KiB) Viewed 344 times

CCP (1 LM)
1. Position Cav Div (Taiyuan) to capture vital rail junction NW1-Peking, which will cut shipment of 2 Jp RPs (MAN 67,145 & CH 68,141).

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Nationalist – Land
1. Effectively taking a pass; all Nationalist units are to hold on current positions.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Impulse Planning.

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03-AL-Impulse-Initiative-Info.png (79.57 KiB) Viewed 344 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Europe.

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03-AL-Europe.png (3.32 MiB) Viewed 302 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Pacific.

CW.

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03-AL-Pacific-CW.png (1.07 MiB) Viewed 301 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Pacific.

USSR. Combat Logs.

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China Sea. Round 1 (1/2).

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03-AL-Pacific-China-Sea-NC-1b.png (160.29 KiB) Viewed 301 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Pacific.

China Sea. Round 1 (2/2).

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03-AL-Pacific-China-Sea-NC-1d.png (192.46 KiB) Viewed 301 times

Round 2.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Asian Theater.

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03-AL-Asia-Manchuria-NE-China.png (1.78 MiB) Viewed 301 times

03-AL-Asian-China.png (1.38 MiB) Viewed 301 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. East Africa.

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03-AL-East-Africa.png (1.52 MiB) Viewed 301 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Med.

East Med.

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03-AL-Med-East-Med.png (1.03 MiB) Viewed 296 times

Italian Coast. Round 1 (1/3).

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03-AL-Med-Italian-Coast-NC-1.png (241.43 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Med.

Italian Coast. Round 1 (2/3).

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03-AL-Med-Italian-Coast-NC-1c.png (244.85 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Med.

Italian Coast. Round 1 (3/3).

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03-AL-Med-Italian-Coast-NC-1e.png (209.97 KiB) Viewed 296 times

03-AL-Med-Italian-Coast-NC-1f.png (143.29 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Med.

West Med. Combat Logs.

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West Med. Round 1. (1/2).

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03-AL-Med-West-Med-NC-1b.png (288.52 KiB) Viewed 296 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. Med.

West Med. Round 1. (2/2).

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03-AL-Med-West-Med-NC-1d.png (201.31 KiB) Viewed 293 times

West Med. Round 2.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Allied #3. The Atlantic.

(1) For some reason this site often determines that I've made too many post and shuts me out from posting or even viewing this AAR sub forum.

(2) It's happened to me several times, the last being Christmas Eve when I only had a couple of more posts to make for this current impulse.

(3) I'm back now to finish posting this impulse!

(4) The 2 reorg Italian Sub Groups in St-Nazaire forced the RN & Fr to dilute their escorts and patrols vs the active threats (i.e., literally present threats) in the Faeroes Gap and Bay of Biscay.

(5) Was this by design from the Italian player, as the Italian player I would answer yes.

(6) In fact the Italians were "strongly" pressured by the Germans to reorg to place such pressure on the CW and French players.

(7) These 2 freshly reorg It Sub Gps "forced" the RN/Fr to divert 10 warships (CAs) for patrol and 17 warships for escort of convoys (i.e., CPs) in 8 sea areas that are threaten but currently have no active threats present.

(8) To be fair, some of the 17 warship escorts were already present in the sea area(s) and just moved down from a higher box to escort (i.e., [0] box).

(9) The allied philosophy was to optimize escort ASW across the active and potentially threaten sea areas and then set patrols of 1 or 2 CAs as best as possible.

(10) The patrols were that which diluted the most across ALL threaten sea areas (active & potential).

Atlantic U-boat/Sub Threats.

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Naval Moves - Combat Logs.

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CW Production (Post Naval Moves).
(11) The RN did put out the additional CPs necessary to get the 2nd lend lease CP from the UK to Free France's current home country to the Belgian Congo.

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