Fall Grau 2.29 Chris (Axis) vs. Jeremy (Allies)

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 17
The spread is identical this turn with both of us being at 82. Replacement rate still at a very high 98%. I’ll probably lose Hartford next turn but with that damage kicking ion turn 19 I can’t really say I am all that concerned. Getting me to a bad place replacement wise is going to be quite the task I should think.

Compared to last turn it is a pretty quiet turn. Chris’ attacks are lighter and often focused on shoring up his line. A big chunk of 1st SS Panzer shows up to make sure the advance toward Philadelphia picks up and I launch my own counter attack here to try and pick on the unsupplied German Infantry but there is not much dramatic going on.

The Axis Mexican offencive takes the turn off as 12th Armour in Vera Cruz does succumb.

The one offensive that really hurts me this turn is the Canadians who continue to fall apart. They are retreating behind Axis lines and being destroyed. This is particularly bad as the excellent Free (insert nationality here) units can’t re replaced. They are the Allies only veteran units have the best proficiencies and can’t be replaced.

The turn leaves me straining to keep reinforcing the line near Hartford which is beginning to really crack and a desperate need to feed more Americans up toward Canada to keep that line in existence.

But these all feel like fairly minor issues at the moment. The replacement rate is very high and Chris has only a few turns to really do something about that before it goes to the stratosphere. I think he can stop a launch into orbit… but would be surprised if he can really change ‘very high’.

Oh and we are getting pretty close to the point where the Japanese will probably try and land. I start getting some kind of reserve in the vicinity Olympia up in Washington State to be ready to react to that.

Canadian and Commonwealth forces are constantly retreating to the south leading to them being cut off behind the lines

Jer Allies Turn 17.jpg (1.61 MiB) Viewed 353 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 18
It is back to the grind. The Axis grind there way forward on all fronts but nothing major anywhere. My Allies launch counter attacks but primarily local affairs though some strategic ones meant to push Chris back from Philadelphia in particular take place and also one designed to stabilize the line north of Hartford.

Chris does not storm Hartford which surprises me. I presume it means that he plans to cut it off. My go too strategy for these Industrial Cities close to the coast but it can be an iffy option. I have a high replacement rate. Getting that down should be a priority and I am likely to repeatedly counterattack to keep the area from being cut off. This could add a lot of turns of me getting those extra replacements before the city falls.

For the first time my reinforcements to the front are really low but I also somewhat feel like I’ve managed to get most of the armour off the front line as well - except the Canadians. Though even their line is looking almost OK this turn. The Americans took over everything south of Lake Champlain.

So far everything remains very much under control.

The Front line is Hartford and Philadelphia but clearly the pincers are closing on New York City

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 19
A bit stressful watching so many Axis units pour ashore when I have so little in the way of reinforcements myself but the way the fronts are I just don’t really have any real trouble closing up the gaps even on an aggressive Axis turn. Sure I am going backward but not fast. We are still fighting around Hartford. Not fighting around Albany and Montreal and Quebec are now in the vicinity of the front line. Philadelphia also in the vicinity of heavy fighting but the advance toward Pittsburg or the Ohio River seems to have slowed down.

Also not much of a push south into Georgia. Even Mexico is not all that noisy. The advance there seems to be a little stalled this turn though I can’t figure out why. I don’t imagine my Mexicans can really stop this. In fact here I think a little more focus on a single strong drive will really pay Dividends against the weak Mexican Divisions.

Compare and contrast with much of the rest of the frontlines where I tend to think the stacks are not really all that good at making an advance go faster. If you can break up a defensive line and exploit it makes sense but the terrain here is so bad that it tends to become a stack on the attack and easy targets for artillery.

Outside of the Canadians I continue to mass armour. Normally something I have a hard time with but here the front lines have remained short enough that I can pretty easily find troops to free up my Armoured Divisions.

Turn is a bit rough for me as I get a 1 rounder with a blown proficiency check but I don’t think I am to much out of position.

The ways over the Ohio start to dominate my thoughts. Note that the reserve I am talking about is being gathered near Pittsburg

Jer Allies Turn 19.jpg (1.51 MiB) Viewed 304 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 20
Well here we are on turn 20 and I feel like I am in a far better position than I expected to be at this stage. The Replacement rate is 148%. Been some while since I had a replacement rate that high.

Chris attacks along the front and the Canadians, as has been the case this whole match are falling apart. I have to retreat away from the St. Lawrence in the centre for fear of being cut off and a number of units are left behind. These guys are having so much trouble that the 3rd National Guard that arrived this turn are going to sent up here to further extend the American line just so I can start trying to put the Canadians back together.
Something of a push against Albany and a stronger one against Hartford. Hartford will probably be cut off next turn and fall a turn or two after that.
Philadelphia is where some pretty significant action takes place. It is almost surrounded on my turn but that leaves it ripe for a counter attack and I cut off two SS Panzer Divisions (SS Hitler Jugend & SS Ferdinand) and wipe them out to a man. I also realize this turn that the New Turn Order rules are off as are New Mud and Snow Rules and New Density Rules. That last won’t have any effect on the game but the lack of New Turn order rules is a pretty significant advantage for the Allies.

I also launch a pretty heavy counter attack south east of Pittsburg. Here I am just trying to play keep away with the Axis. I don’t want them getting to far in this direction.

A small counter attack in the south as well. I remain somewhat surprised at just how limited the fighting is on this front is.

Still being beaten up in Mexico but still some distance before the Axis get to Mexico City.

Loss Rating seems pretty favourable, replacement rate very high and while the number of Rifle Squad+ in the kitty is falling it is not falling all that fast and is still well above 3000. I am feeling ever more confident. Sure I am going to lose some Industrial Cities in the not to distant future but I have a lot of excess production and it will take quite a lot before are even start to become uncomfortable here.

Allied Industrial Output Increases = 148%

Allied Loss Rate = 93
Axis Loss Rate = 108
Spread = -15

Allied Strategic position on Turn 20

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 21
The story has not changed to much from last turn. The Canadians continue to really fall apart though the arrival of the entire 3rd National Guard Corp into the area will hopefully get this back into at least looking like it is under control.

Axis advance finally cuts off Hartford. Not sure if I lose it next turn or the turn after. Counter attacks might keep Philadelphia in play. I guess I will see. More counter attacks to keep any advances to the West under control.

Down in Mexico things continue to fall apart. Don’t see that stopping as Axis reinforcements keep pouring in though primarily Bulgarians and Italians. I do catch an Italian Division out at sea with Mexican airpower, and it dies.

On my turn I keep digging up some reserves to send out to the Washington State area including early air units which I think will be just fine against the Japanese. None of this is as much as I would like to be there already but managing to gather some reserves will help to reduce just how out of hand everything gets when they do land.

Spread keeps climbing pretty quickly in my favour.

The Mexicans continue being driven back.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 22
Chris and I briefly discuss the idea of starting a new game. We shelve that for the moment but I have mentioned that I am not particularly freaking out about the attack he has going and I think by about this point the wheels are usually starting to come off for the Allies in most matches.

The Japanese land near San Francisco but only on the south side. I can find the forces to cut it off and loads rail in from mostly Washington State. I think there is a reasonable chance Chris lands on the northern beach next turn because otherwise I am a bit skeptical this works.

Seems pretty clear that Chris really wants to cut off the Industrial Cities. Obviously, Hartford is cut off but there are no attacks on the city this turn. It will starve eventually but that could be a quite a few turns. Meanwhile attempts to cut off Albany and Philadelphia are met with counter attacks and the 3rd National Guard start trying to shore up the Canadians – who do have a lot of troops cut off.

Actually, the Mexicans get quite the stack cut off as well which is odd because they retreat to Mexico City. Chris must have directed their retreat.

It is in most ways the same story as last turn and the turn before. The spread widens in my favour and the lines are hardly perfect but its holding together – more or less.

National Guard taking over the line as the Canadians make a disorganized retreat behind the St. Lawrence

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[golden delicious]

Oh hey a Fall Grau AAR and it's not even my birthday.

Turn 2
Well that is a twist… Turns out there is a 2nd prong after all. Chris hits Portland in Maine and quickly grabs the supply point there. Risky. I think I could have covered the landing hex last turn but did not prioritize it as I was not expecting an attack here.

A turn 2 landing here is definitely interesting. There are a huge number of Allied units in the northeast at the start of the scenario and almost all of them will have spent turn 1 burning their way south towards Norfolk, albeit that will still leave several Commonwealth units in New England. Personally I prefer to cover all the anchorages barring the less useful ones like Halifax and Miami immediately, so the Axis got lucky here.

[golden delicious]

I have never seen a landing at Portland before, and it is interesting in that it does offer a way to threaten both Canada and New England. If I where thinking up an Axis invasion it dawns on me that Portland offers a pretty good way to threaten a lot, more than Boston or Quebec do, while leaving open two other landings for some other plan.

Yeah, as landing points Quebec and Boston both suck, with Boston too easily hemmed in and Quebec surrounded by difficult terrain that rapidly bogs down. It's difficult to give up on getting an industrial city right off the bat in the northeast, but a landing at Portland definitely guarantees you Boston in the first ten turns.

[golden delicious]

I really should just make a habit of cutting this supply trace – like always. It can literally resupply Axis forces in like Quebec.

That's true but note that they will be overextended, meaning no replacements and if they are low on supply they will suffer desertion effects (albeit this equipment will not be permanently lost)

[golden delicious]

The ways over the Ohio start to dominate my thoughts. Note that the reserve I am talking about is being gathered near Pittsburg

I find it's almost impossible for the Axis to cross the Ohio in this direction. Besides having to cross the most ferocious part of the Appalachians and a strong defensive river angle, there are also almost no airfields to support such a crossing, meaning that the Allies will invariably have air superiority over the crossings. The only way this would be a threat would be if you were on the ropes already- and you're not.

I did think that a rapid loss of Mexico City as well as some grabs in the Northeast would keep the game in the balance, but these opportunities seem to have been missed.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

The ways over the Ohio start to dominate my thoughts. Note that the reserve I am talking about is being gathered near Pittsburg

I find it's almost impossible for the Axis to cross the Ohio in this direction. Besides having to cross the most ferocious part of the Appalachians and a strong defensive river angle, there are also almost no airfields to support such a crossing, meaning that the Allies will invariably have air superiority over the crossings. The only way this would be a threat would be if you were on the ropes already- and you're not.

I did think that a rapid loss of Mexico City as well as some grabs in the Northeast would keep the game in the balance, but these opportunities seem to have been missed.

The crossing of the Ohio was the reason Baltimore was made verbotten via Coastal Forts in my mind. Though it may be the case that you agreed more because you liked the idea of adding Coastal Forts to the scenario. That said both Matt and I where advocating this. I recall a bunch of playtest games with a guy named Matt. You played him once as well. I played him like 6 times. Anyway he pretty much seemed to show that you could always force the Ohio from Baltimore. I recall from the period that one of the keys was pushing really hard toward the Ohio in the early turns. Your trying to get it so that you are 80% of the way there by the time the Allies really shore up their defences around turn 10.

How plausible this is under the current version has not yet been tested.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 23
I start having second thoughts about when the wheels come off for the Allied player. Chris is really on a break out or bust kick. He is putting pressure on me but I question how well this works. He is really pushing glowing red Panzer Divisions hard to pull this off. The spread is getting pretty heavily in my favour. What does it even mean to break out if the Axis army has been burnt up in the process?

The Japanese push their way beside San Francisco. I was wrong about kicking in the door on the northern beach. It is everything from the south. There are a ton of them out of supply. It is all going to come down to desperate attacks next turn I think. I dug in an Armoured Division and a Heavy Tank Brigade in San Fransisco because the Japanese find those hard to shift.

Mexico is a real mess with the Mexican line falling apart but this results in Chris letting one of the German PanzerGrenadier Divisions to get out ahead and they are so burnt out they are not all that powerful. The Mexicans manage to surround and destroy it. I am getting a ton of Irregulars next turn. Might be able to restore the situation down here with those.

The hard push by the Axis results in Hartford and Albany falling this turn, which will put a dent in my replacement rate, but it will still be at an amazing 120%. I need to fall a long, long way before this is likely to really get out of control.

The Japanese pushing hard for the harbour of San Fransisco

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 24
Philadelphia falls this turn. That will knock my replacement rate to 96% which is still very high all things considered.

That said I am shifting around some of my priorities this turn. The fall of Philadelphia coincides with my Armoured Divisions in the area becoming increasingly exhausted and Armoured Divisions in general getting sucked into the line.

I have no illusions that I am going to keep New York. I would like to dig in full strength Divisions throughout the city, including some Armoured Divisions. I want to make taking New York tough and slow but it is going to fall and once that happens the whole defence in the North becomes Pittsburg / Buffalo /Montreal. Montreal is on the front line but the rest of this is further off. If I can manage it I am looking for a slow withdrawal here not using to much in terms of the Armoured Divisions. The Armoured Divisions need to be regathered and then focused I think around Pittsburg to slow up any advances that way. Make it so the trek across the wilderness is mainly what happens turn after turn.

The Canadians push hard to drive the Axis away from Montreal. The Canadians have started to recover. It is a combination of the 3rd National Guard freeing up a ton of them, reinforcements and I think Denver becoming the preferred retreat path.

The front in the south around Georgia is one that has really become a problem child. The line is full of retreated units and I have just not been able to really find the forces to put it back together. I am hoping that sorts itself out. I think once I get myself more organized in New England I will find that I actually have reasonable reserves there for a while and so I can focus my reinforcements down here.

Meanwhile Mexico is a mess but a load of Irregular Divisions arrived this turn so the area is getting quite a few reinforcements and Axis forces down here are often not that strong. It is a messy swirling fight down here but I am less on the backfoot here then has been the case recently.

The Japanese Landing failed to take San Francisco but Chris did blow the bridge. I can keep my forces in supply (though only because we are using the old supply rules – which we should not be) with Engineers. The Japanese are themselves out of supply but might manage to finally advance next turn. Obviously time is running out for them fast but my Armoured Division did go into Reorganization so my attempts to play keep away here are not going all that well. I am pretty much assuming that the Japanese will be here to stay. I’ll send the 4th National Guard here in a couple of turns. It is hardly ideal but not the end of the world either.

Spread jumps pretty heavily in my favour this turn. I have no idea how Chris can really dig his way out of this.

I get a speech event. Normally I don’t worry to much about these because I use the Axis minors to secure my rail lines. Chris has not done that preferring to throw them into the meat grinder. I think this will make a mess of his supplies for a few turns though he is never really that far from a supply source so the effect will be muted.

Harford Falls = 133%
Albany Falls = 120%

Allied Loss Rate = 121
Axis Loss Rate = 160
Spread = -39

With the fall of Philadelphia the battle for New York begins

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[golden delicious]

The crossing of the Ohio was the reason Baltimore was made verbotten via Coastal Forts in my mind.

I did this to make a double envelopment of New York less of an obvious, default move for the Axis. This is what landing at Baltimore (plus Boston/Portland/Quebec) gives you. Then it doesn't matter if you get over the Ohio because taking everything east of Buffalo and north of Norfolk in the first twelve turns makes it hard for the Allies to stay in the game, as replacements will be 51% minus whatever has been taken with the 3rd landing.

I recall a bunch of playtest games with a guy named Matt. You played him once as well.

I dug out the AAR I wrote on this match and it does remind me of Matt's thesis that the Axis could always win the game with a landing in the northeast.

Anyway I checked what happened in that match: Matt conceded after turn 20. This was the summary I wrote at the time:

I won the match against Jeremy [in which I played the Axis and did the pincer movement on New York] because he deployed his forces in such a way as to make them too vulnerable, and I won the match against Matt because he fought for geographic objectives rather than trying to destroy my force in the field. The bottom line is, regardless of where you land in this scenario, the first responsibility of the Allied player is to keep his army on the map, while the Axis tries to destroy it. It's this, rather than any particular combination of landing points, which is the best path to victory.

I'll note that in the match where I won as the Axis, I made no attempt to cross the Ohio from the east. In fact my forces in the northeast were concentrated against Toronto and Buffalo. This to me is more lucrative as the Allies will be in no position to stand and fight so very quickly Toronto leads to Detroit, which doesn't have a huge mountain range in front of it.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

I'll note that in the match where I won as the Axis, I made no attempt to cross the Ohio from the east. In fact my forces in the northeast were concentrated against Toronto and Buffalo. This to me is more lucrative as the Allies will be in no position to stand and fight so very quickly Toronto leads to Detroit, which doesn't have a huge mountain range in front of it.

Don't think I have seen Detroit actually conquered via the Niagara Peninsula. Maybe it was going to happen in that game. The downside in my mind is its super tight going. The front is only a few hexs wide and I would think the Allies could be dug in on every hex.

My memory of the situation was the landing in Baltimore split the Allied defences so they had a tough time defending the Ohio crossing and all those Industrial Cities. Matt was advocating that you just had to abandon everything and focus on defending the Ohio but of course that is a very fast way to be at very low replacements. The theory never got tested because Baltimore was closed for business.

I don't really remember a try at the pincer after that - though clearly this match is that.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 25
Heavy fighting around the perimeter. I could still identify the assault toward New York City on both sides as the largest and most powerful Axis attack but outside of that it is more difficult to really pin point where the main thrusts are as the entire perimeter is under attack.

That said the Canadians continue to rebuild, launching sharp counter attacks to try and keep Montreal safe.

I continue to try and turn New York City and the corridor out into just one big strong point even as much of my armour and a bunch of the HQs are being withdrawn. I am looking for a controlled collapse here. The armour and the HQs are being resupplied and sent to the vicinity Pittsburgh. I remain convinced that the game has developed in such a way that I can only really loose if Chris breaks out over the Ohio and the best terrain to stop that is around where I am now. I hope to eventually gather a large grouping of Armoured Divisions and HQs here and just constantly counter attack to really limit the ground gained here. I can afford to be pushed back everywhere else but, if I can, I want to draw the line here.

So in Mexico I am actually the one on the counterattack. The arriving irregulars pretty much get in behind the Axis northern flank. I cut off and kill one of the tiny Bulgarian Panzer Divisions and a bunch of Axis forces on this flank are cut from supplies.

This is probably the first turn in a long time (if ever) that I am likely reinforcing the front lines more heavily than Chris as I had a reasonably good haul of reinforcements (albeit some are reconstituted units).

The Japanese capture San Francisco and I can’t get it back so they will survive. They are out of supply this turn and look pretty pooped so I aggressively attack on my turn but no dice as I just bounce off even these tired out Japanese. Armoured Divisions and HQs that arrive as reinforcements (as opposed to ones pulled out of the vicinity of New York City) will be sent this way for a bit just because they are so good against the Japanese and I think working on the Japanese a bit now will really help to insure they don’t get out of hand later.

Losses shift slightly in Chris’ favour this turn. He is still in quite the hole but I have lost a fair number of Industrial cities and he is pushing hard. We will see if this continues.

Philadelphia Falls = 96%

The fighting spans the entire continent

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 26
Up around the Canadians things seem much quieter. Maybe Axis supplies here are running low or the Canadians have really done a solid job of repairing themselves and my line is well defended with increasing numbers of full Divisions. I am, in fact, looking to reorganize and then start up with some solid counter attacks here to drive Chris back over the St. Lawrence. After that though I am not sure what I should do. I am not driving all the way back to Portland. It is not an important part of the map.

Speculation at this time but the AT- Rifle squads fell below 1000 this turn. Somewhere around 700. The main American army has held up great, but we are approaching the point where losses won’t just be replaced. It looks a bit weird but what makes sense would be to start shifting American divisions that have been rebuilt to Canada to take up defensive positions, and I shift the Canadians to a more active front. Possibly to become the mainstay of a counterattack against the Japanese. All of this predicated on a Canadian offensive that drives the Axis solidly back over the St. Lawrence and ends any real threat to Quebec City or Montreal.

In any case the rest of the line in the East is badly pummeled and barely holding together. If the losses were not so lopsided I would be in the first stages of a major panic about this point. But they are so lopsided. A National Guard Corp was sent to the south this turn and a couple of Infantry Divisions to the northerly part of the line. It will have to do to just keep shoring things up.

Meanwhile my plans on a large gathering of armour at Pittsburgh are looking like they will come together slower then I would hope. Axis breakouts force me to keep several Armoured Divisions near the New York Corridor to keep up with counterattacks. The goal is to try and make sure that things fall in an orderly way. I want to Lose New York first, but slowly, and then withdraw out of the Corridor. To do that I need to use counterattacks to drive back Axis pushes into the Corridor. That means less Armoured Divisions near Pittsburgh – especially with the recent reinforcements being sent against the Japanese.

West coast and the Japanese get hale real quick. Just the replacements flowing back into their units. Supply wise they could be better but they are slowly pushing me back. Not to concerned as of yet.

Mexico things are more exciting as we are both on the offensive. Chris does break his cut off units back to the lines but I actually push pretty hard in the north on my turn. Also this turn I have Reserve Divisions going to take up positions that where being held by the Lighter American Corps. Marines, Airbourne, Mountain Infantry. The plan will be to send them to Mexico where I might see if I can’t start another offensive.

The much talked about western line facing the Ohio crossings

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[NightTime977]

Im enjoying the AAR Jeremy need to try this Scenario after my game good luck