Fall Grau 2.29 Chris (Axis) vs. Jeremy (Allies)

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 28
Another partial turn but not a one rounder. I think I got about 3 rounds and about 50% of turn. I will be a little out of place on the next turn but hopefully not too bad. My really high supply level runs out this turn. I think that will put something of a damper on my counter attacks but we will see. I have managed to really amass a lot of Cavalry and Armoured Divisions near Pittsburgh. More to come but it is a pretty impressive concentration and I am now throwing a pretty heavy counter attack into the vicinity. Not sure exactly how long this keeps up or how it develops but my basic defensive plan seems to be proceeding.

Canadians also kick off an offencive though I realize that I might not be able to really keep it up for long with supplies tighter.

Just managing to hold it together between the Canadians and New York City which is cut off though I reestablish a connection this turn. It is pretty clear that the city will fall fairly fast. Axis forces are badly burnt out but still attacking here in large stacks. Even Fortified full strength Divisions get blasted out of their hexs reasonably quickly.

The southern part of the front is back to pretty much under control as the remaining National Guard shore up the line. 3 Armoured Divisions down here and mostly pulled together. I suspect I send one up to Pittsburgh and hold onto a couple for local counter attacks.

Mexico is not progressing as well as I would hope. Croatians et al. have arrived and I am finding it difficult to keep up the offencive down here.

Allied Loss Rate = 154
Axis Loss Rate = 195
Spread = -41

Mexican forces trying to make gains by infiltrating through the lines of Axis minors, disrupting their supplies.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 29
Another early turn ender! Dag nab it! Again probably about 3 rounds and 50% or so of the turn. Mostly what I loose here is the opportunity to exploit some successes.

Canada is odd. It looks like Chris is shifting away from Canada itself and more to a push to the south toward Watertown. The whole front here from the St. Lawrence all the way down to near New York is totally falling apart and the Axis advance faster then I would like. Maybe the idea is to reinforce that. Thing is it is a big land grab of stuff not all that valuable. Until you get to Buffalo and Cleveland. I see why the Axis player wants those places but Quebec City and Montreal are on the front line.

I ran the math and if Chris took New York City, Montreal, Quebec City and Mexico City he would have me at a 67% replacement rate which would jump back to 100% on turn 40. The Axis player can deal with a high Allied replacement rate for a while but I don’t think forever.

In any case New York and the Corridor out are a real mess this turn. Whole stacks are cut from supply and I’ll take some real losses next turn. Probably lose New York City as well. The retreat out of the Corridor has turned into a fiasco and could lead to higher losses as well but on that score we will have to see how things develop.
8 Armoured Divisions, 3 Cavalry Divisions and 2 Heavy Tank Brigades are now operating in the vicinity of Pittsburgh. I’m launching counter attacks here that, despite the area being one where Axis reinforcements are being sent, are still pushing the Axis backward. I’d love to gather more here but I don’t see it for a while. The line south of here is pretty inactive but I stripped it down to just 1 Armoured Division and that means the next one that pops up in reinforcements probably goes here as I think 2 Armoured Divisions is about the very minimum one needs for a reactive defense.

Mexico is good and bad. The good part is I killed a couple of Italian Infantry Divisions this turn. The bad part is the continual arrival of Axis reinforcements, most recently the Hungarian Mobile Corp, means my counterattack here is not doing great.

The Japanese are doing very limited pushes. Only the first wave of Japanese have arrived as of yet and that is not enough on their own to do much more then hold a bridgehead.

Japanese attacks are minimal and this front is basically peaceful.

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[golden delicious]

Dag nab it!

Wasn't that a Daniel McBride scenario?

Again probably about 3 rounds and 50% or so of the turn

As the Allies, this is a typical turn. You normally have to be setting up for the defensive on the second round barring exceptional circumstances.

[Curtis Lemay]

Dag nab it!

Wasn't that a Daniel McBride scenario?

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 30
Up In Canada it is really just me doing very limited offences while the Axis push from the St. Lawrence to the vicinity of New York City is very aggressive, driving forward at a good clip. Here it is everything I can do to try and escape with much of these units and that is not working out well despite some limited counter attacks. There are a lot of units being digested in New York City as well. Despite all of this, so far, the spread just hovers around negative 40 in my favour and has for a bunch of turns now. Goes up and down slightly but is mainly basically holding. That said I am getting closer to running out of the key Rifle Squad AT- which might actually start causing a real shift.

Further along the lines here I am the one executing a major counter attack while I play keep away near Pittsburgh. I actually retook most of the key terrain in the area and have really shoved the Axis back a substantial distance over the last few turns. My own armour is pretty burnt out however so now we see if I can shift more to limited counter attacks to maintain this situation while resupplying the Armoured Divisions.

South of here it is mostly quiet. A few attacks that I have reserves to plug.

Mexico on the other hand is a big deal. Mexico City falls and with that I decide I am going to break contact but I want to do so in an organized way so the southern flank pulls back while I try and hold on the main line. I am also trying to spread the Irregulars out as they are really good at facilitating a retreat once it comes to that.

Meanwhile on the West Coast the Japanese are attacking but in a very limited manner.

Allied Industrial Output Increases = 129%

The Strategic situation on turn 30

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[golden delicious]

Mexico on the other hand is a big deal. Mexico City falls and with that I decide I am going to break contact but I want to do so in an organized way so the southern flank pulls back while I try and hold on the main line. I am also trying to spread the Irregulars out as they are really good at facilitating a retreat once it comes to that.

I would think that you'd want to hold your position along the coast (near Tuxpan) and pivot the rest of the line around this point, so that you end up with a strong defence in depth directly south of Tampico and then a refused flank through the inland mountains, with light forces further back in the desert. In theory the Axis could push up from here to Monterrey, another industrial city, so keeping them back from the supply point at Tampico allows you to fight at an advantage. It'd be a different matter if you were in a desperate crisis elsewhere- then you could just leave a couple of divisions to screen and move the rest to more critical fronts- but this is not the case so you can give yourself the luxury of blocking the coast road. The 20-30 divisions you seem to have in the field here should be enough for this.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Mexico on the other hand is a big deal. Mexico City falls and with that I decide I am going to break contact but I want to do so in an organized way so the southern flank pulls back while I try and hold on the main line. I am also trying to spread the Irregulars out as they are really good at facilitating a retreat once it comes to that.

I would think that you'd want to hold your position along the coast (near Tuxpan) and pivot the rest of the line around this point, so that you end up with a strong defence in depth directly south of Tampico and then a refused flank through the inland mountains, with light forces further back in the desert. In theory the Axis could push up from here to Monterrey, another industrial city, so keeping them back from the supply point at Tampico allows you to fight at an advantage. It'd be a different matter if you were in a desperate crisis elsewhere- then you could just leave a couple of divisions to screen and move the rest to more critical fronts- but this is not the case so you can give yourself the luxury of blocking the coast road. The 20-30 divisions you seem to have in the field here should be enough for this.

This is not real time. If I am posting here I am, at a minimum, 25 turns ahead. Like you however I write the AAR shortly after finishing the actual turn.

Hence you need to post in the form: 'If Jeremy is smart he will do X and Y'. Then you can make exasperated comments if I fail to have recognized what should have been obvious.

Not sure if I cover it in the main AAR here or not but a huge driver to getting that southern wing back is that the supply situation down that wing is abysmal, especially after Mexico City fell.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 31
OK this is unexpected. Chris hits the beach just below Vancouver, blows away the two Divisions I have there and advances around the outskirts of Vancouver. It has not fallen but it will shortly and there is certainly nothing I can do about that. I send some odds and sods to start blocking in the landing.

Thinking about it I feel like the standard issue American Infantry Division is what I want for the backbone of fighting the Japanese. Those units have a lot of Tanks in them which should make them good for the fight and also I feel like the fighting with the Japanese is not as intense as some of the other fighting. I am not exactly panicking yet but losses are getting up there and I am pretty close to running out of the Rifle Squad AT-.

The fighting in the east kind of maintains the recent pattern. Canadians on the counter attack then the whole front from the St. Lawrence down to Scranton, which used to be the southern hinge on the New York Corridor is falling fast. Here there is stuff like desperate counter attacks to slow things up or keep some of my units in supply for another turn.

Then Axis attacks are much more limited and in particular I am counter attacking in the vicinity of Pittsburgh and approaches to the Ohio River.

Mexico has me retreating on the southern flank. Not everything will get away but it looks like most of my stuff will. A bit of a surprise as I have a double line forming in Mexico. I certainly want to pull back the southern flank due to the low supply. I am not sure that the Mexican offensive is even really over as of yet. As my forces continue to build up and the Axis run out of reinforcements maybe I kick it off again?

All in all the Vancouver landing is a surprise. It makes me want to reinforce LA and San Diego as beach defenses have not been working very well so far. All that said split up like this the Japanese don’t pose that much of a long term threat. I suppose with an Eastern Landing they never where unless the Panama Canal fell so maybe this is their best use. Still they are ripe for a defeat in detail.

My main goal to win this remains just stalling everything out to the east of Pittsburgh and the Ohio.

Mexico City falls = 103%

Japanese Second Wave hits the beaches just south of Vancouver

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[golden delicious]

This is not real time. If I am posting here I am, at a minimum, 25 turns ahead. Like you however I write the AAR shortly after finishing the actual turn.

I know that- this is not my first rodeo. Anyway, pretending this is live makes it interesting for the punters.

Not sure if I cover it in the main AAR here or not but a huge driver to getting that southern wing back is that the supply situation down that wing is abysmal, especially after Mexico City fell.

Well we're agreed that the long arcing front that was protecting Mexico City is now irrelevant. The tricky part is the terrain down here rapidly becomes ferocious and it's very hard to move east-west once you're south of Mexico City.

[golden delicious]

Thinking about it I feel like the standard issue American Infantry Division is what I want for the backbone of fighting the Japanese. Those units have a lot of Tanks in them which should make them good for the fight and also I feel like the fighting with the Japanese is not as intense as some of the other fighting.

This and, especially later on, the armoured divisions with less powerful tanks; M3 Lees (in Mexican divisions), M4/75s, Valentines and Rams (which in this scenario are modelled with more Valentines), all of which have limited replacements and are just toast against a panzer division, but a real problem for the Japanese with their 37 and 47mm AT guns.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 32
Well Vancouver falls. Not a big surprise there. New York as well. There are a chunk of my units that have been cut off and the Axis advance continues between Canada and Scranton though Axis advances anywhere else (except Vancouver) are minimal. I am concerned that I’ll lose more as withdrawing units that had once been a part of the New York Corridor is not working well. No roads out and the units seem to always be in retreating or route.

I’m beginning to think I should have been more cognoscente of this issue when I designed the defence. The thing is so far this screw up is just not really seeming to have much impact. I’d think the spread (in losses) would start shifting but it has not. We hover around 40 in my favour and have since about turn 25. It is actually a bit of a surprise. I’m losing troops - sometimes whole stacks but the numbers don’t shift. I don’t really have much in the way of replacements left to replace everything. My guess is my replacement rate remains fairly high and the Axis are taking losses as well.

I shift a ton of Armour out west. Seattle feels like it’s just about to be on the chopping block but also feels like a place I can save with just masses of Armoured Divisions and furious counter attacks. I’m stripping some of that armour from the Pittsburgh concentration and the San Francisco area loses both of their Armoured Divisions. The rest is reinforcements.

Moving that much does have a cost in that the National Guard Corp that arrived can’t find the transport to move even a single division but this is the sort of problem that 40,000 rail transport will ultimately sort out.

The rest of the map is just some minor Axis advances here and there and me tossing a one hex advance toward Pittsburgh back. Maybe slightly faster in Mexico but not meaningfully and here my defence is maybe the strongest.

Allied Loss Rate = 178
Axis Loss Rate = 220
Spread = -42

New York City falls = 83%

The Allied retreat from New York is a disaster with at least a dozen divisions being destroyed

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 33
Another early turn ending for me. I miss out on a lot of counter attacks I was planning but it is not completely the end of the world. That said a fair bit looks like it might get cut off and I’ll probably not manage to save it. The thing I cannot completely grok at the moment is the spread is still basically -40 my favour. I’ve lost a fair bit over the last 5 or 6 turns. The fall of New York has really been this story of stuff getting cut off and not escaping.

However, this is just not showing up in the spread. I’m essentially out of Rifle Squad AT- and even the M105 Shermans are in short supply. My units are not just coming back. It is not a complete crisis or anything but lots of units read as eliminated and yet the spread simply does not shift.

The overall theme here is pretty unchanged. Axis advance from the coast of Lake Ontario down to Williamsport. Attacks outside of that stretch of the map are rare. Nonexistent in Mexico where the Panzers pull back. I am guessing to resupply. There is a solid Japanese push for Seattle.

My turn once more see’s really heavy shifting of armoured Divisions and HQs as well as some Infantry to the Vancouver landing. Primary goal is to make sure the Japanese don’t capture Seattle. The small landing of Japanese would also be vulnerable to just being driven off the continent I should think.

The problem with moving so much Armour is I once again get to my National Guard (and now the Canadian Guard) and I have no rail transport left. Next turn I guess.

Mexico is a front that is rapidly changing. A handful of turns ago I was thinking I need to break contact. It then shifted to make a double line and prepare to defend Mexico. Now I think Mexico is maybe the area where I am both relatively the strongest (with the possible exception of the area around Vancouver) and also a place where a counter attack forces Chris to either try and defend with Axis minors or bring the German panzers back to the front. I am fine with either.

Vancouver falls = 74%

Plans shift quickly in Mexico

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[golden delicious]

However, this is just not showing up in the spread. I’m essentially out of Rifle Squad AT- and even the M105 Shermans are in short supply. My units are not just coming back. It is not a complete crisis or anything but lots of units read as eliminated and yet the spread simply does not shift.

This is not really a mystery. Between the aggressive frontloading of sealift and pushing their forces hard, the Axis have put their loss penalty up 110 points in 12 turns.

Yes your army has definitely taken a beating- but only 80 points of beating. Remember, loss penalty is driven by AP strength of equipment, meaning a rifle AT- squad is worth about a third of a 105mm Howitzer. You probably have a good deal more artillery on the board than you did 12 turns ago, as the units which were reconstituting around turn 20 were probably coming back as shells missing most of their heavy equipment due to the big pool of rifle squads, and have been quietly filling up with everything else due to your high replacement rate.

If losses follow this trajectory then you would in theory be at a loss penalty of 500 by turn 90, with half your force wiped out. But the Axis would be at 660, leaving only a third of their equipment on the board.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 34
Well a number of shifts this turn. I suspect my plan to move the Canadians to another part of the front is going to get delayed. There are signs that there will be a renewed try Quebec and Montreal. Some shifting of units and the Swedes appear to be heading this way.

My counter push against the Vancouver bridgehead kicks off hard. I think I cut a bunch of Japanese units off. Efforts to throw this back into the sea shall continue.

Could not move every last unit by rail this turn but just one National Guard is left waiting for the train. The Canadian Guard and the 5th National Guard arrive in New York. I should be able to manage a double line along this front from now on.

Finally, I lose more stacks this turn. It finally has an impact on the spread with the gap closing by 10 points. It is now -30 in my favour while it has hung out at -40 for a long time.

All that said I think I recover as the number of units cut off that can be killed is running out and also the fighting along the main line of resistance is about to become primarily Canadians and National Guard units and I have extremely deep pools of replacements for these units.

The Japanese are being driven back into the sea

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