A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Med.

Non-Combat Land Moves.
Algeria.

05-AL-Med-LM-Algeria-CL.png (20.1 KiB) Viewed 91 times

Joint-Army Cyrenacia.

05-AL-Med-LM-Joint-Army-Cyrenacia.png (10.4 KiB) Viewed 91 times

Map.

05-AL-Med-Map.png (1.89 MiB) Viewed 91 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Med.

Morocco.

05-AL-Med-Debark-Morocco-CL.png (10.77 KiB) Viewed 91 times

05-AL-Med-Morocco.png (786.67 KiB) Viewed 91 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Pacific.

Malaya.

05-AL-Pacific-CW-CL.png (23.78 KiB) Viewed 88 times

05-AL-Pacific-LC-NW-1-Telok-Betong.png (266.39 KiB) Viewed 88 times

05-AL-Pacific-NEI-Malaya-Map.png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 88 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Pacific.

Bismarck Sea.

05-AL-Pacific-USN-Bismack-Sea-CL.png (59.34 KiB) Viewed 86 times

Naval Search.

05-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NS.png (197.13 KiB) Viewed 86 times

05-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NS-2.png (183.01 KiB) Viewed 86 times

US Production.

05-AL-PTO-US-Production-Post-NM.png (243.1 KiB) Viewed 86 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Pacific.

Bismarck Sea.

05-AL-Pacific-USN-Bismarck-Sea.png (1 MiB) Viewed 86 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Pacific.

The Marianas & Bismarck Sea - Naval Searches.

05-AL-Pacific-Marianas-Bismarck-Sea-NS-NC.png (14.59 KiB) Viewed 84 times

05-AL-PTO-The-Marianas-NS-NC.png (183.36 KiB) Viewed 84 times

05-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NS.png (197.13 KiB) Viewed 84 times

05-AL-PTO-Bismarck-Sea-NS-2.png (183.01 KiB) Viewed 84 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Allied #5. Pacific.

The Solomons.

05-AL-PTO-The-Solomons-CL.png (43.5 KiB) Viewed 82 times

05-AL-Pacific-Truk-LC-1.png (169.22 KiB) Viewed 82 times

05-AL-Pacific-Kwajalein-LC-2.png (156.48 KiB) Viewed 82 times

05-AL-Pacific-USN-Solomns-Marianas-Bismarck-Sea.png (536.4 KiB) Viewed 82 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Weather.

Yikes!

07-AX-Weather-CL.png (11.14 KiB) Viewed 77 times

07-AX-Weather-Report.png (86.33 KiB) Viewed 77 times

07-AX-Weather-Map.png (82.78 KiB) Viewed 77 times

[rkr1958]

Well, apparently there's been a "Stars & Stripes" reporter embedded with the 10th Mtn division since training.

05-AL-Pacific-Truk-LC-1.png (169.22 KiB) Viewed 61 times

05-AL-Pacific-US-10th-Mtn-Div-Truk.png (2.65 MiB) Viewed 61 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Impulse Planning.

10% last impulse, < 46% last axis impulse.

Germany – Land
1. Atlantic – GER-WAR-5138, “Interdict Atlantic CPs”, previously marked as fail (specifically elements (A) & (D)) and closed; was reopened including elements (A), (C) & (D). Note (C) previously marked as OBE.
2. With storms in the Faeroes Gap and Bay Biscay, both of which include organized subs/U-boats, a risk-reward, more accurately a gain/loss, analysis for both sea areas was performed using a (very) alpha version of the EXCEL based Sub-Risk-Analysis tool.
3. With storms grounding allied air, which results in the negation (reduction) of allied search numbers, ASW and the need for the axis to spend 4 SPs to force a sub combat; Ge/It risk significantly shifts down.
4. However; with this shift “significant” enough to “risk” search given the gain?
5. The G/L (gain/loss) ratio for the Faeroes Gap was 1.979 and for the Bay of Biscay was 1.515.
6. Given that these two ratios seem pretty solid in Ge/It’s favor; it was decided to search for all CPs in both sea areas (Faeroes Gap & Bay of Biscay) using Italian subs in both to search.
7. Going back to GER-WAR-5138, (a) sink/abort 6+ CPs & (c) inflict equal or greater loss than received.
8. Anti-Partisan – review all potential areas.
9. Eastern Front – make adjustments as necessary.
10. Review production.

Active WAR.

07-AX-WAR-Germany.png (40.97 KiB) Viewed 38 times

Atlantic - Faeroes Gap, Bay of Biscay. Gain/Risk Assessment.

07-AX-Atlantic-Sub-Gain-Risk-Calculations.png (46.77 KiB) Viewed 38 times

Italy – Combine
1. Italian Sub Gps search Faeroes Gap & Bay of Biscay.
2. Med – Corsica, LM 1 of 2. LBA Terr -> E1-Ajaccio; this puts ZOC over all the island except for Ajaccio, which guarantees 1+ str notional over all the island except Ajaccio.
3. With Italian TRS Gp damaged; this means that Italy will need to get an inf div to Ajaccio to satisfy element (a) of ITA-WAR-110, “Corsica Garrison”.
4. This will NOT be done this impulse, or even this turn.
5. A new element, (C) build 1st inf div, is added to ITA-WAR-110 with the intention of deploying to Ajaccio in the hope is that Italy can get this done before the allies can break [Italian] supply in the West Med and capture Ajaccio
6. However; LBA Terr move will ensure that Corsica is covered against inf div invasion from the Italian Coast.
7. Note that Sardinia is covered from inf div invasion both the Italian Coast and West Med.
8. East Africa – no move(s).
9. Review production.

Active WAR.

07-AX-WAR-Italy.png (36.53 KiB) Viewed 38 times

Italian Force Pool (Inf Div).

07-AX-IP-Italian-Inf-Div-Force-Pool.png (36.93 KiB) Viewed 38 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Impulse Planning.

10% last impulse, < 46% last axis impulse.

Japan – Combine
1. Pacific - LM 1 of 3. NEI Partisan, E1 to NW1-Palembang 2 Oil.
2. This gives the NEI Partisan a 4.5% chance of turn ending this impulse, Japan getting initiative and moving first next turn and walking into an empty Palembang Oil x 2.
3. While, not great; this move comes with 0% risk and is definitely worth the shot.
4. Asian- LM 2-3/3. Terauchi HQ-1 & 1st inf army stack -> Antimony RP (NE1-Hengyang).
5. Pacific – South China Sea, find & sink RN supply CP break supply to NEI Sumatra & Java.

Active WAR.

07-AX-WAR-JPN.png (67.45 KiB) Viewed 38 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Impulse Planning.

Actions & Activities Available.

07-AX-Actions-Activities-Available.png (35.01 KiB) Viewed 38 times

Impulse & Initiative Info.

07-AX-Initiative-Impulse-Info.png (79.06 KiB) Viewed 38 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Pacific - No Search, No Combat.

07-AX-Pacific-NS-NC-CL.png (9.29 KiB) Viewed 30 times

The Marianas.

07-AX-Pacific-The-Marianas-NC-NS.png (202.15 KiB) Viewed 30 times

Bismarck Sea.

07-AX-Pacific-Bismarck-Sea-NC-NS.png (212.77 KiB) Viewed 30 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Pacific - South China Sea.

07-AX-Pacific-South-China-Sea-CL.png (20.09 KiB) Viewed 30 times

07-AX-Pacific-South-China-Sea-NC-1.png (207.53 KiB) Viewed 30 times

07-AX-Pacific-South-China-Sea-NC-1b.png (220.86 KiB) Viewed 30 times

07-AX-Pacific-South-China-Sea-NC-1c.png (225.51 KiB) Viewed 30 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Med - West Med.

07-AX-Med-West-Med-CL.png (10.42 KiB) Viewed 30 times

07-AX-Med-West-Med-NS-NC.png (256.48 KiB) Viewed 30 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Atlantic - Faeroes Gap (1/2).

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-CL.png (25.04 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1.png (218.86 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1b.png (157.47 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1c.png (224.73 KiB) Viewed 29 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Atlantic - Faeroes Gap (2/2).

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1d.png (181.51 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1e.png (182 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Faeroes-Gap-NC-1f.png (182 KiB) Viewed 29 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Atlantic - Bay of Biscay (1/2).

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-CL.png (26.16 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1.png (231.63 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1b.png (179.29 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1c.png (243.33 KiB) Viewed 29 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Naval Searches.

Atlantic - Bay of Biscay (2/2).

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1d.png (192.79 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1e.png (180.63 KiB) Viewed 29 times

07-AX-Atlantic-Bay-of-Biscay-NC-1f.png (199.17 KiB) Viewed 29 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 16. Mar/Apr 1942. Axis #7. Atlantic.

1. Atlantic – GER-WAR-5138, “Interdict Atlantic CPs”, previously marked as fail (specifically elements (A) & (D)) and closed; was reopened including elements (A), (C) & (D). Note (C) previously marked as OBE.
2. With storms in the Faeroes Gap and Bay Biscay, both of which include organized subs/U-boats, a risk-reward, more accurately a gain/loss, analysis for both sea areas was performed using a (very) alpha version of the EXCEL based Sub-Risk-Analysis tool.
3. With storms grounding allied air, which results in the negation (reduction) of allied search numbers, ASW and the need for the axis to spend 4 SPs to force a sub combat; Ge/It risk significantly shifts down.
4. However; is this shift “significant” enough to “risk” search given the gain?
5. The G/L (gain/loss) ratio for the Faeroes Gap was 1.979 and for the Bay of Biscay was 1.515.
6. Given that these two ratios seem pretty solid in Ge/It’s favor; it was decided to search for all CPs in both sea areas (Faeroes Gap & Bay of Biscay) using Italian subs in both to search.
7. Going back to GER-WAR-5138, (a) sink/abort 6+ CPs & (c) inflict equal or greater loss than received.

07-AX-Atlantic-Wargaming-vs-reality.png (4.04 MiB) Viewed 22 times