Grand Campaign --- Q-Ball vs Sertorius21

[Sertorius21]

But of course the nice thing with a Russian army at 7m+ on the map is that there is no let-up. The LW tried to give a sense of where the next blow would come, and almost failed miserably at establishing any abnormal concentration of forces. Such was the case until a second round in and near Novgorod brought information back of 3 units per hex in a couple of places. So reserves were rushed near a line of woods that would be easier to tackle than marsh or forest terrain.

Q-Ball told me that seeing slightly beefed up defences after the air recon lead him to launch his attack early. Only one hex was assaulted, with Guards Cav and a tank corps exploiting in the narrow gap. The LW division entrenched in the forest behind the front was pushed. Having reserves available enabled to throw the intruders out, without attempting to reoccupy the line. The Russians advanced again, with two corps and an infantry division. Again they were counterattacked, and this time I was not surprised by the costly outcome. The defenders lost very little in their retreat but at least several units had been defeated and would need time to become attacking assets again. As Guards corps came in the breach, all attempts at counter attacking were put on hold.




When looking at the losses, I realise that I had quoted the wrong figure for the difficult attack near Kiev. Whilst higher than those of the Germans, Russian losses were rather balanced.

All this was taking place while the steamroller continued to dismantle my army in the Pripet. More positively, any move in open terrain near Poltava or Dnepropetrovsk carried a hefty cost as the retreating army retained a lot of clout. The Axis was pretty stretched though. As there is no way the Germans can successfully hold onto a position that the Russians want, my objective is to cause as many losses as possible and hope that the Red Army will cease to grow or even start to decline. So far, I have the feeling of "vider l'océan à la petite cuillère" (empty the ocean with a tea spoon), and this is only the beginning of 1943!

[Q-Ball]

March 7, 1943

Yes, those counterattacks certainly annoying; this is a few from the March 7 turn. When Soviet units rout, it gets ugly in terms of losses; obviously the Commisars not doing their job in instilling the proper love of Motherland. I think we'll have to shoot some people to sort this out, or build some NKVD blocking detachments:

3-7-43GermanAttacks.jpg (651.56 KiB) Viewed 583 times

Several of those; here are the losses sorted to AXIS ACTION phase; that's a 100 to 7 loss ratio.....not good!

3-7-43Losses.jpg (78.11 KiB) Viewed 583 times

I pointed this out before; at the risk of OPS SEC leaks here, we are still struggling in the GUNS category; we have plenty of LIGHT ARTILLERY and ROCKETS, and enough Field Guns; everything else is short.

The solution to this shortage is several fold IMO:

1. I am not building many ARTILLERY DIVISIONS
2. Using more ROCKET units as Artillery SUs; so I'm builidng Heavy Rocket Bn and Light Rocket Regt. These units are not amazing in a vacuum, but they are better than nothing, and better than having an empty slot
3. Using more TANK SUs: I also seem to have plenty of guns when the gun has tracks and an armored box around it. So we're going to use/deploy more of these aggressively.

I'm doing OK on Vehicles; not a huge pool, but enough for active units. Vehicle numbers are growing each month, so by 1944 I should be pretty mobile without an issue.

3-7-43Prod-VEH.jpg (186.51 KiB) Viewed 583 times

[Sertorius21]

We are now mid-July 1943 and the Russian army on the map is 7.5m strong, a dauting challenge for very stretched German forces. Anyway here is a snapshot of what happened after a few mud turns.

In essence, most of the action was business as usual with pretty strong assaults against positions that usually were held by one strong German division and one Hungarian one, under German HQ. The first two under Grechko are part of the massive wedge being driven through the Pripet marshes, along an axis straight west of Chernigov. You can see that Q-Ball has no issue bringing a fair degree of concentration of his heavy hitters. Even well entrenched troops in excellent defensive terrain are ejected each time.

The third attack against von Buneau took place NW of Kiev.




What I do not really understand is how, for instance on the last attack, the 25th Guards Corps can contribute 651 points. It should suffer from the concentration rules whereby an attack with more than 28 points of "staking" leads to some elements not firing. Even without this aspect, a 65 points CV is more than what I have ever been able to field, the best I ever achieved with GD being 55 (down from a printed 73). Also I would have expected tank units to be penalised when attacking swamps, so was amazed at such an outcome. Anyone with explanations is welcome.

[Sertorius21]

When you think you have seen the worst from the Russians, they manage to pull off one more rabbit. The next week, they throw back another stack from the swamp with nearly 350,000 men, well over 6,000 guns and a few tanks as well.




Obviously I try to find ways to slow down this juggernaut but cannot find any solution apart from inflicting as many casualties as possible elsewhere. The withdrawal behind the Dniepr had not been completed totally by early May, which still brought the odd opportunity to strike. Sometimes I was lucky in finding unsupported divisions, such as these two that depended on Stavka, hence lost a lot through lack of support and very heavy odds.




The Panzer generally tried to avoid any target defended by Guards, in particular airborne units that tend to withdraw with no or low additional losses. In this instance, there was an opportunity to strike 4 Guards Cav at decent odds and follow up against one of the units that had retreated only one hex.

Nevertheless the time had come to withdraw behind the great river barrier of the Dniepr.

[Sertorius21]

The week of May 9th did not really bring any relief for the Germans in the Centre and the Hungarians fighting with them. Nearly 370,000 men surged forward, 6,600 guns and about 700 tanks. Eibl did really well in providing support but this was insufficient in this instance as in the next attack.




Balck or Rommel are not the only ones pushing back as hard as they can. What matters more is to find units in the open and then the wealth of strong leaders, coupled with adequate (or lucky!) positioning of a few rapid units, helps to launch a couple of highly targeted attacks. Weiss is a strong leader from the get go and, with experience, improved his rating. He is one of those leaders I would certainly not want to lose.

[Sertorius21]

At that point, I was expecting a Russian move in strength against the marsh zone in the southward bend of the Dnepr. Any hex won can then be occupied by strong cavalry units that are difficult to dislodge. So I tried to protect this avenue, and had to accept that another Russian wedge crashed onto the Melitopol line. I probably did not position my defense adequately, which helped Q-Ball take out two hexes in the same turn. Mackensen counter attacked at expected odds of over 4:1, with the Guards corps low on CPPs and high on fatigue, this being offset by a level 1 fort.

The outcome was not entirely satisfactory but at least some Soviet units were repulsed.



From a pure losses perspective, this exchange is in the German's favour, but the defensive line was eroded faster than expected.

[Sertorius21]

The following turn saw another successful Russian attack, followed by a counter attack with strictly the same expected odds as the previous week. But whether the level 1 fort had been ignored in the initial battle odds or the composition of the Russian stack played a large role, the outcome was this time more favourable. I had to commit GD though. While the weather was rainy, there was a bit of dry ground from which the Pz could launch their attack, hence not be penalised by light mud.




Meanwhile, the LW spotted large Russian concentrations between Vitebsk and Smolensk and near Velikyie Luki. One hint was given by 8 Guards Corps, which came out of the line in the marshes north of VL and was visible near this town two turns later. So in all likelihood, another set of artillery barrages was about to begin. I think it was around this period that the massive wedge in the centre did pause for one week.

[Sertorius21]

As expected, the storm broke near Vitebsk, although initially only from the direction of Smolensk. For a couple of turns, the Velikiye Luki area remained abnormally quiet. A counterattack punished some of the ordinary infantry that advanced alongside the Guards corps. This was nevertheless a good start for the Russians, even if the wins at low odds were costly.




I do not remember if things moved much in the centre on that turn, nor around Melitopol.

[Sertorius21]

The last week of May was far more active, with heavy action around Velikiye Luki and 6 Russian attacks altogether. I didn't know exactly what forces had been amassed near VL and did not try to second guess where the blow would land, so concentrated on giving strong air cover and adequate artillery to 9 Army in charge of the area. This air cover also helped the XXXXII corps near Vitebsk, although not sufficiently to stop the attack there.




Further south, Henrici's talent and resources were insufficient to prevent two more defeats. I had hoped that, by bringing my best leader for this type of action in the area and giving him ample resource, he may have been able to stop an attack from time to time, but this proved totally insufficient. You will notice that 3 Guards corps was able to contribute nearly 800 points to an attack in the swamps. Quite a performance.




Rommel was no more successful near Melitopol, despite support from Mackensen's III PzK who was in charge of the Rumanian division. Sadly I couldn't disband the fort earlier as it was still level 2 at the beginning of my turn.

[Sertorius21]

We are now entering August, which is historically when the major Russian offensive started, with the Germans suddenly discovering that they had a much bigger issue than they thought. Given that I have lost track of at least 15 Guards infantry corps and Q-Ball carried zero attack last week and only one this week, I may open the next turn with a massive onslaught in a couple of places, not an enjoyable prospect. Anyway let's stick to the action as it unfolded in June.

While pressure increased markedly in three segments of the line, the Axis was looking for ways to create a bit of trouble elsewhere, as reserves lay idle. Since such reserves would be unlikely to be shifted in any significant numbers and given that the Soviet line would not advance in the open, the only way to deploy them was to hit relatively weak parts of the front. Air reconnaissance played a key part in assessing the risk of large Russian concentrations suddenly surging forward.

A first attack SE of Novgorod involved two infantry divisions and a brigade against single, weak division. Although in a level 3 fortification, this unit was not well supported and lost heavily in the process. The next move would be NE of Kiev, in a zone that had remained extremely quiet since the vast Russian winter offensive that had broken through the mixed German and Hungarian front. A few forays further to the East had been repulsed with heavy losses to the troops caught in the open, then all became quiet again. It also became clear that the best Russian units had been transferred elsewhere.

So Reinhardt was tasked with a reconnaissance in force mission. All being well, it could recapture a couple of airfields and destroy depots, possibly even catch weak units in the open. The action took place over 3/4 weeks and caused a level of losses as well as boost the morale of some German divisions. One of them had a starting point of 62 and went up to 68 in the process. It says a lot about the drop in quality of the Heer.




The airfield north of the Rumanian division was taken but the tally of planes destroyed on the ground proved minimal. Another airfield was captured at the end of May, a disappointing operation. The defense had been estimated at 10 CVs for a couple of weeks and turned out to be almost twice stronger. There was no point in carrying further action without letting troops rest and regain CPPs, by which time the 2 Army and 17 Army had been ordered to withdraw gradually behind the Dnepr, hence to strike at ennemies advancing in the open, if any.




The primary objectives of causing a bit of trouble and improving the experience levels of a few units was achieved though.

[Sertorius21]

Before resuming the narrative of this campaign, let's take a look at the losses incurred and inflicted. The first picture shows the outcome of several weeks of Russian attacks against systematically entrenched positions, whereas the Germans were mostly able to launch counter attacks in the open, with no or low fortifications to overcome.




This means that, so far, German losses are manageable and the Soviet ones are approaching 9m. At the beginning of the campaign, I didn't expect a ratio of 7:1 for armoured vehicles. It is not so much that Q-Ball losses a lot of tanks as the way I use my Panzer, as much as possible as second lines that counterattack if an opportunity arises. Obviously this is not always possible and in a few instances, PzD had to defend and they lost quite a few tanks when attacked. Not much offers resistance to a well prepared Russian attack and damaged vehicles are then lost.

[Sertorius21]

A typical example of the asymmetry of losses is available with the action mid-June between Vitebsk and Smolensk. Hube staged two assaults which pushed back the advancing enemy. As soon as units go into a rout, their casualties rise disproportionately. In this instance, none of the large Russian corps routed, which is often when the tally becomes extreme.




The following week provided an excellent illustration of the risks of attacking in the open. Two successful, yet costly Russian assaults, mobilised the 27 Guards XXX, 2 Guards Cav XXX and 18 Rifle XXX for both of these actions. Having lost CPPs and gained fatigue, plus probably a level of disorganisation, these units were vulnerable to a strike by four divisions, supported by Tiger and Panther battalions. Groß Deutschland does not appear on the report screen as it was attached to III PzK, but it contributed a large chunk of the attacking force. The rout of the rifle corps led to these severe losses.




The other combat had about the same odds and, if my memory is correct, yielded about 8-9,000 men, so the dual action took some of the breath of the Russian offensive in this sector.

[Sertorius21]

We never provided an overall picture of the front, so here is an attempt at making it clear, with apologies for the ugly markers that hide reserves.

Let's start with Army Group North and more specifically 18 Army, south of Leningrad. The positions are generally strong, in rough or forest terrain, with the exception of a few hexes near Novgorod. Having failed to take this city in 1941 is plaguing me because it provides, alongside Leningrad, such a great rail rail hub. Just having captured the ground ahead of this location would have improved my defense, given that there are mostly swamps.

Orianenbaum is weakly defended by the 206 rifle division and a naval infantry brigade. This was to be stormed a couple of weeks later despite the level 5 fortification. As would be expected, what mattered was not so much the number of divisions as the support from the heaviest artillery units and a hefty dose of engineers.




16 Army takes over from Staraya Russa, with generally good defensive terrain but Q-Ball has already launched several operations on that line, so there is not much room for complacency here.




Velikye Luki, here under X corps, is almost at the junction of 16th and 9th armies. The Soviets are pushing relentlessly in this area, not having suffered any reverse despite favourable defensive terrain, ample artillery support and strong leaders at all levels (corps, army, army group).

[Sertorius21]

Let's take a look at Army Group Centre, which starts with 8 Army (at that time Kempf detachment). These troops are in charge of the land bridge between the difficult terrain of the South Valdai and the relative protection of the Dnepr. Vitebsk is an excellent anchor but without armour to sweep the plains, this would be a tempting avenue for an offensive. Actually we have seen a level of heavy fighting already, so the corps commanders are fairly seasoned, the main one being Hube.

You will notice that the HQ of the army group is on the frontline. A number of months ago, the leader (probably still Bock) was fired and replaced by... Keitel. So I placed the HQ on the frontline, hoping for a sudden death of this brilliant leader. This didn't happen but at long last he was dismissed and replaced by another incompetent general, until a few weeks ago when common sense prevailed in a big way.




The next stretch of the front, with 3 PzA, sticks to the Dnepr, with the exception of two divisions in marshes on the other side of the river, giving a bit more depth to the defence. Leaders have not changed since the offensives of the early 1942 winter, so very decent although none of the big names are there.




The next stretch of the front has been abundantly commented as a massive wedge, with an estimated 15 Guards corps (not counting Guards cav, armour, artillery or rockets), is battering the front and steadily pushing it back. No position is safe with such forces, despite Henrici having been sent to slow down the Russian tide. 4 Army receives the help of half a dozen Hungarian divisions which are generally integrated in German corps.

[Sertorius21]

Army Group South follows. Sadly Q-Ball had managed to jump over the major river in several places during the winter, and had extended the bridgehead before a counter attack stabilised the situation just ahead of the Raspoutitsa. 2 PzA is next to 4 PzA, the latter being directly in control of Kiev (2 hexes under the 6 LW division in this picture). If my memory is correct, the Russians had just taken an important marsh hex now occupied by 24 Guards XXX. This is the back door to Kiev and to turning the Dnepr, hence a bit of vigilance is required. All leaders are strong, none being the the stars of the Wehrmacht.





2 Army comes next, with bizarre twists to the line as I am trying to defend on marsh hexes, with strong reserves behind. Reinhardt is in charge of XXXXI PzK and tasked with sweeping the area if need be. Construction of fortifications on the Dnepr had started. 17 Army then takes over in the Kremenchug region. Weiss is the best leader of that army and has already be seen counter attacking a few times.

So far, the Russians have been passive on that front, but even allowing for regular air and land reconnaissance, there is no certainty about what's behind the front line.

[Sertorius21]

Let's conclude this review with the right wing of 17 Army and the more active sectors of 1 PzA and 6 Army. Fairly strong Russian forces have managed to push the Axis line by 20-30km on both sides of Melitopol. The defence could have been conducted more skilfully but counterattacks have kept the Soviets more or less at bay. 1 PzA is endowed with the best that's available to the Wehrmacht in terms of armour (GD, DR and TK have already been seen to intervene alongside a number of PzD) and leaders (Rommel, Mackensen, Balck, Rendulic). The lines are intermingled with those of 6 Army because of the need to build fortifications from time to time, whereas 1 PzA is still in assault mode.

6 Army is holding much of the line, with strong infantry and one leader I didn't know but who has done more than his share: Joseph Harpe (7-7-7-7 7-7) has one of the best ratios of victories to defeats (something like 50 to 4) despite having handled defensive battles in the winder of 1941. Rumanian troops under his command inflicted defeats on attacking Russians in January / February 1942, which Q-Ball said was "embarrassing". His LII corps is now anchoring the extremity of the line.




The Crimea has seen no action for a year. Sevastopol is isolated and the front is static at the Theodosia bottleneck.

[Sertorius21]

The end of June saw a number of painful defensive battles, with four attacks that could all have gone badly for the assaillant. The first one took place between VL and Vitebsk. Admittedly light woods are better than clear steppes, but not ideal to hold on to a determined assault. The same is not true of swamps, yet the defence crumbled despite all units belonging to German corps and being solidly entrenched. It is the wedge that I mentioned earlier with innumerable Guards corps.





There was even more frustration at Vietinghoff's defeat, NW of Kiev for the hex subsequently occupied by 24 Guards XXX (see earlier post). Two thirds of the line were protected by a river, the German division was a strong one and the Rumanians belonged to a German corps. Rommel was also pushed out in the Melitopol sector.

[Sertorius21]

Early July brought a nice variation to this pattern. Not for the VL - Vitebsk sector, which suffered another two defeats, of which one marginal. But the central wedge was quiet for once, I presume after emptying a number of dumps that needed to be replenished.




So the other two attacks took place near Kiev again and near Melitopol as would be expected. The one NW of Kiev targeted a PzD in woods, supported by strong German infantry. Vietinghoff was narrowly defeated, even if the defenders exacted a hefty price from the soviets. I had toyed with the idea of setting a couple of PzD just behind as reserves, but decided against as I was not sure of the outcome, whereas I had so many (in relative terms) near Melitopol that I could count on one or two reacting.

This is exactly what happened with DR (belonging to XXXX PzK) reacting to an attack in the swamps, which led to a very heavy repulse. The 15 Infantry division was taken out of the line and replaced by a fresh unit as the level of fortification has been reduced from 3 to 1, making this location more difficult to hold against a determined push.




I had not put any division in reserve for quite a while as I knew that this may not prove sufficient to blunt assaults and preferred the certainty of planned counterattacks. Yet changing tactics from time to time can bring surprises and force Q-Ball to plan for this contingency.

[tm1]

Question
You wrote in one of your post that Keitel was placed in the Army Group position but did not get killed, however he was replaced by another incompetent officer and then was finally replaced by someone good is that correct ?

So who replaced Keital, then who replaced the next fool, call me curious

And why didn't you just manually replace the Commander yourself ?

[Sertorius21]

I don't remember who replaced Keitel temporarily, but the next decision from the top was to put Manstein in charge.

You would then wonder why he would have been available... Well he had been leading Army Group South until 2 weeks before and was then dismissed! Fortunately, his replacement was Weichs, who has solid credentials.

As to why I hesitate to replace poor commanders manually, it is just a matter of finding the right balance between supporting the construction industry, with a lot of people busy erecting fortifications, and optimising leaders. Don't get me wrong, I do it sometimes. Still I need to weigh up spending 15-30 APs (for army or army group) if I believe that I will need prepared fortifications soon. I didn't even try to figure out the OKH level as the noria involved Halder, Zeitzler, Bock and maybe another one, all good enough in my view. The real dire ones were appointed at lower echelons.

All things being equal, I can currently start 4 fortifications per turn (3 APs each, the cost went down in June or July from 4, a pleasant surprise) and use the other 2 or 3 APs I receive each turn to either disband forts once they are on the frontline, improve depots or just keep hoarded.