Zealand 1985 - Danish Gamble (v1.0)

[Ramosh]

Hello, this is my second scenario for TOAW IV. This time, we're going back to the Cold War era.

For decades, the Polish Coastal Front prepared for one of the most ambitious Warsaw Pact operations in the Baltic: an attack on Denmark.
At the center of the plan stood Zealand — the island guarding the Danish Straits. If Zealand fell, Warsaw Pact naval forces could potentially break out of the Baltic and reach the North Sea.
The original 1977 concept assumed the use of tactical nuclear weapons to paralyze Danish defenses. A conventional assault was considered too risky, perhaps even impossible.

But was that really the case?

Zealand 1985: Danish Gamble lets you test that assumption.

Mode: Primarily designed for PBEM, can be played Warsaw Pact vs NATO AI. Due to TOAW AI limitations in handling complex amphibious operations, the Warsaw Pact side is intended primarily for human play.

Turns: 28 (6-hour turns)
Scale: Operational
IMPORTANT: Please read the enclosed Scenario Briefing and Designer’s Notes PDF before playing.

Technical note: because of the scenario’s size and the amount of naval, air and event activity, I recommend saving frequently. During long sessions TOAW IV may gradually slow down, and in rare cases become unstable. If this happens, save the game, restart TOAW IV, and reload the save.

Here is a summary of one test battle against the NATO AI.

Bornholm is captured. NATO loses part of its reconnaissance capability. Soviet losses are moderate, although around a dozen T-55/PT-76 tanks have been destroyed.

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Two East German regiments land near Korsor with the objective of capturing an important port and Danish naval base. Heavy fighting follows against the Danish Battle Group and the 2nd Zealand Brigade. The port is held despite a counterattack, but casualties are very high. Reinforcements are urgently needed.
The Polish 7th Sea Landing Division arrives at the last possible moment, under cover of darkness, without suffering air strikes.
The situation appears to be under control, but Warsaw Pact ground forces on Zealand are still too weak.
To open a second front, the Warsaw Pact deploys the Soviet 7th Airborne Division from the strategic reserve near Koge. Paratroopers equipped with IFVs drive back the Home Guard and capture the port.

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The Polish 15th Mechanized Division attempts to quickly reinforce the Russian paratroopers at Koge, but its transports come under fire from Stevnsfort’s 150 mm guns. The mechanized
regiment suffers losses. A decision is made to redirect all forces rapidly toward Korsor instead.
Meanwhile, the weather is getting worse and worse for August. Rain and mud are slowing the movement of mechanized units.
After landing, the 15th Division moves its main forces from Korsor toward the center of the island along the Korsor–Ringsted–Koge axis.
The 7th Sea Landing Division advances north to capture a second key port: Kalundborg.
East German forces are tasked with taking control of southern Zealand, but severe supply shortages, bad weather, and heavy losses slow their advance to a crawl. NATO air forces are now gaining a sustained advantage in the air.
The Danish 1st Zealand Brigade launches a counterattack and recaptures Koge. One VDV battalion is eliminated, and the Russians are cut off from their supplies. Another regiment of the 7th Airborne Division captures Faxe.
Near Korsor, East German forces finally crush the remnants of the 2nd Zealand Brigade. Advancing northward, elements of the 7th Sea Landing Division encircle and defeat the main Danish forces in the north. All that remains there is to clear Home Guard units from the northern part of the island.
The Polish 15th Division captures Ringsted with two regiments, continues its eastward advance, reaches undefended Koge, captures Roskilde, and cuts off Copenhagen.

The 15th Division launches a fierce attack and pushes into the suburbs of Copenhagen, but is eventually driven back due to exhaustion and supply shortages. At the last moment, the Danes receive assistance from NATO’s Allied Mobile Force.
The tactical situation is temporarily under control, but the island is already lost to Denmark.
Casualties on both sides are very high, especially in ships, aircraft, and personnel. Warsaw Pact tank losses are estimated at around 80 vehicles.

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This is just one of many possible scenarios that can unfold in Zealand 1985 – Danish Gamble. The outcome depends heavily on the creativity and decisions of the players. PBEM battles can be much more interesting, and it is unlikely that any two playthroughs will ever be exactly the same.

Happy gaming,
Ramosh

[cathar1244]

Very detailed scenario on a little explored topic in wargaming. Thank you!

[Telumar]

Nice work, refreshing deviation from all the WW2 stuff. I like it.

This is from my second game (the NATO PO trashed my landings in my first run), it's at the end of WP turn 6. I have ignored Bornholm, was able to defeat the Danish and the German Navies and had begun airborne operations on turn 3. Polish 6th Airborne brigade was able to take Faxe and could destroy the dreaded Stevsnfort coastal battery before coming under intense pressure from Danish 1st and 2nd Zealand Brigade. This however opened the way for a successfull amphibious assault by Soviet 336th Gds Naval Inf Bde against Kobe which trapped the bulk of both enemy brigades between WP forces and the sea. In the west, the GDR airborne took Korsor by a direct air assault (yes a bit of a gamble) and i landed both GDR Schützenregiments and Polish 7th Sealanding brigade. The Polish brigade is getting ready for a dash towards Kalundborg which will further cripple NATO supplies while next turn Polish 15th Mech Division will begin to land at Kobe with the task of opening operations against Kopenhagen. GDR land forces will continue towards Ringsted and Naestved while 336th Gds Naval Inf Bde will keep up pressure against the trapped Danes and shield Kobe against the west.

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Some observations: Interesting choice of GDR unit colours no but seriously: I see you set MRPB at 15. I do not know your rationale here, but imho it makes only sense with a setting below 10. Also you use command groups in every unit. I suppose this is merely for chrome reasons.

I confess I used the GDR rocket artillery against West German airfields. I don't know if you intended this to be possible though.

[Ramosh]

That's great that you liked it.
Your approach to the game against NATO PO is almost perfect—great job. If it looks like this by turn 6, the island is practically captured.

And how did you manage to move the GDR regiments to Korsor without neutralizing Langelandsfort? Were there any casualties from coastal artillery there?

Playing against NATO PO is fairly straightforward, because a human player wouldn’t allow such an encirclement of the most valuable units.
Unfortunately, the TOAW engine has its limitations. That’s why PBEM seems to be the ideal solution.

Since the paratrooper landings went so smoothly, I’m wondering about the role of JG71 in the scenario, because that changes the situation in the air right from the start of the game. This unit does not officially appear in AIRBALTAP, but since it is in the theater, its arrival to assist the West German Air Force—which has no fighter aircraft of its own—is highly likely. Here, I placed this formation starting in Turn 3 so that the Warsaw Pact would have a “window” for the drop, which is likely how it would have played out in reality. In tests, when JG71 was on the map from the start, the airborne landings weren’t as effective anymore. Tornado attacks are also better because they have more fighter cover. This is something to think about, and it’s great that it came up in your game.

Indeed, if a “mass” of troops comes in, the Danes have a big problem—this is also what NATO actually feared, hence the main effort went toward the sea/mines/air force.
Unfortunately, in TOAW we don’t have, for example, submarines or minesweepers—that would change a lot.

As for the color of the GDR units, I thought it was important to maintain “color consistency” with the German flag—and indeed, all the colors are present there.

As for MRB=15, it can indeed be changed to 10
The command group has a large number of units, because I assumed that, for example, paratroopers would tend to fight in isolation, in separate groups, not necessarily alongside their own divisional HQ.
And using SCUDs against airfields is exactly what should be done.

[Ramosh]

I figured out the answer to my own question about the “easy” Korsor—it was my mistake on the map.Crossing between Lolland and Falster through the (actually very narrow) strait was practically impossible for fleet units to navigate (unfortunately, not according to the TOAW map). The Guldborgsund was prepared for rapid mine-laying in the event of a conflict, that's why Langelandsfort guarded the Belts. I'll release a patch today—it'll be fixed, and those suspiciously easy GDR landings will be no longer possible, just as it should be.

After correcting the map, a simple FJB-40 drop on Korsor won’t accomplish anything because they’ll be left on their own and isolated; even if they capture the port, no reinforcements would reach them. On the other hand, committing all the paratroopers to one location means they won’t be where they’re actually needed, e.g., to neutralize Langelandsfort, which is necessary for the convoys to pass safely . And that’s exactly what makes it a GAMBLE

[Telumar]

That's great that you liked it.
Your approach to the game against NATO PO is almost perfect—great job. If it looks like this by turn 6, the island is practically captured.

Yes but a) I had an utterly catastrophic landing on my first run and b) started over with the knowledge what to expect and also had your preview screenshots and explanations in the original post as a rough guideline.

In my first run i was not able to put the Stevnsfort battery out of action. IIrc i airdropped the Soviet airborne brigade at Faxe but could not reach the battery due to the ferociuos Danish counterattack. Ship artillery and aircraft were not able to make a dent because the battery unit is full of infantry equipment which makes it less likely to hit a lot of the guns due to TOAWs combat mechanics. If you made the battery a separate unit from the infantry or better even if there was only the guns in the hex it would have been a different story, though maybe a too easy one. In the second run I landed at Faxe and directly next to the battery which worked. The Danish counterattack was ferocious too, but I was able to put the battery out of action because I still had units adjacent to the battery after the counterattck.

And how did you manage to move the GDR regiments to Korsor without neutralizing Langelandsfort? Were there any casualties from coastal artillery there?

I see you answered this yourself. And i wondered why you had airborne units working against the Langelandsfort battery in one of yout screenshots

against NATO PO is fairly straightforward, because a human player wouldn’t allow such an encirclement of the most valuable units.
Unfortunately, the TOAW engine has its limitations. That’s why PBEM seems to be the ideal solution.

Absolutely. The TOAW PO is maybe best on the attack in Bagration like scenarios where it has a massive numerical advantage.

Since the paratrooper landings went so smoothly, I’m wondering about the role of JG71 in the scenario, because that changes the situation in the air right from the start of the game. This unit does not officially appear in AIRBALTAP, but since it is in the theater, its arrival to assist the West German Air Force—which has no fighter aircraft of its own—is highly likely. Here, I placed this formation starting in Turn 3 so that the Warsaw Pact would have a “window” for the drop, which is likely how it would have played out in reality. In tests, when JG71 was on the map from the start, the airborne landings weren’t as effective anymore. Tornado attacks are also better because they have more fighter cover. This is something to think about, and it’s great that it came up in your game.

Hm i did not feel any impact by NATO airforces. The presence of JG 71 I did not feel. There was not a single interception against airlandings, only in the first turn there was some Sea interdiction and only before the first combat round which then saw extensive attacks by the GDR Scuds against the West German Luftwaffe and by various East German, Polish and Soviet aircraft against the F-16s. Obverall absolute losses in the airfield attacks were roughly equal on both sides but I had the numbers to afford it . No NATO air unit has been evaporated but I had significantly reduced them to be of no role at all later in the game. I attached a .sal from the NATO side of things turn 6.

Indeed, if a “mass” of troops comes in, the Danes have a big problem—this is also what NATO actually feared, hence the main effort went toward the sea/mines/air force.

Yes, but the Soviet Naval Infantry Brigade and their Airborne brigade had a tough time though (after the screenshot I posted) until the Polish Mechanized DIvision came in and basically waltzed over the Danes. Once everyone had arrived it was as you said basically over for Danish ground forces. I think an experienced human player would have been able to put up some effective resisitance but without a chance to throw the WP forces back into the sea.

As for the color of the GDR units, I thought it was important to maintain “color consistency” with the German flag—and indeed, all the colors are present there.

Lol yes true. There is no rule about this but the convention is that yellow is either Italians or some Eastern Asian (mostly non communist) forces like Imperial Japan, South Vietnamese, non-communist China. Nevermind, keep it as it is.

As for MRB=15, it can indeed be changed to 10

I personally would go with maybe 5 or 4 but 10 would not change much as there are basically 10 combat rounds anyway. Though I must say it did not 'feel' wrong with the high setting.

The command group has a large number of units, because I assumed that, for example, paratroopers would tend to fight in isolation, in separate groups, not necessarily alongside their own divisional HQ.

Yes but they don't do anything except in HQ units.

[Ramosh]

Version 1.01 has been released.

Changelog:
1. The map has been updated (a restricted zone has been added in Nykobing Falster, simulating NATO minefields) to prevent historically unrealistic attacks on Korsor
2. The MRPB value has now been set to 5

[Ramosh]

Yes but a) I had an utterly catastrophic landing on my first run and b) started over with the knowledge what to expect and also had your preview screenshots and explanations in the original post as a rough guideline.

And that's good, because that's exactly how it should be. NATO was counting on that.

In my first run i was not able to put the Stevnsfort battery out of action. IIrc i airdropped the Soviet airborne brigade at Faxe but could not reach the battery due to the ferociuos Danish counterattack. Ship artillery and aircraft were not able to make a dent because the battery unit is full of infantry equipment which makes it less likely to hit a lot of the guns due to TOAWs combat mechanics. If you made the battery a separate unit from the infantry or better even if there was only the guns in the hex it would have been a different story, though maybe a too easy one. In the second run I landed at Faxe and directly next to the battery which worked. The Danish counterattack was ferocious too, but I was able to put the battery out of action because I still had units adjacent to the battery after the counterattck

.

In reality, Stevnsfort is a fortification carved into the rock, reaching several meters underground. It was intended to be attacked with nuclear weapons; naval artillery would have practically no effect.

Absolutely. The TOAW PO is maybe best on the attack in Bagration like scenarios where it has a massive numerical advantage.

And that's why a proper simulation of the Warsaw Pact landing operation can't be done here. AI/AI tests show a quick NATO victory.

Hm i did not feel any impact by NATO airforces. The presence of JG 71 I did not feel. There was not a single interception against airlandings, only in the first turn there was some Sea interdiction and only before the first combat round which then saw extensive attacks by the GDR Scuds against the West German Luftwaffe and by various East German, Polish and Soviet aircraft against the F-16s. Obverall absolute losses in the airfield attacks were roughly equal on both sides but I had the numbers to afford it . No NATO air unit has been evaporated but I had significantly reduced them to be of no role at all later in the game.

Because JG71 enters in Turn 3. In Turn 1, Air Superiority is 18/7 in favor of the Warsaw Pact; after JG71 enters, it is 18/10. This is a significant difference for intercepting air transports. At the start of the game, the Warsaw Pact has air superiority, but as time goes on, it weakens—due to poorer supply and slower readiness recovery.

I attached a .sal from the NATO side of things turn 6.

Thanks, I'll check it out

Yes, but the Soviet Naval Infantry Brigade and their Airborne brigade had a tough time though (after the screenshot I posted) until the Polish Mechanized DIvision came in and basically waltzed over the Danes. Once everyone had arrived it was as you said basically over for Danish ground forces. I think an experienced human player would have been able to put up some effective resisitance but without a chance to throw the WP forces back into the sea

Keep in mind, though, that the landing near Korsor was unrealistic because of my mistake on the map. You’d have to check it again. But really, if the 15th Division comes in, it’s basically game over. It’s like the situation in Normandy—either you push whatever’s there into the sea right away, or it’s over.

Lol yes true. There is no rule about this but the convention is that yellow is either Italians or some Eastern Asian (mostly non communist) forces like Imperial Japan, South Vietnamese, non-communist China. Nevermind, keep it as it is.

To be honest, I didn't know there was such an 'unwritten' rule.

I personally would go with maybe 5 or 4 but 10 would not change much as there are basically 10 combat rounds anyway. Though I must say it did not 'feel' wrong with the high setting.

I set MRPB to 5 in v1.01

Yes but they don't do anything except in HQ units.

I must have misread the manual, but I thought a command group in a unit isolated from HQ would be useful. I'm keeping it anyway—after all, every battalion has its own command in real life.

[Telumar]

Hm i did not feel any impact by NATO airforces. The presence of JG 71 I did not feel. There was not a single interception against airlandings, only in the first turn there was some Sea interdiction and only before the first combat round which then saw extensive attacks by the GDR Scuds against the West German Luftwaffe and by various East German, Polish and Soviet aircraft against the F-16s. Obverall absolute losses in the airfield attacks were roughly equal on both sides but I had the numbers to afford it . No NATO air unit has been evaporated but I had significantly reduced them to be of no role at all later in the game.

Because JG71 enters in Turn 3. In Turn 1, Air Superiority is 18/7 in favor of the Warsaw Pact; after JG71 enters, it is 18/10. This is a significant difference for intercepting air transports. At the start of the game, the Warsaw Pact has air superiority, but as time goes on, it weakens—due to poorer supply and slower readiness recovery.

Yes but I didn't 'feel' any difference once JG 71 entered and later the british air units. The AS ratio shifted, but there was not much interference with my air ops which by then mainly were AS and CS missions plus one unit on Sea Interdiction (you never know) plus one at Interdiction. Though if the AS ratio would be more WP sided I would have used interdiction misssions way more often. So basically the arrival of additional NATO air assets did at least keep most of my airforce on AS instead interdiction.

@Interdiction: The PO moves AA units in the West German airfields for whatever reasons from hex to hex, often at the beginning of the turn. This then soaks up interdiction attacks which of course suffer losses as the strikes are against AA. I did not know the PO was so gamey lol

[Ramosh]

Yes but I didn't 'feel' any difference once JG 71 entered and later the british air units. The AS ratio shifted, but there was not much interference with my air ops which by then mainly were AS and CS missions plus one unit on Sea Interdiction (you never know) plus one at Interdiction. Though if the AS ratio would be more WP sided I would have used interdiction misssions way more often. So basically the arrival of additional NATO air assets did at least keep most of my airforce on AS instead interdiction.

That's interesting. In my case during the test game I had a real attrition of the WP aircraft - there were only 8 units left by turn 28.

@Interdiction: The PO moves AA units in the West German airfields for whatever reasons from hex to hex, often at the beginning of the turn. This then soaks up interdiction attacks which of course suffer losses as the strikes are against AA. I did not know the PO was so gamey lol

It's really hard to understand the logic of the AI in TOAW IV