Forego Barbarossa?

[rake]

I just downloaded the game onto a new computer. It's been quite a while since I've played (several years, maybe 5), so I'm quite sure I'm going to be rusty.

While returning home from a trip today, I listened to a podcast about Germany foregoing Barbarossa. Instead, the narrators posited the idea of "what if Barbarossa was delayed", as Erich Raeder proposed, with the Germans assisting the Italians in the Mediterranean and the Balkans.

With Greece, the Balkans and Egypt under Axis control, they could attack through the Middle East, leading to an attack on the Soviet Union through the Caucasus. I'm curious whether this might be a viable strategy in the game.

Back when I frequented this forum more often, I don't recall ever seeing anything about this while I was playing.

I'm thinking the following:
A. Foregoing Vichy, taking Southern France and (hopefully) swinging Spain in the Axis direction (with some diplomacy
B. With Spain in the bucket, capturing Gibraltar becomes possible, creating Mussolini's Mare Nostrum
C. Capturing the Balkan, combined with a drive thru Palestine, Syria, Jordan and Iraq, might be enough to push Turkey to the Axis

Obviously, enough troops would need to remain along the (restructured) German/Soviet border to dissuade Stalin from attacking[

Closing the Red Sea & Mediterranean would (I think) seriously disrupt British Asian forces. Capturing the Caucasian oilfields should put a crimp in the Soviets style. Having not played for so long, and never having tried this gambit, I don't know how this would affect US & Soviet mobilization. I'm certain Soviet mobe %age would increase just because of the Balkan Axis presence. And, I certainly expect it to increase the closer the Axis gets to the Soviet/Iranian border.

I'm going to try against the AI. I'd hate to get far down the road and find out that some decisions, or my musculation about the effects of supply on the UK and Soviets stops me dead in my tracks. Surely someone here has at least tried this. I welcome all comments, and would be particularly pleased if someone could point to a post or AAR.

TIA,
Rake

[Bo Rearguard]

It might work against the AI, but I'd be doubtful about trying this strategy against a human player. The survival or non-survival of the Soviet Union literally is the game and you can only tip-toe around it for so long. Just invading a neutral Iraq will result in a 10-15% mobilization shift of the USSR towards joining the Allies. Persia another 20-30%. It makes Turkey unhappy too. I think the reason most players chose early 1941 to focus on Russia, is that it is never that weak again. Never that short of HQs and properly upgraded units. Never that short of fighter units and fortified lines. But with every turn Stalin goes undisturbed he's getting stronger. Plus, every time I've invaded Russia my units from Eastern Europe have reached the Caucasus long before the ones from Africa do. Mainly because of the bad terrain and poor supply corridors especially between Palestine and Iraq. However, if you try this strategy out I'd be curious as to the outcome.

[rake]

Yeah, my biggest worry would have been the time and forces it would take away from a proper Barbarossa. And, I don't believe I would even consider this against a decent player.

Thanks for the reply!

[gronivaure]

Hello,

I'm currently trying this strategy in my current elo game.

I choose this strategy because:

- The British lost many troops defending Paris.

- French troops left the Maginot Line to defend Paris.

- When I took Paris, there were practically only Marseille and Lyon (already surrounded) left to capture.

Furthermore, the British were putting heavy pressure on Libya and were on the verge of taking Tripoli after sinking almost the entire Italian fleet.

In fact, after an airborne operation to take Tunis with air cover, I managed to complete parts A and B of your plan.

It's now March 1942, and part C of the plan is almost complete (only Palestine and Jordan are missing). There's a tank unit in Baghdad.

The problem as you say, and it is a significant one, is that the offensive in Russia was launched at the latest, in October 1941. Russia then launched an offensive with its best troops in Finland, which resisted with German reinforcements. The Russian defensive line on the Dnieper River appeared very strong, and the advance in the Baltic states and towards Smolensk was very very slow.

The Russians attacked Japan after they entering the war in December 1941. The front in Manchuria was stable. As a result, Chinese troops were pushing forward, but the Japanese first line held.
Japan sank a large part of the US fleet (3CVs and about ten warships against 1CV for Japan). It captured the Philippines, Thailand, New Guinea, Samoa, and Vietnam. Fighting was ongoing for Singapore and the Dutch East Indies.

Summary
Axis production is good (over 800 mpp/rev).
Italy is protected. Mare Nostrum!
Russia is very strong but engaged on several fronts, and another could soon open.
British have big losses in land troups but navy is intact, and the US fleet has lost 3 CVs.
Japan will be under intense pressure and must continue its conquests while maintaining its lines in China and Manchuria.

Summer 42 will be décisive!

[Old_Shane]

This would be an interesting AAR if you or Johnny would be so inclined. An update on how this goes in the least would be greatly appreciated!

[gronivaure]

This would be an interesting AAR if you or Johnny would be so inclined. An update on how this goes in the least would be greatly appreciated!

Thank you for your interest. I will post regular updates on the situation as soon as we resume the game.
I'll share the detailed losses and the forces involved.

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