Arriba Espana, Parte 2! A Nationalist PBEM AAR Q-Ball (N) v Przemek (R)

[zebrazwo]

In AE, distance is given as NM

Raid detected at 80 NM

Why is it Raid was detected at 272 Kyds

In WiS?

Which is also a pretty good detection distance (134 NM)

[Q-Ball]

In AE, distance is given as NM

Raid detected at 80 NM

Why is it Raid was detected at 272 Kyds

In WiS?

Which is also a pretty good detection distance (134 NM)

I believe the raid was detected by overflight of a combat unit on the path. It is different than WITP-AE for sure!

January 27, 1937

The Nationalist retreat continues; at this point I will likely have to abandon Zaragossa and pull back from most of Eastern Spain. This is very shocking, as I did not expect to be pushed around like this, but I am........some examples

This is a combat among equal formations east of Zaragossa; my forces dug-in to 1 (about the best I can do without engineers), and force count is roughly equal. I technically won this attack, but the problem is this: I can't stay here and lose 1000 men a turn and sustain this loss rate. I've seen that movie, and I know how it ends.......in low-morale, disrupted formations retreating that can't stop anything and need rest to get strength back:

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Here is another, Southwest of Zaragossa; this is what is looks like when he has some numbers (which the Republic has a larger army at this point). This is 7-1 in an urban area, and if I don't retreat now, I already know it will be painful:

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If you recall, in 1936 I was posting that Turn Summaries showed a consistent inbalance bewteen Nationalist and Republican losses; they were heavily in the Nationalists favor (as it was historically in 1936). Now, every turn looks like this: The Nationalists are getting pounded:

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I've actually done a good job toasting his airforce; for the most part I control the skies. That's great, but it's just not decisive; ground unit bombing is more of a nuisance than a decisive factor, espeically since I can't bomb all vectors at once (the Republic is advancing in at least 7 sectors)

If every turn looks like this, the result is inevitable: Complete defeat of the Nationalists.

So, what to do about it?

Digging doesn't help, because I don't really have many engineering units, and as we've all figured out, entrenchments just take too long in a city hex, and don't really do much in open terrain.

I have to get out of Open Terrain; "Run for the Hills", and this means doing something I am very loathe to do, which is abandon Zaragossa

I'm pretty sure I won't ever get it back either; I just don't see how the Nationalists can win long-term with the engine the way it is. I'm getting beat over and over in straight-up fights.

[Dali101]

In January 1937, practically all parts of the CTV should be created in Italy.
Can you show me a unit that will appear in Spain at that time?

Later, the situation was different. After the defeat of the Italians over Madrid, some Italian units began to be massively supplemented by Spaniards.
Such units were built according to Italian TOE, but in the game they gain Spanish nations.
During the war, the number of such units increases....

But it should not be in the period you describe.

[Dali101]

You assess the overall situation quite realistically.

The initial successes of the nationalists do not need to be overestimated.
The Republic is building up really powerful forces in 1937.
The number of divisions of the Republic at the beginning of 1938 is almost double.
Although some nationalist divisions are somewhat stronger.

The initial quality of the nationalist units was unfortunately subjectively adjusted, reduced.
But in the global of later forces, this is a negligible extent.

Definitely do not expect an easy victory over the Republic.
(as some people here subjectively announce).

[Q-Ball]

You assess the overall situation quite realistically.

The initial successes of the nationalists do not need to be overestimated.
The Republic is building up really powerful forces in 1937.
The number of divisions of the Republic at the beginning of 1938 is almost double.
Although some nationalist divisions are somewhat stronger.

The initial quality of the nationalist units was unfortunately subjectively adjusted, reduced.
But in the global of later forces, this is a negligible extent.

Definitely do not expect an easy victory over the Republic.
(as some people here subjectively announce).

Yes, I think the game models the Republic much more strongly than historical....I didn't realize that. Historically, the Republic, during the entire Civil War, never launched a successful offensive (except maybe the opening days of Teruel, but that ended in disaster). The only battle the Republic won was the Battle of Guadalajara, and in that one the Italian Leadership was very poor.

So, I expected the Republic to be kinda weak still in 1937....NOT the case in-game!

Unless there is a tilt back, I don't think the Nationalists can win the Civil War after 1936

February 4, 1937

Sorry haven't had an update in a bit, but mostly I'm getting pushed back more and more.

Air/Naval War:

This is the one phase going well; at this point I've bombed out most of the Republican airforce on the ground, and there aren't alot of bombers flying on his end. Meanwhile, I am bombing his guys every day. The Republic has lost 429 aircraft so far, and I know from scouting that many of his Soviet units are depleted. I have lost 162 planes, and though I am short some FIATS and Ju-52s, most slots are fill.

Nationalists are winning the air war

Levant:

On the ground, though, things are terrible. He's over the Gallego River north of the city. South of the city, there's a force of 20,000 troops heading NE that I cannot stop. In the center, he assaulted over the Ebro at Casablanca:

-------------------------------------
Weather in hex: Clear wind 0
Republican shock attack at 119, 77 - Casablanca (Light Urban terrain)

Attacker artillery value: 226
Defender artillery value: 0
Attacker adjusted AV: 442
Defender adjusted AV: 45

Engineer Combat Power 76
Attack odds: 9/1 (Highest fort level 0)
Attacker now controls 2 of 5 NM in hex

Attackers managed to cross river

Attacker losses: 824 Casualties
Squads lost: 102 disabled, 3 destroyed
Vehicles lost: 0 disabled, 0 destroyed
Guns lost: 0 disabled, 0 destroyed

Defender losses: 1511 Casualties
Squads lost: 126 disabled, 34 destroyed
Vehicles lost: 58 disabled, 12 destroyed
Guns lost: 1 disabled, 0 destroyed
Misc. lost: 7 disabled, 2 destroyed
Units Destroyed: 0


So yeah, that didn't hold long. I am evacuating the airbase at Garapinillos south of town.

Clearly, he's trying to envelop Zaragossa, rather than attack it head-on. That's going to work, because I think I need to pull back into Navarre where the terrain is better and hope to form a viable defense line there. Because here, it's just not going to work.

Here is the latest map; you can see his attack vectors. To the West, below Burgos, I am counterattacking; I need to halt this direction first because the loss of Burgos means the loss of the war.

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North Update:

Very static up north; I've had to pull units from Bilbao in order to counter his moves. I make Cautious attacks daily at 0-1 odds, just to keep the supply burn up. The Navy bombards every day. It's been at least 2 months since any ship made it from the USSR, and I think longer (have to look it up in the AAR).

Up here, I have to just keep him bottled up until the supplies run out; I won't be able to muscle him out of Bilbao. My forces are actually outnumbered up here, as he has at least 60,000 troops total.
If he is ever able to open a supply line to Bilbao, that would also end the game.

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Compounding Issues:

One issue I think many are reporting is the difficulty of defense. The Nationalists have power early. I think one of the major issues is the compounding effect of retreats.

If you stay in a hex and fight it out until a retreat is forced, that often trashes the morale of a unit, and disables it. Often, the unit will look something like this one (and this guy has been resting for 3 days):

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The problem is this unit cannot really effectively defend, even with a couple days breather (which this unit has had). Attackers, in the meantime, probably have some disablements, but otherwise things are fine. So, once the ball starts rolling on an attack, it is VERY hard to stop.

I wonder if this is an issue that needs to be looked at; it takes a LONG time, upwards of 2 weeks, for a unit to recover morale into the 70s. Plus recover disablements. The problem is when you are manning a front, you don't have 2 weeks.

Overall, attacking is too easy IMO........

OOB:

Another aspect is replacements.

My esteemed opponent says that he has plenty of Squads and Devices in the pool, and is not experiencing any shortages (I could probably ask him to inventory to check closely).

The Nationalist Pools are empty of the following:

Infanteria 36
Volunteer 37
Montana 38
All Mortars
All Heavy MGs
All light MGs, except the Chauchat (of which are are MOUNTAINS of this type)

Those are the core Squads the Nationalist army needs. Army of Africa is OK, and there is just enough it seems for the Militias (Falange and Requetes).

So, the Republic can absorb MANY more losses (he has to this point), while the Nationalists are going to run hand to mouth on the infantry.

Historically, this was the case; the Republic had more men, and even not enough Rifles to equip them all! So that's fine, but the Nationalist army also maintained a qualitative edge the entire war, one I don't see in evidence (I detailed that before)

I'll post separately on the Chauchats....kind of weird there are so many

[Dali101]

The Chauchalt LMG was captured at sea in the amount of about 5000 pieces and immediately put into service.
(I don't remember the details anymore...)
Yes, it is the worst LMG in the game, that's true and it reflects reality.
But it's better than no LMG...

[Dali101]

Infantry replacements in general...

Infantry Squad production was set according to the game with AI...

There should have been enough of them, but not an excessively large number (with short-term exceptions)

Nobody counted on a Stalingrad-type battle, where thousands of men would die on the front every day, that's true...

The same problem should be on the Republic's side.
Once it exhausts its relatively large reserves of various types of militia and switches to standard infantry 37, it should be in a similar situation.

[Q-Ball]

Infantry replacements in general...

Infantry Squad production was set according to the game with AI...

There should have been enough of them, but not an excessively large number (with short-term exceptions)

Nobody counted on a Stalingrad-type battle, where thousands of men would die on the front every day, that's true...

The same problem should be on the Republic's side.
Once it exhausts its relatively large reserves of various types of militia and switches to standard infantry 37, it should be in a similar situation.

Another issue is that neither myself or my opponent have been doing upgrades....the process escaped both of us until now. That also means I have lots of "old" squads in the pool, like Requetes 36 and Volunteer 36, that I can't use or get to. Had I expanded those Requetes units earlier, they would have absorbed all those squads, THEN upgraded. As it stands I don't have enough Requetes 37 squads for all the slots now. And I am sure he's in the same boat.

We are both probably grinding every day more than the real Spanish Civil War, and I think most games are going to be like that

February 10, 1937

Naval/Air:

Republic appears to be down to about 10-12 bombers that make daily bombing runs; the rest are toast, and I don't see alot fighters. We are bombing more than ever.

I am very slowly moving the CVT around Africa. This is going to take forever, and there's another problem: There is no way for Italian units to take replacements in Spain! They are looking into that

Counterattack

By stripping the North, we have launched a counterattack on the Republican offensive north of Madrid. We are pushing back the spearheads, and I hope to cut them off; I have 2500 troops surrounded in one spot we hope to destroy, we will see if we can next turn! They are already in very bad shape having been pushed back a few times.

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[Dali101]

you can get to the older infantry type completely normally.
Manual downgrade.
so it must be a direct upgrade line.

[Dali101]

see mail....

[Q-Ball]

February 14, 1937

The Republican Offensive is winding down thanks to successful counterattacks, but a different crisis has popped-up: A fuel crisis. More details to follow.....

Zaragossa:

Still some pressure in this direction, particulalry up north toward Jaca, where I have very few troops; I am counting on him not going far, since he really needs the rail junction at Zaragossa to push significantly West. Still, it's yet another place I need to send some reinforcements to.

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North of Madrid:

Nationalist Counterattacks have the Republicans retreating here. We destroyed 22 units in a stack at San Esteban, about 5000 men; we nearly cut-off another 9000 trying to retreat toward Somsonierra and mountains, but he managed to move my small blocking formation. Very close call! Too bad, but at least he is moving backward

This is going to free-up troops to reinforce Zaragossa, so I think I have this contained

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Gijon/Bilbao:

That's good, because I am in trouble at both Gijon and Bilbao. Despite no supplies coming in for months, he's attacking out of both places, and his forces are growing; he must really have a massive stockpile of supplies! Przemek did share that he was moving supplies aggressively from Leningrad/Murmansk before the siege started. HIs forces are actually growing, so he's using supplies to replace losses AND build new units!

I need to reinforce, but with the other offensive I am finding it difficult to find the men. But it has to happen, because I can't let the Republic Del Norte grow again!

Fuel Crisis:

This is now the biggest problem: A global fuel crisis. I am grounding the Air Force and Navy until I can stabilize.

In Spain, I have about 45,000 fuel between Vigo and El Ferrol; both ports are on REPEL and have been for some time. I am requesting FUEL inland, but it's moving only in a trickle. I have another 25,000 fuel at Cadiz/Huelva, same sitaution. That's basically it for domestic supplies.

All cities west of Leon are EMPTY. Yes, at ZERO fuel. That's a crisis!

In terms of fuel SOURCES, Kiel is down to 15,000, and I have a convoy right now picking most of that up.

Canarias is empty. I've been moving OIL to Canarias to increase fuel, but pulling it all out.

The only significant Fuel Sources left are Naples (where I can't pull it from due to the MED being close and Italian ships vulnerable), and Spanish Guinea (which is a LONG way away)

I have not aggressively dumped trucks for Horse Transport; I suppose I should've started earlier, but seems like the game SHOULD allow the Nationalists to run trucks, because they did historically

Seems like there are a couple problems with the engine IMO: Not enough fuel flowing on the map, and not enough global supply

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[Q-Ball]

Dear Reader, it looks like we will be pausing this AAR, to start a new one focused on a new build. This was definitely a good learning experience. Please leave your comments if there's anything else you want to know on this game!