Fall Grau 2.29 Jeremy (Axis) vs. Chris (Allies)

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Fall Grau 2.29 Jeremy (Axis) vs. Chris (Allies)

Chris and I swap sides after our last game.

Turn 1
I hit a semi-circle of beaches starting with Puerto Barrios, though here I just land one light Division.

Tampico is the first of my major landings followed by Galveston and finally Mobile.

The plan for this one is something I have been wanting to try out for a while. My primary goal is to drive from Galveston to San Diago and Los Angeles where I’ll welcome the Japanese ashore and, with the aid of some German units, but especially rail repair units, they can fully support the Axis conquest of North America.

So, I want to cover why I think this might be a good plan and how the other landings play a part in the plan. One of the reasons I think this might work well as a plan is the scenario has been rejigged so the Allies are a lot more resilient early but, with a lower replacement rate, they are weaker in the long run.

So, if my take on this is correct then the best Axis response is to play for the long game while making sure not to lose the short one. Basically, the ability to most fully utilize the Japanese – even if it is only in the 2nd half of the game is supposed to pay off.

The Mexican attack basically follows from this drive to the Pacific Coast. Mexico can be cut off from supplies so long as Mexico City itself is taken, there is no way for supplies from the rest of America can reach Mexico and the few and weak supply points in Central America are either blocked or captured.

The attack on Central America gets rid of the rest of the supply points out here (though it is trivial to block the supply from getting north in any case) and can grab the Panama Canal. The VPs from that might be important with this plan and the potential added flexibility of being able to send forces back and forth through the Panama Canal might be useful.

Then there is the Mobile Landing. This basically just adds easy to reach Industrial Cities, rail repair units and some extra VP as well. Essentially one of the problems with a Western Plan is not enough Industrial Cities and they are so spread out. So here I grab the south as far as Charlotte but shift to the defensive after that.

Of note there is still a push to the north during the first half of the game, up toward Dallas and Oklahoma and maybe even Omaha and Denver depending on resistance. The main target is St. Louis and maybe I don’t get there until the 2nd half of the game.

All these drives are supposed to basically be done by turn 50 when the 1st wave of Panzers are leaving. In the 2nd stage of the game when the New Panzers come back I launch my final but presumably decisive offensive. Up until this point what I have is basically a Western Offencive. Some south and Mexico has been thrown in but you can math that all you want. There is no win there. So in the 2nd stage of the game I send all the newly arriving Panzers toward Chicago and Detroit via a crossing around St. Louis.

My guess is Chicago, Detroit, LA, Mexico City and the Panama Canal plus the other towns and cities are enough for a win. So that is the 2nd half of this scenario. I expect a secondary attack, primarily by the Japanese on San Francisco and Salt Lake City and I expect to have already gotten some distance forward in the early part of the game but the main event in the 2nd half is one massive push to the end zone that is Chicago and Detroit.

Axis land near Mobile

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[golden delicious]

Then there is the Mobile Landing. This basically just adds easy to reach Industrial Cities, rail repair units and some extra VP as well. Essentially one of the problems with a Western Plan is not enough Industrial Cities and they are so spread out. So here I grab the south as far as Charlotte but shift to the defensive after that.

This also stops you getting locked west of the Mississippi. Your plan to move the dial by getting Chicago and Detroit late game depends on being able to do more than just push east from the plains.

Anyway, I've played around with a few Drang Nach Pacific plans but never executed them. Interested to see if it can be done.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 2
So the cornerstone of my early plan is the drive to the west.

Lets break that down in more detail here.

It is 54 rail hexes to El Paso. El Paso is important both because it is a bit past the halfway point to our objectives on the west coast but also because once the rail line is cut here there is only really one more line into Mexico. Our rail repair units show up on turn 3 and can be landed. Starting on turn 4 we assume they repair 4 hexs of rail a turn. We land 6 Rail Repair units but two will go to the vicinity of Mobile to supply that attack. The reason more then 4 are not used pushing west, beyond a need for at least some rail repair to supply other attacks, is that the rail repair beyond 4 hexs is actually not very efficient. So if you take the last unit and move it 4 hexs forward and try and repair a broken rail it works something like 90% of the time but if you move 5 hexs that percentage, from my experience, drops a lot. It’s more like 50% of the time. Hence outside of extreme emergencies I never go beyond 4 rail repair units fixing a line at a time.

EDIT: My percentages are off here and a little optimistic.

In any case we start the rail repair on turn 4 and assuming nothing ever gets in the way we reach El Paso 13 turns later on turn 17. By turn 17 we should also expect that Mexico City has fallen and the rail lines in central Mexico have been cut. Monterrey is not totally out of supply but it is at the extreme end of Allied supply capabilities. Hence the fall of El Paso is also the signal to take Monterrey and Chihuahua – probably by Italians from the north.

It is 19 more hexs to Tuscan so by turn 23 the Axis player should have completely cut Mexico off and this should signal the final conquest of Mexico. I’m not sure how long that will actually take but after this point the I should be able to insure there are no supplies reaching Mexico though I might find myself fighting to maintain this rail line and keep the Mexicans contained.

A final 16 hexs to Yuma which means in and about turn 27 I should be launching an attack in the vicinity of San Diego followed not to long after this with an assault aimed at Los Angeles. This is well within a potential Axis time line. If it all goes to plan I am ready to land Japanese before I am finished landing Axis. Now I think that is too optimistic but I can be off by a lot and this overall plan still works. I don’t think I would be ready to land the Japanese until turn 34 in any case and it is not the end of the world if they are a few turns later then that.

As for the actual turn. Well Chris is pretty aggressive in moving to cut off the beachheads but only the one to the East of Mobile can’t make some crazy trace. They presumably still lost stuff but are not to bad off.

Chris really likes interdiction, which works well early in the scenario. I have tended to think it works less well later but it worked pretty well in the first game of our mirror match so I am unsure. I prefer my air to give me direct support if they are not attaining air superiority.

Chris also does an interesting thing where he keeps his units headed for the front lines in tactical reserve to speed them up I assume.

Nonetheless all the supply points are taken this turn but some units East of Mobile are still cut off. Chris has gone with a generous policy of waiting for the train. Units beyond, it looks like, 5 turns or so, are standing by for rail transport.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 3
Chris is aggressive sending forces to block me in wherever possible. This feels somewhat mixed at Galveston and Mobile where I have to be careful, fight hard to advance and at Mobile end up cut off at turn start. Nonetheless I am clearly pushing forward off the beaches.

In Mexico I think the Allies are getting significantly more punished. The Mexicans, low on readiness and supply, just can’t stand up to the Axis. I think I have corralled the entire Monterrey force into a single, more or less shattered, stack and can hopefully kill them next turn. If that happens I guess I just go get Monterrey early because it should be basically undefended.

Mobile = 90%

Axis push off the beaches in Mexico

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[golden delicious]

Chris also does an interesting thing where he keeps his units headed for the front lines in tactical reserve to speed them up I assume.

Presumably you mean Local Reserve? This is the setting that means they move towards the nearest combat. It won't speed them up as any movement under Local Reserve will come out of their allowance for the next turn, but it does mean they may go the wrong way or advance blindly into a trap, as well as potentially moving to worse supplied hexes away from railroads and HQs.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 4
Well killing the Mexican stack works. I outlined a whole plan to attack Monterrey at some later point after El Paso fell above but I kind of just can’t pass this up. I manage 1 Infantry Division into Tampico along with an HQ this turn but I plan to send another 5 all tasked with occupy Monterrey. It practically erases the need for a northern Mexican Army of conquest. It will just be Chihuahua at some point. Leaves a lot of Italians without a job but maybe I start early on the push north toward Salt Lake City with them.

Otherwise, it looks like Chris is disengaging across much of the front. I managed to cut off some forces around Houston but slightly early turn ending maybe stops me taking Houston this turn. I think the real problem is I am breaking units down and pushing in every direction and thus having some trouble with the troop concentrations, but the front line is expanding rapidly. This can be something of a double-edged sword in the West and I should keep that in mind. Ultimately as the flank expands and expands, trying to cover it by spreading units along it just makes you vulnerable to having your units gobbled up. Better to have some kind of a reserve in the area and small scout forces moving around so that you can react in force to incursions.

I only took one hit to replacements for the Transport Option so it won’t be the fastest landing either, but my plan is about a coup de grace in the 2nd half of the game so I aim to keep the Axis army strong though with the distances I am planning on dealing with I opt with supply over replacements.

This turns landing was primarily Mechanized Infantry all of whom are slated to head west, but which will have the more immediate objective of taking San Antonio.

Axis = 7 Allies = 31 Spread = 24

The Galveston and Mobile fronts are joined this turn.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 5
What is standing out to me here is that the Allies are trying to form a loose ring around my landings and then, presumably, hoping to infill that as reinforcements arrive. I’d do this in the East because Axis mobility is so reduced and it might work here to a solid degree near Mobile.

Otherwise, though I feel like my response is to put my geographical plans basically on hold and see how many Allied units I can destroy. That is always goal #1. Destroy the enemy army.

That is what I am up to though I don’t have enough units for it and my own forces expanding out are what identified this. Hence so far it is working but on a smaller scale and I really did stretch myself so I will find it tough to get the kind of concentration I need to really capitalize but still whatever damage I can do is the plan for the moment.

Strategic Situation turn 5

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[golden delicious]

This can be something of a double-edged sword in the West and I should keep that in mind. Ultimately as the flank expands and expands, trying to cover it by spreading units along it just makes you vulnerable to having your units gobbled up.

This is especially a concern (albeit not yet) as you haven't landed in the Northeast. Normally, the Allied player is thrown deep into an attritional battle up here which sucks in a good portion of their starting forces. Absent that front, the Allies can choose to engage more lightly and build up for a punishing counterattack in another 10-15 turns.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 6
The different parts of the front are really showing off their different characteristics this turn. Everything east of the Mississippi is just caught up in a slog if I happen to be on the offensive. A lot of the front is actually on the defensive at the moment and reinforcements into the area don’t look to change that much for a little while.

You can say more or less the same in the area just west of the Mississippi where the rivers help the Allies to establish defensive lines but it is rare this is much of an attack route for the Axis. Axis almost always bypass the rivers because why fight ones way over them. I’ll certainly bypass them and force the defenders out by threatening the flank.

In Texas I am involved in swirling battles that are constantly cutting off and destroying Allied divisions though most Allied divisions manage to escape because the are never near enough German mechanized forces to catch them and keep them penned in. The Allied loose penning in that I was seeing earlier is clearly gone at this stage.

Mexico is the opposite of my earlier reading. By turns end there is nothing standing between the Germans and Mexico City while the way north to Monterrey does have at least some defenders.

Central America proceeds apace with Guatemala City falling this turn.

Houston = 81%

Happy times as the Panzertruppen sweep around lightly defended flank cutting Allied units off.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

This is especially a concern (albeit not yet) as you haven't landed in the Northeast. Normally, the Allied player is thrown deep into an attritional battle up here which sucks in a good portion of their starting forces. Absent that front, the Allies can choose to engage more lightly and build up for a punishing counterattack in another 10-15 turns.

I somewhat question the idea of a clearly separate landing in v2.29. If the idea of early game German knock out blows are substantially less of a thing, and I think that might be the case with the very deep starting Allied manpower reserves in v2.29, then the German player is going to have to deal with the ability of the Allies to mass some pretty impressive forces in the second half of the match. Especially during the period when the Allies really recover and basically all the Panzers leave.

My concern is how much these separate fronts that really can't support each other are open to defeat in detail.

The ability to transfer forces between fronts really is the Allied forte and after turn 50 the Allies will have the ability to go on the attack as well.

[golden delicious]

I somewhat question the idea of a clearly separate landing in v2.29. If the idea of early game German knock out blows are substantially less of a thing, and I think that might be the case with the very deep starting Allied manpower reserves in v2.29, then the German player is going to have to deal with the ability of the Allies to mass some pretty impressive forces in the second half of the match.

I'd argue the opposite. In a balanced match like the one we played recently, the Allied player in the late game is really struggling to get enough strong pieces together for full-blooded assaults. Moreover, the one option the Axis do have for strategic mobility is by sea, which means supporting a separated landing is no more of a problem than supporting a long, continuous front.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 7
Chris launches a series of counter attacks this turn that really highlight just how over extended I am. Now to be clear I believe that if the Axis are not over extended at this stage in the scenario you are doing it wrong, nonetheless this has got me feeling a fair bit of strain and slowed things up. I’m using broken down Panzer Divisions to plug gaps in the line while flanks hang in the air in other places.

One can really imagine the entire extended German line with German commanders screaming for reinforcements everywhere and especially demanding to know where the Infantry is because, if we get right down to it, that is my problem all over the line. Everywhere the Panzertruppen and sometimes even Engineers need to be replaced by infantry. Even the Infantry needs to be replaced by Infantry – in the sense that the line is primarily held by Brigades and I need to find full Divisions if I want to actually go over to the attack.

Still, this does not really concern me too much. It is in fact what I want to see from my German army. The Panzers desperately needing to have the infantry come up and replace them generally means things are working as they are supposed to.

Though this is less true east of the Mississippi where I don’t really have encirclement battles but am just plugging gaps. Even here, however, that means I grabbed more than I could chew and am now trying to find enough to hold the line. It is basically just another way of saying overextended.

Another issue this turn is I only get two rounds when the first, somehow, uses up 70% of my turn. Should not happen that way given the settings of the scenario and the fact that no round one attack was using more than 1 box but it sometimes does.

Axis forces push in all directions in Mexico

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 8
Chris kicks off a really fierce counter attack driving my Axis back in Alabama, Louisiana and Texas. In Alabama the 12th American Armoured Division drives deep into Axis lines which diverts all my reinforcements but by turns end the intruder is surrounded and 3rd Panzer destroys it. In Louisiana it is a matter of weathering the Allied counter blows. Meanwhile in Texas my encirclement's are mostly broken by counter attacks and while I will collect some stragglers I don’t catch that many Allies on my turn though Fort Worth does fall which is significant as that clears the rail line west toward El Paso.

My take is the Allied counter attack is benefiting from the fact that I sent 3 German Infantry Divisions to Central America and 12 or 13 Divisions into Mexico. My forces on the main lines are weaker and my transport rate not that high. It is no wonder that the Allies are counter attacking.

Thing is I am done with sending forces into Central America. Those 3 Divisions along with the Colombians and El Salvador should be enough to conquer the whole place.

Mexico is in some ways similar. I have Mexico City surrounded and under assault this turn and all defences I can see in front of Monterrey have been destroyed and my forces are racing up that way. I don’t need any more Germans in Mexico. What is there will be perfectly adequate going forward. Italians are low on my priority list but they are light so a few of them have been landing each turn on the dredges of sea transport left over after I land a German Panzer Division and all the mechanized or normal German Infantry Divisions the sea lift permits.

So the slow down on the main front should be temporary as everything is going that way now.
New Orleans falls this round. I had forgotten I had cut it off and have been in the process of bringing up a bunch of divisions to deal with it, delayed by fighting some Allies in the area when, this turn 1 Brigade I had sitting beside it just walked through the shell of the starving defenders.

Axis = 11 Allies = 57 Spread = 46

Allied defences start to solidify in the East.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 9
For the first time since turn 1 the Spread is against me. It is just a small amount where last turn it was 56 in my favour and this turn it is 54 in my favour. I don’t believe this is a trend, instead it is an indication that, for the second turn in a row I am mostly reacting on the front. Allied counter attacks remain potent. Allied reinforcements fairly robust and my line stretched and my fighting reactive. The spread is shifting because I am not cutting off and destroying units this turn and am instead much more trying to shore up my over extended line.

All that said Mexico City fell this turn so the Mexican campaign continues apace and reinforcements are almost exclusively going to the fighting in America at this stage so I should be able to recover the initiative. Though I will struggle with that. At this stage and for some turns to come the Allies are probably reinforcing faster than I am even if the actual quality favours me. I presume that at this stage Allied rail transport is 24,000, same as my sea transport but there are some Allied units arriving on their own wheels. Pretty soon Allied rail transport will jump to 32,000 and I’ll struggle even more for a handful of turns until the Allies run out of stuff to reinforce with.

So back on Turn 5 I noted that the Allies were trying to form a loose ring around my forces. I broke that up but I would say we are back there again, albeit it is now a much bigger ring but, once again, it feels like there is fighting roughly in a ring that goes from the Red River to Dallas and then swings around and down to San Antonio. The Allied line does trail off here but I expect to find a significant Allied counter attack here next turn that turns the fighting for San Antonio to a major back and forth.

New Orleans = 73%

The fighting is more chaotic west of the Mississippi

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 10
This turn is a bit extreme in that it starts off looking bad but ends up being a good turn.

Chris really pounds into me in Alabama. I am driven back so hard that I am a bit concerned about Mobile and I throw just about all the reinforcements this way in order to make a go of recovering the situation. That said I see a way to cut off one wing of these Allied attackers with an Italian airdrop (Chris and I have agreed to not play with the strict airdrop rules) and subsequently a number of Allied units are wiped out.

West of the Mississippi I lose a few units including the Cavalry Division but also manage to storm San Antonio. I had expected an Allied counter attack but instead Chris pulled the line away and to the north.

At the end of the day the spread actually shifts 11 in my favour and anything over 10 is considered excellent in my books.

Allied Industrial Boost = 109%
Mexico City = 87%

Axis view of the Strategic Situation on Turn 10

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