Never Thought I'd Start Another One - tc464 (A) vs. Mike (J)

[PaxMondo]

29 Nov 42
Let's not forget that once Chungking and Chengtu are liberated, the dead Chinese infantry stays dead!

Most generally take Chengtu first as it is easier, then once you take CK, nothing can come back ...

[PaxMondo]

Mike,

Going back to a topic you brought up some time back: oil, refine it locally or bring it back to HI to refine? Your concern was that your oil levels in the HI continue to drop, and you want them to be growing.

So, the game is set up where there is MORE refining capacity than oil centers within the sphere that the IJ will likely capture in a game. And by more, I mean like 20% more ... a significant number. Now what does that mean for the IJ? In real terms: not much. Why?

While there is some sentimental good feeling about bringing the oil back to IJ to refine, the truth is that bringing the fuel back saves 10% of you tanker capacity AND it generally means the supply is closer to where you need it, so you save again on AK capacity AND Fuel usage on both sides. Do you ever repair refineries? Not likely. Negative ROI.

So, don't worry about falling oil levels in the IJ. When they get too low, turn off a few refineries. The main point is to not leave any fuel/oil/supply behind for the allies as you retreat in '44.

[Mike Solli]

29 Nov 42
Let's not forget that once Chungking and Chengtu are liberated, the dead Chinese infantry stays dead!

Most generally take Chengtu first as it is easier, then once you take CK, nothing can come back ...

That's the plan!

[Mike Solli]

Mike,

Going back to a topic you brought up some time back: oil, refine it locally or bring it back to HI to refine? Your concern was that your oil levels in the HI continue to drop, and you want them to be growing.

So, the game is set up where there is MORE refining capacity than oil centers within the sphere that the IJ will likely capture in a game. And by more, I mean like 20% more ... a significant number. Now what does that mean for the IJ? In real terms: not much. Why?

While there is some sentimental good feeling about bringing the oil back to IJ to refine, the truth is that bringing the fuel back saves 10% of you tanker capacity AND it generally means the supply is closer to where you need it, so you save again on AK capacity AND Fuel usage on both sides. Do you ever repair refineries? Not likely. Negative ROI.

So, don't worry about falling oil levels in the IJ. When they get too low, turn off a few refineries. The main point is to not leave any fuel/oil/supply behind for the allies as you retreat in '44.

I understand and agree with everything you said above. It never dawned on me to shut off refineries in Japan. The next turn is 1 Dec 42. I am going to track the total amount of oil in Japan monthly from now on. I want to see how much it is declining per month so I can plan accordingly. The total amount of oil is dropping, but not my a lot. I'm not concerned with that, but the total amount in Japan is the concern.

You're right, keeping the refineries on everywhere is key. Most of the supply in the SRA is going to Burma (and occasionally, China) for operations in those AOs. I do ship supply from the Home Islands to China and Truk, but that's about it.

[Mike Solli]

Oil Analysis

I ran a bunch of numbers. I'll try and make it make sense. Here's what's needed per month in Japan. I did not include Sakhalin as part of Japan because shipping is required to get it to Hokkaido. I did include Hokkaido even though shipping is required because it's just a 2 hex hop. If that is cut off, I have much more important issues to worry about. Here goes:

Note everything is per month.

Note that "refineries" means the amount of oil needed to keep the refineries at that location functioning for the entire month.

Oil in Japan: 34,200 (114*10*30)
Refineries in Japan: 315,600 (1052*10*30)
Oil deficit in Japan: 34,200 - 315,600 = -281,400

So, I need to make up a deficit of 281,400 oil to keep Japan's refineries functioning.

Here is what oil gets shipped directly to Japan (either from Shikuka or through Babeldaob):
Shikuka: 9000
Boela: 6000
Babo: 4800
Java: 7500

Total: 27,300

Remaining deficit: 254,100 (-281,400 + 27,300)

Oil shipped to Georgetown, Port Dickson, Saigon, Cam Ranh Bay or Hong Kong:

Medan: 13,200
Bengkalis: 12,000
Sumatra: 144,600
Miri: 53,400
Brunei: 6,000
Formosa: 2,400

Total: 231,600 - Keep that number in your back pocket for a bit. We'll need it soon.

China/Manchuoko/Korea/Thailand:

Oil:
Urumchi: 15,000
Korea: 1,500
Manchukuo: 16,500

Total: 33,000

Refineries:
Bangkok: 6000
Urumchi: 6000
Pt. Arthur: 36,000

Total: 48,000

I still have yet to liberate Sian and Lanchow (though the latter is close). You can see that there is more refinery capacity than oil production here. (Story of my life.) But, there is a significant amount of oil flowing into (and hopefully through) China from the SRA.

Oil flowing into China: 231,600
Oil produced in CMKT: 33,000
Total: 264,600

Refinery capacity in CMKT: 48,000

Excess oil milling around in CMK: 216,600

So, in theory, if the land oil line ever moves at full capacity, I should have 216,600 oil a month flowing from Fusan into Japan. That ain't happening yet but the trickle is growing. Let's keep talking theory.

If you look way up at the top of this babble, you'll see that Japan needs 274,100 oil a month to keep its refineries producing. Here's the shortage:

China land line: 216,600
Needed in Japan: 254,100
Shortage: 37,500 (-254,100 + 216,600)

Here's what that equates to in refinery capacity:

37,500/10/30 = 125 refinery capacity.

So, Pt. Arthur tends to horde fuel and oil (and resources). Right now, they have 1,362,774 oil on hand. I'm considering that a reserve. Let's say we take about 1,200,000 of it and ship it to Japan. That's about 32 months of keeping all the refineries in operation. I suspect that the oil flowing through China would end up going to Pt. Arthur and stopping there. That's still better than shipping it from the SRA. That's very interesting...

Last set of numbers, I promise! (At least, for now. )

On 31 October 1942, here was the oil situation:

Total on map: 2,525,314
On ships: 58,517
Grand total: 2,583,831
In Japan: 411,420 (15.923%)

30 November 1942:

Total on map: 2,490,866
On ships: 69,317
Grand total: 2,560,183
In Japan: 217,925 (8.512%)

That change in Japan in just one month is staggering. I'm going to pull the turns from the previous few months to try and see if there is a trend.

Anyway, babble mode off.

[Mike Solli]

Hmm, if I have a single 11.6k TK hauling oil from Pt. Arthur to Nagasaki, that would probably cover the 37.5k deficit. But, there's still the issue of getting the China land bridge fully functional...

More thought is needed.

[Mike Solli]

30 Nov 42 - Quiet turn

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

I finally got enough PPs to buy out 9 Division from Kwangtung. They are headed to Adak along with the poor experience (48) 56 Division.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Twenty-five 4E bombers hit Tulagi today. They damaged an already battered airbase. Maybe he is doing this to prevent me from building more forts? I have 3 forts there and have moved in a NG battalion to reinforce the garrison.

Eleven 2E bombers and 40 P-40Ds hit bases in SE PNG.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

I bombed Lanchow and Chungking. I made a mistake at Chungking. I was moving troops in from all 6 hexes surrounding the base. The 110 Division moved in from the east, across the river and shock attacked. They were trashed but will recover. Now they're moving out to rebuild. I thought (apparently incorrectly) that if there are troops at a base, then troops moving over a river into the base won't trigger a shock attack. Maybe if it's a hex side that someone already moved through? At any rate, I've moved troops in from 5 of the 6 surrounding hexes. The only hex I haven't moved into Chungking from was the hex to the SE, which crosses a river. I'll just post a brigade there to "watch" them.

From the shock attack, I learned that they have level 6 forts (which I believe they start with) and their terrain, forts and leaders are (+) and preparation, experience and supply are all (-).

Other Stuff

The 7th George R&D factory finished repairing, so now I'm getting 14% a day. It's finally starting to do something.

Reinforcements
552 Ku K-1, 13 Air Flotilla, 27 Vals, training
954 Ku T-2, 24 Air Flotilla, 6 Jakes, pilots swapped out for trained naval search pilot and will be stationed south of Japan. There seems to be a steady stream of Allied subs heading west, just south of Japan.
Kushimoto Ku T-1, 13 Air Flotilla, 6 float planes, training
Special Attack Unit, 4 Air Army, arrived at Rabaul, 12 Nicks, will top off training for the 2 operational sentai.
Special Attack Unit Det., 4 Air Army, arrived at Rabaul, 6 Dinah fighters (horrible fighters), pulled back to Truk and will train defense on qualified pilots.
BB Musashi, finally! She freed up 223 naval production but it will turn out that I had too many ships accelerated. I'm finally in the plus territory, but just barely. That's ok, I can live with that. If you're interested, I have 6 CVs and 3 DDs (all I can accelerate right now) accelerated.

[Mike Solli]

1 Dec 42 - REALLY quiet day today.

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

Nothing to report.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

Today, 26x 4E bombers hit Tulagi's airfield.

Eleven 2E bombers and 81 P-39Ds hit SE PNG.

SRA

Some Nells, flying out of Saumlaki, caught a small supply convoy of 2 xAKLs headed for Darwin and sank both. Nice! That actually makes a difference down there.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

My bombers hit Chungking and Lanchow again today. I have sufficient supply at Lanchow and have scheduled a shock attack tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

Other Stuff

Nothing to report.

[Mike Solli]

2 Dec 42

Sub War

Nothing to report.

5 Fleet

Adak was bombarded by 3 BB and 2 CL today. They killed 13 squads, but probably more importantly, they got 3 supply hits. When the 9 and 56 Divisions arrive, I'll attack with them and two of the 3 divisions that are currently there. One is pretty battered and will watch.

4 Fleet

Nothing to report.

SE Fleet

I have only 2 sub chasers providing ASW around Truk, along with 31 Anns on ASW and 6 Jakes on Naval Search. Ted has flooded the area with subs. I suspect I'm spotting most of them but I have to manage TFs coming into and out of Truk to avoid them. KB2 is there now. I do feel better that they can head south if needed.

Thirty-six 4E bombers hit Tulagi's airfield today.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Nothing to report.

China

After bombing Chungking and Lanchow, the shock attack went in at Lanchow. Unfortunately, I got only 1:1 odds (1.8:1 actually) and the fort level is 0. Terrain for them is (+) but preparation and supply are both (-). I'll shock attack again once the supply catches up, hopefully soon. Once this operation is complete, I'll have an additional 4 divisions available for use at Chungking.

Other Stuff

Nothing to report.

[GrosserKreuzer]

30 Nov 42 - Quiet turn

[...]

China

I bombed Lanchow and Chungking. I made a mistake at Chungking. I was moving troops in from all 6 hexes surrounding the base. The 110 Division moved in from the east, across the river and shock attacked. They were trashed but will recover. Now they're moving out to rebuild. I thought (apparently incorrectly) that if there are troops at a base, then troops moving over a river into the base won't trigger a shock attack. Maybe if it's a hex side that someone already moved through? At any rate, I've moved troops in from 5 of the 6 surrounding hexes. The only hex I haven't moved into Chungking from was the hex to the SE, which crosses a river. I'll just post a brigade there to "watch" them.

[...]

It seems like you always do a shock attack if you are (a) crossing a river and (b) dont own the hexside or have less than 1/3 of the assault value of the enemy already in the hex.

At least that is the way I understand this old post from Alfred.
https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopi ... 6#p2749496

[PaxMondo]

...or have less than 1/3 of the assault value of the enemy already in the hex.

At least that is the way I understand this old post from Alfred.
https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopi ... 6#p2749496

Only applies to river crossings ... if river is not involved, then there is no trigger that I am aware of.

[GrosserKreuzer]

...or have less than 1/3 of the assault value of the enemy already in the hex.

At least that is the way I understand this old post from Alfred.
https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopi ... 6#p2749496

Only applies to river crossings ... if river is not involved, then there is no trigger that I am aware of.

Yes, that is what I meant with a and b.

You need to cross a river (a)
and
(you need to cross a hexside you do not own or have less than 1/3 of the assault value of the enemy already in the hex) (b)

Other triggers would be an attack on an atoll. Iirc dropping Paratroopers also forces a shock attack.

[Mike Solli]

Hmm. So, crossing a hex side you don't own will automatically trigger a shock attack regardless of how much AV you have in the hex. That makes sense. Guess I won't be advancing into Chungking from the SE at all. Yep, an infantry regiment/brigade will get that guard duty.

Thanks a lot for clarifying that for me and anyone else interested.

[Tomasek]

Yep, an infantry regiment/brigade will get that guard duty.

Note that it does not matter how large the unit is when it crosses; it will always open the path even when obliterated (provided your units are in the target hex). You can sacrifice a small unit - I usually split one of many 24 AV units and use their C section, which is usually the smallest. Once they cross, they vanish against strong defense, but it will liberate your guard unit, typically large and well-trained. Then you merge the A and B sections, and they will form a full unit again, replenished in a few days. Alternatively, you can airlift a small fraction on any unrestricted unit to a nearby base and then cross with them.

[Tomasek]

Yep, an infantry regiment/brigade will get that guard duty.

Note that it does not matter how large the unit is when it crosses; it will always open the path even when obliterated (provided your units are in the target hex). You can sacrifice a small unit - I usually split one of many 24 AV units and use their C section, which is always the smallest. Once they cross, they vanish against strong defense, but it will liberate your guard unit, typically large and well-trained. Then you merge the A and B sections, and they will form a full unit again, replenished in a few days. Alternatively, you can airlift a small fraction of any unrestricted unit to a nearby base and then cross with them.

[BBfanboy]

Hmm. So, crossing a hex side you don't own will automatically trigger a shock attack regardless of how much AV you have in the hex. That makes sense. Guess I won't be advancing into Chungking from the SE at all. Yep, an infantry regiment/brigade will get that guard duty.

Thanks a lot for clarifying that for me and anyone else interested.

Not quite right. Only if there is an atoll or river crossing involved do you get an automatic shock attack. And if there is a bridge over the river, I don't think you get the shock attack either.
Just moving into a land hex from a land hex does not trigger an attack. The player or AI must wait until next turn to attack newly arrived troops.