[Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

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totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

[Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by totobimbo »

Image
Most CMO scenarios ask you to solve a targeting problem. Find the enemy, range him, saturate his defences before he saturates yours. The skill being tested is
allocation: sensors, weapons, timing. You win by shooting better.

This one asks a different question. The best score in Baltic Sentinel goes to the player who never fires a shot.

That is not a gimmick or a pacifist statement. It is what the mission actually is a merchant hull is dragging her anchor across three power interconnectors.
You have the legal authority to stop her, and the Baltic Fleet is standing over the incident specifically to make using that authority expensive. Board her and
you succeed — and you hand Moscow a boarding on the high seas to point at. The scoring is built on that hinge: the single largest award goes to stopping the
drag before the first cable parts, and a separate bonus goes to finishing the six hours without an allied round leaving a tube.
---

Hoburg Bank, south-east of Gotland. 14 October 2026, 0430Z.

At 0341Z the bulk carrier M/V SOLVEIG ARROW Comoros flag, 45,000 dwt, hull laid down in 1999, last port Ust-Luga switched off her AIS twelve miles north of the NordBalt corridor. She has been making 3.2 knots on a heading of 068 ever since, with no engine fault and no distress call. At that draught, on that bottom, 3.2 knots is what a ship makes when something is in the mud behind her.

Twenty-two miles north-west, the Norwegian cable ship NCS ENDEAVOUR is working with her ROV in the water. She is unarmed and entirely dependent on you.

You command CTF-401: two Visby corvettes, a Sachsen, a Braunschweig, an OPV, a Gotland-class boat nobody has declared, and a handful of aircraft. You hold the legal instrument to board. Rules of engagement SIERRA: no first use of force.

The Baltic Fleet is closer to the incident than you are, and it contests any attempt to use that instrument. Stopping the ship is the mission. It is also the act that hands Moscow its pretext. The scenario does not resolve that tension for you that is the whole point of it.


WHAT IT IS
  • 6 hours of scenario time, 67 units, three sides (NATO / Baltic Fleet / civilian traffic).
  • DB3000 v515, CMO build 1825.15.
  • CMO complexity 2/5 no carrier ops, no strike packages to build, no deep logistics. Difficulty 4/5 — the hard part is deciding, not clicking.
  • Two special actions: boarding party from HSwMS CARLSKRONA, and a jamming option against the Orlan launched off the intelligence ship.
  • Scoring rewards restraint (max optimal scoring 2050). The largest single award goes to stopping the drag before any cable parts. There is a bonus for finishing without firing an allied round, and it survives being shot at only a round you fire cancels it.

WHAT'S IN THE PACKAGE

An intelligence dossier written as a commander's annex rather than a readme: situation, assessed enemy disposition with explicit confidence levels, friendly forces, ROE, execution, and how you will be scored. Twenty pages, with charts drawn from real GSHHS coastlines and the actual cable routes across the bank.

Also a test plan, design notes, and a self-test script that checks the scenario built correctly before you save it.

A WARNING THAT IS NOT A BUG

If the posture flips and you are still inside the S-400 engagement envelope from Gvardeysk, the 40N6 rounds reach your AEW orbit, your MPA and your CAP station. In one playthrough they killed the Argus, the Poseidon and both airborne Gripens inside twenty minutes, and a Kalibr salvo then accounted for four of the five surface units. That is the correct answer to going hostile inside someone's engagement zone. It is deliberate, and the scoring is built around it.

GROUNDING

The scenario leans on things that actually happened: Operation Baltic Sentry, the Estlink-2 and C-Lion1 cable incidents, and the pattern of ageing hulls under flags of convenience walking an anchor across the seabed. The fusion cell that produces the enemy picture is fictional; the sensors feeding it are not.

Everything in the scenario is fiction. Any resemblance to real operations serves plausibility, not intelligence.


DOWNLOADS

:arrow: CTF-401-Baltic-Sentinel, 2026.scen
:arrow: Mission pack (rev 2026-09-27)

Feedback welcome, particularly on the balance of the armed branch and on whether the boarding window feels too tight. If the Baltic Fleet AI does something I did not anticipate, I would like to hear about it as it's my first contribution ever.

— totobimbo
Last edited by totobimbo on Sun Sep 27, 2026 2:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Lakeend
Posts: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2024 9:35 am

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by Lakeend »

Nice, I have very similar scenario under construction aswell :mrgreen:
totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by totobimbo »

Thanks Lakeend it's a first drop, i would work more on a more realistic OPORD documentation
totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by totobimbo »

Lakeend wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2026 5:24 pm Nice, I have very similar scenario under construction aswell :mrgreen:
Thanks Lakeend it's a first drop, i would work more on a more realistic OPORD documentation
schweggy
Posts: 217
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2015 8:24 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by schweggy »

Interesting scenario. The back story and operational orders are well done.

Housekeeping issues:
- Clear the message log and reset the current time. Otherwise the mission time is about 5 hrs 40 min. Not 6 hrs.
- The M/V SOLVEIG ARROW never drops below 12kts. I think it might reach the end of its path in less than 6 hours.

In the write-up, it's mentioned that when "walking the anchor" it would drop to 3kts or so. Its path also abruptly ends, but given the 6 hour window to complete the mission it might not matter
(assuming the ship slows to 3kts.) If it's setup by design, then please ignore.
- schweggy -

Montani Semper Liberi - Mountaineers are always free
totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by totobimbo »

Thanks ! Issues fixed and scen updated.

- It was an issue of priority between the CMO AI engine and my builder rules (concerning the speed). Thanks to the post https://forums.matrixgames.com/viewtopic.php?p=4433668
- A scoring fix also (too gentle)
- Bad mistake about the anchor timer, well done.
totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026 — six hours, five warships, and a rule that says you may not shoot first

Post by totobimbo »

What changed from 2026-09-27 version
The scenario version now is developped to be part of a wider campaign.
  • Two bulk carriers, one saboteur. Both are dragging their anchors over the cable corridors, 25 nm apart. Which one means it is drawn at random, and the one that looks guilty is not always the one that is. Anchor reports, the AIS picture and graded intelligence are your only guides.
  • Boarding under real law. Outside territorial waters you need the flag state's consent, or proof that the ship has no nationality. A refusal can be challenged once with a warship's report of the anchor under load, and a cable fault under the keel changes the registry's mind. Board without a legal basis and Moscow calls it piracy.
  • The repair. A cable ship works all day inside a 3 nm perimeter. Trawlers, drones, a "research" vessel and satellite-navigation jamming take turns to stop her, drawn at random each game. Nothing that stops her can be shot.
  • The night. A Kilo leaves at dusk for one of three cable nodes. Hold her in contact and she turns back. Attack her and you have started the war this operation exists to prevent.
  • Stockholm. A government with three gauges (legitimacy, public opinion, allied cohesion) and a stream of events that need an answer within 30 minutes. Let a gauge fall below 15 and the government falls, which ends the operation.
  • 14 special actions: boarding, radio orders, flag-state requests, directed jamming, SIGINT, NATO support, repair and government decisions. A guide to all of them is in section 7 of the Briefing Pack.
  • Scoring on three axes (military, political, economic), graded A to E, with an end-of-game debrief that reveals the draw.
  • Weapons tight in every domain, and your anti-submarine aircraft hold fire on submarines unless you order an attack yourself.

Mission pack
New Briefing Pack (17 pages) and Operation Order 26-114 (27 sheets, with two overlays); the scenario description in CMO carries the essentials.

Requirements
  • Command: Modern Operations, build 1825.15 or later
  • Database DB3000 v515
  • Complexity 3/5 · Difficulty 4/5 · about 4 to 6 hours of play with time compression

Notes
[*]Found something odd? Leave a comment with the time it happened and the message log (.txt). Every report is read.
Knightpawn
Posts: 751
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:28 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by Knightpawn »

Just finished this. Very well done!
totobimbo
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Sep 20, 2026 3:45 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by totobimbo »

Knightpawn wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2026 10:28 pm Just finished this. Very well done!
Thank you ! i appreciate, could you send me your score ? if not this is the score ranking :
>1100 : Decisive success
>700 : Success
> 300 : Narrow success
>-150 Partial failure
Knightpawn
Posts: 751
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:28 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by Knightpawn »

Let me go and check my autosaves because I like to play CMO like chess (no takebacks) :-)
Knightpawn
Posts: 751
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:28 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by Knightpawn »

totobimbo wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2026 6:01 pm
Knightpawn wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2026 10:28 pm Just finished this. Very well done!
Thank you ! i appreciate, could you send me your score ? if not this is the score ranking :
>1100 : Decisive success
>700 : Success
> 300 : Narrow success
>-150 Partial failure
*** SPOILERS ALERT ***

10-14-2026 06:10: Score changed from 0 to -200. Reason: LV-Gotland link cable parted

10-14-2026 06:10: Score changed from -200 to -300. Reason: LV-Gotland link outage

10-14-2026 06:41: Score changed from -300 to -500. Reason: NordBalt cable parted

10-14-2026 06:41: Score changed from -500 to -600. Reason: NordBalt outage

10-14-2026 07:40: Score changed from -600 to -500. Reason: M/V MARLIN GRACE stopped, too late

10-14-2026 08:30: Score changed from -500 to -750. Reason: Wrong ship boarded (M/V SOLVEIG ARROW)

10-14-2026 13:12: Score changed from -750 to -650. Reason: Kilo held for 30 minutes: acoustic signature recorded

10-14-2026 16:27: Score changed from -650 to -350. Reason: Kilo turned away before laying its device

10-14-2026 20:56: Score changed from -350 to 50. Reason: BCS East-West repaired

10-14-2026 20:56: Score changed from 50 to 100. Reason: Repair finished with time to spare

10-15-2026 00:26: Score changed from 100 to 300. Reason: No allied round fired
Last edited by Knightpawn on Mon Sep 28, 2026 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Knightpawn
Posts: 751
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2024 12:28 pm

Re: [Scenario] CTF-401 Baltic Sentinel, 2026

Post by Knightpawn »

I would not penalise myself though with -250 for boarding the wrong ship: Boarding was perfectly legit (ship under no flag) and I was curious to do it :-)
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