Sailing in harms way: InHarmsWay (J) vs Andav (A) Scen2

[PaxMondo]

So, assuming still late Apr43 ...

What are your plans for Unmak? The next base that he can build up for 4E's is Kodiak (marginal) then Anchorage.

Either you take Unmak now, or you establish your defense on Adak now. I don't recommend half measures.

Establishing defense on Adak means port minimum 5 (consider 7 if you mean to bombard Unmak AF), and AF 7. Minimum 200 fighters (5 x 42 ; 6 x 36 - something like that) and you will need at least 3 more groups that rotate in from Hokkaido. HQa (I would suggest a command level 5 one, it helps when you over-stack), 2 x ID + 1xARM bde. Lotsa AA, at least 2 good units with the 10cm stuff and then a bunch of others. at least 3 radar devices. And finally a LARGE reaction force. +200 Netties and another +100 TB's. Netties can arrive in 1 turn from Hokkaido, TB's will take 2 - 3 turns.

What you want is something that he MUST neutralize before he would go to Hokkaido ... something he can't skip by. And if he tries, something that will give you 4 turns minimum warning that he is coming ... so don't forget a good number of your Mavis/Emily's on Adak ... and that can really bite into his rear if he tries to bypass it.

This is 43 ... not sure what your goals are for now, but they might include:
- hold DEI, pull all fuel/oil/resource
- establish defense perimeter: PI/Formosa/HK/ CHI/KOR/Aleut
- +1000 fighter pilot 70/70 pool, +500 TB 70/70 pool
- establish +4M HI/1M ARM/50K VEH/+1000 key engine/+1000 key airframe pools/+2000 kami AC pool
- ....???

Or go for Unmak now. It will be tough. You're gonna need like 4 x ID + 2 x ARM BDE fully prepped and the entire KB. You might need 6 x ID + 3 ARM BDE ... depends on what your recon tells you. But you can do it, then his 4E's are driven back to Anchorage. Anchorage to Unmak is 19 hex ... that means poor escort for his 4E's and he's at range limit until his B29's arrive. Kodiak can only get to AF6 ... can support some 4E ops but not massive launches, which means you will be able to chew them up ... you would like him to use Kodiak ...

You're doing well, don't worry about your recent loss ... NBD (No BIg Deal). Use the intel it gives you and decide your next steps in the Burma Theatre ... he can't win the game in Burma, but you can lose it.

Just my thoughts, use as you see fit.

[InHarmsWay]

PaxMondo, All very good questions and ones I have been wrestling with while the KB was refitting. Now that most of the key CVs are ready to sail again or getting close, here are my thoughts. First, need to bring all our gentle readers up to speed in the North Pacific, as that I believe is the key theatre right now. As of May 1, 1943 the current profile for the key bases are as follows:

May 01 1943 Adak Base status North Pacific.jpg (460.58 KiB) Viewed 342 times

I think Adak is the KEY base here, given the ability to replenish pretty much all ships, large airfield and something he cannot ignore if he want to ever push the northern route. I currently have three more LCUs in transit to Adak.
-Det. 3rd Special Base Force for AA and DP guns
-1st Air Defense AA Btn for AA
-1st Art. Mortoar Rgt for Arty

I am debating bringing another 1-2 Arty units as well as I am weak in that area with no dedicated Arty units on the island

Now looking at the other bases in the area, Adm Wa conveniently built them all up to just about maximum. He is now doing the same to all the remaining allied bases in the Aleutians... and I know he will not skimp fortifications this time around...

Amchitka has an Air HQ, 54th Division, and three Armored rgmts. I will likely move one of the ARM units to Adak in a few weeks once the Adak reinforcements offload. Total AV will be about 500 ish, and 96 avaition support. Forts are at 1 now (as it took a while to repair the damage...)

Aggatu has 322 AV, 72 aviation support, and forts are currently at 4

Attu has 360 AV, 36 Aviation support, and forts at 5

Given all this, I am leaning towards this being my front line / MLR here. Now to talk strategy why I am leaning towards this.

[InHarmsWay]

Part 2 of my 3 part discussion! Thank you gentle readers for coming this far with me on my journey to finally beat my Nemesis - Adm Wa! Things that are rattling around in my pea brain, in no particular order:

1. Adm Wa has invested quite a bit to build up the Aleutians. And has lost quite a few units during my initial invasions. He has lost parts of several other LCUs while landing at Umnak from sunk ships recently, so he seems intent in building up Umnak and Dutch Harbor. I am sinking on average ~2 ships a turn here as he runs the Netty guantlet out of Adak and Amchitka.

2. Most of Adm Wa's subs have now relocated into this area. On average I see about a dozen around Adak, and probably bag one every 3-4 days. At least 1-2 are getting damaged but not many confirmed kills. Sally and Helens are flying ASW and getting a dubious 5-6 "hits" a day. Zero subs have been spotted anywhere near the Home Islands for the past month.

3. Adm Wa is aggressive by nature, and every indication has been for him to repeat his northern route attack from the last game, which worked. He is not the Brave Sir Robin type and will push when it benefits him. The only reason we likely did not have a CV battle initially around Adak was one of my subs put two fish in the Wasp, which also alerted me to his approach.

4. Last known sighting of the Death star has been SE of Dutch Harbor about 3 weeks ago, shortly after Amchitka fell. Several (3-5) CVEs have shown up in the SW Pacific off Milne Bay about 2 weeks ago. No CV activity in the Indian Ocean since he retook Ceylon which was before my Aleutian invasion.

5. Adm Wa recently has done alot of recon over SW Pac islands and making some noise attacking PM, Milne Bay, and invaded Deboyne island. Nothing further from that, which I now feel was just a feint to lure the KB South. Gut feel only here...

6. I have switched quite a few units to "prep" for Cold Harbor / Umnak / Kodiak in the hopes these orders are somehow discovered by allied intel... . This may be focusing his attention on Alaska?

7. I need to get to the liquor store this week, I am low on single malt wisky, especially Lagavulin.

8. Adm Was seems to be landing quite a few units along the Burma coast at Akyab and Ramree Island. I think he is trying to slowly flank my forces along the Magwe / Mandalay / Lashio front line. He has quite a few LCUs NE of Lashio but has not pushed further south, while I did move several Divisions to try and flank him at Katha. Will post a separate map on this area as it could get spicy in a few months if his CVs are really in the India theater and now prepping to retake the Aleutians.

9. A recent 4E raid was flown over Adak (which my CAP and AAA earned extra Sake from), showing he is trying to wrestle air superiority from the Japanese. I expect he will have more show up once he reinforces with additional air wings.

[InHarmsWay]

Ok, for those still here, to finally answer PaxMondo question. My plan is to hold the Aleutian chain as long as I can. The northern route really is a dagger right at the Home Islands. Adm Wa built up the bases, so alot of supplies will NOT need to be burned for that. Outside of the Zero vs Hellcat matchup, I am sitting on at least an even and sometimes favorable air to air matchup, especially as Adak is worth ~2 CVs and Amchitka is another. He really cannot ignore it, if for no other reason than having a lvl 8 port and lvl 7 airfield that far into his flank.

My current strategy for the North Pacific is to continue to build it up, threaten / bombard / bomb Umnak and further up the island chain. I am not going to try and take any further islands by invasion, as I would rather he try the costly counterattack here, where I have the benefit of good, supporting bases and we are at parity from an Navy standpoint. I expect Adm Wa has a couple Marine Divisions planning for the invasion, which will start once he is able to close the airfield. If I can get some Franks over there as well, he will need to bring his navy to try and close the base, as I don't think 4Es will be able to do it, especially if I can catch a few via bombardments.

One thing I am toying with is bringing in one of the very high exp divisions out of China. They are earmarked for the Marianias but replacing the 24th Div (exp 61) currently at Adak with one that is mid/upper 80's experience may very well be worth it. I am very cognizant of not overstacking the base, as that really hurt me in the amchitka invasion (the remaining division in Amchitka is still recovering...), the other one was pulled and is arriving in Toyko in a few days).

A couple of side notes, production B6N2 Jills just began (May 1, 1943) and production of Franks will arrive in 4 days, and D4Y2 Judys' in 4 days. Also I have plans for that uppidy invasion of Deboyne.... . Also I will get 3 new CVs (Taiho, Amagi, and Unryu) in about ~90 days!

Phew, alot of typing, the Burma update will need

[RangerJoe]

Among other things, it appears that you have an alcohol problem. That is, not enough alcohol!

I would grab all of those dot bases up there. It would keep someone from flying in some supplies and air support for PBYs and/or float planes. That said, you can do that. You could also fly in a little fuel to refuel some MTBs which would travel there and then disband. Then the MTBs can lead the way to Umnak arriving there before your fast bombardment task forces. Jakes at 100 feet flying Low Naval strikes could be a nasty surprise for any underescorted convoys as well, possibly getting in before any CAP notices them. I don't know how well they would work at night . . .

[PaxMondo]

I think Adak is the KEY base here, given the ability to replenish pretty much all ships, large airfield and something he cannot ignore if he want to ever push the northern route. I currently have three more LCUs in transit to Adak.
-Det. 3rd Special Base Force for AA and DP guns
-1st Air Defense AA Btn for AA
-1st Art. Mortoar Rgt for Arty

I am debating bringing another 1-2 Arty units as well as I am weak in that area with no dedicated Arty units on the island

For island defense I like ID's, ARM BDE's, CD's, AA, and radar. Arty is also good, but choosing an Arty or AA I would always choose an AA. Don't forget at least 1 AT unit ... he will bring ARM units for sure. 1`or 2 good AT units will ruin his day fast.

[InHarmsWay]

Now for the update in Burma as promised gentle readers. After my attempt at bagging a couple divisions down near Lashio, we have reached a stalemate. Adm Wa continues to bombard my troops NE and E of Lashio however the damage is minimal if anything. It has become a sideshow. Further north, my two divisions and associated units are retreating towards Shwebo so as not to get caught out in the event Adm follows through with an end around over by Prome, or even with a landing down at Moulmein. That is my fear, and I have the 1st Tank Div on its way there from Bangkok. With Franks now in production, I expect to be able to win the air war here, at least short term. I have ~390 fighters in this area, and within the month, they should be mostly Franks and Georges. Port Blair has a Air HQ, and the Netties have caught several transports in the past few weeks.

May 05 1943 Burma land status.jpg (716.76 KiB) Viewed 251 times

I will move another high exp division from China to base in Singapore as well just in case. With him not knowing where the KB is, he may be hesitant to push a landing in Burma or Malasia. However I can't count on that so am repositioning troops into this theater. If he does push through Prome by land, I may be able to pull a landing behind him, to cut off his troop supply... something I need to prepare for if the opportunity shows ala Inchon...

So without the KB in the area, my current plans are to prep for a potential Inchon style counter landing (need to identify units for this), and prepare for an Anzio style defense of any landings elsewhere...

Finally, the war will be paused for 2 weeks as I will not have WitP - AE access while on vacation (Yes, I know, this is an oversight on my part! )

[PaxMondo]

... It has become a sideshow.

From the Map date your May 5 1943 ... so Burma being a sideshow is ok. Just hold Magwe and Rangoon as long as the oil is pumping.

I will move another high exp division from China to base in Singapore as well just in case. With him not knowing where the KB is, he may be hesitant to push a landing in Burma or Malasia. However I can't count on that so am repositioning troops into this theater. If he does push through Prome by land, I may be able to pull a landing behind him, to cut off his troop supply... something I need to prepare for if the opportunity shows ala Inchon...

So without the KB in the area, my current plans are to prep for a potential Inchon style counter landing (need to identify units for this), and prepare for an Anzio style defense of any landings elsewhere...

Exactly the right ideas here. IJ can LOSE the war in Indochina by having too many high value units get isolated in the Malay penninsula. It is a real chore to work through this, but it is one of the most important tasks in '43: choosing which unit will bail and which will be lost in Indochina, and having an exit route/strategy for each of these units that bail. Its a big area, but remember, the allies cannot win by walking from Prome ... but the IJ can lose if they do an amphib landing somewhere like HK and trap too many units. This is where having taken CHI out of the game becomes so important. It allows you to create the exit routes. Also, remember that once you lose Magwe/Rangoon there is very little value until Chungking/Hong Kong.