ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
There are an endless variety of "ahistorical start" options that COULD be offered.
My dissappointment is that most of the ones 2bu3 have chosen are at least mildly
Pro-Japanese..., and none of them reflect the most obvious historical possibilities.
Which are that Enterprise isn't delayed by refueling difficulties and returns to PH
on time (to be in port on the 7th), or, that the Kido Butai IS spotted sneaking across
the North Pacific and having lost "suprise" is forced to terminate it's "manuevers"
and return to Japan. Either are more likely than the operations proposed.
Mike I would agree in includeing both those options, but disagree that none of the proposed options were likely. Option 1 closely resembles the opening phase of Kmmels's
WP-46, This was the plan of operation for the PacFleet at the onset of War. If PH had not been attacked it most likely would have been his initial deployment. It certainly is in the realm of likelyhood that, Kimmel seeing the war most immanent might very well have initiated this 1st phase prior to attack.
The 2nd option would have been the most likely deployment of the Fleet, if KB had been spotted in its approach . The PacFleet concentrated somewhere in the vacinity of the HI ready to take on this rather small detachment of the IJN head on. Really it was every USN Op-planners wet dream to be able to concentrate the whole fleet against a portion of the combined fleet away from its home waters. Something they thought Japan would never be so foolish to do. I do think that a definite no surprise should be included into this option because I just do see a reason to deploy in this manner unless the IJN TF had been sighted.
Option 3, could have happened if the the decision to reinforce Wake and Midway had simply taken place earlier (say November) or if the reinforcement had been delayed altogether for one reason or another.





