Allied Player vs Japan AI

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Mike Scholl
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mike Scholl »

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag
JOEL. So we are basically to believe that this particular daylight surface action was that
one-in-a-hundred, extreme end-of-the-possibility-table, won't happen again in an entire
game result? If that is the case, your explanation makes sense. Otherwise, Tondern's
point looks pretty valid..., there isn't even a "Jarvis Bay" to go down valiantly buying
time for the rest to scatter. And there are more pursuing ships than targets. Your ex-
planation is valid for a very unusual set of conditions, confusion, and weather..., but I
certainly hope you all have tested to make sure it is a very unusual result as well.

Mike, how many ships were sunk at Jutland? What range were they from each other?

It is the single largest collection of ships in a small area in the history of naval conflicts with the largest number of guns ever assembled. Even WWII has nothing to match it and they were both trying to sink ships, not flee.
FRAG Both sides at Jutland were organized fleets fleets of similar speeds and fully
armed. And the average weather conditions and visibility in the North Sea might be
matched around the Aleutian Islands, but not in the greater part of the Pacific. Both
fleets were trying to inflict damage while hopefully avoiding reciprical damage.

The situation in the game was not a "meeting engagement" in bad visibility between two
combat forces. As I understand the AAR's and comments, such a meeting engagement
between surface forces isn't possible in WITP. The situation quoted in your AAR was a
deliberate attempt by combat forces of one side to intercept and destroy NON-combat
forces of the other while they were engaged in an operation. The attacking forces had
an average speed of around 30kts, the defenders about 10 kts. The attackers outnum-
bered the defenders, and any one of the attackers was more than capable of sinking
any one of the defenders in short order. Jutland is a "straw dog" arguement.

As I said, Joel's description of events MIGHT be acceptable as one of those incidents
where everything went right for one side and everything went wrong for the other. Such
things do happen. But the NORM for this "contest" had better be a one-sided massacre
or 2by3 is going to have a lot of unhappy customers. Takes a lot of planning and a lot
of good luck to achieve such an encounter..., and if a player finds that the "normal
reward" for such an occurance is to be totally shafted by the combat system (which he
has little or no control over) he is not going to be a "happy camper". That was the crux
of my comment.
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freeboy
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by freeboy »

It might help me to see the dynamix of the actually equtions used to create results... not trying to peek at the codes guys, just wondering on these results as they do look odd. In the real world small units can have dramatic affects far beyond any quantifiable "guessing" to the unit strength or leadership.
Was there a bad leader check? or some other hidden factor... what do we not see?
"Tanks forward"
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freeboy
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by freeboy »

what is an eqution? sorry Equation[:(]
"Tanks forward"
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

Leo, had I not been fuel leaching and the ships had full ops points and they had been in multiple smaller TF's, things would have been a lot bloodier. Because of the size, only a few of the ships actually made contact.

I couldn't split them up because I needed to steal the fuel off the CA to keep the rest from running home. One of those classic problems of when is it time to go home. I pushed it an extra two turns and got some extra ships out of the deal.
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Joel Billings
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Joel Billings »

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag
JOEL. So we are basically to believe that this particular daylight surface action was that
one-in-a-hundred, extreme end-of-the-possibility-table, won't happen again in an entire
game result? If that is the case, your explanation makes sense. Otherwise, Tondern's
point looks pretty valid..., there isn't even a "Jarvis Bay" to go down valiantly buying
time for the rest to scatter. And there are more pursuing ships than targets. Your ex-
planation is valid for a very unusual set of conditions, confusion, and weather..., but I
certainly hope you all have tested to make sure it is a very unusual result as well.

Mike, how many ships were sunk at Jutland? What range were they from each other?

It is the single largest collection of ships in a small area in the history of naval conflicts with the largest number of guns ever assembled. Even WWII has nothing to match it and they were both trying to sink ships, not flee.
FRAG Both sides at Jutland were organized fleets fleets of similar speeds and fully
armed. And the average weather conditions and visibility in the North Sea might be
matched around the Aleutian Islands, but not in the greater part of the Pacific. Both
fleets were trying to inflict damage while hopefully avoiding reciprical damage.

The situation in the game was not a "meeting engagement" in bad visibility between two
combat forces. As I understand the AAR's and comments, such a meeting engagement
between surface forces isn't possible in WITP. The situation quoted in your AAR was a
deliberate attempt by combat forces of one side to intercept and destroy NON-combat
forces of the other while they were engaged in an operation. The attacking forces had
an average speed of around 30kts, the defenders about 10 kts. The attackers outnum-
bered the defenders, and any one of the attackers was more than capable of sinking
any one of the defenders in short order. Jutland is a "straw dog" arguement.

As I said, Joel's description of events MIGHT be acceptable as one of those incidents
where everything went right for one side and everything went wrong for the other. Such
things do happen. But the NORM for this "contest" had better be a one-sided massacre
or 2by3 is going to have a lot of unhappy customers. Takes a lot of planning and a lot
of good luck to achieve such an encounter..., and if a player finds that the "normal
reward" for such an occurance is to be totally shafted by the combat system (which he
has little or no control over) he is not going to be a "happy camper". That was the crux
of my comment.

What I described happened more often than a convoy getting wiped out. However, I can't say how likely what happened in this account will happen in the game. I don't know too many things about the engagement to know what I would want to have happen. Frag said something about them being low on ammo/fuel. Leader aggressiveness has a lot to do with what happens in a surface battle. My bias is against the mass slaughter scenario that you are looking for (again keeping in mind this was an open sea meeting of forces in a game with 12 hours pulses where a lot can happen during the 12 hours and the combat is in many ways an abstraction), but I don't know what would happen if you ran this 100 times. Given the way the game plays and its huge size, I can only listen to tester feedback as to whether things "feel" right or not. We had many areas where testers were concerned and we took corrective action when we agreed with the concern. This was not one of the areas of concern brought up by the testers.
All understanding comes after the fact.
-- Soren Kierkegaard
Mike Scholl
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mike Scholl »

Joel The kind of engagement described in the AAR refered to NEVER happened in the
Second World War. About the closest was the convoy intercepted by Scharnhorst &
Gneisenau when the Jervis Bay (an armed merchant cruiser) had her moment of fatal
glory and bought enough time that less than half the convoy was wiped out. But that
was two ships trying to chase down many running in different directions. The AAR had
more than one attacker to chase each runner; all had greatly superior speed and fire-
power; and there was no Jervis Bay. Under almost any imaginable set of circumstances
at least half the Japs should have been sunk. You need to test this one.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

Mike,

TF was too large because of fuel slurping. TF's bigger then 9 or so rarely bring their firepower to bear. Only a small part of the group engaged. This is the norm. A smaller TF would have been far more effective but then I would have had a bunch of ships stuck in an enemy hex with no fuel. Hardly a meeting engagement.

I have seen a few million surface engagements now. No two are ever the same, but smaller groups always beat out bigger groups as the ships are all within range and all unload their firepower quickly.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

This is more the norm: couple of runs worth.

25 ship transport group, 5 escorts.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74 (overcast)

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao
CA Haguro, Shell hits 4
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Seid
DE Steele
DE Tisdale, Shell hits 26, and is sunk
DE Whitman
DE Wileman
AK Steel Mariner, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Steel Navigator
AK Horace Luckenbach, Shell hits 27, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
AK J.L. Luckenbach
AK Susana, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Liloa
AK Mahimahi
AK Olopana
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers
AK West Cactus, Shell hits 2
AK West Camargo
AK American Packer, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK American Press
AK Wind Rush
AK Alcoa Pioneer
AK Dashing Wave
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao
CA Haguro
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Seid, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
DE Steele, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
DE Whitman, Shell hits 1
DE Wileman, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
AK Steel Navigator
AK J.L. Luckenbach
AK Liloa, Shell hits 1
AK Mahimahi, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AK Olopana, Shell hits 2, on fire
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers, Shell hits 19, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AK West Cactus, Shell hits 30, and is sunk
AK West Camargo
AK American Press
AK Wind Rush
AK Alcoa Pioneer
AK Dashing Wave
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley

14 out of 25 ships survive and flee the hex.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/13/44 (partly overcast)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
CA Haguro
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Seid, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DE Steele, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DE Tisdale, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DE Whitman
DE Wileman, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage
AK Steel Mariner
AK Steel Navigator
AK Horace Luckenbach
AK J.L. Luckenbach
AK Susana
AK Liloa
AK Mahimahi
AK Olopana, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers
AK West Cactus
AK West Camargo
AK American Packer
AK American Press
AK Wind Rush
AK Alcoa Pioneer
AK Dashing Wave
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
CA Haguro
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Whitman, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
AK Steel Mariner, Shell hits 1
AK Steel Navigator
AK Horace Luckenbach
AK J.L. Luckenbach
AK Susana, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Liloa
AK Mahimahi
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers
AK West Cactus, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK West Camargo
AK American Packer, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AK American Press, Shell hits 36, and is sunk
AK Wind Rush
AK Alcoa Pioneer, Shell hits 19, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AK Dashing Wave, Shell hits 2
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage

13 survive, 2 will go down this turn.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/12/44

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao
CA Haguro, Shell hits 4
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Seid
DE Steele
DE Tisdale, Shell hits 26, and is sunk
DE Whitman
DE Wileman
AK Steel Mariner, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Steel Navigator
AK Horace Luckenbach, Shell hits 27, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
AK J.L. Luckenbach
AK Susana, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Liloa
AK Mahimahi
AK Olopana
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers
AK West Cactus, Shell hits 2
AK West Camargo
AK American Packer, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK American Press
AK Wind Rush
AK Alcoa Pioneer
AK Dashing Wave
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Satawal at 60,74

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
CA Haguro
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki

Allied Ships
DE Seid
DE Steele, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DE Whitman, Shell hits 25, and is sunk
DE Wileman, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
AK Steel Navigator
AK J.L. Luckenbach, Shell hits 26, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Liloa, Shell hits 3, on fire
AK Mahimahi, Shell hits 2
AK Olopana, Shell hits 11, on fire, heavy damage
AK Onomea
AK Mormacwren
AK Jefferson Myers
AK West Cactus, on fire
AK West Camargo
AK American Press
AK Wind Rush, Shell hits 2, on fire
AK Alcoa Pioneer, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Dashing Wave, Shell hits 16, on fire, heavy damage
AK Island Mail
AK Robin Wentley

13 left.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

Heres what you are left with after sinking 10+ ships:

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brisd
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by brisd »

Thanks Mr Frag for running those tests. Good results from those it seems. The escorts sacrifice themselves to save convoy. I am curious what an escortless convoy vs a fresh CA/DD task force battle would look like.
"I propose to fight it out on this line if it takes all summer."-Note sent with Congressman Washburne from Spotsylvania, May 11, 1864, to General Halleck. - General Ulysses S. Grant
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Von Rom
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Von Rom »

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag

Mike,

TF was too large because of fuel slurping. TF's bigger then 9 or so rarely bring their firepower to bear. Only a small part of the group engaged. This is the norm. A smaller TF would have been far more effective but then I would have had a bunch of ships stuck in an enemy hex with no fuel. Hardly a meeting engagement.

I have seen a few million surface engagements now. No two are ever the same, but smaller groups always beat out bigger groups as the ships are all within range and all unload their firepower quickly.

I can be believe this.

I picked up some documentaries on the Pacific War recently, and had a chance to view them yesterday. They had some of the best naval footage I have seen to date.

What is interesting is that the ships within the TFs themselves are often widely separated. Add in some low lying cloud, mist or light fog, and all you can see at any one time is a few ships. I was quite surprised at how few ships I could actually see in some of the TFs.

This would help explain why a few ships at the head of the TF might take a disproportionate amount of hits from enemy ships: you're going to attack the ships you see.

I think in UV's and WiTP's naval battle screens, where they show all the ships lined up in a row, might make it seem like all the ships are at an equal distance from enemy ships, and so this may cause some confusion. In fact many, if not most ships, would be quite far away from the enemy.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

I think in UV's and WiTP's naval battle screens, where they show all the ships lined up in a row, might make it seem like all the ships are at an equal distance from enemy ships, and so this may cause some confusion. In fact many, if not most ships, would be quite far away from the enemy.

They simulate this via displaying ship names ... when you watch the thing play out, ships with no name are farther away. As they close in the names will show up. When you see ones with no names, they are not involved in the fight.
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Mr.Frag
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mr.Frag »

I am curious what an escortless convoy vs a fresh CA/DD task force battle would look like.

Not really that much difference. Once you get into large groups, the ammo limit pretty much dictates how many ships are going down.

I swapped out the DE's for more AK's ... still sitting at about 10 survivors.

I threw the 'evil' Tanaka in command and he pretty much made sure that every ship sunk was sunk by a torpedo, but he still broke off when ammo was low due to being in allied air space.

Perhaps we could tweek it to allow a greater amount of AA guns being brought to bear *but* then you risk being caught with no AA protection when the aircraft come to get revenge. I'm not too keen on that, especially for the Allies. Having them strip their AA to sink cargo ships then die to a bunch of bettys is not my idea of sound command.

Preventing the TF from unloading was the goal. They did that. TF was sent packing with around half the ships sunk. That is a pretty big success in the Naval business.
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dwesolick
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by dwesolick »

Hey, if you want an entire convoy wiped out try AIRPOWER![:D] (eg: Bismarck Sea)

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"The Navy has a moth-eaten tradition that the captain who loses his ship is disgraced. What do they have all those ships for, if not to hurl them at the enemy?" --Douglas MacArthur
sven6345789
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by sven6345789 »

thanks Mr. Frag for running the tests. seems to be obvious the system works out fine. At first, i was surprised too, that the results of this battle were as they were, but considering a) low ammo and b)low fuel , the result doesn't look that far off after all.
lets imagine being the admiral of a fleet in the middle of an area controlled by enemy airpower and low on... well, you know... .would you pursue the AK's risking the whole fleet having their pants down by morning? guess not. so the ML's sacrificed themselves. At night, considering the experience of allied crews at that time (regarding night battles, that is), there would be the night battle at first against the escorts (confusing already). Next, you would have to collect your fleet to hunt down the transports vanishing into the night (no radar yet). oh, your ships are low on ammo and fuel even more after the battle. better break of pursuit before running out of fuel.
lets also not forget we are talking about an area of about 60 miles per hex. at night at sea without radar a large area.

Two examples.
There was this attack mentioned earlier about Scharnhorst and Gneisenau attacking a convoy. Two BC's (or BB's, depends) against one armed merchant cruiser, and STILL HALVE of the TF got away.

leyte gulf, japanese BB's and CA's against allied CVE's and DD's (at day too).

Things don't always turn out the way you expect them to...
Bougainville, November 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. It rained today.

Letter from a U.S. Marine,November 1943
Mike Scholl
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Mike Scholl »

ORIGINAL: Mr.Frag
Day Time Surface Combat at 42,63

Japanese Ships
ML Ikitsushima, Shell hits 16, on fire, heavy damage
AP Africa Maru
AP Kashiwa Maru
AK Milan Maru
AP Tarushima Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
AP Tatsujin Maru
AP Tatsuta Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Teiryu Maru, Shell hits 2
AP Toyo Maru #2
AP Ujigawa Maru
AP Yamafuku Maru
AP Zyuyo Maru
AP Chinko Maru
AK Tokiwasan Maru

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CL Java
CL De Ruyter
CL Tromp
CL Dragon
CL Durban
CL Marblehead
CL Boise
DD Alden
DD Barker
DD Bulmer
DD Edsall
DD John D. Edwards
DD Paul Jones
DD Parrott
DD Whipple
DD Stewart
DD Banckert
DD Van Nes
DD Witte de With
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Piet Hein
DD Van Ghent

Japanese ground losses:
32 casualties reported

----

FOLKS. Please note that NONE of the TESTS conducted were in any way as one-sided
as the AAR quoted above...., yet in every case they produced more favorable results
for the attackers. So why do you act suprised and defensive when I questioned the
programming that could produce such a TOTALLY DISSAPPOINTING RESULT? Surely
it was a legitimate question and concern.
Adnan Meshuggi
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Adnan Meshuggi »

Sorry to correct you...
Jervis Bay was lost in action agains Admiral Scheer, the brave action of Jervis Bay caused only 5 more killed merchantmans.. but to be fair, Jervis Bay was nearly as large as Scheer, this ship was soley in action in rough sea and had not perfect conditions...

also the german captain did the mistake to overestimate the armed cruiser (the JB hit nothing, had no torpedos = was no danger to the raider) - but this is hindsight.

the two bc´s had contact to a nondefended convoy, sinking 23 ships in these engagements...

Admiral Hipper "killed" 8 or 9 ships out of 15 in another example

the "raider-situation" in the rough northern atlantic is something different to this engagement. BUT also here, at what time does this fight occur ? Had they contact to allied airforce (so they feat an airattack and have to run run run ?) Is the Admiral something good or just a silly idiot ? How much ammo does they have, what order ?`

I bet these things are all included, so this result could happen. But i agree, if a convoi is catched in perfect sea with good sight and a tough comander, these ships should be gone - all. Cause the attacking force could spread out and kill every ship with no problems... after the dms are gone. But we have to live with this problem (and also i say, i live with it - we can fix it in a patch)[:D]
Don't tickle yourself with some moralist crap thinking we have some sort of obligation to help these people. We're there for our self-interest, and anything we do to be 'nice' should be considered a courtesy dweebespit
Black Cat
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RE: Allied Player vs Japan AI

Post by Black Cat »

Just read through the great AR, thanks Frag.[8D]

Sir, You clearly have a set that you carry around in a wheelbarrow to keep HMS Repulse & POW in action that long within range of Japanese LBA [8D]
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