A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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Montrose
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A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Montrose »

Davao, South Philippines, December 14th 1941. Dawn.

Captain Teraoka was not happy. As he stood on the bridge of the Kiko Maru and surveyed the ongoing scenes of chaos, he made yet another mental curse against the arrogant fools who had put him in charge of this mission. With the war barely one week old, he had been placed in command of fifteen rag-tag transports and ordered to land the 56th Infantry Brigade in the bay of Davao. They would round up the slovenly American reserve troops on their base with no trouble, as had already been seen so often before.

Teraoka remembered well the assurances he had received during his briefing. The American air forces were destroyed on their airfields, their ships scattered or sunk, their troops third rate. He had been given one lowly minesweeper as an escort to the unloading point, and one minelayer would deploy a defensive minefield on the very small chance of some appearance from any stray minor enemy ships which might just have escaped from the all conquering IJN.

Since making landfall yesterday afternoon things had started to go wrong immediately. Naval guns had been positioned overlooking the bay, and for what now seemed like eternity his slow transports had been weaving to the best of their ability to avoid incoming shells. It hadn't worked, four of his transports had been burning for some time now, although they were still just about underway. Teraoka had been even more suprised when a handful of American P-35 fighters had appeared and had actually attempted to bomb his beleaguered force.

This wouldn't do. He was a servant of the Emperor, upholder of proud traditions. Putting aside his dark mood, he obtained confirmation of when the unloading would be completed and they could make their way out of this cauldron. Just a few more hours, so close now, so close.


60 miles South of Davao. Dawn. Bridge of the Heavy Cruiser USS Houston.

'Flank speed and good luck to you all!' With grim satisfaction, Rear Admiral Rockwell signed off. In the few days following the suprise attacks all over the Pacific on Allied forces, there had been nothing but bad news. However as stragglers gathered in the port of Balikpapan from bases far and wide, he was ordered to take command of all major warships which arrived and take a task force to a new base south of the Philippines. Apparently his competence and aggressive handling of warships in exercises had been noted by those higher up, and he knew that now was the hour to repay their faith in full.

Yesterday while in transit he had received the news that Japanese forces were landing at Davao, and incredibly they appeared to be virtually unescorted. Racing North throughout the night he was now in a postion his fellow admirals would envy. Dawn had broken, and it was a beautiful morning. Already he could see dark smudges on the blue horizon, telltale signs that the coastal guns had found their mark. He cast another reassuring glance down to the map, Davao could only be approached from the south, the base was at the apex of a horseshoe shaped bay which was surrounded on all other sides by land.

Picking up his binoculars he surveyed the task force. His four cuisers and six destroyers cutting through the sea were a mix of American, Dutch and British ships. Three times faster than most enemy transports, fully loaded with ammunition, plenty of fuel, steaming in against unloading and damaged transports bottled in a horseshoe bay. Hell yes, his fellow admirals would be envious, this was as good as it gets. 'Open fire at 25,000 yards, and close in for as long as possible thereafter'. The captain nodded, and seconds later the 8 inch guns swung into position...


Ok! Enough of the cheesey melodrama [8|]. For a bit of fun I would like to invite anyone to guess at how many enemy transports Rear Admiral Rockwell's task force sent to the bottom in the ensuing action. As a bit of extra help I'll (hopefully) post a screenie from round two of the action below - apologies if it doesn't work.

Guess away [:)]

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Fallschirmjager
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Fallschirmjager »

Five is my guess. But I would chase an unescorted TF to the depths of hell with the firepower you have.
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Synjin
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Synjin »

Based on the luck my surface TF's have had against unescorted transport TFs, I'd guess... ummmm

3?

[:(]
SiTheSly
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by SiTheSly »

I enjoyed the introduction.

I'm going low and saying two, I'm feeling sorry for the Jap commander
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Drex
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Drex »

I'll go with 5 since there is bound to be some torpedo hits.
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Bill Durrant
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Bill Durrant »

3 for me
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dtravel
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by dtravel »

You know, I started reading this and immediately went "Hey! What's he doing writing fiction in MY world!". [:'(] Then I continued reading and realized that the Nips are even more bleeped here than they were in my version. [:D]

And you guys are all guessing way too low. My Boise sank four all on her own. [8D] I'd say that here, only one or two damaged survivors - all the rest lost (some sinking while retreating the next day).
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Thayne
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Thayne »

Zero

At least, that would be the number when the shooting stops. Over the course of the next few days, ships would start dropping out of sight. But it would not sink right away.

This is my guess because:

(1) There are a lot of targets. This means fewer hits per target. This means fewer kills -- at least right away.

(2) The game does not seem to be written to make it easy for ships to sink right away. I have had a tanker with a system damage of 98 get hit by planes from a light carrier -- and stay afloat -- and get hit by planes from the same carrier again the next day -- and stay afloat, at least for a few more hours. It's sinking was reported later that night.
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2Stepper
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by 2Stepper »

Going to opt with TWO.

Reasons are similar to what Thayne pointed out but with one additional. The distance in which firing began. 16000 yards. The attacking force will expend a share of led into the water just to close ranges.

I do think perhaps one or two others would sink as they limp away, but just from the shooting action alone I'll go with TWO.
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Black Cat
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Black Cat »

All of them over a 2-3 day period I`d guess[8D]
Mike Scholl
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Mike Scholl »

Based on my experiance, I'll go with 1-2 sunk; 2-3 damaged, and the rest not touched.
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siRkid
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by siRkid »

I'll go with 3 sunk.
Former War in the Pacific Test Team Manager and Beta Tester for War in the East.

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Platoonist
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Platoonist »

Ooooo. Vegas in the Pacific. I'll put my bet on two as well. Hit me. [8D]
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Copper
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Copper »

im guessin none, zip, zelch.
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Montrose
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Montrose »

Thanks to everyone who had a go with this bit of nonsense. No one got the number right although a few were close. The reason I posted this little story was that for me anyway the result was rather suprising, and not at all what I was expecting. The battle opened at 25,000 yards due to the perfect visibility, and lasted for five rounds until disengagement. By the time the action was over the Allied force had sunk...drum roll...
.
.
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One enemy ship.

I was so suprised I continued it as a head-to-head game so I could see if this was just Fog of War, but sure enough we had sunk one transport. Mind you, it was thoroughly sunk with nearly 50 hits. Two others were crippled and may not have made it, but the rest of the Japanese TF promptly buggered off out of engagement range (including some CD gun damaged and burning ships somehow escaping at 5 knots or less). Bearing in mind the very restricted geography, excellent weather, battered state and makeup of the Japanese, elite Allied leader, and size and status of the Allied TF, I was expecting hardly anything to survive.

Unfortunately I now know that by continuing it as a head-to-head I lost access to the combat report, however I have sat through several re-runs of that turn to see if I was just unlucky. Even more suprisingly, it seems that I was lucky to sink one. A common theme was that ships victimised one or two targets to excess, while the rest escaped scott free. In the the four more turns I replayed just to watch the same battle (listed below), on the first time for some reason the attack stopped after just two rounds, and on the fourth occasion the Japanese were moving out of the invasion area when we ran into them at night. The night attack was bizarrely the most effective. The other three daylight attacks were even worse than the first one, with no ships sunk.

Other threads have told of similar stories, and FWIW can I put the following thesis forward. Are ships being engaged according to their Detection Level? If so, those which are burning and inevitably more conspicuous are simply being targeted more and more while their undamaged bretheren are ignored, even in daylight and perfect visibility. What kind of TF commander would order his fleet to expend their ammunition on a ship which was already shot to pieces and ablaze from stem to stern, and not trouble the rest at all? I tried to think of some way that the Japanese could have escaped at least 90% intact from this, but it is against any logic of mine.

I hope this isn't construed as a rant against this otherwise very fine game, and FWIW can offer two suggestions if the devs would care to stop this from happening. One is to drop the current targetting routine and simply randomise the target from any visible enemy ships. Another could be to check for sunk ships at the end of individual ships firing rather than just at the end of the phase, to stop blazing, atomised, sunk when the AI actually checks it, hulks from being over-riddled.

The Tac-Ai also seems to break off from a can't lose situation way too early, but I'm not sure how they could encourage it to stay engaged. However at the end of the battle our ammunition was still plentiful and all ships were still capable of 30 knot+ speeds. Unfortunately I now currently think that Surface Combat TFs are pretty much a waste of time, if they can't materially hurt something like the Japanese had here.

I'd be very interested to hear any thoughts on this [:)] Thanks.

The replay results:
_______________________________________
Day Time Surface Combat, near Davao at 41,61

Japanese Ships
ML Ikitsushima, Shell hits 15, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Tomozono Maru #3
AP Hie Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AP Kiko Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Sanfuku Maru
AP Tango Maru
AP Tarushima Maru
AP Tatsujin Maru
AP Tatsuta Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Teiryu Maru
AP Tenryu Maru
AK Tokiwa Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire
AP Toyo Maru #2
AP Ujigawa Maru
AP Yamafuku Maru
AP Zyuyo Maru
AK Tokiwasan Maru

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CL De Ruyter
CL Marblehead
CL Boise
DD Alden
DD John D. Edwards
DD Pillsbury
DD Scout
DD Thanet
DD Thracian

______________________________________
Day Time Surface Combat, near Davao at 41,61

Japanese Ships
ML Ikitsushima, Shell hits 5, on fire
MSW Tomozono Maru #3, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AP Hie Maru
AP Kiko Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Sanfuku Maru
AP Tango Maru
AP Tarushima Maru
AP Tatsujin Maru
AP Tatsuta Maru
AP Teiryu Maru
AP Tenryu Maru, Shell hits 9, on fire, heavy damage
AK Tokiwa Maru
AP Toyo Maru #2, Shell hits 29, on fire, heavy damage
AP Ujigawa Maru
AP Yamafuku Maru
AP Zyuyo Maru
AK Tokiwasan Maru

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CL De Ruyter
CL Marblehead
CL Boise
DD Alden
DD John D. Edwards
DD Pillsbury
DD Scout
DD Thanet
DD Thracian

_______________________________________
Day Time Surface Combat, near Davao at 41,61

Japanese Ships
ML Ikitsushima, Shell hits 24, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Tomozono Maru #3
AP Hie Maru
AP Kiko Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Sanfuku Maru
AP Tango Maru
AP Tarushima Maru
AP Tatsujin Maru, Shell hits 2, on fire
AP Tatsuta Maru, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AP Teiryu Maru
AP Tenryu Maru
AK Tokiwa Maru
AP Toyo Maru #2
AP Ujigawa Maru
AP Yamafuku Maru
AP Zyuyo Maru
AK Tokiwasan Maru

Allied Ships
CA Houston
CL De Ruyter
CL Marblehead
CL Boise, Shell hits 1
DD Alden
DD John D. Edwards
DD Pillsbury
DD Scout
DD Thanet
DD Thracian

______________________________
Night Time Surface Combat at 42,62

Japanese Ships
ML Ikitsushima
MSW Tomozono Maru #3
AP Hie Maru
AP Kiko Maru, Shell hits 48, on fire, heavy damage
AP Sanfuku Maru
AP Tango Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Tarushima Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AP Tatsujin Maru
AP Tatsuta Maru, Shell hits 18, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AP Teiryu Maru
AP Tenryu Maru
AK Tokiwa Maru
AP Toyo Maru #2
AP Ujigawa Maru
AP Yamafuku Maru
AP Zyuyo Maru
AK Tokiwasan Maru

Allied Ships
CA Houston, Shell hits 1
CL De Ruyter
CL Marblehead
CL Boise
DD Alden
DD John D. Edwards
DD Pillsbury
DD Scout
DD Thanet
DD Thracian

[Edit] Typos.
I spend my time building castles in the air, but in the end all of them, and I, blow away in the wind.

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Williamb
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Williamb »

I think you mean one outright.

maybe some otehrs wont make it back to port ?

Have seen some aars that suggest ships sink later from damage inflicted.
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Thayne
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Thayne »

This actually is not a senseless result.

The standard tactic for a bunch of freighters who get jumped by an enemy task force is to scatter. They head off in different directions. The attackers have the ability to get a small number of ships. By then, the rest are gone.

The attackers have the option of splitting up their force -- one ship chases each enemy frieghter. But, that has its own risks.

I think these results are quite realistic.

Thayne
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Platoonist
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Platoonist »

Well...before you think surface combat TFs are a waste of time.....remember this. Despite the small number of Japanese ships lost or damaged the 56th Infantry Brigade never made it ashore at Davao. That's gotta knock a dent in the Japanese time schedule. [;)]
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doomonyou
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by doomonyou »

I brought up this exact issue in a post that must now be something like 7 pages in. My example was the Repulse and POW at 20000 yards with 4 DDs catching like six AK/APs and a PG and only sinking one PG and one AK with damage to one more. In broad daylight with no rain and a mininmum speed advatange over the other ships of at least 10 knots.

this is constantly happening to me in my game. some people said " oh you only bump into one part of the convoy. Apparently convoys in this game are spread out over the full 60 miles of the hex, but if attacked by a sub, all of the escorts instantaneously reassemble overhead of the sub and take thier shots at it (Oh they may miss but bammo thier right there)

There is no assemblage of ships I have ever been able to put together that can catch more than 30% of an enemy convoy escorted by minor ships (a few pgs, a MSW, a DE or DD etc.), IN DAYLIGHT

Frankly while NIGHT combat it makes sense ( you could more easily scatter obviously) in daytime this is probably the most frustrating part of the game.

Surface combatants are litterally pointless wastes of time in comparative damage values especially against helpless opposition. Three sub ecounters with lone subs will likely end up doing as much damage to any unarmed convoy you find as will pretty much the entire surface complement of the DEI, PI and british Malaysa encountering the same thing on one day in the bright open ocean with 2 knot breezes and one foot swells.

The best part is when the convoy is a spotted convoy and your ships know the approximate number of ships in the area (say 10 are reported) then they encounter two of them (and of course one is the MSW because when hunting loaded troop transports I always take the MSW down with extra rounds), pound them to scrap, torpedo the floatsam, and depth charge the splinters on the seabed and then turn around without bothering to chase down the rest of the ships that they KNOW Are there because three hours ago a PBY saw 10 ships in that bay in the southern part of Davao where there is litterally NO EGRESS from but your ships are done with day light massacre because while they know at least a few more helpless victims loaded with helpless japanese troops are waiting thier turn to die its miller time and those cold brews are back at base.

/rant off
Williamb
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RE: A bit of WitP fun, take a guess, everyone welcome.

Post by Williamb »

Hm was a TASK Force of ships that caught that Convoy. you'd think they'd break off chasing in all directions. Not like those ships can run fast.

Trying to recall a run made by the Scharenhost of the german navy during WWII. It hit a convoy on the way to Russia and they scattered also. but I believe that the Scharenhost ALONE sank 8 to 10 ships in a 3 hour period.
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