KID!

[PeteG662]

Kid,

Hope you are prepared for another one. Frances will be on your door Saturday early morning accroding to NOAA.

Forum......time to say some prayers for Kid as this is number two now in less than a month!

Pete in Tallahassee

[cuppajoe]

Kid .. I am with you ... here in Vero Beach .. we could take a direct hit also .. I have already ordered all my battle fleets out of harms way

[PeteG662]

Good luck to you too Cuppa Joe! My kids are in West Palm so I feel the anxiety!

[PeteG662]

Here is official NOAA track

[cuppajoe]

Yep .. I am right where the little line hits the coast ... Lot can change over the next 24 hours though

[PeteG662]

Well NOAA says it ain't looking so good.......good luck man

[Ron Saueracker]

Choosing to live in paradise comes with a price, I guess. Do you guys ever get seriously concerned?

What I don't understand is why people buy houses on the sides of a Mount Shasta or something. Volcanoe people!!![8|][:)]

[DrewMatrix]

Choosing to live in paradise comes with a price

Nah, living here in Cahleefohneeya I am in Paradise and I have no concern . . . Excuse me, be right back.

(goes and stands in doorway until earth stops shaking)

Ok, I am back,

. . . no concern at all about Hurricanes.[:D]

[PeteG662]

Fires, mudslides and earthquakes in the land of fruits and nuts. Love Cali.....spent 4 years on Ft Ord where they did bio warfare testing way back when! LOL

[DrewMatrix]

spent 4 years on Ft Ord

Did you ever get to the Battle Simulation Center at Ft Ord? It was a huge hall that looked like a High School gym with little rooms all along the sides, each with a telephone to call other rooms but from which you couldn't see the main floor.

We used to play miniatures there (mostly Napoleonic) as guests of the US Army (and with a lot of the Army playing in the miniatures games).

That was, what, about 1985 or so?

I spent a lot of weekends there.

[cuppajoe]

Well .. newest update just came in and it does not look good ... evac orders go out to the ocean area and mobile home parks by noon tomorrow. They are VERY concerned here, especially for the older homes . Supposedly I am OK for now , new home, built under better codes and further inland (about 7 miles from the beach).. gonna be a helluva ride though

[rroberson]

ack, I hope you get through it okay...I use to live in Florida's panhandle, so I've seen my share of hurricanes...Ill take 110 in the shade here in arizona anytime to that.

[PeteG662]

Here is the update but no picture this time.......

000 WTNT41 KNHC 011445 TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY... FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. FORECASTER AVILA


As for the Battle Sim Center at Ord, I did some experiments there with digital communications between the Artillery's TACFIRE system (Light TACFIRE to be precise) and the Mortar Ballistic Computer. Developed the SOP for that adopted Armywide since then so the 11Cs could talk with the 13Bs and coordinate fires!

[PeteG662]

CUPPA JOE,

Houses are built to withstand up to Cat 3 only by building code......you will have damage if the eye gets close enough to you or one of the tornadoes comes by.....be careful out there......it will be passing up my way end of the weekend after it nails you guys......

Pete in Tally

[PeteG662]

Latest Advisory with picture

[cuppajoe]

After 2001 building codes went up .. New homes, with storm/hurricane shutters are supposed to withstand 130 - 140 mile hour winds ... this will be a good test

[PeteG662]

Yeah......tell that to the folks in Charlotte County......

[Kwik E Mart]

i have brother in law in vero, mother and father in law in jax, my parents and siblings in orlando...they aren't done getting all the trees off the yards and cars and roofs and now this one comes rolling in...makes our earthquakes out here in kahliforniah seem meek, but at least there is some warning for the big storms...

my prayers for all...unless you decide to stay in a trailer park, then darwin's law trumps any prayers i may have...

[PeteG662]

I will post NOAA data as I get it for anyone concerned.....mainly during daytime hours when I can access it from work.

[Skyros]

Our paper, The State, here in Columbia has a good piece of advice, Keep your eye on the cone not on the line.

Be safe and keep the laptop charged up.[;)]