Future of games like WITP

[madmickey]

Can companies afford to put out games like WITP (I am talking about the company that develops it)? The team must have spent a couple years developing it and I would be surprised if they sold more than 10,000 units. Most people are playing either shooter games or much simpler strategy games. It would be sad to see an end of development of these types of games. What are other peoples feeling.

[Oliver Heindorf]

it has already started....360 pacific gone, SSI sold out, gone Microprose financial collapse due to mismanagement....look around, all the games you get now are more simplyfied, more balla balla etc. just glad that companies like matrix are around here. Dont forget that the games we play are usually for the older customer and the younger arent that much attracted

[Mark VII]

HEY!!! Your not calling my old are you? I'm only 48, thought that was pretty young. I still feel young!

[Halsey]

BRAVO! CHEER! WAVE! [:D]

[ZOOMIE1980]

ORIGINAL: madmickey

Can companies afford to put out games like WITP (I am talking about the company that develops it)? The team must have spent a couple years developing it and I would be surprised if they sold more than 10,000 units. Most people are playing either shooter games or much simpler strategy games. It would be sad to see an end of development of these types of games. What are other peoples feeling.

Good question. I'm not so sure how "poor" these guys really are. They aren't rich, but they aren't poor, either. 10,000 units sold at $70.00 a pop is $700,000 for a three man company (2 X 3) minus whatever cut Matrix and DR get out of the distribution side isn't chump change. Even half that is still a decent take for a two-three year effort by three guys (and it's not like this one title is GG's and Co.s only revenue source, either).

But as has been stated elsewhere, the grognard population is aging and is not being replaced from the next generation of gamers. So event he tiny market there is today will just about go away. There will always be at least a few, though, but maybe not enough to sustain a business. I think, long term, what really good games will come will come out of non-profit groups at very small volumes, probably from collaborative, open-source type efforts done by people as a labor of love rather as a career or as a source of income.

[Speedysteve]

Well i'm 24. Is that classed as old? Be careful now [;)]

[madmickey]

10,000 may be top end of sales. I would like to know how many patches have been downloaded. Of course I usually redownload patches when I clean up my windows (I have a really fast internet connection and even though I have a CD burner I trust a redownload more.)

[Bradley7735]

Well, I happen to be an accountant for a software company. Let's just run the numbers. We'll assume 10k units sold, but none of us really know how many units have sold so far. I also don't know how the relationship between 2x3 and Matrix works. I think that 2x3 had 1.5 developers on WITP. I'm guessing that Matrix also had 1.5 people on the project (I was guessing only 1, but Joel said there were plural bodies in Germany who could do the 1.3 patch, so I'm guessing more than 1, but no more than 2)

So, that'd be 3 full time developers on this project. I think it's been 4 years in development (correct me if I'm wrong.)

A developer will cost a company more than $100,000 per year. Let's say they each make $65k. multiply that by 1.5 to get the full burdened cost for each dev. So, 3 developers for 4 years is about $1.2 million in costs.

10k units times $75. (some of us paid $10 more for the CD) is $750,000. Digital river takes 20% (or at least that's what they take from my company). Net revenue is $600k. Net loss on project is $600k. Now take into account that they've got one to two people continuing to make patches......

I'm betting that I'm off in the number of developers or the number of years in development, because no company can take a 50% loss on a project and stay in business. (maybe they pay their dev's less than $65k per year in places other than Seattle) But, even if my numbers are over stated, Matrix can not possibly be doing better than break even. Mike Scholl once suggested that some of us pony up more $ to keep this game going. I would pay for future patches, if necessary. I love this game. I love the fact that there are several people who test the game and moderate this site for free. I love the fact that Joel will give us the facts, despite other's flaming his company for doing so. I love the fact that people can make mods/scenarios for this game (can't wait for WPO). And, on top of all the great stuff that we get in the game, this forum has educated me more than all my other schooling.

It's a shame that all the young ones want to play doom and such. I wish there was a huge market for these types of games..... What was the topic of this thread?? I'm rambling now. I should probably get back to work.

[tanker4145]

I think there's more young wargamers than you think. Heck I'm only 26, so definately a young'en to most of you. Of course, I don't know anyone else my age who has this game. But there are some of us.

[ZOOMIE1980]

You've got the idea right. For personnel costs we always take salary X 1.5. Not sure these guys are even on salary or not, or if they even have any benifits, which means that typical 1.5 may not be right.

Not sure the sales figure, they guard that like some sort of national compartmented top secret piece of info for some reason. 2X3 is three guys and I think they borrowed one programmer from Matrix, part time, and Matrix graphics guy did the artwork.

I think this thing was about 2 1/2 to 3 years in development, but not all three worked on it 100% of the time, either.

They obviously make enough to continue their efforts long term and Matrix makes enough to send several people to Germany for a week and still pay the bills. I'll agree they are not getting rich but they clearly aren't poor either. So who knows other than them?

The thread seems to be concerned with the future of the genre. How much longer is there going to be a fanbase large enough to sustain even a small business? Most of us are old-fart, over 40's or older. I don't see a lot of teenagers or twenty-somethings taking up interest in the genre. The genre is going the way of baseball in this country. Once there is no longer a critical mass sufficient to sustain a for-profit business it will only survive out on a place like SourceForge.....

If I ever get to the point where I can starting working on my own stuff, I will do so without any expecation of any income of any kind coming from it....I won't be quitting my day job to do it, in otherwords...

[Skyros]

Well I tried to ensure the future, but my nephews got caught up in Magic, shootm ups, paint ball and sports. Then I had three daughters, which at least they play computer games, SIMS2 etc. I am teaching my 7 year old LOtR Risk so maybe there is hope. I was taken by surprise that the 30th anniversery of D&D just past, that made me feel old since I started playing that when it first game out.

Well, we may not need any other games since WITP may take up all of my time just playing the standard games. I don't know if I will even find the time to play Tankers mods. Its like I keep telling my wife, all those books and games are for when I retire and I have time to read and play them all.[:D]

[Dereck]

I got my start with the old Avalon Hill board war games back in the late 1970s most of which I still own.

My favorite computer war games:

360
V For Victory: D-Day Utah Beach <== unfortunately can't be played with Windows 95, 98 or XP [:(]

Avalon Hill
Operation Crusader
Stalingrad

Swfte International
Gettysburg

Interactive Magic
American Civil War: From Sumter to Appomattox

SSI
War in Russia
Pacific War
Conflict: Korea
Second Front: Germany Turns East
Western Front: The Liberation of Europe 1944-1945

Unfortunately games like these are a dying breed. Instead of the flashy shoot 'em up type games these need actual THOUGHT to play. There's exceptions to what I'm about to say which is that the majority of people below 30 don't seem to have the patience or aptitude for "mental" games. They want instant gratification of blowing someone or something up. Lack of imagination? My generation grew up without computers or computer games ... the box a refrigerator or dryer came in was a good play thing for a good part of two weeks. My generation saw the box as a potential fort, club house, hideaway, etc ... generations now only have the imagination to see a box [:(]

It's a shame too because games that make someone think and plan are far more enjoyable -- in my opinion at least -- than ones that depend only on reflex.

End of my soapbox statement [:-]

[invernomuto]

28 y.o. here. The Young Wargamers Syndacate is growing...

Bye

[Skyros]

I agree dereck, I learned so much from playing the old board games. Geography, history and basic math. I don't know how many times I have sat in meetings where I could add up a column of numbers faster than the guys with hand helds. "Thats a 4-1 ratio your talking about" and I did not even take in the affect of terrain. That is probably the one drawback to the computer game is the lack of manual number crunching, but then if I had to keep track of everything I would never finish a turn.

[John B]

As one of the oldies who started off with boardgaming back in the 1970's, the trend there too has been towards simpler quicker games. Presumably one factor is that the average gamer of either board or PC games has generally only so much time to put into a game. The ones with the greatest time are probably those footloose and fancy-free youngsters, and us irresponsible oldies who once more have a bit of free time after kids and work have gone away.

So in theory I'd think that those two ends of the gaming spectrum will always have an interest in WitP type games, but the majority in between probably not. The best solution I think, is what Matrix already seem to be showing signs of doing. That is to produce a mix of the "popular" games to generate income, whilst carrying on producing a smaller number of "WitPs". Lets hope there will always be designers and producers with an eye to more than just making money

[ZOOMIE1980]

ORIGINAL: Skyros

Well I tried to ensure the future, but my nephews got caught up in Magic, shootm ups, paint ball and sports. Then I had three daughters, which at least they play computer games, SIMS2 etc. I am teaching my 7 year old LOtR Risk so maybe there is hope. I was taken by surprise that the 30th anniversery of D&D just past, that made me feel old since I started playing that when it first game out.

Well, we may not need any other games since WITP may take up all of my time just playing the standard games. I don't know if I will even find the time to play Tankers mods. Its like I keep telling my wife, all those books and games are for when I retire and I have time to read and play them all.[:D]

Now there's a curious thought for you! A game so compelling, so captivating, and requiring such a time commitment, bith daily and long term, that it leaves room for nothing else, hitting a very small market, effectively kills the market for anything else coming after for years because we are all locked up playing this title.....

Is that far fetched? Compare the message traffic on this forum with all the other Matrix game forums. If that's any indication of the proportion in which people are playing the respective games......ouch....

[Oleg Mastruko]

Haha, no Zoomie, I just think we are more vocal on this board than on others, and also we formed sorta tightly knit group where we all know each other by name, avatar and posting style. I don't think the volume of posts is necesarilly indicative of anything, after all, 90% of posts here lately are just babling/chatting etc. since we all seem to be waiting for the patch.

For far less time consuming games, yet fun and challenging, check out GG WAW and FPG *when* they're out. Both very promising titles, though I won't sacrifice my "WITP time" for them (have to find more time to play them all)

Oleg

[Dereck]

I agree dereck, I learned so much from playing the old board games. Geography, history and basic math. I don't know how many times I have sat in meetings where I could add up a column of numbers faster than the guys with hand helds. "Thats a 4-1 ratio your talking about" and I did not even take in the affect of terrain. That is probably the one drawback to the computer game is the lack of manual number crunching, but then if I had to keep track of everything I would never finish a turn.

I have one board game I never played that I bought a few months before I went into the Navy: War in the Pacific: The Campaign Against Imperial Japan, 1941-45 by SPI (Simulations Publications, Inc). It can be compared to the board game version of War in the Pacific. The maps when laid out were over 10 feet by 10 feet. It would have been a fun game to play but I do have to admit playing the computer WiTP would probably be much simpler as complicated as both games are.

I think those of us who got our start with the old board war games got hooked at an early age and games like "War in the Pacific" draw us like magnets.

I just wish Gary Grigsby would make about the American Civil War on the same scale as "War in the Pacific" -- I'd certainly jump at that game!

[byron13]

ORIGINAL: ZOOMIE1980

Now there's a curious thought for you! A game so compelling, so captivating, and requiring such a time commitment, bith daily and long term, that it leaves room for nothing else, hitting a very small market, effectively kills the market for anything else coming after for years because we are all locked up playing this title.....

Is that far fetched? Compare the message traffic on this forum with all the other Matrix game forums. If that's any indication of the proportion in which people are playing the respective games......ouch....

Never happen. Me and all of my friends have been guilty of buying a boardgame and never playing it. It was almost worth the price just to look at the mapboards and feel and smell the counters. Fantasizing about playing was almost worth the money. I still have a friend that buys esoteric board games and just puts them in a cabinet (he makes too much money, apparently). I would guess the same thing would happen with a computer game: I would buy it to make sure I could get a copy, assuming that I would play eventually.

I think the real problem is the demographics. I'm not sure what the difference is, but the kids - generally - seem to be less interested in this type of game. Whether it is short attention span, the fact that older players in their youth regularly interacted with WWII vets, there weren't as many forms of entertainment when the older crowd was growing up and got hooked as a result, I don't know. My guess is that the FPS games are more exciting and that's what the kids go for (and why not?); there was no such thing as a fast-action FPS board game when the older ones grew up (Sniper and Squad Leader are the closest things I can think of), so we're more comfortable with a slower paced, contemplative game.

[Honda]

Will there be a merket? YES!
Look at it this way. OLDER people play wargames and play them for a long,long time. Those kids shooting up, running aroung the house not caring about the total lack of strategy while at it will, I repeat, will grow up sooner or later (well most of them will). Now take the number of kids playing any type of computer game in the 80s and calculate the percentage of those playing wargames. Those kids playing wargames are people that are still playing. People in their 40s playing shooters are a rarity compared to 40 year YOUNG wargamers.
Then take the number of kids playing comuter games today and calculate the percentage playing wargames. The percentage number is much lower but the actual number much higher. And that number is what counts because wargamers stay more loyal to their games. Now imagine 100 kids buying games for 5 years and 5 kids playing wargames for 30 years (essentialy growing up/maturing with them) .
This math says there will be a market as 2nd and 3rd generation of wargamers start boosting the ranks of our honorable 1st generaton wargamers (commonly known as Antedeluvians)