Russia First strategy for Japan

[Hirohito]

I have often wondered how the war in the pacific would have turned out if a large bulk of the japanese forces had not sat the war out in korea, china, and manchuko (spelling?). So, I put together a Russia first strategy to see what might have happened.

For this strategy, abandon the central pacific islands and move the troops, planes and ships based there to formosa for redeployment later. Move the small independent regiments, bridages, and battalions to the chinese coastal cities to make up the garrison points of the divisions that are in these coastal cities. Then move the divisions out of the coastal cities into positions to actually do something useful. For some of these divisions it means move into position to hit russia, for most it means move into position to hit china a bit later. Garrison the bases in thailand so that the allies don't get a cheap victory there and leave small garrisons in indo china to keep the allied player from an equally cheap victory. The air power and naval power in indo china should keep the allies out, I can't imagine that an amphibious force aimed at Indochina wouldn't get shot to pieces.

Launch amphibious landings at the north tip of Sakhelin island and the far eastern part of siberia, land as many divisions as you can free up in the north eastern part of korea for an attack on vladisvostok. Do NOT launch an amphibious landing at vladisvostok, you'll just get blown to pieces by the coastal guns there. Move all the troops in korea to the line north and west of vladisvostok so that you can move in behind and cut off all the Russian forces facing south and west. Move all the troops in Manchuko (spelling?) west to a point where you are comfortable that you can cut off the trans siberian railroad without yourself being cut off. Move the divisions in the chinese coastal towns that you freed up by sending reinforcements to garrison the coastal towns to the same point west in Manchuko to aid in cutting off the trans siberian railroad. Move as many divisions out of china as you are comfortable with to aid in the offensive against the russians. If you chop the Russian army up into several pieces you can isolate each piece and destroy it piecemeal. This will give you a large amount of resource points once you take all the Russian bases in the east. The oil at the northern end of Sakhelin island is a nice bonus. Once this campaign is over you then move the Kwantang army into position to aid in the conquest of China, as well as the borrowed divisions from china and the divisions that were redirected from the postponed campaigns in the PI, DEI, Malaysia, Singapore, and Burma. With pretty much the entire Japanese army and air forces turned loose in china, the chinese cannot hold. You should take all of the bases in china. Use the IJN to keep PI, DEI, Malaysia, and Singapore from being resupplied and reinforced. You should be able to give the allies a bloody nose at sea if you don't get overextended. Use political points to release air units and the armor units from the home defense and switch the air units to keep PI neutralized and move the armor units to help first with Russia then with China. Once China is taken move into Malaysia, then Burma, then India. For each of these campaigns keep as much of the imperial forces together in one large mass as possible. This will ensure that you can overwhelm whatever Allied forces are opposing you. Once India and all the bases in the Indian Ocean are taken then take the DEI in reverse starting with Medan. Lastly take the Phillipines. By the time the PI falls, the allies will be in a position to oppose you in papua new guinea and the central and south pacific areas. Whether you can successfully push into these areas will depend on your skill. But, you will have several things going for you. Large resource, factory, and oil production numbers in the conquered Russian, Chinese, Indian, Malaysian, DEI and PI territories. Air force units freed up from the home defense, the Kwantang army, and the china front for use against the US and Australian forces. The British pretty much out of the war. The IJN pretty much intact.

I can see no obvious flaws in this plan as long as the Japanese player sticks to a philosophy of keep the Imperial forces together as much as possible in one large mass and only fight when and where you can cut off, surround, and overwhelm the enemy, and use the IJN as a large raiding force to keep the Allied supply lines disrupted. I see no way that the Russian forces can hold out, and with the Kwantang army added to operations against China, as well as the twelve divisions freed up by delaying operations against Malaysia, Singapore, DEI, and PI, I see no way that the Chinese can hold out. With those two enemies out of the way and the captured resources, factories, oil production, and manpower totals added to the Imperial war making effort, it seems plausable that the British can be driven from the war in Singapore, Malaysia, Burma, India and the Indian ocean.

So, what are the flaws to this strategy? And please don't respond with "the japanese won't have enough resources in '45 to stop the americans with their unlimited resources".

I think the considerations are pretty straighforward. Does conquering the Russian territory first, and then China give enough resource points, factories, oil production, and manpower points to offset delaying the conquest of PI, DEI, Singapore and Malaysia for a year or two? Can Russia be conquered in a reasonable time frame? If the Japanese player throws everything including the now freed up Kwantang army into China will China fall? Does abandoning the central pacific do more harm than good? Can India be taken if the Japanese player makes an all out effort there? Is knocking Britain out of the pacific worth the effort? Do the allies build PI and DEI up to such a large degree that they can now not be taken if the Japanese player waits a year or two to invade them?

These are the discussions I want to have.

Hirohito

[WiTP_Dude]

****, you're going to leave me hanging?

[madflava13]

Uh, tell me where the resources, oil and threat is, and I'll tell you why your plan works...

[WiTP_Dude]

The only problem his newest plan is that it isn't necessary. China can be taken out without fighting Russia. Makes no sense to make a new enemy when you've got several all ready.

[Tankerace]

Sounds like the Hitler syndrome, you are doing so well you have to find someone else to fight.

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: WiTP_Dude

The only problem his newest plan is that it isn't necessary. China can be taken out without fighting Russia. Makes no sense to make a new enemy when you've got several all ready.

It makes sense if you can knock that enemy out of the war quickly and in the process you gain sufficient resources to make the effort worthwhile, and at the same time you free up the kwantang army to do something useful.

It is my opinion that for these reasons knocking the russians out early is worthwhile.

Hirohito

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Sounds like the Hitler syndrome, you are doing so well you have to find someone else to fight.

So you have no opinion on the actual merits or problems with the plan itself? I stated the reasons for taking this approach which are pick up needed resources and free up troops that are badly needed elsewhere. How is it that the Japanese player is "doing so well" on the first day of the campaign? That doesn't make any sense.

Hirohito

[kaiser73]

How much Oil and Resources you can get from Russia?

Anyway, i think you won't be able to take russia, china and india in less than 1 year. So you won't be able to take any SRA islands.

Timescale:
2 weeks to get Japan Divs (from China) in Position to attack USSR.
3-4 months to annhilate Russia
1 month to get Japan Divs from manchuko to China
3-4 Months to win in China (China got time to build fortresses to lvl 9 in any chokepoint)
1 Month to get Japan Divs in Burma/Malaya
1 Month to win in Burma/Malaya

So you are in October '42 (i think i have been optimistic in the tmeschedule) and you have China, Burma/Malaya and Russia. Allies have lost nothing other than China. In October, with 10 months of free preparation and USN now stronger, i can't see Japan taking anything else.
So basically your plan proposes to not take any SRA base to take Russia.

Maybe if you move your bulk army to India you can take it. But it will take ages (2 months to go to up through burma) since chinese and manchuko garrisons can't be transported and you won't have enough PP to change HQ to many Divs. But then you will have the same problem. Once you conquer all india you will have to move it back to actually defend from Allies. And it will take lot of time as well.
Result, to take India as you say in '43 you will need 1 year to win and move units back.

Summarizing weakpoints (IMO obviously):
1) You lose resources (Russia can't match SRA)
2) You give Allies a very advanced starting point in '43
3) As a player in PBEM, he can move all russians Divs to defend few cities, and so delaying you a lot delaying your timetable even more

[Tankerace]

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Sounds like the Hitler syndrome, you are doing so well you have to find someone else to fight.

So you have no opinion on the actual merits or problems with the plan itself? I stated the reasons for taking this approach which are pick up needed resources and free up troops that are badly needed elsewhere. How is it that the Japanese player is "doing so well" on the first day of the campaign? That doesn't make any sense.

Hirohito

I was commenting on it not being necessary. From a historical perspective, Russia would present no threat, at least not till after Stalingrad in 1943. As the Japanese, you simply have to take the DEI and PI, or knock the US out of the war by January 1943. If you divert everything to Russia, then Japan leaves itself open to a fairly quick Allied counterattack. Every hear the old saying don't jump the dences till you have to? If the war in Russia stalls (which is a possibility), then you won't have enough troops to hold that, hold off the United States, and still seize the resources that were the starting reason of the war in the first place. Just my .02.

[rendell]

From a game standpoint “Russia First” against a computer allied player might work, since I have a feeling the computer will still sit there and not take advantage of a weak Japanese player in the Pacific. But, historically it would have made no sense, for Japan to attack the U.S. and then turn and attack Russia, plus obviously Russia doesn’t end at the edge of the WitP map and like China has almost unlimited manpower backed by good equipment. If the game would allow an option to delay the U.S. entry into the war, then I could imagine a Japanese attack on Russia trying to capitalize on Germany’s early success in Russia as at least an historical possibility.

[tanker4145]

Whether it'd work or not Hirohito, I like your suggestions. You're one of the few people actually posting broad strategies on this board and it's good to see the discussion. I wish more people, including myself would post strategy ideas on the board.

[WhoCares]

I don't actually see that he has to neglect the whole SRA. He has still his complete Navy and the related troops (Naval Guard, S/NLF).
If I employed this plan, I would grap for Mindanao and from there and Formosa shut down any allied ops from Luzon. I could imagine to take Borneo, Sulawesi, Amboina, Sorong and maybe Java (with an additional Brigade, if needed at all). Palembang seems out of reach as long as Singapore is operational.
Of course, all resources and oil in the captured SRA would have to be routed via Palau/Marianas to the Homeland, as long as Singapore and Clark/Luzon is operational. Would create some nice hunting grounds for allied subs and maybe even surface raiders......

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: kaiser73

How much Oil and Resources you can get from Russia?

Anyway, i think you won't be able to take russia, china and india in less than 1 year. So you won't be able to take any SRA islands.

Timescale:
2 weeks to get Japan Divs (from China) in Position to attack USSR.
3-4 months to annhilate Russia
1 month to get Japan Divs from manchuko to China
3-4 Months to win in China (China got time to build fortresses to lvl 9 in any chokepoint)
1 Month to get Japan Divs in Burma/Malaya
1 Month to win in Burma/Malaya

So you are in October '42 (i think i have been optimistic in the tmeschedule) and you have China, Burma/Malaya and Russia. Allies have lost nothing other than China. In October, with 10 months of free preparation and USN now stronger, i can't see Japan taking anything else.
So basically your plan proposes to not take any SRA base to take Russia.

Maybe if you move your bulk army to India you can take it. But it will take ages (2 months to go to up through burma) since chinese and manchuko garrisons can't be transported and you won't have enough PP to change HQ to many Divs. But then you will have the same problem. Once you conquer all india you will have to move it back to actually defend from Allies. And it will take lot of time as well.
Result, to take India as you say in '43 you will need 1 year to win and move units back.

Summarizing weakpoints (IMO obviously):
1) You lose resources (Russia can't match SRA)
2) You give Allies a very advanced starting point in '43
3) As a player in PBEM, he can move all russians Divs to defend few cities, and so delaying you a lot delaying your timetable even more

I would use transports to move Imperial forces into India, with the China divisions and Kwantang army coming down from the north. I don't see how the Brits can hold out from this two pronged attack, one from the sea, one from the north and east. Did you actually add up all the resources you get from Russia? It seemed to me that this was superior to what you get from some of the allied controlled areas. I don't remember the numbers and I am out of town working on a project so I don't have access to the game right now to run the numbers, would someone be so kind as to give us the numbers for taking Russia controlled territory? How many of the following:
Resource Points
Heavy Industry
Oil Production
Manpower
Armaments
Vehicles
Naval
Merchant
Aircraft Manufacture

I don't think the totals were insignificant.

I am hoping that the Russian player moves his forces to a few cities, easier to starve them out that way. Forces cut off from supplies don't last long.

Is the allied player really so strong in '43 that they are unassailable anywhere? Aren't you leaving out a part of my plan? I would use the IJN to cut PI and DEI off from resupply, reinforcement. How would the allies build up these areas to a point that they cannot be successfully attacked with the entire IJN being used as a raiding force?

Hirohito

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Sounds like the Hitler syndrome, you are doing so well you have to find someone else to fight.

So you have no opinion on the actual merits or problems with the plan itself? I stated the reasons for taking this approach which are pick up needed resources and free up troops that are badly needed elsewhere. How is it that the Japanese player is "doing so well" on the first day of the campaign? That doesn't make any sense.

Hirohito

I was commenting on it not being necessary. From a historical perspective, Russia would present no threat, at least not till after Stalingrad in 1943. As the Japanese, you simply have to take the DEI and PI, or knock the US out of the war by January 1943. If you divert everything to Russia, then Japan leaves itself open to a fairly quick Allied counterattack. Every hear the old saying don't jump the dences till you have to? If the war in Russia stalls (which is a possibility), then you won't have enough troops to hold that, hold off the United States, and still seize the resources that were the starting reason of the war in the first place. Just my .02.

My premise was that I was going to use this strategy in order to 1) free up the Kwantang army for use in China in order to conquer China post haste, and 2) to capture all the resources, which are considerable in eastern russia. In my opinion, the early conquest of eastern russia and china is a stronger strategy than the early conquest of PI, DEI, Malaysia and Singapore. That is the discussion I want to have.

Hirohito

[String]

Maybe just remain defensive in china and use the excess forces from there to attack into russia? .. It could be enough ?

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: rendell

From a game standpoint “Russia First” against a computer allied player might work, since I have a feeling the computer will still sit there and not take advantage of a weak Japanese player in the Pacific. But, historically it would have made no sense, for Japan to attack the U.S. and then turn and attack Russia, plus obviously Russia doesn’t end at the edge of the WitP map and like China has almost unlimited manpower backed by good equipment. If the game would allow an option to delay the U.S. entry into the war, then I could imagine a Japanese attack on Russia trying to capitalize on Germany’s early success in Russia as at least an historical possibility.

I dont' play the computer, I only play other players. Actually, EVERYONE thought that Japan would attack Russia simultaneously with attacking the US. The Germans were certainly surprised that they didn't. The reason that Japan did not attack Russia in '41 is easy to understand, the Japanese army had taken a pounding by Zhukov in an undeclared war in Mongolia in the '30s, Zhukov used blitzkreig tactics and annihilated two Japanese armies. The Japanese generals wanted to have NOTHING to do with Zhukov again. That is why the separate peace was made with Russia, stabbing GErmany in the back. However, the armored and artillery forces that Zhukov had used in that campaign were being blown to pieces in western Russia so they would not have been a factor and the Japanese army actually faced weak rifle armies. But, of course, they could not have known that.

You are leaving out an important fact, in December of '41 the Germans were knocking on the gates of Moscow, it was the transfer of large forces from Siberia to Moscow and the counter offensive that was launched in mid december that turned the tide and saved Moscow. So, if Japan attacks Russia in '41 either the Siberian forces do not go west, or if they do they can't come back and Japan either has a free hand in Siberia or Germany takes Moscow. Either way the Russians are in a bad way. The idea that Russia could commit large forces to retake Siberia anytime before '44 is implausable at best. With the loss of Siberia, the Russians would have been hard pressed to hold off the Germans. Add up all the resources that are lost to the russians if Japan takes easternmost russia, I don't see how they would be in a position to counter attack Japan anytime before mid '44, if they were even still in the war.

Hirohito

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: String

Maybe just remain defensive in china and use the excess forces from there to attack into russia? .. It could be enough ?

This was my thought. Abandon central pacific. Shift the 12 divisions that historically conquered PI, DEI, Malaysia, and Singapore to northeast Korea, go on the defensive in China, send independent brigades, regiments,and battalions to the coastal chinese cities to free up the garrison divisions and redeploy them in Manchuko or as defensive perimeter in greater China. According to game testing against other players this is more than enough to conquer Russia.

An interesting thing. Most of these moves can be made totally invisible to the allied player. It takes several turns to get all the troops into position, so turn after turn from the allied perspective "nothing happens". Then, surprise, surprise, Russia is hit by three large armies and large air forces. The russian army is sliced into three manageable pieces and they are destroyed piecemeal.

Taking Russia isn't the problem, that is doable. the real question is "is taking russia worth the effort"? I think it is as it frees up the Kwantang army and adds not insignificant resources to the Empire.

Hirohito

[Hirohito]

Hi Everyone,
I'm out of town and don't have access to my WITP game. Would someone add up the resources that are captured by the Japanese player if the Russia first strategy goes well, assuming that the japanese player captures all the Russian bases on the map? give us the totals for:
Resources
Heavy Industry
Oil Production
Manpower
Armaments
Vehicles
Aircraft Production
Engine Production
Naval Production
Merchant Marine Production

This way we can discuss the merits of taking out Russia first from the actual numbers instead of from guessing. I ran these numbers before but I don't have access to the spreadsheet and I can't remember what they were.

Thanks,
Hirohito

[2ndACR]

Your plan has its merits, but against a human I do not think it is doable. There is no way a human is going to sit still and allow you move very many Chinese divisions with out going on the offensive.

I know what I would if faced with your strategy. B17's would be bombing Japan proper from day 1. The Marianas would be mine. The PI would be dang near impossible for you to take away from me after you use those divisions.

I would sweep down from Burma and batter any weak garrisons you left behind and take Indo China away from you.

Again, against a human, I do not see this as workable.

[moses]

I'm guessing that you need 2 and probably 3 divisions in Malaya and a third to a half of china command to hold off a counteroffensive in these areas. The question then is how long can russia hold against the remaining force.

Given 4 months I think the allies might take all of Malaysia against three division equivalents. Once Russia is triggered the allies should send everything possible to Malaysia. Chinese forces should mass at a few locations and engage in attrition battles against the JP, building experience, depleting the JP forces and burning JP supply.