Senkou! strategy (realistic and BEING USED - 2 AARs)

[sveint]

THIS THREAD IS OFF LIMITS FOR MY PBEM OPPONENTS

Please; everyone else refrain from discussing details of my strategy in other threads.

I'm giving this strategy a live test in this AAR: tm.asp?m=743980

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The SENKOU! strategy

I have always been a fan of World War 2 strategy. No other war or conflict spanned as much area or has as much influence on history. Our very lives today are directly dependent on the results of WW2. In my view, the world came very close to disaster.

From playing many games (AETO, ETO, PTO are the most realistic board games) and reading too many books I've established the view that the war turned on one country - Russia. Had Russia fallen the Allies could never have won, atomic bombs or not. Of course, despite how close the Wermacht got to Moskba, Russia never came close to surrender. What could have turned the tide? A coordinated strike by Japan, most likely in Spring 1942.

Senkou is my attempt at outright winning WITP. In my other PBEM games I go for a more historical, hold-out-as-long-as-I-can approach. The general approach is thus:

1. Early capture of Java, while the Phillipines is reduced and Malaya assaulted overland
2. A concentrated attack on Sian in China, and the early capture of Chungking and Chengtu
3. Contingent on success in China, a major assault on Far East Russia
4. Contingent on all of all of the above, the combined China/Kwantung armies descend on India to win the war

The details can be found here: http://www.svein.org/senkou/index.shtml

Again, I am trying this strategy out seriously in an AAR. We'll see how it works out. The one thing I do need is surprise, if the Allies get a hint of the plan it will most likely fail (counter-offensives in China, fortifications in Russia, Allied force deployments).

Comments welcome.

[Honda]

Well, how's about good luck?
You'll need it. Of course I doubt not you will do a good job it's just the whole adventure seems - well - hard. USSR is a though nut to crack and with Java+Siberia you would satisfy the production needs. However, you would have to keep it a surprise as long as possible so a couple of "standard landings" would be a good idea just to keep the enemy of the course. I know its pointless to give you some grand strategy hints here 'cause you already got a grand strategy so I'll just say I'm looking forward to seeing how Japs handle the sleeping bear.
Good hunting.

[sveint]

Thanks Honda.

Please remember the attack on Russia is contingent on victory in China (in itself not easy to pull off).

The gamble is thus: That the Chinese stay on the defensive - which is a strategic error on their part, but it also seems to be what most do. My defensive screens will be very weak and the attack very strong. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. My guess is that it all depends on the opponent.

[Hirohito]

ORIGINAL: Honda

Well, how's about good luck?
You'll need it. Of course I doubt not you will do a good job it's just the whole adventure seems - well - hard. USSR is a though nut to crack and with Java+Siberia you would satisfy the production needs. However, you would have to keep it a surprise as long as possible so a couple of "standard landings" would be a good idea just to keep the enemy of the course. I know its pointless to give you some grand strategy hints here 'cause you already got a grand strategy so I'll just say I'm looking forward to seeing how Japs handle the sleeping bear.
Good hunting.

Russia is not a tough nut to crack. Hit them first and hit them with everything you've got. Use the entire Kwantang army. Use the 12 divisions that were going to hit PI, DEI, Malaya and Singapore. Abandon the central pacific. Send the independent regiments, brigades,and battalions to garrison the chinese coastal cities and free up the divisions there. Use your political points to switch units from the japanese home defense force to the Kwantang army or the china army. When you hit the Russians first isolate their army into three groups that are incapable of supporting each other and are all cut off from supplies. Send in as many air units as you can spare from keeping them busy in PI, DEI, Malaya and Singapore and obliterate the Russian air force. Mass your troops and fight the russian units this way: first cut them off from supplies, reinforcement, and replenishment, then bring up vastly superior forces, then fight a battle of encirclement. Try to separate units from nearby bases so that they won't get the benefit of the fortification, headquarters units and/or engineers. The Russians will crumble. Now move your forces into china and fight them the same way. Cut them off from supplies, bring up vastly superior forces and fight a battle of encirlement. China will fall. After that you have a lot of choices to make.

At first only improve Heavy Industry and vehicle, armaments, aircraft production, naval and merchant that have a value of 0. These updates don't cost very much. Then only improve Heavy Industry. After the cost to improve Heavy Industry starts becoming prohibitive, improve armaments, vehicles, and naval. For aircraft production stop working on the r&d aircraft and focus totally on aircraft that are effective against ships. Improve all aircraft production for aircraft types that are effective against ships.

After China has fallen keep the Imperial forces in one large mass and pick targets that you can completely overwhelm after you have cut off their supplies. PI, DEI, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and India should fall if you stick to this overwhelming mass approach. India can be invaded from the north by the china army and the kwantang army.

Use your political points to free up units from the home islands. Usually this will be air units, armor units, engineer and hq units.

After this the US and Australia will invade and you will be toast. LOL.

Hirohito

[pauk]

yep, sounds reasonable, but withdrawing units (bde's, regiment's) from DEI, Burma and assigning them to the China will allowed (limited) allied offensive in the DEI (from Australia), especially if your opponent withdraws Aussies from Singapure (he surely will do it and he will have enough time)

But, i like very much sveint idea, it is original for sure. I have only two things to said: good luck, crush the russians and banzai[;)]

[Honda]

I agree. It's possible. I checked what Russians have available at the start and it's not as much as I had expected. The whole opration could start with KBs refit after PH. With some landings on the inticingly nice looking trail leading from Pacific into Siberian mainland the encirclement isn't a possibility but a must for a Jap player. Air superiority also seems probable as you would have the 1st strike. Surprise is, most of all, paramount. Most people just leave USSR as it is and don't expect anything there. That's what the Jap must ensure. To find Russian airforce nicely cuddled up in few locations instead of scattered all around the tundra. This surprise is very likely to fail against anyone acive on the forum. The last few threads have shown the likelyhood of sucesful anti-USSR operatons as high enough for Allied players to watch out for the tell-tale signs of impending offensive. The commitment to such operation would require high commitment on the part of the Jap and leave many possibilities for the USN to go on an early offensive or even stage a relief operation via NorPac. That on the other hand could turn out as very handy for the Jap when the time comes...After all, is all about VPs and to force a major engagement on the Pacific as soon as possible can only benefit the Jap - no matter the outcome.

[sveint]

Just to clarify:

I intend to CONQUER China before attacking Russia.

I have always believed that the war is decided in China. I still believe so. Allied players that try the "he who defends everything, defends nothing" strategy in China or simply treats it as a secondary front is in for trouble.

[sveint]

withdrawing units (bde's, regiment's) from DEI, Burma and assigning them to the China will allowed (limited) allied offensive in the DEI (from Australia),

My plan draws mostly on units from China.

[Mark VII]

Yes, in my pbem game just started I will be driving for Changsha, Yenen etc. right off the starting gun just like everyone else.

But is this realistic? There seems to be something wrong here. Historically the Japanese did nothing(or very little) in China for the first year except execute civilians after the Doolitle raid. If these closer cities were so easy to capture why did the IJA just sit on their butts?

I wonder if the China Army has been made to strong, if there is to much supply in country or something else?

[sveint]

The reason Japan didn't try to push further was mostly political - they had the areas of China they wanted. Once they decided that a military solution was needed it was too late - but they still managed to push the Chinese back and almost overrun them. Of course by this time the US was invading the Phillipines.

Oh, and China is more than capable of fighting back. See for example my AAR against Mogami - in the end I lost but it was a very close fight and he had to bring in the entire army from the Phillipines. To me the problem lies more with how China is played, once people learn how to use them things will look different. Hmm, maybe a strategy guide for China is needed?

[derwho]

I'm currently annihilating my PBEM opponent in China. We are in Feb '42. I've captured Kungchang and Homan in the Northern area of operations. In the Southern area I'm holding the line Chingsha, Hengchow, Wuchow. I'm also just in the progress of linking the Southern railroad between China and the more western part of my empire.

Basically I'm holding all the bases in China accessible by railroad. Currently I'm resting my forces and trying to deal with a serious supply problem. I haven't taken any forces from my Manchuko garrison besides air units.

I'd be interested in hearing some comments on how to deal with the situation hereforth.

[Honda]

I think it may be prudent to take out the bear before he gats too strong. And China might prove as a tough nut to crack. Maybe just cutting China in half will do, with the Kwantung army then eliminating the Northern pocket? That way you show some offensive intentions without revealing the ultimate purpose and get a significant VP boost after eliminating the encircled Chinese troops.
My 2cents...

[pfnognoff]

All in all, a very intriguing and original plan. Good work! I especially like the idea of walking into Singapore and landing in Borneo.

I would ask/suggest a few things.

1. Isn't a direct strike against Ichang a quicker way to get to the heart of China? After Ichang falls there is just open country between you and Chungking.

2. Why would you go "China to Russia" and not "China to India" instead? I mean India should fall even without the whole Kwantung Area Army deployed there. And the quicker you take India less GB naval reinforcements would come into play. No? Plus, I think that India would be harder to support by US navy/army, then Far East Russia. If you go against Russia, I would as allies sail right there quickly trying to reinforce with the nice US divisions I have surplus of.

And finally off course, good luck to you in your games!

[sveint]

1. Isn't a direct strike against Ichang a quicker way to get to the heart of China? After Ichang falls there is just open country between you and Chungking.

True. But taking Sian splits the Chinese forces - that last thing I want is for them to concentrate.

2. Why would you go "China to Russia" and not "China to India" instead?

Resources. Proximity. Surprise. Marching to India takes forever.

[pfnognoff]

But if you go for Homan they will concentrate in Sian for sure. What if you get stuck at Homan and Sian builds up?

[freeboy]

I may suggest you forgo the March to India thought? OK, crush the chinees, attack Russianss, But invade India, actually pretty easy in early 42 if you use alot of bb ca and troops supported by cvs it is definately a winner, The Aliied player has some terrible chioces..
Defend or not Ceylon. if he puts troops there they are not avail elsewhere and still can be isolated and crushed. counter attack with the us cv in Indian ocean? good luck! plead with British hq for more troops? unlikely. By MArch 1 I plan on destroying a vast amount of troopsin China and taking the center and Northern Bases, taking most SRA, and Invading India while limiting my assualts in Burma to holding actions, taking Rangoon/ and advancing into but not through Burma as it does , as noted above take forever! This strategy will be inflicted on Ron the Great in or soon to be begun campaign,m waiting on Lemeurs update.. poor Ron does he even stand a chance? lol

[sveint]

poor Ron does he even stand a chance?

Well all us Japanese players have to be careful. It's easy to be optimistic in 1942. All of us need a plan B for when things go wrong... better not lose too many divisions in India or the US may come take back the Phillipines earlier than you'd like.

Personally I don't intend to risk my Southern Army divisons - if they are lost, Japan loses in 1943.

[freeboy]

any thoughts on invasion rather than marching into India?

[kaiser73]

I have seen your plan and i was thinking myself something similar. However i have some questions/doubts about it.

1) Philippines
As i understood your plan is to invade it with enough force to conquer the resource centers, then reduce the Army size to the point to just be able to hold what you conquered and starve them. is that right?
If this is true, i have 2 questions:
How many assault points you think you need for that (keeping what you conquer and starve them)? Allies have 1300 AP in Phi in mainland. Since you have to attack both North (Lagaspi) and South, i think you need at least 400 AP in North and 400 AP in south to be sure Allies can't simply attack one of the 2 groups.
How many assult points you think you need to conquer Clark field? Allies can move 800 AP to defend Clark and 500 for defending Manila. So what you think you need?

2) Malaya
Well, your plan is using overwhelming force to fastly conquer it. and surely it will work. Not much Allies can do.

3) Java
If i understood correctly, you plan to invade NW Borneo with the Divs you don't use in Philippines and then from there attacking Java. is that right?
My questions:
The attack on Java occurs regardless of conquering Singapore and Palembang? or you attack Java once you have Singapore and Palembang?
isn't it costly to attack Java without securing Kendari, South Borneo and Malaya? Allies will harass your navy and you don't have many bases to support Java invasion.

4) China
If i understood correctly, you plan to win in China without using any "external" divs and only with Divs you have in China. isn't this optimistic? Personally, in the PBEM i played, i have been able to go well in CHina only if Chinese player go on offensive and let himself be trapped. If Chinese Player simply withdraw and fortify himself in few locations, i can't see how you can win in China.

5) Russia
I don't understand what Divs you wonna use. the ones you used for Java, Malaya and Borneo right?
I don't know how strong the Russians are, but i believe what you say. you can prolly win in russia once you won in china. My doubt is what i wrote before: i am not sure you can win in china against a good allied player (a good plan hasn't to rely to Allied mistakes) without using part of other units.

In general what is your timetable?

Suggestion:
in your plan you don't mention south pac (n. guinea and solomon) and Mindanao. why? with the units you have in Palau and Truk you can secure Kendari, amboina and mindanao without affecting your other attacks.
For S. Guinea and solomons, i guess you have no intention to invade them. and prolly you are right, they are of no use if your strategy works. you will have enough VP for auto victory.

In general, my last question: why rushing so much at start?
Russians can't reinforce themselves, so you can attack them when you want and feel ready. Once you win in China, no way they can defend themselves. if you have no plan for south pacific as it seems from your strategy, why rushing for Java? to me it seems the only action which could delay you is in china. so why not using the units from malaya to conquer palembang and java and use the units you free up from Philippines to fight in china?
Your plan works if you totally win in China. So put there you best effort.

[sveint]

kaiser73,

Thanks for you comments. My plans are pre-war, they will of course be adapted to what happens during the war.

1) Philippines

Intend to conquer ASAP to free up the forces there. I add the divisions from Hong Kong/Japan here.

3) Java

About 2 divisions and 2 brigades plus engineers etc go for Java as soon as possible. Intend to land in Java at the latest on Dec 24.

4) China
isn't this optimistic?

Extremely optimistic. It will all depend on the Chinese player. However it seems alot of Allied players prefer the naval combat and don't give China as much thought as they should. In the end you are right, a very competent Chinese player will not be conquered. But add in some typical mistakes: trying to defend everything, sending troops to Burma, and I have a good shot at it. Also, the Chinese player will probably not expect a direct thrust to his interior. Furthermore, he certainly won't expect the strength of my thrust (my holding forces are VERY weak).

My gamle is that the Chinese player will NOT go on the offensive (only AAR I've seen where they do is my own). We'll have to see how it turns out in the AARs. This is the critical point in my plan. Of course, I intend to keep my opponent focused on DEI, India and the Pacific - my early thrusts there should worry them.

5) Russia
I don't understand what Divs you wonna use. the ones you used for Java, Malaya and Borneo right?

Not really. These divisions are necessary against the Allies. I intend to use troops from China plus maybe 6 divisions in a landing at Vladivostok (depends on how much I can free up from China).

in your plan you don't mention south pac (n. guinea and solomon) and Mindanao. why?

Minor theathres, I will be taking them but don't bother to mention it.

For S. Guinea and solomons, i guess you have no intention to invade them

I will take and hold New Britian and the Solomons. At the very least Rabaul.

In general, my last question: why rushing so much at start?

1. Keep the Allied attention off China
2. Java can be a tough nut unless you take it fast
3. Once Java and the Phillipines are mine I can free up forces for other offensives/defensives; etc

use the units you free up from Philippines to fight in china?

This may very well be necessary. We'll see. If they are necessary, my inital strike in China failed, and it'll be a long and bloody fight.