Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
Why thank you, it's always nice to be appreciated. However I must confess I ultimately do it for my own sake - I feel it makes me understand the game better. Of couse, like any statistical material, it can't stand alone.
Where's the Any key?
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
The Air War:
Allied aircraft types lost:
Fighters and Fighter-bombers:
211 F4F-4 Wildcat
132 P-40E Warhawk
79 P-39D Airacobra
62 P-38G
21 Wirraway
20 Beaufort Mk VIC
18 F4F-3 Wildcat
= 543 (45.5%)
Level bombers:
74 B-17E Fortress
42 B-25D Mitchell
40 B-26B Marauder
34 A-20B Havoc
31 B-24D Liberator
28 Beaufort
22 Hudson
= 271 (22.7%)
Dive- and Torpedo bombers:
168 SBD Dauntless
35 TBF Avenger
= 193 (16.2%)
Recon planes:
21 F5-A Lightning
= 21 (1.8%)
Patrol- and Float planes:
52 PBY Catalina
18 SOC-3 Seagull
2 OS2U-3 Kingfisher
= 72 (6.0%)
Transports:
85 C-47 Dakota
= 85 (7.1%)
Japanese Aircraft types lost:
Fighters and Float-fighters:
223 A6M2 Zero
132 A6M3 Zero
71 Ki-43-Ib Oscar
12 A6M2-N Rufe
7 Ki-43-IIa Oscar
= 445 (55.4%)
Level bombers:
68 G4M1 Betty
53 G3M Nell
= 121 (15.1%)
Dive- and Torpedo-bombers:
50 B5N Kate
49 D3A Val
= 99 (12.3%)
Recon planes:
27 J1N1-R Irving
1 Ki-46 Dinah
= 28 (3.5%)
Patrol- and Float planes:
37 E13A1 Jake
25 H8K Emily
19 F1M2 Pete
9 H6K Mavis
5 E7K2 Alf
= 95 (11.8%)
Tranport planes:
15 Ki-57-I Topsy
= 15 (1.9%)
Allied aircraft types lost:
Fighters and Fighter-bombers:
211 F4F-4 Wildcat
132 P-40E Warhawk
79 P-39D Airacobra
62 P-38G
21 Wirraway
20 Beaufort Mk VIC
18 F4F-3 Wildcat
= 543 (45.5%)
Level bombers:
74 B-17E Fortress
42 B-25D Mitchell
40 B-26B Marauder
34 A-20B Havoc
31 B-24D Liberator
28 Beaufort
22 Hudson
= 271 (22.7%)
Dive- and Torpedo bombers:
168 SBD Dauntless
35 TBF Avenger
= 193 (16.2%)
Recon planes:
21 F5-A Lightning
= 21 (1.8%)
Patrol- and Float planes:
52 PBY Catalina
18 SOC-3 Seagull
2 OS2U-3 Kingfisher
= 72 (6.0%)
Transports:
85 C-47 Dakota
= 85 (7.1%)
Japanese Aircraft types lost:
Fighters and Float-fighters:
223 A6M2 Zero
132 A6M3 Zero
71 Ki-43-Ib Oscar
12 A6M2-N Rufe
7 Ki-43-IIa Oscar
= 445 (55.4%)
Level bombers:
68 G4M1 Betty
53 G3M Nell
= 121 (15.1%)
Dive- and Torpedo-bombers:
50 B5N Kate
49 D3A Val
= 99 (12.3%)
Recon planes:
27 J1N1-R Irving
1 Ki-46 Dinah
= 28 (3.5%)
Patrol- and Float planes:
37 E13A1 Jake
25 H8K Emily
19 F1M2 Pete
9 H6K Mavis
5 E7K2 Alf
= 95 (11.8%)
Tranport planes:
15 Ki-57-I Topsy
= 15 (1.9%)
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Where's the Any key?
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
First of all, I’d like to comment my opponent, who, I believe, played an excellent game, capitalising on his strengths to succesfully invade and capture Lunga, while minimising his weaknesses on New Guinea in the face of overwhelming Allied airpower. I don’t think that you can ask for much more of any commander. It might be argued that a more offensive stance should have been taken after the fall of Lunga, but, strategically, it could equally be argued that the merits would not justify the risks involved.
As for my self, well, you can’t argue with success. I do believe my basic plan was sound, however badly the execution fell short. The basic problem was that I fatally miscalculated the amount of force available to my opponent. Only by the time of the invasion of Lunga did I realise that I was up against virtually the entire Japanese navy, at what point it was too late. Later on I also miscalculated the number of ground formations available to my opponent. I was unaware that the 51st and later the 20th Infantry Divisions would arrive on the battlefield. These extra formations were instrumental, one way or the other, in tipping the scales at Lunga and blocking my thrusts on New Guinea. Overall, this failure lead directly to the ad-hoc nature of my two most important operations in the game, the reinforcement of Lunga and the grab for Lae.
This scenario revolves around Lunga: Avoid defeat here, and everything else will spring from it. Possibly. The Japanese player is under no obligation to attack Lunga, and you at the very least have to plan under this assumption. Lunga, however, while the most conservative option, is also the surest. Gili Gili and Luganville, while realistic options, offers equal or less reward at higher risk. However, until the Japanese player has commited, stripping your rear areas of reserves will be at best a gamble.
The big headache about Lunga is the combination of the Japanese surface preponderance and the proximity of Shortland Island. Because TF’s can warp down from Shortland in a turn, you have no way of knowing whether your FT TF’s will be intercepted or not. Using transports can only be described as suicidal. At Gili Gili you at least usually get a turn’s warning. IJN battleship preponderance means that if you are intercepted, you must expect to loose. The low Allied night surface XP at start doesn’t help either. This is what refrained me from commiting surface elements at Lunga – and I honestly expected that the Allied reinforcements arriving on D+19 would allow me to fight on something like an equal footing.
The other way of reinforcing Lunga is by C-47. Moving the TCS’ over from SWPAC will obviously delay deployment there, but moving troops about in the SWPAC area by boat is reasonably safe. You must be prepared that the Japanese player will LR-CAP Lunga. C-47’s, however, can be pushed through if you’re willing to pay the price, and there’ll be a period of grace in the beginning of the scenario before bases are built or expanded in the central Solomons, thus making LR-CAP impossible or or at least difficult. This of course presupposes that you’ve taken a deep breath and is banking on your opponent not being adventurous. You might want to move one of the SWPAC ID's over to Noumea as a safeguard, although you don't actually have enough shipping at start to move several divisions about plus reposition base forces and do resupply runs.
1.FT the 54th CD Bn. to Lunga. If you want to move the entire unit (you do!), it will require 24 ships – one pr. gun. A surface escort will have to be provided, and there’s every chance that you’ll collide with a bombardment run. However getting the CD Bn. to Lunga is probably the one unit it’s worth taking this risk over. Mine the place while you’re at it. Operating PT’s at Lunga is problematic, as you’ll soon be out of fuel. Hence station them at Tulagi and make sure that you also push in enough fuel on this one early FT run.
2.Built up Irau. The faster the better. Irau MUST be a lvl 2 airfield by D+21, with enough supply and av.support to sustain prolonged operations. Also move up the III.Amph. Corps – it will provide a 10% to troops fighting at Lunga.
3.Take and hold Taivu as early as possible, probably with the 1st Marine Raider Bn.
4.Don’t station any sizable air units at Lunga. Anything you station there will be blown to bits. Hence make a token commitment (use the one VMF equipped with F4F-3’s + 1 SBD). Preserve the Marine sqd’s for the big battle.
5.Bomb Shortland port. Then bomb it again. Then bomb it some more. Operate your B-17’s out of Gili Gili (normal range, but exposed and thus also difficult to supply) or Port Moresby. The objective is to destroy as much fuel at Shortland as possible. Damaging the port won’t hurt either. Damage itself will help to retard the development of the airfield there, which all things equal will lessen air pressure on Lunga, and not least his ability to LR-CAP Lunga. Off- and on-loading will take longer and thus buy time. However the goal is to retard naval operations out of Shortland. This is probably the single most important move you can make in defending Lunga. It will wreck your heavy bomber force, but it’s worth it. It will provoke a counter-air offensive. Welcome it, and throw everything you have at it. You’ll lose large numbers of aircraft, but so will he. This is the best contributing SWPAC air can make to the defense of Lunga.
6.Use your subs aggresively around the Slot. But don’t expect too much...
(more to follow)
As for my self, well, you can’t argue with success. I do believe my basic plan was sound, however badly the execution fell short. The basic problem was that I fatally miscalculated the amount of force available to my opponent. Only by the time of the invasion of Lunga did I realise that I was up against virtually the entire Japanese navy, at what point it was too late. Later on I also miscalculated the number of ground formations available to my opponent. I was unaware that the 51st and later the 20th Infantry Divisions would arrive on the battlefield. These extra formations were instrumental, one way or the other, in tipping the scales at Lunga and blocking my thrusts on New Guinea. Overall, this failure lead directly to the ad-hoc nature of my two most important operations in the game, the reinforcement of Lunga and the grab for Lae.
This scenario revolves around Lunga: Avoid defeat here, and everything else will spring from it. Possibly. The Japanese player is under no obligation to attack Lunga, and you at the very least have to plan under this assumption. Lunga, however, while the most conservative option, is also the surest. Gili Gili and Luganville, while realistic options, offers equal or less reward at higher risk. However, until the Japanese player has commited, stripping your rear areas of reserves will be at best a gamble.
The big headache about Lunga is the combination of the Japanese surface preponderance and the proximity of Shortland Island. Because TF’s can warp down from Shortland in a turn, you have no way of knowing whether your FT TF’s will be intercepted or not. Using transports can only be described as suicidal. At Gili Gili you at least usually get a turn’s warning. IJN battleship preponderance means that if you are intercepted, you must expect to loose. The low Allied night surface XP at start doesn’t help either. This is what refrained me from commiting surface elements at Lunga – and I honestly expected that the Allied reinforcements arriving on D+19 would allow me to fight on something like an equal footing.
The other way of reinforcing Lunga is by C-47. Moving the TCS’ over from SWPAC will obviously delay deployment there, but moving troops about in the SWPAC area by boat is reasonably safe. You must be prepared that the Japanese player will LR-CAP Lunga. C-47’s, however, can be pushed through if you’re willing to pay the price, and there’ll be a period of grace in the beginning of the scenario before bases are built or expanded in the central Solomons, thus making LR-CAP impossible or or at least difficult. This of course presupposes that you’ve taken a deep breath and is banking on your opponent not being adventurous. You might want to move one of the SWPAC ID's over to Noumea as a safeguard, although you don't actually have enough shipping at start to move several divisions about plus reposition base forces and do resupply runs.
1.FT the 54th CD Bn. to Lunga. If you want to move the entire unit (you do!), it will require 24 ships – one pr. gun. A surface escort will have to be provided, and there’s every chance that you’ll collide with a bombardment run. However getting the CD Bn. to Lunga is probably the one unit it’s worth taking this risk over. Mine the place while you’re at it. Operating PT’s at Lunga is problematic, as you’ll soon be out of fuel. Hence station them at Tulagi and make sure that you also push in enough fuel on this one early FT run.
2.Built up Irau. The faster the better. Irau MUST be a lvl 2 airfield by D+21, with enough supply and av.support to sustain prolonged operations. Also move up the III.Amph. Corps – it will provide a 10% to troops fighting at Lunga.
3.Take and hold Taivu as early as possible, probably with the 1st Marine Raider Bn.
4.Don’t station any sizable air units at Lunga. Anything you station there will be blown to bits. Hence make a token commitment (use the one VMF equipped with F4F-3’s + 1 SBD). Preserve the Marine sqd’s for the big battle.
5.Bomb Shortland port. Then bomb it again. Then bomb it some more. Operate your B-17’s out of Gili Gili (normal range, but exposed and thus also difficult to supply) or Port Moresby. The objective is to destroy as much fuel at Shortland as possible. Damaging the port won’t hurt either. Damage itself will help to retard the development of the airfield there, which all things equal will lessen air pressure on Lunga, and not least his ability to LR-CAP Lunga. Off- and on-loading will take longer and thus buy time. However the goal is to retard naval operations out of Shortland. This is probably the single most important move you can make in defending Lunga. It will wreck your heavy bomber force, but it’s worth it. It will provoke a counter-air offensive. Welcome it, and throw everything you have at it. You’ll lose large numbers of aircraft, but so will he. This is the best contributing SWPAC air can make to the defense of Lunga.
6.Use your subs aggresively around the Slot. But don’t expect too much...
(more to follow)
Where's the Any key?
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
That said, I think the only real chance of holding on to Lunga is by attacking the Lunga invasion force, when it appears, with anything you've got. A competent Japanese player will of course defend his invasion with everything he's got, which means that you've got to fight you way through 100's of Zero's and half a dozen BB's to get at the transports. Strikes at his bases in the central Solomons should cut down on LR-CAP somewhat, and Irau should allow you to fight the KB on more even terms. But this is far from a sure thing, and an aggresive opponent should be able to make life on Irau far from pleasent. KB doesn't have to come forward, and, as Toraq did at Tulagi, can opt to hang back and provide CAP. At Tulagi my airpower failed to interfere with the invasion in any appreciable way, and suffered heavily for their pains. However, if Lunga if successfully invaded, I doubt there is any way it can be held. A IJN rgt. has almost twice the combat power of an American rgt., and the Japanese player can reinforce Lunga MUCH easier than can the Allied Player. I defended Lunga with about 80% of the available SOPAC forces and was crushed easily.
In fact, a case could be made that Lunga should be abandoned altogether. What my above VP analysis strongly suggests is that the real loss at Lunga wasn't the base itself, but the associated losses incurred while defending it. I would guess that 80% of my air- and ground losses, and 95% of my naval losses were incurred at or around Lunga. Many of these had nothing to do with Lunga per se, of course, but if I hadn't defended Lunga, I wouldn't have lost another 4 rgt's, I wouldn't have had to fight KB on unfavourable terms, leading to the loss of the Hornet without any sinkings in return, I wouldn't have had to run my C-47, B-26, and B-17 sqd's into the ground, I wouldn't have had to run a series of haphazard TF FT operations with whatever ships I had available and usually without surface cover, which, amongst others, lead directly to Irau disaster. Not defending Lunga would probably have saved me 700-800? VP. Of course Toraq would've had more forces to readily deploy elsewhere, but Lunga is by far the least defendable of your bases. Even Irau is much more easily defended.
(more to follow)
In fact, a case could be made that Lunga should be abandoned altogether. What my above VP analysis strongly suggests is that the real loss at Lunga wasn't the base itself, but the associated losses incurred while defending it. I would guess that 80% of my air- and ground losses, and 95% of my naval losses were incurred at or around Lunga. Many of these had nothing to do with Lunga per se, of course, but if I hadn't defended Lunga, I wouldn't have lost another 4 rgt's, I wouldn't have had to fight KB on unfavourable terms, leading to the loss of the Hornet without any sinkings in return, I wouldn't have had to run my C-47, B-26, and B-17 sqd's into the ground, I wouldn't have had to run a series of haphazard TF FT operations with whatever ships I had available and usually without surface cover, which, amongst others, lead directly to Irau disaster. Not defending Lunga would probably have saved me 700-800? VP. Of course Toraq would've had more forces to readily deploy elsewhere, but Lunga is by far the least defendable of your bases. Even Irau is much more easily defended.
(more to follow)
Where's the Any key?
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
Over on New Guinea, the first question is one of priorities: Most of your forces needed for offensive action are at Brisbane. Port Moresby and Gili Gili needs additional support, supply and HQ units to maximise effeciancy. So you need to shift all these to whereever you want them, but at the same time most of your resources will be tied down preparing the defense of SOPAC. Fx, an obvious early move would be to grab Salamaua, barely defended at start, either as a diversion or as the first step on the road to Lae. But if your C-47's are off flying troops to Lunga, well, it'll delay the operation by a week at least, and that's providing that you're willing to fly your C-47's regardless of fatigue. Then you'll need another week to march to Salamaua etc. Similarly, FT'ing around the Gulf of Huon, dangerous at best, isn't an option as long as you have to support SOPAC operations.
Another problem on New Guinea is that strategic surprise is impossible against an alert opponent, as your troops have to walk everywhere. Even if your operating out of an adjacent base, it'll take 6-7 days to cover the distance. It's almost three weeks from Port Moresby to Buna. In our game, Toraq reinforced the 8th Area Army with 6 rgt's and still had enough headroom to invade Tulagi with another 3 rgt's. Thus some sort of strategic diversion is necesary to draw off enemy units, unless you can get the operations up and going before the invasion of Lunga. Buna is not suited for such a diversion, as your opponent will see your forces coming a looong time, and you can't spare the forces necesary to project a viable threat on Buna. That pretty much dooms you make the Lae operation the diversion and the Buna operations your main thrust. Having only one thrust will allow your opponent to feed all his available reinforcements into the chosen battle area, and again, he can do so much easier than you.
I'm not an advocate of a FT thrust against Finschafen. Easy to take - providing the FT mission doesn't end in disaster - but difficult to hold. You'll have to operate LBA out of there if there's to be any point in taking it at all, so that's a nice little supply headache right there. This can be done in 1943, when Allied air reigns supreme. In 1942, you're setting yourself up for disaster. Your opponent can FT LCU's in with impunity, and as seen, he will have forces to spare.
Don't expect your air power to be able to interdict shipping to New Guinea. Mine failed miserably. However, it might be an idea to dedicate a few sqd's specifically to this task. B-25's & Beaufighters out of Port Moresby, B-26's and Beauforts out of Gili Gili. The trick is maximuse the area covered while avoiding putting anti-shipping aircraft within strike range of Rabaul and Shortland, which would otherwise wear your sqd's down very fast. Rotate the sqd's at first to allow them to built up XP bombing Buna & Lae. Also make sure to bomb Wewak on and off (with Hudsons, fx) to retard development here, and/or tie down enemy forces.
All in all, this in fact reinforces the argument that Lunga should not be attempted reinforced in a major way. Your best chance at stealing a march on your opponent on New Guinea is at the very beginning, against Lae that is. However, this can obviously only be done if you retain your resources in SWPAC. Once the battle for Lunga starts rolling, while it lasts, he'll have fewer - far fewer - resources to support operations on New Guinea. Appreciable gains here will help counter-balance the loss of Lunga.
Another problem on New Guinea is that strategic surprise is impossible against an alert opponent, as your troops have to walk everywhere. Even if your operating out of an adjacent base, it'll take 6-7 days to cover the distance. It's almost three weeks from Port Moresby to Buna. In our game, Toraq reinforced the 8th Area Army with 6 rgt's and still had enough headroom to invade Tulagi with another 3 rgt's. Thus some sort of strategic diversion is necesary to draw off enemy units, unless you can get the operations up and going before the invasion of Lunga. Buna is not suited for such a diversion, as your opponent will see your forces coming a looong time, and you can't spare the forces necesary to project a viable threat on Buna. That pretty much dooms you make the Lae operation the diversion and the Buna operations your main thrust. Having only one thrust will allow your opponent to feed all his available reinforcements into the chosen battle area, and again, he can do so much easier than you.
I'm not an advocate of a FT thrust against Finschafen. Easy to take - providing the FT mission doesn't end in disaster - but difficult to hold. You'll have to operate LBA out of there if there's to be any point in taking it at all, so that's a nice little supply headache right there. This can be done in 1943, when Allied air reigns supreme. In 1942, you're setting yourself up for disaster. Your opponent can FT LCU's in with impunity, and as seen, he will have forces to spare.
Don't expect your air power to be able to interdict shipping to New Guinea. Mine failed miserably. However, it might be an idea to dedicate a few sqd's specifically to this task. B-25's & Beaufighters out of Port Moresby, B-26's and Beauforts out of Gili Gili. The trick is maximuse the area covered while avoiding putting anti-shipping aircraft within strike range of Rabaul and Shortland, which would otherwise wear your sqd's down very fast. Rotate the sqd's at first to allow them to built up XP bombing Buna & Lae. Also make sure to bomb Wewak on and off (with Hudsons, fx) to retard development here, and/or tie down enemy forces.
All in all, this in fact reinforces the argument that Lunga should not be attempted reinforced in a major way. Your best chance at stealing a march on your opponent on New Guinea is at the very beginning, against Lae that is. However, this can obviously only be done if you retain your resources in SWPAC. Once the battle for Lunga starts rolling, while it lasts, he'll have fewer - far fewer - resources to support operations on New Guinea. Appreciable gains here will help counter-balance the loss of Lunga.
Where's the Any key?
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
Timtom,
I disagree with some of the things you say here. But that is part of this wonderful game. You can follow different strategies and different options. But, above all, there is not a "perfect strategy" because most of the times what your enemy does or what happens in the game, change the course of the scenario. [;)]
I disagree with some of the things you say here. But that is part of this wonderful game. You can follow different strategies and different options. But, above all, there is not a "perfect strategy" because most of the times what your enemy does or what happens in the game, change the course of the scenario. [;)]
RE: Toro Toro! Timtom's musings: scn.8, toraq VS timtom
Naturally, I can't let Antonio have the last word, although I couldn't agree more with his post. Sadly, Tony's "busy" [;)] for the time being, but he's promised to show me how it's done later...
Where's the Any key?