A Noob vs. the Japanese AI (Dumb and Dumber)

[mhv01]

Being a noob to WitP, I'd like to summarize what's happened in my first game through 12/7/42, plus fish for some advice, comments, constructive criticism, etc...

As background, I've played quite a bit of PacWar and UV, but mainly against the AI. I tend to play games, then read the manual (the bane of tech support's existence). So, first efforts are always a trial and error gig.

That said: Allied Dmg Control ON, Japanese Sub Doctrine ON, Historical Start and Surprise ON - basically a vanilla start.

PEARL: I think I got really, really, really lucky. Not one BB sunk by KB. 4 damaged so lightly that I can whip up a scratch surface fleet and send it off to the South Pacific as a mobile (as mobile as the Nevada can be...) counterstrike force. Lots of shot up Catalinas, which is a pain, but nothing that can't be overcome.

Wake gets taken with little Japanese loss. So far, so good on the eastern side of the map. The western side, at least in part, is more of a mixed bag.

I am clearly a distant unknown descendant of Gen. Percival, as I completely underestimate the speed and striking power of the Japanese advance in Malaya. My original goal was to grudgingly give ground toward Singapore, then pull a Dunkirk with the bulk of the forces. Completely unrealistic in light of Japanese air superiority and the weakness of the Malaya Army - and my own extremely poor decisionmaking. So, the short version is the Sing AF hits nothing for three weeks, then I lose about 5000pts worth of troops for no good reason when Sing collapses. I did manage to pull unit cadres out with subs and destroyers...sent them off to Brit bases in India to rebuild. I did manage to salvage Force Z, intact, for later use. (Of course, first time I used PoW to hit Tavoy, she ate 3 torps and has spent the last year in the yards.)

You would think after getting beaten like a red-headed stepchild in Malaya, that I would have been prepared for Burma. But no, of course not. Basic plan was to build up Mandalay and Akyab. Mandalay is designed as the land unit stopper, Akyab as the airbase that is tough to get at from the ground, and just may sucker some bombardment fleet units in range of a BB/CA reaction force hovering a few hexes north. Best laid plans of mice and men, and all that... I get a late start moving the Chinese divisions west over muddy tracks euphemistically known as "trails". My blocking forces near Taung Yi and Pagan get tossed aside, and 4 Japanese divisions plus support elements beat me to Mandalay and Lashio. I do win the race to Myitkinya, but since I'm reinforcing over trails and the AI is reinforcing over a road, things look grim. Akyab is looking good, however, with a rapid buildup of men, material, and aircraft. Supply situation in eastern India looks good, forts are going up, etc. Short-legged planes are a killer, of course.

Then, it happens. 50K Japanese troops are poised to hit Myk, push my exhausted and demoralized brigades aside, and march north. At that point, the only thing stopping them short of Calcutta would be the trails, weather, and whatever ground attack aircraft I can muster. For no apparent reason, the AI pulls 2 Div back and sends them cross country toward Akyab. The other 2 are just barely too weak to shock attack the Myk units, and my Chinese reinforcements come looping in behind, snap up Lashio, and threaten Mandalay. Meanwhile, the two divisions that have detoured to Akyab show up and find a size 7 fort (soon to be size 9), almost 30k infantry and support units, 250 aircraft, and a BB heavy surface squadron. Needless to say, daily ground bombardments, air bombardments, and visits by the "R" Express (all those "R" Brit BBs), plus the miserable supply situation, over about a month turn 2 elite infantry units into walking hospital cases. By the time the AI has pulled out, I have almost no casaulties, air units with exp in the 70s, a great supply situation. Meanwhile, to the east of Akyab... If you were the Japanese, what would you do? The blocking force at Myk is 3 Chinese Divs, a UK brigade, the remnants of the Burma units, some base forces...all strongly supported by air units. You have 6 more Chinese divisions (weak, but lots of them) who have taken Lashio and are threatening Mandalay. The Allies have flown in base units for Lashio and enough supply to keep the infantry in good shape. In short, you are about to be cut off and starved out. I know! Lets throw 2 more divisions and 4 more engineering units into the coalescing pocket!

So, by about March 1, I effectively have mangled 2 infantry div in Burma and pinned 4 others, plus support units, at Myk - then taken Mandalay and cut off their supply. I don't think any human opponent would allow this to happen. How can the AI be so monumentally stupid? (Dumb question, I know...)

On to the Dutch East Indies... The Dutch AF gives a reasonably good accounting of itself, and the Japanese troubles in Burma (coupled with what seems to be an almost unbelievably bad job of troop and resource mgt by the AI) have limited the Japanese access to invasion forces. So, the Dutch go down slowly - not because they (me) do a good job of resisting, but because the resources of their opponent are limited. I pull almost all the Dutch forces out of southern Java at the end, shipping them off to Timor and northern Oz to heal up. The Dutch AF escapes intact, as does the ABDA navy, for now...

To me, the first few months in the Philippines typify the worst elements of the AI (and yes, I know, playing against a human opponent is a whole different animal...). Initial standard invasion. I can't hold the IJA off anywhere except Luzon. I keep Iolio and Cebu, only because the AI leaves them alone. I win the race to Clark Field and by late January hold the Clark/Manila/Bataan triangle. Stalemate - I don't have enough moxie to counterattack, AI doesn't have enough troops to take Clark or enough creativity to do something else. All air units pull out for India to rest, rearm, and train. Supply situation is grim, and I assume we'll have a Bataan Death March by late spring or so.

China is quiet...too quiet. I grab Pakhoi, pile troops into a few areas and build forts. CEA sits on its collective hands. About the only interesting element here is Yenen, where my I-153s shoot down over 500 Nates and Sonias in the first six months or so. (I have 5 Chinese pilots in one group with 40+ kills).

The South Pacific is interesting, as well. I decided to gamble (since I'm playing the AI and it hasn't demonstrated any ability to think on its feet). Get control of an Aussie brigade, and pour that brigade plus every spare unit I can find into Rabaul. The Oz/NZ navy & AF fights off most of the initial invasion, sinking several APs. What gets ashore isn't enough to grab Rabaul. Now it's a theatre-wide meeting engagement. I send in the Lex/Ent/Sara/York TF, plus about half of what I an scrounge up of surface and ASW assets. (I would send it all, knowing that the AI is very unlikely to hit Pearl again, but that seems way to gamey. I left a strong cruiser/destroyer force around Pearl, plus did not convert any Central Pac assets - minor house rule). Between Jan-March, I would wager the AI lost 25 transports of various types, 400+ Zeros/Betties, half the sub fleet, and 5 CA, 3 CL, 15 DD trying to crack Rabaul. I lost a ton of fighters, several ASW platforms, 10 AKs/APs, and got 3 of my PacFleet BBs laid up in repairs for 3-6 months. End result, I hold Rabual/Lae/Kavieng, effectively cutting off any push south to isolate Oz.

The SoPac conflict was also the scene of the ugliest series of early war carrier battles I've seen (worse than anything I ran into in PacWar). In April or so, recon flights after a series of air battles over Rabaul indicate Truk air units are very weak. There also are 50+ ships in harbor. I have a 4CV TF burning a hole in my pocket, so decide to stage a quick hit-and-run raid on Truk, just to gauge combat effectiveness and find out exactly what force is marshalling there. Not sure if I got lucky, or if a calculated risk paid off. I catch Zuiho and Ryujo in harbor and sink them both, damage about 10 others ships, and escape with only 1 cruiser eating a torp (minor damage). I send about 15 subs north and west of Truk for a strong picket. They won't hit anything, but at least I'll have a decent shot at seeing KB coming, since once you whap the bull on the nose, it tends to respond. The subs, plus Catalinas out of Rab/Lae/Kav, I assumed, gave me pretty good coverage. You know what you get when you assume things...

Two weeks later, I spot a 2 CV TF headed to toward Rab from just SSW of Truk. No other combatants in the area, and I had recently reconned a 4 CV TF near Taiwan, so I'm thinking it's time for calculated risk #2. I send the US CV TF into the Bismarck Sea, with a short reaction range to keep it under my LBA umbrella. And I wait... Woohoo! We ambush the Hiryu and Soryu, knock the crap out of both, and take only minor damage to Lady Lex in return. I do lose a ton of planes and pilots, but for about 15 minutes, life is good. Then, of course, the 2CV TF (Zui/Sho) that I didn't spot, pops into view. I've had very few gaming moments where I feel myself turning into a eunuch - this was one of them. US naval air did its best...I got off almost a full strike, but having lost almost 50% of my aircraft the previous day, it just wasn't enough. Some decent dmg to Zui, but the return strike was awful. Lex crippled (sunk later by Japanese sub two hexes from Rabaul), Sara and Yorktown out of commission for 5 months each, Enterprise stripped of planes but only lightly damaged. The only good news...I discover a week later that Hiryu sank near Truk...

So, the tally sheet: 3 US CV damaged and out of action til late '42, 1 sunk. 2 Japanese CVL sunk, 1 CV sunk, 1 badly damaged and out of action, 2 lightly damaged. I'll take it. The Japanese need the carriers more than I do. When my three CVs plus Wasp/Hornet come back, the strategic situation will be very different. For now, Japanese are down to 5 CVs and CVLs, plus their elite air units are decimated.

So that's where we are by late spring, 1942. I hold a line running Akyab-Mandalay-Lashio in Burma, defensive triangle in Luzon, control Timor and Amboina (unaccountably, the AI left the Amb garrison alone long enough for me to reinforce/supply), little or no movement in China. I hold all of New Guinea, which I chalk up to the meatgrinder at Rabaul. AI has gobbled up all of the Gilberts/Marshalls, but I have some fairly strong positions at Baker and Canton, with more air units on the way. AI seems to be massing at Kendari, but I have no idea when or if anything will happen from there.

May 1-Dec 7 1942 upcoming...

[mhv01]

AUUGGGHHH!

I just typed and tried to post a massive list of May-Dec actions, and a series of questions about the AI and head-to-head play. Forum system ate my post...

I'll try to post some of the Qs in a bit...they are all basic strategy questions...

[String]

Force concentration doctrine is your friend

[mhv01]

OK, I'll condense my summary of May-Dec:

Allies are winning, Japanese are losing. Allies hold line running Moulmein - Rahaeng - Lashio, no change in CHina, Allies hold 75% of Luzon and 200 B-17s are based at Clark. (Keeping them flying is a different story). Allies hold line running Timor-Kai-Amboina-Sorong-Wewak-Emirau I. Truk basically destroyed as air/naval base. 8 Japanese CVs and CVLs sunk. 5200 Japanese aircraft destroyed. No autovictory for Allies in '42, largely due to Allied player incompetence.

Now, on to the interesting stuff... Questions in several different categories for the pros out there... (And I apologize if any of these have been talked to death on the forums)

1. The AI: I've only played one game, against a Japanese AI. With that in mind, a series of questions and observations.

The AI seems completely incapable of managing resources, fuel, supplies, etc for Japan. Is this the common perception, or have I done a better job than I think I have disrupting their supply system.

AI seems incapable of mounting coherent operations after the pre-war objectives are met or initial attacks are blunted. (Example: I had almost 400 assault points and 300 aircraft at Rabaul, and AI attempts landing with a mortar unit and a base force...)

AI does not seem capable of recognizing threats and responding. What human player would allow me to hold Clark and build it up to size 9 fort and airbase, plus build up baseforces such that I can mass 400 aircraft there?

I could go on, but the overriding theme is, is there any real value in playing against the AI? I have a feeling that one year into my first game, I'm already developing bad habits that will get me hammered by a competent human opponent. I grabbed Rangoon and 30k Japanese support troops, for example, in an operation that I don't think would have had a chance against a human opponent. Holding Rabaul worked against the AI, but I think a human opponent would simply thank me for concentrating all available ground assets in one place so he could conveniently destroy them. It strikes me that this game is simply too complex for the AI to deal with.

2. Questions regarding Japanese strategy:

Now that the "India option" has been developed, is it worthwhile to proceed with that option? Seems to me that the threat of the India option forces the Allied player to choose between three poor options: give up Burma, expose India, or try to cover both with inadequate forces. What, in Japanese players' minds, are the positives for the Japanese for each of these decisions?

Of all areas, the game seems least equipped to deal with land combat in China. Historically, China tied down Japanese troops but didn't really contribute actively (I know, we can argue this ad nauseum) to the war. So, the game allows a Japanese player to destroy China, then turn on Russia (or vice versa), is this a game imbalancing flaw? Pending updates, should some sort of mutual moratorium be placed on action in China? There are a number of ways this could be done.

The Japanese player has no choice but to be aggressive in the early game. The question is, how aggressive? It seems to me there are only two basic strategic options, though each of those has a number of operational options. Option #1 is to gamble for a decisive win before the Allied material advantage becomes overwhelming. This would involve the Japanese player being extremely aggressive and taking radical measures to win (the India option, cutting off Oz, Hawaii invasion, etc). The goal would be to gain so many kill points and base points that an autovictory would be assured by 12/42. Option #2 is to rapidly gain control of a predetermined defense perimeter, fortify like mad, try to hurt the Allies as much as possible in the process, then await the inevitable deluge. The goal would be to hang on and force a win in the endgame. In short, this is the lightning war vs. attrition issue. Which Japanese players prefer which option, and why? I'd be interested to see a discussion of the merits of each, and how Allied player behavior can influence success/failure of each approach.

What value does a SoPac drive have for Japan? Should it only be done as a feint...to get the Allies to commit heavily to defense of the area? Should the goal be to force the Allies into early battles at very good odds for the Japanese? Or is it an area worth committing to for its own sake?

3. Allied Strategy Questions:

Is Singapore worth fighting for? By that, I mean it appears that the Allied player is faced with a 2 choices, each with consequences. Option #1, defend Sing to the last bullet. You could potentially delay a move north in strength, but you also lose the entire Malaya Army, minus any evacuated cadres. Option #2, pull out troops as fast as possible. You hand Malaya to the Japanese, but gain a significant number of troops, some pretty good, to use elsewhere. This helps avoid defeat in detail, but allows the Japanese to concentrate forces against fewer targets more quickly. Which approach is preferable, and why?

Same questions with Java. Java is theoretically easier to evacuate at the last minute, and is arguably better set to defend itself, but is still doomed. So, is it worth fighting for?

In the early days, it seems to be me that the Allies are forced to decide on a handful of vital areas they will fight to the end for, and everything else is purely opportunistic. What areas do Allied players feel are vital? I realize some are obvious, but some may be less so. For example, in my one short game, I have already started to form the opinion that Mandalay is crucial. It's defensible, in range of Allied air bases that can be developed, opens the door to China, fairly long supply and reinforcement line for the Japanese, etc.

Is the South Pacific an area to pull the Japanese into a war of attrition, or is it a huge vacuum that can suck in Allied war material that should be saved for a march across the Pacific? The whole malaria issue worries me about engaging too much in extended combat in SoPac, as does the distance from Pearl and the West Coast. Should the Allied player actively pursue an offensive here, no matter what?

My initial thought is that certain "tripwire" points should be determined by Allied player in advance, so one is less likely to get caught up in a heat-of-the-moment theatre meeting engagement. When a tripwire point is threatened, Allies respond. This should hold true until Allied player feels he has enough of a quality/quantity advantage to on the offensive. If so, where/what might those tripwire points be?

I'll probably post more questions, thoughts, observations, later...