Other Theatre Strengths

[Charles22]

When I RMB another front, what is the relevance of knowing what the strength of the enemy is, if one is playing the Axis? Is the minimum force formula needed to recreate the historical timeline no longer in effect? Does the Axis now have to check weekly to make sure their force is always larger then the enemy's, in order to attain the historic timeline (if so, that's a MAJOR difference from the 1000 pts. needed in NAfrica before, in the worst case scenario)? Will withdrawing any units from other theatres cause the front to collapse even if the historic formula amount is maintained? Thanks.

[RickyB]

Originally posted by Charles22:
When I RMB another front, what is the relevance of knowing what the strength of the enemy is, if one is playing the Axis? Is the minimum force formula needed to recreate the historical timeline no longer in effect? Does the Axis now have to check weekly to make sure their force is always larger then the enemy's, in order to attain the historic timeline (if so, that's a MAJOR difference from the 1000 pts. needed in NAfrica before, in the worst case scenario)? Will withdrawing any units from other theatres cause the front to collapse even if the historic formula amount is maintained? Thanks.

The required strengths were changed quite a bit, and the Axis strengths can be halved depending on the current situation, such as
being in North Africa or Sicily in the summer of 1943, or in the west before an invasion in 1944. This makes an event almost guaranteed during a historical window but not at a set time anymore - it could be delayed for weeks depending on chance. The allied strength is level for the year, so if the Axis is stronger at one point and not reduced, there is no need to check again. For the campaign, the default strengths should fairly well protect from problems. There are no more automatic events though to balance this change out.

The allied strength can also get a random number added between 1-500 for the south and 1-750 for the west if the Axis leader fails a leadership check - Hitler has a one third chance of being used for this check.

Then, when a shatter does occur, the delay before the next shatter check is based on the pre-shatter strength, so if you try and time the shatter and remove most of the units, you will face the next shatter event quite fast, but if you are strong, it will delayed by quite awhile. It is not perfect, but it never has been and this was the best we could come up with to keep experienced players from stripping the front just before the old historical events were coming without any kind of penalty. There are series of events for Italy that will cause the Axis strength to be halved each time if it is 1943 or later, so stripping the front can cause all of these to happen really fast, or require a doubling of strength to prevent.

Also, the Allied strength in the south goes down in 1945, which was fairly historical with the invasion of southern France in later 1944.

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Rick Bancroft
Semper Fi

[Charles22]

RickyB: You answered a lot of questions there, but what happens if I reduce NAfrica to the 1000 needed under the old formula, though the theatre starts out with 1700+? It used to be that if I had 1000 pts. (or was it 1500?) there in '41 then it met all the bad things that could happen to the Axis (clear weather, leader fails check, etc.)? Is there now a different formula but higher, such as 1500 in '41, 2500 in '42 and so on? If so, I would like to know what it is. I see no point in modeling a front if I cannot withdraw anything for all practical purposes. This is further complicated by the fact that particularly the West Front varied in unit strength quite a bit historically. If I understand correctly, if some future SS division is added there, but was later withdrawn to the Eastern Front, historywise, I would be stuck with it in the West, to have any hope of maintaining historic timelines, correct?

It looks as though I won't be able to send any units back and forth to/from those theatres if I don't have a numerical strength value that must be maintained and know what it is.

I understand all the rules regarding panzer divisions and the SS and what happens to the front without them. My problem is that I fully intend to staff those theatres with the minimum panzer/SS panzer divisions and should EVERY single check fail, still have enough there to pass all checks, which in NAfrica, which I said, in '41, was either 1000 or 1500. Thanks.

[RickyB]

Originally posted by Charles22:
RickyB: You answered a lot of questions there, but what happens if I reduce NAfrica to the 1000 needed under the old formula, though the theatre starts out with 1700+? It used to be that if I had 1000 pts. (or was it 1500?) there in '41 then it met all the bad things that could happen to the Axis (clear weather, leader fails check, etc.)? Is there now a different formula but higher, such as 1500 in '41, 2500 in '42 and so on? If so, I would like to know what it is. I see no point in modeling a front if I cannot withdraw anything for all practical purposes. This is further complicated by the fact that particularly the West Front varied in unit strength quite a bit historically. If I understand correctly, if some future SS division is added there, but was later withdrawn to the Eastern Front, historywise, I would be stuck with it in the West, to have any hope of maintaining historic timelines, correct?

It looks as though I won't be able to send any units back and forth to/from those theatres if I don't have a numerical strength value that must be maintained and know what it is.

I understand all the rules regarding panzer divisions and the SS and what happens to the front without them. My problem is that I fully intend to staff those theatres with the minimum panzer/SS panzer divisions and should EVERY single check fail, still have enough there to pass all checks, which in NAfrica, which I said, in '41, was either 1000 or 1500. Thanks.

Sorry I didn't explain the entire process. Basically, the Axis strength, which is listed when you check it, must be higher than a random number between 1 and the allied strength listed. To the allied strength, the allied strength can be boosted further by a random amount from 1-500 or 1-750 if the Axis leader check fails.

Thus, in 1941, the allied strength is listed as 1500, to which another 500 can be added. Thus, in the very worst case, the allied player could achieve a strength of 2000 points, but this would require a 1 in 1500 chance on the first check, an approximately 1 in four chance of the Axis leadership check failing, and then a 1 in 500 chance of maxing out the bonus. Realistically, based on my old (I won't say how old) statistics and probability classes, this means that in the first turn the actual chance of failing is about 1 in 30, give or take a some. Reduce the Axis strength by removing 200 points, and this jumps the chances significantly, to maybe 1 in 15. There would no chance if the Axis strength was over 2000.

Anyway, the key is that as long as the Axis strength is around the current allied strength there is only a small chance of an event happening.In 1943 for Italy, and 1944 in Normandy, there is almost no chance of stopping the initial events, but keeping some strength in place will slow down the next one. Then the decrease in Axis strength also goes away at some point, allowing the player to hold the front again, or use the units elsewhere.

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Rick Bancroft
Semper Fi

[Charles22]

Thanks Rick, good hard data there.

[jfbfr]

In some games, axis strength in others theaters
goes down quickly (ie : italian front down to 1200 pts on 13/07/41 with 80 % replacements and 22nd panzer added) and the front systemically shatters as soon as its strength is under the allied one. In others starts, the game behaves as you described. Is there something i can do or am i simply cursed ?