No Barbarossa, Scenerio for Soviet attack.

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Tue May 29, 2001 8:50 am

To All

I found the earlier thread 'would the Soviets have attacked if Germany did not' to be interesting enough to try out the option as best i could in WiR.

1. Edited a '41 campaign and rebuilt the Axis line for defence. This entailed placing an Inf corps on every hex of the line (rounded off a few corners) and placing 3 full strength Inf Div's + an art unit in every corps. Each Inf army HQ has 2 Flk,2 Stg,2 Pzj,2 Art,1 AT.
The 4 Pz Armies are placed roughly 3/4 hexes back and contain 2 Pz Corps per army (with 2 Pz Div's,1 Mot,1 Art,1 Flk each).
Nth,Cnt,Sth HQ's have 1 Inf corps each +1Sec.
I used the rest of the German and Italian forces to flesh out the West and Med to a high level and built up a strategic res around 2nd Army SE of Berlin.(4 Corps)
Industry was not touched and the Luftwaffe was spread about fairly evenly.

2. Started playing Hum/Hum and reorganised German Ind straight off (fighters shift to FW 190's exct)and upgraded Med Air.
Only slowly altered Soviet forces/Ind for first 3 Months as they would have been fairly sluggish to start but speeded up the process during the second 3 months(to the end of 41).
During this second 3 month period i played (for each side) only every 2nd turn (skip past one each)but did all i could during those turns ie: upgrades, rail move, placement. This is to simulate that the countries are not at war and preparations would be more relaxed(also makes the process move faster)
So far have(for the soviets) rationalised production a fair bit, built all HQ's & reorganised armies properly with front covered + 4 tank heavy fronts just behind line. Air units rotate training for 4 turns each. Germany has much less ground movement but Luftwaffe and Pz forces+ axis allies are getting regular upgrades.

It is now Jan 42.

3. This is where it stands now as i thought i'd post this to see what suggestions you may have, especially to soviet deployment. I will include good ideas over the next 5/6 game months untill good weather allows the Soviets option to attack in '42.

As a matter of interest. By Aug/Sep West front was 4500/1000 and Med was 6000/1500.

Like to hear any comments. Will make saved game available as good weather approaches to anyone who wants to try their luck with the Soviets attacking in May/June? 1942. Will continue the process in any case to '43 good weather as i want to see if Luftwaffe can beat off Allied bombing as well as a Soviet '43 start.

Nick, aka Loki

EDIT

PS. Would Soviets concentrate in the north? Or launch a more general attack. Would they spread the armor or concentrate it.

[ May 29, 2001: Message edited by: Lokioftheaesir ]

matt.buttsworth · Post by **matt.buttsworth** » Tue May 29, 2001 10:38 am

There are two theories for the possible Soviet attack - Suvorov's, which has no documentary proof and is based on circumstantial evidence and consists of an attack out of the Lvov salient into the mountains south of Krakow, while another soviet armoured unit which is not on the 1941 map attacks on the railway south of Lvov towards Ploesti Bucherest.
This attack is supported by a large Soviet attack straight ahead using the strong armoured infantry forces from Odessa.
Aim grab the German oil and then wipe them out. This was similer to the Timenshenko November 1940 plan although no information on the Odessa front is given there and Suvorov never refers to Timenshenko's draft or to any Soviet documentary evidence.
The second Soviet plan is based on a submission signed by Timenshenko/Zhukov and is backed by the build up of Soviet forces.
It is in essence a Soviet version of the German drive through France to the sea the year before. Large amoured units from Lvov Head towards Krakow and wheel round towards Warsaw behind the Bug? river (do not have an atlas here. These join up with the Soviet armoured units from Baliostok to encircle the German infantry armoured units North of Lvov and West of Brest-Litvosk.
The aim is then to drive to the sea completing the encirclement of the German armies in East Prussia.
It would have been a deadly attack.
No instructions for the Odessa front are given although no doubt a plan would have existed so it can be assumed a la Suvorov that the strong Armoured forces south of Lvov and in Oddessa would still be driving on Ploesti with no German armoured forces to oppose them and those in the North firghting for their lives!
Dates for proposed Soviet attack (Suvorov no evidence July 6th 1941). Hoffman using statements by captured Soviet officers August/September 1941 with the speed of the Axis build up forcing a swith of dates possibly to beginning of July at which time it is very doubtful the Soviet troops (training etc) could possibly have been ready although they could have been in position.
Best Mir game I can think of - play the Zhujov plan with attack late August (need to give them a few turns before possible mud or to stop the mud effect play it forward in July admitting that historically that would not have happened).
I can do the troop map with actual Russian position a la Zhukov May plan.
Question
A)- is it possible to turn off the conversion of Soviet mechanized corps to infantry armies at the start of July so that they can perform a blitzkrieg (soviet version operations in the deep)?
Conversion to infantry units would destroy the scenario entirely - the five hex movement is needed for encirclement.
b) Is it possible to play with readiness so that the Soviets start with very high readiness (99%) and the Germans are caught with low readiness (they could recover quickly though) as Zhukov's plan given to Stalin was to attack the German's while they were deploying and sieze the tactical/strategic iniative in the same way that the Germans did attack while the Russians were deploying.
I would be very interested inplaying this scenario as I think it would be an enthralling what if with the German task being to avoid encirclement and save the Ploesti oilfields before disaster.
As I said I have the details of the Zhukov plan so drawing up a troop map on Wir would not be difficult, will have a go at it this afternoon.
I just do not know how to play with the other parts of Mir.
Will be interested if anyone could help me with points a) and b).

matt.buttsworth · Post by **matt.buttsworth** » Tue May 29, 2001 10:56 am

another point.
The Soviets, unlike the Germans, did have detailed plans dating back to 1930 of converting their railway wagon for use on the narrower European spur - many of their wagons could be used across Europe as the Germans later did once they found out how to convert them.
To mimic this effect, is there anyway to allow the Soviets to convert three Axis rail squares per turn to mimic these preperations as is planned to do in the updated version of Wir 3.0 as that would enable them to advance much more rapidly and their planning on this point was certainly infinitely more detailed than the German.
PS - it is so much fun to be able to discuss these points, as up till now much of my reading for a chapter in a book I am planning to write has just been locked up in my head.

matt.buttsworth · Post by **matt.buttsworth** » Tue May 29, 2001 10:58 am

PS - Loki, I am also Australian although currently living in Switzerland. Where are you from in Oz?

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Tue May 29, 2001 5:35 pm

Matthew

These historical plans can be applied in a general way but are pretty fuzzy for being 'think tank' stuff of a nation that had its officer corps decimated only shortly before (see Finland) The Zhukov plan sounds reasonable but they must have been into the vodka to think they could do it that year. The idea of the process i'm running is that the Germans plan to hold in the east and concentrate elsewhere. The Soviets are simply not ready to attack in '41 and if they had i feel their frontier armies would have done about as well as they did historically after the germans attacked. They will have a far better chance during good weather in '42 as the german defencive dispositions ( as i outlined them in the first post) cannot change on the ground within 8 hexes of the border(my own rule) untill the soviets actually declare war by attacking.
The lack of tank army shells will also probably delay any attack untill they come back(june42?)
I agree that they would attack in force NW from Lvov area but only in conjuction with attacks further north.
Ive done a few more turns and it is now late Jan '42. The Soviet army will certainly be a lot stronger than June 41 and the Airforce especially will cause the Axis much harm as they are training and replacing the old models with Yak 1's and Pe 2's exct.
Would they go straight west to Berlin or take out Rumania and hold in the north?
(Rumania is a problem due to lack of rail lines)
Or wait till '43 and do both in strength.

Nick

PS. Matthew. I live in NE N.S.W. Town called Maclean near coast.(15 min from beach)

[ May 29, 2001: Message edited by: Lokioftheaesir ]

Mist · Post by **Mist** » Tue May 29, 2001 7:23 pm

Something should be done with manpower, because it is doubtfull that Soviet Union would mobilize almost all fighting-capable men in this case.

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Wed May 30, 2001 4:23 am

Originally posted by Mist:
Something should be done with manpower, because it is doubtfull that Soviet Union would mobilize almost all fighting-capable men in this case.

Mist

Good point. How about if i keep 20-30 Soviet inf divs in 2 HQ's back near Gorki. They represent the manpower that should not be called up as this is not a 'fight to the death' for the Rodina (yet). 30% could be released every 6 months after war starts.
Could also do same with armor and airforce as reserve would be kept back from fighting.

More suggestions like this please.

Nick

[ May 29, 2001: Message edited by: Lokioftheaesir ]

Mist · Post by **Mist** » Wed May 30, 2001 5:09 am

Depending on "what-if" background of your scenario, it would be possible to remove/limit Lend Lease supplies.
Regarding manpower again, I would say that Soviet side has manpower multiplier of 4 in 1942 instead of 8 in 1941. Which means that they recieve 4 squads per population point each week. It probably could be enough, but Germans have multiplier of 2.5 and lower manpower, so it is possible to add some population to them. Also, order of battle must be changed for both sides with Germans hurying to raise new divisions and Soviets having most divisions already mobilised.
Ricky had done huge work creating similar scenario and he changed OOBs also. I advise you to take a look at his scenario to get the idea I am talking about. There also currently exists problem with raising new HQs inside of scenario editor, since they appear to have 0 Ops and no simple way exists to edit OPs. Perhaps it will be changed in new release.
ANother suggestion is to decrease German readiness and remove their entrenchments.

[ May 29, 2001: Message edited by: Mist ]

matt.buttsworth · Post by **matt.buttsworth** » Fri Jun 01, 2001 6:28 pm

I am not sure about last point. If you look at Stalin's collectivization or industralization policies he was absolutely ruthless at doing it no matter what the cost.
The idea that he would not have called up all Soviet manpower because the situation was not as desperate and the attack was in someway therefore a limited operation I think is dubious.
The attack would have been the culmination of years of planning, industrialization and arming at tremendous cost and ideologically would have been the crowning glory of Bolshevism. I believe he would have been totally ruthless, called up every man, and allocated every unit to the Western front which he believed were necessary for the attack's success. And in Soviet doctrine that meant absolute superitory and overkill at the critical section of the front (schwerpunkt). MRB

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Sat Jun 02, 2001 8:09 am

Originally posted by Mist:
Depending on "what-if" background of your scenario, it would be possible to remove/limit Lend Lease supplies.
Regarding manpower again, I would say that Soviet side has manpower multiplier of 4 in 1942 instead of 8 in 1941. Which means that they recieve 4 squads per population point each week. It probably could be enough, but Germans have multiplier of 2.5 and lower manpower, so it is possible to add some population to them. Also, order of battle must be changed for both sides with Germans hurying to raise new divisions and Soviets having most divisions already mobilised.
Ricky had done huge work creating similar scenario and he changed OOBs also. I advise you to take a look at his scenario to get the idea I am talking about. There also currently exists problem with raising new HQs inside of scenario editor, since they appear to have 0 Ops and no simple way exists to edit OPs. Perhaps it will be changed in new release.
ANother suggestion is to decrease German readiness and remove their entrenchments.

[ May 29, 2001: Message edited by: Mist ]

Mist

I do not know how to stop allied lend lease in this situation and feel the allies would continue lend lease anyway. The manpower multiplier is something i have to work around as well. The game is configuered for an Axis attack and to reverse the situation causes some problems.
Why would the axis line have it's entrenchments reduced? I can see no reason for this.

Matthew

Ok, i see your point. I will modify the plans i have for soviet reserve somewhat but i agree with Mist that soviets would not have their hearts in it as they would if germans attacked. Fighting for your life concentrates the attention of nations and individuals alike.

I'm up to early March with the project and also wish to include some of the ideas i have seen in RickB's '42 scenerio that i'm studying (natural placements as opposed to grognard ones)

Thanks for the input. Keep it up.

Nick

Mist · Post by **Mist** » Mon Jun 04, 2001 1:55 am

Originally posted by Matthew Buttsworth:
I am not sure about last point. If you look at Stalin's collectivization or industralization policies he was absolutely ruthless at doing it no matter what the cost.
The idea that he would not have called up all Soviet manpower because the situation was not as desperate and the attack was in someway therefore a limited operation I think is dubious.
The attack would have been the culmination of years of planning, industrialization and arming at tremendous cost and ideologically would have been the crowning glory of Bolshevism. I believe he would have been totally ruthless, called up every man, and allocated every unit to the Western front which he believed were necessary for the attack's success. And in Soviet doctrine that meant absolute superitory and overkill at the critical section of the front (schwerpunkt). MRB

No matter at what cost? Even if it would hit industry levels? No. Adult men busy in war-important industry would not be called up to be replaced by children and women. No. Stalin was ruthless tiran but not stupid to do that. Have you at least one more or less modern example when attacking side would call up every last man to the war? And last point. It is not THE SOVIET DOCTRINE to have absolute superiority in crucial point. It is everyone's doctrine. Even Germans, as tactical masters, mostly had absolute superiority in crucial points of attack until 1942. It was their mastership to create such supperiority.

matt.buttsworth · Post by **matt.buttsworth** » Mon Jun 04, 2001 1:23 pm

good point. But up till the point where calling up men would have effected military and necessary food production, I believe they would have called up everyone they could.

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Tue Jun 05, 2001 4:23 am

Mist and Matthew

Ok, i'm up to late April '42 and there is one hell of a lot of soviet units to handle.
Stalin has decided that the soviet Union is going to attack the Axis the turn after Tank army shells appear+ clear weather so the fronts that will attack are getting most attention.
To handle the question of Soviet call up i've placed 2 HQ's near Gorki and in each will be 20-25 Inf,3-4 Tnk and 8 air units.
The units in the first HQ cannot be touched untill 12 turns after the soviet attack and the second 24 turns after. They will be in place before the attack starts.
This should handle, over the space of 6 months the shift from 'a huge attack west' to 'a total war'.
I've used some of RickB's ideas but both sides have/will upgrade factories manually to get the best types so the Soviets will be using mostly Yak-1's for example.
The Axis is doing little as the 'no ground units in or out of the 8 hex from the front zone rule' means that new Corps are organised now and then in germany & attached to 2nd army (now 2Pz 3Inf)

Do you think the Sov units held back in the 2 HQ's a fair amount? Too much? Too little?

Nick

Mist · Post by **Mist** » Wed Jun 06, 2001 2:00 am

Loki! It is possible to edit availability dates with ingame editor, so you can set delay values for these Soviet divisions.
Realy, I don't know what amount of divisions should be delayed on Soviet side. But I have other ideas. You know, war preparations can not be unseen, so if Soviet Union set its war economy to total war production, Germany should be awared of that and deploy its troops in defensive position with deeply entrenched troops, strong reserves in HQs and high readiness. If Soviet war economy is working as in peace time, then Germany will be hit by surprise attack(no or very little entrenchment, low readiness, vulnerable HQs, reserves in OKH/OKW etc) but by lesser amount of divisions, because total mobilisation would begin right after first day of war. Choose what you like.

Lokioftheaesir · Post by **Lokioftheaesir** » Wed Jun 06, 2001 4:52 am

Originally posted by Mist:
Loki! It is possible to edit availability dates with ingame editor, so you can set delay values for these Soviet divisions.
Realy, I don't know what amount of divisions should be delayed on Soviet side. But I have other ideas. You know, war preparations can not be unseen, so if Soviet Union set its war economy to total war production, Germany should be awared of that and deploy its troops in defensive position with deeply entrenched troops, strong reserves in HQs and high readiness. If Soviet war economy is working as in peace time, then Germany will be hit by surprise attack(no or very little entrenchment, low readiness, vulnerable HQs, reserves in OKH/OKW etc) but by lesser amount of divisions, because total mobilisation would begin right after first day of war. Choose what you like.

Mist

Quite right. This would mean hovever that i would have to do the whole thing again from the start and i'm only 6-8 turns away from soviet attack. When i get to that point i will consider doing as RickB did and edit the whole thing in one go. (maybe a '43 or '44 soviet attack) Think i'll wait for new version with new map???(will it have a new map and icons?).

Thanks

Nick

Ed Cogburn · Post by **Ed Cogburn** » Wed Jun 06, 2001 6:58 am

Originally posted by Lokioftheaesir:
Think i'll wait for new version with new map???(will it have a new map and icons?).

As far as I know there won't be a new map in the next version unless I can get people to adopt Mist's map. The absence of an east-west rail line in Rumania-Ukraine is a big problem, and just can't be historical, but the creator of the current map is unavailable, so we can't get him to add that (or at least argue with him about it). Arnaud would then have to do some work to use that map, and he's probably unwilling to do so right now.

Divisions can be delayed, and western air and lendlease can be removed, but replacements multiplier is a big problem. Its hardwired in the game for certain dates (Russians start out getting 8 multipler to represent initial mobilization in '41 for example). What we need is somebody to crack the replacement multiplier and supply level in the *wir.exe* to allow really unique scenarios. Russians getting Blizkreig supply, or Germans getting an initial mobilization replacement multiplier are examples.