PBEM from May 42: Mogami-san VS Capt. Ron

[Ron Saueracker]

Wow! A relatively dull turn. Only high point was watching Mogami trip over his boast about me leaving subs in one spot and because of this how easy they are to sink. I always move my subs every turn or so. Problem is that ships don't seem to have ops limits for ASW and can attack anything they pass over and having a concentration sets up the domino theory.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/22/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Kendari , at 33,71


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 41


No Allied losses

Runway hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Shuzan Naval Guard Unit, at 28,38


Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 39


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
51 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 16th Division, at 22,64

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 4
A6M3 Zero x 4

Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 50
Kittyhawk I x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 damaged
A6M3 Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Wirraway: 5 destroyed, 4 damaged
Kittyhawk I: 2 destroyed

Japanese ground losses:
38 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 48th Division, at 20,63


Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 13
Hudson I x 13
P-40E Warhawk x 4


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
31 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 18th Division, at 20,63


Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 9
Hudson I x 9
P-40E Warhawk x 3


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 2nd Tank Regiment, at 30,38


Allied aircraft
Hurricane II x 8
Blenheim I x 9


Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 3rd Base Force, at 24,68


Allied aircraft
CW-21B Demon x 9
Kittyhawk I x 2
Beaufort V-IX x 49
P-39D Airacobra x 15
B-25C Mitchell x 10


Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort V-IX: 1 damaged
B-25C Mitchell: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
153 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Zuid Garrison Battalion, at 24,68

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 22
G4M1 Betty x 15

Allied aircraft
CW-21B Demon x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
CW-21B Demon: 5 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
39 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Macassar , at 30,69


Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 8


No Allied losses

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 56,52

Japanese Ships
TK Toho Maru
TK Teiyo Maru
PC Ch 10
PC Ch 8
PC Ch 3
PG Koei Maru
PG Kiso Maru

Allied Ships
SS Halibut

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[testarossa]

Hey Ron I really enjoy your WW2-vintage newsreel rant. Keep it on.

[Ron Saueracker]

ORIGINAL: testarossa

Hey Ron I really enjoy your WW2-vintage newsreel rant. Keep it on.

I don't want anyone to think I've turned to puddin' with that "What I love about WITP" thread. Seriously, a few things could stand some attention. I'm only trying to get whatever I can fixed, even if it's more than a long shot.

[Ron Saueracker]

Nothin' special today. The cargo ship Empire Flamingo, badly damaged at Tjilitjap during the "big raid" and forced to evacuate the port prematurely due to imminent occupation by Japanese forces with 97% system damage and some minor flooding, succumbed to her damage 100 miles away from Derby. The Captain was not among the survivors.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/23/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Kendari , at 33,71


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 28


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
32 casualties reported

Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 4th Division, at 20,63


Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 47
Kittyhawk I x 9


Allied aircraft losses
Wirraway: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
37 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Vehicles lost 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 1st Hvy Field Artillery Regiment, at 28,38


Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 30


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
37 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 1st Engineer Regiment, at 30,38


Allied aircraft
Hurricane II x 8
Blenheim I x 12


Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim I: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 56th Division, at 20,63


Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 19
Hudson I x 23
P-40E Warhawk x 7


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
104 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Ron Saueracker]

Again, nothing special. Calm before the storm?

[Ron Saueracker]

Not much drama last few days. The withdrawl to Soerbaja proceeds on schedule.

One thing of note. The oldest USN submarine to make a war patrol, S-18, commanded by Cdr Moke Millican, sinks a MSW in some hot action off Rabaul.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/25/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 61,90

Japanese Ships
PG Chokai Maru
MSW Hanata Maru #6
MSW Hagoromo Maru
MSW Choun Maru #21
MSW Choun Maru #18
MSW Bisan Maru

Allied Ships
SS S-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 61,82

Japanese Ships
MSW Banshu Maru #51

Allied Ships
SS S-44

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 61,90

Japanese Ships
MSW Bisan Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PG Chokai Maru
MSW Hanata Maru #6
MSW Hagoromo Maru
MSW Choun Maru #21
MSW Choun Maru #18

Allied Ships
SS S-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 61,90

Japanese Ships
PG Chokai Maru
MSW Hanata Maru #6
MSW Hagoromo Maru
MSW Choun Maru #21
MSW Choun Maru #18

Allied Ships
SS S-18

[Ron Saueracker]

Daily grind of bombardments, and air to ground attacks.

That darned ASW group off Japan is getting annoying. Easier for me just to pull back my subs and make the bugger burn fuel.[;)]

[mogami]

Hi, I have fuel at all the bases between Japan and the South. I placed it there just for use by ASW TF.

[Ron Saueracker]

Mogami's troops on Java, approx 100,000, attacked the position NE of Soerabaja occupied by some veterans units and forced them to retreat to Soerabaja.

A raid by 10th AF B-17s on Bangkok is met by fighters and the B-17s are mauled. The 11 .50 cals don't do much to even the flimsiest fighters it seems, yet they fall themselves like leaves. Oh, well, makes up for the generous maintenance cost I suppose.[8|]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/27/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 59,48

Japanese Ships
PG Choan Maru #2
PG Oi Maru
PC Kyo Maru #2
PC Ch 14
PC Ch 16
PC Ch 17

Allied Ships
SS Gar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Bangkok , at 29,40

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 17
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 20

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 94

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 10 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 7 destroyed, 9 damaged
Ki-46-II Dinah: 5 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 27 destroyed, 65 damaged

Japanese Ships
AP Jinsan Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
381 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

Airbase hits 13
Runway hits 15
Port hits 3
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Kendari , at 33,71


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 35
LB-30 Liberator x 27


No Allied losses

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Sasebo 1st SNLF, at 24,68


Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 14


Allied aircraft losses
Wirraway: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
37 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 48th Division, at 22,64


Allied aircraft
Martin 139 x 24
Hudson I x 29
P-40E Warhawk x 7


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
88 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Macassar , at 30,69

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged

Runway hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 22,64

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 92962 troops, 654 guns, 9 vehicles

Defending force 12547 troops, 145 guns, 216 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 9 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
1107 casualties reported
Guns lost 55
Vehicles lost 5

Allied ground losses:
243 casualties reported
Guns lost 24
Vehicles lost 3


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

[mogami]

Hi, Great sub hunt scores first hit.

[Ron Saueracker]

Incorrect. This is a different sub that was just arriving to area on its way to the Formosa Strait. That sub just moved through the hex. I'm moving all the subs. What is happening is subs are not getting the chance to evade, ever. You either get sub detected or sub fires, and in each case sub open to counter attack. 4 DCs were dropped, 3 hit. 75% accuracy for an unguided weapon. The escorts would have been lucky to do the damage Trigger received after each dropping 30 DCs. This is silly. What's even more silly is that nothing is being done about it.

The number of sub detections is way too high. How are they detecting the sub? Let's think about this. It's on the surface? Subs have a lower sillouette than surface ships so chance should be minimal. At night? Sure same thing, but the sub has usually attacked by this point. Submerged? Odds are getting really low now, even for a dedicated ASW TF. The sub is just as capable of maneuvering as the ASW ships, and could go silent and deep and using passive sonar, evade the ships. But what we are seeing is at least 50% of the sub vs ship encounter being "sub detected" and counter attacked.

What about radar? How does this work in the model? Does it increase the chance for detecting a surfaced sub at night? How does model differentiate between Japanese subs with no radar and Allied subs having radar on the ability of the enemy surface ships to detect them? Does radar even figure in the detection vulnerability of subs so equipped? List goes on...

How about some answers from the devs regarding how this all works, why they decided to model it this way, and why do they refuse to change it given the weight of evidence suggesting the model is off target.

[Ron Saueracker]

Any ASW attack made by Mog off Japan is pure luck and an example how overly generous the devs have made it for ASW. Every sub was moved yet...

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/28/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 64,47

Japanese Ships
PG Kiso Maru
PC Ch 10
PG Koei Maru
PC Ch 8
PC Ch 3
PG Nikkai Maru

Allied Ships
SS Tautog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 64,47

Japanese Ships
DD Sawakaze
DD Mikazuki
DD Nagatsuki
DD Fumizuki

Allied Ships
SS Tautog


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 60,50

Japanese Ships
DD Arashio
DD Asagumo
DD Minegumo
DD Natsugumo
DD Nowaki
DD Yukikaze

Allied Ships
SS Trigger

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 60,50

Japanese Ships
DD Hibiki
DD Wakaba
DD Kamikaze
DD Uzuki
DD Kazegumo
DD Asanagi

Allied Ships
SS Trigger, hits 3, on fire, heavy damage


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Bali

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 6447 troops, 28 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 4413 troops, 22 guns, 3 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 4)


Japanese ground losses:
340 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

Allied ground losses:
27 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

[mogami]

Hi, That is a screen shot of my orders phase. Enemy submarine icon is showing (Sub is spotted) Now if you are moving a submarine out and another in LOL

[Tristanjohn]

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker

Incorrect. This is a different sub that was just arriving to area on its way to the Formosa Strait. That sub just moved through the hex. I'm moving all the subs. What is happening is subs are not getting the chance to evade, ever. You either get sub detected or sub fires, and in each case sub open to counter attack. 4 DCs were dropped, 3 hit. 75% accuracy for an unguided weapon. The escorts would have been lucky to do the damage Trigger received after each dropping 30 DCs. This is silly. What's even more silly is that nothing is being done about it.

The number of sub detections is way too high. How are they detecting the sub? Let's think about this. It's on the surface? Subs have a lower sillouette than surface ships so chance should be minimal. At night? Sure same thing, but the sub has usually attacked by this point. Submerged? Odds are getting really low now, even for a dedicated ASW TF. The sub is just as capable of maneuvering as the ASW ships, and could go silent and deep and using passive sonar, evade the ships. But what we are seeing is at least 50% of the sub vs ship encounter being "sub detected" and counter attacked.

What about radar? How does this work in the model? Does it increase the chance for detecting a surfaced sub at night? How does model differentiate between Japanese subs with no radar and Allied subs having radar on the ability of the enemy surface ships to detect them? Does radar even figure in the detection vulnerability of subs so equipped? List goes on...

How about some answers from the devs regarding how this all works, why they decided to model it this way, and why do they refuse to change it given the weight of evidence suggesting the model is off target.

Well, over on another thread (I think it's the bombardment thread that's still current) Ray suggests that if you change one dynamic such as this then it's going to disrupt other routines with even worse effect down the road. In my opinion that's doubletalk and told him so directly (for what good that will do [:)]). He further suggests that while it might be true that one aspect of the model or another might be idiotic, some other aspect equally idiotic will somehow "balance it all out in the end," or words to that effect. In other words, it would be okay for the Japanese to have kind of advantage that was ahistorical if the Alliues in turn were granted some other kind of advantage equally ahistoric which had a similar effect on the bottom line. To my mind, that is nothing but a convolution of logic.

Did I say "doubletalk"? I think we're also dealing with some sort of companyese here as well.

I haven't suffered from this super ASW ability yet as my subs are constantly on the move due to my inability to find anything "useful" for them to do other than ferry cadres and lay mines. (Allied sub doctrine for our PBEM is toggled on, as you know. [:D]) As a direct result of all this movement I've found it necessary to consign a lot of these boats to drydock for repairs, plus my first upgrades are ready now.

However, it does appear, from your reports and others I've read, that the general scheme of things re subs/ASW groups is ca-ca along with other stuff too numerous to even keep track of any more. I shake my head.

Re why it isn't changed: my best guess is, besides the tortured logic, they just don't give a damn. You have a better guess than that? If so please share it. I could stand a happier "perspective." [8D]

[Ron Saueracker]

ORIGINAL: Mogami

Hi, That is a screen shot of my orders phase. Enemy submarine icon is showing (Sub is spotted) Now if you are moving a submarine out and another in LOL

Yeah, I know! Forgot about the subs coming in and out. Did not check their routes![X(]

[freeboy]

4 DCs were dropped, 3 hit. 75% accuracy for an unguided weapon. The escorts would have been lucky to do the damage Trigger received after each dropping 30 DCs. This is silly. What's even more silly is that nothing is being done about it.

Pretty sure that is four groups of charges Ron

[mogami]

Hi, Ron Amid all this talk about ahistoric ASW results for the period why don't you post the total numbar of Japanese ships sunk or damaged by your submarines thus far.
I think it is on the ahistoric side. Way on the high side. Why? because the Allied submarines have been very aggressive.
Also you know where to place submarines to where they will encounter Japanese.
You know I do not go certain places and so you don't need picket subs in many areas where they were used.
Yiou have more submarines in active areas and I have more ASW in those areas then history.

I play both sides in PBEM. I sink more enemy submarines then I lose no matter what side.
I still inflict damage on enemy no matter what side I play using my submarines.
I just don't try to fight some kind of massive battle with submarines. I keep my submarines several days movement (for enemy ASW) apart. I leave areas when I encounter a lot of ASW.
I move (far) after my submarines are spotted.


And yes each DC on ASW ship is a salvo not a single DC. So his sub was hit by 3 out of many not 3 out of 4 DC.
Ron cannot help hmself. He views every animation as a movie of events as they occur.
Those ASW attacks are 8 hours of ASW hunting the sub in question. Not a 5 minute buzz attack.

[Ron Saueracker]

And yes each DC on ASW ship is a salvo not a single DC. So his sub was hit by 3 out of many not 3 out of 4 DC

Actually, they are single DCs. It was designed this way. I just said this was bunk and changed the ammo on the DC rails and K/Y guns to signify patterns.

I'm not saying players can and don't use assets ahistorically...this happens because a multitude of reasons stemming from a games various failures with regard to simulating the proper conditions of use. My main thrust in most of my posts goes beyond just failing to provide the conditions, but creating new conditions which exascerbate the issue. ASW as modelled is one such case.

[Ron Saueracker]

Hi, Ron Amid all this talk about ahistoric ASW results for the period why don't you post the total numbar of Japanese ships sunk or damaged by your submarines thus far.
I think it is on the ahistoric side. Way on the high side

I'll check on this...hang on. I know I'm not using my subs over aggressively, unless putting them to sea qualifies. I even have each sub spend a minimum of three weeks in port after a patrol.

Ships sunk by USN submarines as of June 29, 1942 in our game. 8 total. 5 AP, 1 AK, 1 PC, 1 MSW.

Ships sunk according to JANAC by USN submarines up to and including June 42 is 69.

I don't see where I have been overly aggressive. These 69 only include those sinkings confirmed by Japanese records.

So, WITP is contrary to history by approx 800% regarding sinkings.

Sub losses to date in game, all to Japanese surface ship depth charge attacks... 16 including Trigger which won't survive the turn.

Historically, only 2 were lost to surface ship ASW, Perch and Shark. This is another 800% discrepancy.

Any more questions?[;)]

[mogami]

Hi, WOW you really suck in ASW/Submarine warfare. (or your FOW is really good)
However are these submarine torps?
Mk-14,533mm W1,450mm H1,Mk-10,Mk-VIII,,Mk-VIIc, Mk-IX
They have sunk a total of 44 ships.
(not counting the 18in torps which I am certain are air)
and not counting damaged ships. (of which there are many and you know it)
And your numbers are kind of funny. My sources say that Japan lost 52 ships from all causes between Dec 7 41 and May 1 1942.
So we need to sort out the actual numbers. Because if subs actually sank over 10 ships per month then I don't see why they say they were no good.
69 ships sunk for just 2 subs lost means they were pretty effective. I would have cancelled building CV and BB and just built submarines.