Rising Sun or Shooting Star? Grotius-san (J.) vs. Cap_&_Gown (A.)

[Grotius]

1 January 1942: As the New Year dawns, this scenario is ten weeks from its conclusion, and the major strategic question for me remains: Can I take Singapore and siege Manila simultaneously, or should I put all my ground troops in Singapore first?

Right now I have around 130,000 troops at or near Malacca, plus another 70 or 80,000 on the way down the rail line. I can rustle up another 80,000 from Saigon and Taan, though that will take a couple more weeks. So I have 200,000 on the scene within a week, and another 80K on the scene within two weeks. Will that be enough? He has 50,000 at Malacca and another 60,000 at Singapore. Because I foolishly failed to bomb Singapore consistently, he's had time to build forts there.

If it's not going to be enough, then I'll have to move my 60,000 in Hong Kong plus two divisions in the Philippoines to Malaya. Should I do that now? I'm really not sure what to do, having never done the siege of Singapore before.

In Malaya, my main force is resting in preparation for another assault on Malacca. I am toying with ideas about cutting off his troops there, but most of them are borderline gamey, so I probably won't pursue them.

Today featured a quieter day of combat, but I was still busy. My troops unloaded at Jolo, which is empty, and at another empty small island in the central Philippines. Meanwhile I plan shortly to oust the enemy from his couple remaining perches in the western Philippine Islands, Cebu Island and Iyole. After weeks of waiting, I finally have full Zero groups for my two CVLs, but I don't have much clue what to do with them: the obstacle to my success isn't his navy so much as his army at Singapore. Also, one of those Zero groups is pretty green; will putting them on Sweep missions over my own base train them?

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 01/01/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Brunei

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5074 troops, 19 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 1708 troops, 9 guns, 3 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Japanese ground losses:
16 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

[Grotius]

2 January 1942: I took Jolo and Ormoc unopposed today, except for a submarine attack at Jolo in which the Allied sub fired two duds at my AKs. My APs have already skedaddled; I've become a convert to the "load 'em shallow" school of thought, using 4x the transports needed, and more often than not I load and unload in one day. I've also been bombing Manila and Clark almost daily to prevent him from building forts there.

The conquest of Borneo, meanwhile, continues at its rather leisurely pace. I now have Kuching and Jolo, am about to take Brunei, and have designs on Tarakan and Balikpapan. But for the second day in the row, Cap's heroic base force held out at Brunei. Will the third time be the charm?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Brunei

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5157 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 1696 troops, 5 guns, 4 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Japanese ground losses:
25 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Allied ground losses:
69 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

[Grotius]

3 January 1942: Today I surprised Cap_and_Gown with an airdrop behind his lines, into the empty base of Johore Bhatu, cutting off his 45,000 men at Malacca and eliminating the fortresses at Johore Bhatu. I also dropped on Mersing, expecting to find it empty, and was surprised by 10,000 troops there.

I'm pleased with this move, but I'm inclined NOT to use it to force the surrender of his 45,000 troops. I'm troubled by a game system that allows me to kill/imprison 45K troops by airdropping 1000 troops behind his lines. Mind you, my goal all along has been to cut off this force of his, but I'd rather have done so with a full division or so. For this reason, I've refrained from sub-transport of a few squads to cut him off up to now, even though I've had multiple opportunities to do so.

So I'm tentatively planning to stand down in Malacca to allow him to escape south. He's defended Malaya well, and I'd hate to win by a too-easy airdrop.

In other news, Brunei finally fell, and my airbase at Jolo is up and running. The noose is tightening around Borneo.

Here is a shot of Malaya. As you can see, I now own Johore Bhatu, south of his 45,000 troops at Malacca.

[Grotius]

4 January 1942: Well, Cap insists that I don't stand my guys down, so I attacked in Malacca after all. I used a Deliberate Attack, which attained 2:1 odds and reduced the fort to 2. Meanwhile he ejected me from Mersing, but I still hold Johore Bhatu and, now, the rail hex north of it -- though not for long. My little paratroop regiment won't last long against the inevitable relief force that is surely surging north from Singapore as we speak.

So I have him temporarily surrounded in Malacca -- perhaps for two or three turns, four tops. My troops are healthy enough either to Shock Attack or Deliberate Attack this turn, with fort level 2. I'm not sure which to try. I know Shock Attack can reduce forts by as much as 3, whereas Deliberate is limited to 1; and that Shock is in some way riskier. But I confess after all this time playing UV and WITP, I *still* don't have a clear sense of the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the two. A Shock Attack might be more likely to win now, but if it goes bad, will I lose any further opportunity to seal the deal? Would a Deliberate Attack give me more chops at the apple?

Here's a look at today's situation on Malaya.

[Grotius]

5 January 1942: I've worn Malacca down to a size 1 fort with Deliberate Attacks, so the time has come for a Shock Attack before he relieves his troops there. I forgot about the Pursuit rule, the use of which has allowed Cap to get his troops to Johore Bhatu a turn before I thought he'd be there. Still, I think I have this one remaining turn (maybe two) in which his guys at Malacca are still surrounded, since I own the rail hex between Malacca and Johore Bhatu.

Cap thinks our whole game comes down to this upcoming attack, but I'm not sure I'd go that far. To be sure, I'd very much like to eliminate these 50,000 troops now rather than see them escape to Singapore, where I'll have to fight them again with another 70,000 of their comrades. On the other hand, if necessary I can put 350,000 or more troops on the ground at Singapore, so my theory is that one way or another, he should lose this huge force he's committed to the defense of Singapore.

Which brings up a point about this scenario: Cap and I both agree that the incentives are distorted here. Our war ends in two months. Normally, I don't have any set deadline for taking Singapore. And normally, the Allies might consider evacuating some of the troops there to fight another day rather than having a Last Stand. This scenario has been a great learning tool for me -- I've never played the IJN at war-start before -- but the next time I go through all the work of planning these early-war operations, I think I'll want to play past March.

Anyway, here's a look at Malaya. Time is running out for me to kill off the enemy units at Malacca while they're still surrounded -- before the enemy relieves them from the south.

[Grotius]

6 January 1942: I captured Malacca today, and because I still had 1000-odd paratroopers in the two hexes south of Malacca, his 50,000 troops in Malacca all surrendered. Cap_and_Gown e-mailed me to say he'd like to resign, which is fine with me, but I regard it more as a draw. I still had a lot of territory to take in just 9 remaining weeks.

I feel a bit guilty about cutting off 50,000 troops with a simple paradrop of 1000 units. I did refrain from sub-transport invasions of the rail hexes south of Malacca. And I offered to stand down in Malacca to let him escape, because I'd have been happy simply with the destruction of the forts in Johore Bhatu (which was accomplished by my unopposed paradrop there.) But Cap, to his credit, thought it best that I just press my advantage and attack; so I did.

Incidentally, this was actually the second paradrop I tried. The first was a comical drop onto Hong Kong during the siege there, just because I wanted to see how paratroopers worked.

Anyway, congratulations to Cap_and_Gown on a tenacious defense! He was a good sport about all this, given that this scenario is probably not that much fun for the Allied player. And for Japan, while it's fun to keep taking bases, it's also a ton of work: I felt like I was creating and loading 15 task forces every turn.

So thanks to Cap for a good game. I learned a lot from it.

[LittleJoe]

Nice AAR, you two should try and go at it on Scenario 15, less time restrictions [:D]