Tristanjohn vs ChezDaJez: Lemur's Scen 15

[Tristanjohn]

Allied intelligence officials said yesterday that intercepts of Japanese radio traffic revealed that tanker Nissyo Maru sank somewhere north of Rabaul.

[Tristanjohn]

20 May 1942

Military authorities said that after yesterday's bombing attacks from Derby and Wyndham the airfields at Koepang have been completely closed and that the port is approaching a state of ruin.

[Tristanjohn]

The latest enemy casualty at Koepang was the freighter Nanko Maru, which was hit several times in the attack before blowing up at anchor.

[Tristanjohn]

In the Bay of Bengal, HMS Encounter was sunk by an enemy submarine's torpedoes just off the harbor mouth of Akyab. There was no word on the list of survivors.

[Tristanjohn]

21 May 1942

Ten turns ago I did a short recap and posted the game summary from the Intelligence screen. I thought I'd update that report after yesterday's action as it's pretty clear now this game has rapidly reached the point where the Allies have "turned the corner."

Koepang airfield on Timor Island is closed and will remain closed, with its port not far behind. The Allies use this base for virtual target practice, a kind of training exercise.

Rabaul airfield has been essentially evacuated by the Japanese. This is because B-17s from Port Moresby (currently 7-level airfield) bomb it every night from 6,000 feet, and any planes the Japanese player parks there will be immediately subject to destruction. Steve does maintain a unit of Zeroes at the base, probably out of the fear that if he did not my B-17s would come during daylight hours instead. And of course they definitely would! [:D] The trouble with that thinking, however, is that over the course of time some of those Zeroes (which do not fly CAP) will be caught on the ground. Meanwhile, it's just a matter of time before I get enough B-17s into Port Moresby to close the Rabaul airfield complex outright and for once and for all. I imagine this will happen sometime within the next month or so, call it the end of June.

The hands of the Japanese are tied, and they're damned if they and damned if they don't with respect to Rabaul. On the one hand, Steve probably feels the need to keep Rabaul as a stop against an easy Allied movement into either the eastern coast area of Papua New Guinea and/or an invasion of the lower Solomon Islands. On the other hand, what good is Rabaul as this "stop" if it is not effectively serviceable for his bombers? The answer is: no use at all.

So, Steve has a problem to solve.

The only two reasonable solutions which occur to me are 1) somehow reduce Port Moresby as a viable platform for those Forts or 2) give up the ghost and leave Rabaul to its eventual and inevitable fate.

Should Steve choose to resolve his dilemma via the former option his prospects are bleak indeed. Twenty turns ago I estimated it would require an invasion force of no less than six-plus divisions to entertain any hope whatsoever of storming Port Moresby. And that would be six-plus divisions on the shore and ready to fight, with their supply guaranteed. So, he'd have to bring more, probably much more, because the approaches to Port Morseby by sea are covered out to a distance of the B-17s range, then as his invasion armada drew closer in it would come under the purview of B-25s and Marauders, and finally it would draw within the destructive arc of my SBDs.

It is not difficult to imagine that whatever number of transports he starts out with will be greatly reduced along the way, along with everything they carry.

But it gets worse yet for Steve, for today it would require more than six-plus divisions, as Port Moresby has been subsequently reinforced over the past 20 days, since that prior assessment. So, option one just isn't on the cards. I won't divulge all the details because I'm still playing this game, afterall, but the plain truth is the aftermath of any such attack by the Japanese would resemble a slaughterhouse, and it wouldn't be the Allies who were mostly licking their wounds.

Option two: option two doesn't look so attractive, either. The Japanese must draw the line somewhere, don't they? And the Solomon/New Britain archipelagoes seem like a natural choice after a glance at the map. Well, yes, but only if that line can be either reasonably defended in force, or, better still, used as collective base from which a kind of "stand-off" defense might be prosecuted. But that strategy would require access to multiple 4-level airfields which could not be systematically closed by long-range heavy bombers. Rabaul is the best airfield in that region, indeed, it would serve as the linchpin of any such defense, and it has already been closed. Lunga just worked its way up to a 3-level airfield either yesterday or the day before, I forget now, and so it'll be awhile before that's of any real use. And if you want to know, even should I, as the Allies, decide to move in that direction, I'd most likely postpone such an initiative until the Lunga airfield had already been so developed, which would agreeably grease my invasion skids, as then I could immediatley pile in a couple hundred fighters and bombers to help protect the rapid build-up of that place.

The Shortlands would be another possibility, Kavieng to the north of Rabaul another one still, etc. But when it all boils down, if the Japanese cannot keep the Rabaul terminal open for regular flight schedules then it's fantasy for them to believe that the New Britain/Solomons line might be of much use in terms of proactive defense, and at best equally unlikely to be held in a pinch.

So what can the Japanese do?

I'm not sure. I haven't played the Japanese side of the board yet. From what I've seen of this game thus far, though, I'd say it's wickedly out of balance in favor of the Allies, which undoubtedly is why the Allies in the game before us now enjoy such a superior position just halfway through the spring of 1942. The main reason for this is because the air model is so bloody. That's the short answer, and I guess I'll leave that there. It ought to be simple enough to figure out.

Well, all right, I'll break down. Let's tear a page from Mogami's book and do the "simple" math together, which spins merrily in this case around: 1) the respective pilot pools, where's it's no contest at all; 2) the fact the Allies enjoy a wealth of excellent medium bombers and a crazy game surplus of heavies, while the Japanese struggle along with a relative handful of mediocre mediums (for level-bombing purposes--on naval-attack missions the Bettys/Nells reign surpeme) and no heavies in their inventory at all; finally, 3) level bombing of naval assets has been modeled atrociously like everything else, and so it's too bloody like everything else, which means the Japanese are bound to lose more of their assets and at a faster rate than will the Allies. Meanwhile, the Allies keep getting stronger, due to reinforcements, vis-a-vis the Japanese. This is a game of viscious circles in which only the Allies can afford to play.

Back to what the Japanese can do. What can they do? Surrender, I guess. [:D]

Seriously, while the Japanese are not exactly dead in the water yet, they're slip-sliding in that direction fast.

Below is the game summary from the Intelligence screen updated through 21 May 1942. The summary I posted ten days ago can be found toward the top of page 8 of this thread, if you want to compare things for yourself.

A short analysis.

On 11 May 1942 the Japanese enjoyed a VP lead of 15343:6829, giving a ratio of 2.26:1 (rounded up). The new VP total comes out as 15674:7313 for a VP ratio of 2.14:1. In other words, the Japanese are beginning to go backward.

The other key indicator on the summary is the total points for bases owned.

Ten days ago the Japanese held 268 bases for a total of 3,006 points, whereas today they hold 269 for 3,041 points. The Allies twenty days ago held 180 bases worth 3,505 points. Now they own just 179 bases, one fewer, yet these fewer bases are actually worth 3,729 points, a net increase of 224 points. This is because the Allies are [developing their base assets faster than the Japanese can, in fact so much faster than the Japanese that even with a loss of net bases owned since the last report, over the interim the ratio of base points has improved for the Allies from 1.17:1 to 1.23:1 (rounded up). This represents a positive shift of five percent.

You can go over the respective reports and see that in each and every category the Allies are on the upswing while the Japanese are on the downswing. Straight on through the entire report, item by item.

Conclusion: effectively the game's ultimate conclusion is no longer in doubt, because from here on out the Allies will just get stronger and stronger, meanwhile the Japanese shall continue lose the war of attrition that is currently being waged to their detriment. We can (and will) look at the summary another month down the line, and it's for sure and certain that the game trend shown in that report will even more clearly pronounce the trend which is clearly indicated in the 21 May 1942 summary.

[Tristanjohn]

The Allies yesterday continued to flatten what remains of the facility of Koepang harbor. Pilots after the mission said the place looks like a moonscape. "I wouldn't live there, I can tell you that," said one of the airmen.

[Tristanjohn]

A large force of Japanese fighters and bombers arrived menacingly over Akyab yesterday, but when the smoke had cleared it was clear they were a thoroughly beaten enemy.

[Tristanjohn]

There was sufficient aircover over this Burmese port city to intially stem the tide of enemy fighter escorts.

[Tristanjohn]

Like sharks in a feeding frenzy, the Allied fighters then dove in, without mercy, on the bombers.

[Tristanjohn]

And they didn't let up until there was no one left to shoot.

[Tristanjohn]

Officials said the effects of this attack were negligible. Enemy casualties were severe.

[ChezDaJez]

The biggest problem in regards to Rabaul is making sure it gets supplies. Right now I'm able to fly some in plus send the occasional ship. Rabaual was just heavily reinforced with troops and the Allies will find it nearly as difficult a nut to crack as I would Port Moresby. The good news is that if and when Tris begins to move towards Rabaul, my bombers in Truk are all at full strength and training mightily. His carriers will definitely need to participate to make any headway and that puts them at great risk. I may lose alot of bombers but a US carrier or two on the bottom will certainly do wonders for the homefolk. And if I need to, I just may bring KB around to "finish" the job.

The aircraft in Rabaul have largely been withdrawn for conservation and training. I didn't want to suffer the nitpicking loss of a couple of aircraft every night. The night attacks by his B-17s have not damaged the field or the port at all, even when they bombed from 1000'. I brought in a lot of AAA and Tris has gone to 6000' as I'm sure the AAA, while not shooting any down, was beginning to attrite attack strength through damage.

Speaking of Port Moresby, it became obvious some time ago that I had made a mistake by not invading it soon after securing Rabaul. I never had the intention of invading PM for the start. I figured I could keep it suppressed well enough with my airpower that Tris wouldn't want to risk any major air assets. Unfortunately, I allowed the Allies to build up the air strength there and when I tried to do something about that, my hat, along with my a$$, was handed to me on a spear. Tris didn't even have the decency to present them on a platter[:'(].

Tris seems to be under the impression that my Bettys and Nells need level 4 airfields to operate from. That's only true if I want to reduce operational losses. Remember, the little harrassing strike on Lungaville about 2 weeks ago (game time)? Those were Nells from a level 2 airfield. If you come, you will need to close every airfield within Betty range, regardless of its size, not just Rabaul or Guadalcanal and there is a lot of them. Rabaul may currently be the best but don't count on that by the time you get there.

The way I see it, the Allies have basically three choices to start an offensive. I won't mention any offensive through CBI as Tris doesn't have sufficient troops or long-range fighters in large enough numbers to protect transports and it will take forever to advance throught the jungles of Burma. My airpower has been hurt there but they would still be available in large numbers. My production is nearly outpacing my need at this point (except for trained pilots- but untrained, they can't do much worse than the trained ones are right now. What was the loss rate at Rangoon? 60+ experienced fighters engage 27 Hurricanes and 9 I-16cs. I lose 56 Oscars and Zeros for 1 lousy Hurricane! The air model is whacked!

The first is through the Central Pacific. Certainly the quickest route to Japan and one of the harder avenues to defend, but it is not without its perils. The quickest route to Japan also means the quickest route FROM Japan so reinforcements can be brought in quicker. In addition, my forces have not just been basking in the sun. Many installations, small and large, have been "bucked" up on defense with fortifications and large BF concentrations so that I can move aircraft here and there. The keys to the Central Pacific revolve around two island groups, Tarawa and Kwajalein. Either island requires US carriers to neutralize the IJN airpower and there is a lot of it to neutralize.

The second involves an offensive through the Coral Sea towards Rabaul and/or Lunga. Neither are sleepy little towns any more. Tris will need to bring plenty of troops to capture either. That means plenty of transports and that means plenty of targets. Who's will protect his transports? Ah, his CVs. Again, more targets and they can't defend everything at once. Sooner or later his CAP will be worn down from the sheer number of attackers. Then factor in KB. Tris won't know where they will come from nor how many there will be. Not to mention Mini-KB. At last count, I had a total of 12 carriers of all types available, 6 of them fleet carriers. So even without much LBA, any invasion would still be a dicey (and expensive) operation.

And last there is the SRA. Probably, the easiest of the three in regards to Allied air basing. However, surprise would be minimal and the Southern Army troop allocations are huge with reinforcements from the home islands tripping over themselves now. Not to mention that nearly every base has substantial fortifications and plenty of large airfields to base Bets and Nells in large groups, not to mention the slight malaria problem that impacts any offense through here. I highly doubt that Tris would risk his carriers here as there are way too many airfields for him to avoid effective counter strikes, even from Sonias, Marys and Anns.

Now, Tris could try a combination of offensives. This would stretch the IJN fleet a bit but would also dilute his ability to protect his ships. Plus he would need far more troops and transports, not to mention more AKs. If he chose to come through CentPac and the Coral Sea simultaneously, similar to what the Allies did IRL, but they were able to do that because KB was no longer a threat. Here it is and its full weight could be thrown against one offensive or the other, almost gauranteeing tremendous losses to the one it strikes.

But we'll have to wait and see. Tris has been very patient building his forces and keeping the CVs out of harms way so far. But I think his patience is nearing its end.

CHez

[ChezDaJez]

What can they do? Surrender, I guess.

His Royal Highness, the Emporer, has indicated that he is more than willing to discuss the terms of your surrender!

He states that your surrender documents can be signed in the Oval Office just as soon as he chooses its new decor.

Chez

[Tristanjohn]

27 May 1942

Koepang on Timor Island was hit again yesterday by bombers out of Wyndham, targetting what remains of the port facility there.

[Tristanjohn]

Military authorities in Townsville, Australia, said yesterday that the bombing campaign to reduce the port of Rabaul is just beginning to get into full swing. "We've put more B-17s on line at Port Moresby," an air official said, "and within the next week another bomber group is slated to join in Rabaul's destruction."

[Tristanjohn]

Last night's raid on the New Britain port town was reported to be successful. The airfield was potted and a number of enemy planes were said to be destroyed.

[Tristanjohn]

28 May 1942

The air campaign against Rabaul continues to pick up steam. Officials yesterday released figures of last night's attack, showing definite improvement in results all around.

[Tristanjohn]

29 May 1942

There was no let up last night for Rabaul, as she once again received the attentions of 5th Air Force B-17 bombers flying out of Port Moresby. Officials said that Koepang on Timor Island also continued to receive similar treatment during daylight hours.

[Tristanjohn]

31 May 1942

The 5th Air Force in Port Moresby has assaulted Rabaul for the first time in strength during daylight hours. It was reported yesterday that going on 175 B-17s participated in the raid.

[Tristanjohn]

"We're pleased with the results," said one official, "the boys really plastered the place."