Unfreezing Analysis:Tactical Brilliance, or Pandoras box?

[ratprince]

The following is Part II in a series of analyses of GGWAW. While not by any means scientific or without debate, these essays are my attempt to help out the new gamer or add some interesting topics to discuss. Gary Grigsby’s game World at War is, in my opinion, a genre defining game that blends all of the components of global warfare into a relatively seamless and streamlined experience. Hopefully, if you are reading these forum postings and yet to be an owner and player of the game, this will inspire you to get your copy today!

On to the discourse…

“Un-Freezing” Russia; Tactical brilliance or Pandora’s box?

World War II erupted in September of 1939. Every year thereafter saw some new declaration of war until the world was completely engulfed in the conflagration. This dissertation is an attempt to analyze the cost-benefit of declarations of war upon politically frozen nations, namely, the Soviet Union. This analysis is taken from the point of view of the Axis (Germany), as they are the only nations “allowed” to declare war per se.

Initially one might say that to follow a historical approach would be the least effective as the result was ultimate destruction of the Axis. While this may a bit presumptuous, I think it is not without merit. The Axis, in particular Germany, has the luxury of deciding upon the time and location of any declaration of war on the Soviet Union. Likewise, Japan has the same power of war on the U.S. The Axis must use this power of engagement to the utmost effect. While the surprise effect is powerful, that should not be the deciding factor in when and where to attack. A few extra units damaged or destroyed in the long run is not worth a premature declaration.

Germany:

Germany has the painful decision of when to plow headlong into Russia. If they do not make the decision, Stalin will choose it for them. This being said, the German player must spend the time between the war’s beginning and Winter ’43 preparing for this conflict. Ultimately, all else is merely a prelude to “Barbarosa.” This gives the German player eleven (11) turns maximum to plan the attack on Russia. After this point, the Soviet Union is free to attack and completely unfrozen politically.

In making the decision when to attack the Soviet Union, several factors must be weighed. The German player must have the units available to fight, they must be on the border, the tech level must be significantly ahead in a couple areas, supplies must be ready and numerous, air power must be overwhelming, Europe’s borders must be secure against the allies, resources must be sufficient for long term operations and space must be ready in the production queue for damaged units that will be heading to factories in large quantities. All of these must be considered before unleashing the fury onto Russia.

This first analysis is a look at the production points “cost” for attacking Russia earlier than Winter 1943.

The Soviet Union has a total of 13 factories in the ’40 campaign. These 13 factories will produce at x2 mulitplier from the beginning of the campaign until Winter ’42 at which time they kick up to x3 multiplier. The following Production Points are what the S.U. will be able to churn out over that time unmolested.

(13 factories x 2 = 26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Wi ’42 = 7 seasons) = 182 pps
(13 factories x 3 = 39 pps per season) x (Wi ’42 – Wi ’43 = 4 seasons) = 156 pps
So, if left to their own devices until the time when Russia can declare war, they will have produced (assuming resource availability) 338 pps.

If Germany chooses to attack Russia in a historical time frame, lets say Su ’41, then the numbers look like this: (assuming Kiev, kharkov and Belorussia all fall immediately and the other historical factories remain)

(13 factories x 2 =26 pps per season) x (Su ’40 – Su ’41 = 4 seasons) = 104 pps
(10 factories x 3 = 30 pps per seson) x (Su ’41 – Wi ’43 = 7 seasons) = 210 pps
So, with an early attack, for the same time period, the Soviet Union would net (approx.) 314 pps in the same amount of seasons. This is a net loss for the Soviets of (approx.) 24 production points.

As this illustration demonstrates, the loss of one or more factories for the Soviet Union can hamper production drastically. Once at the x3 modifier, each factory lost is THREE production points. In the above example, this is conservative. If Gorki, Rostov or Leningrad fall as well, then the cumulative effect is greater.

So…is 24 pps worth invading Russia in Summer 1941? To answer this requires some further analysis.

The assumption in the “invasion ‘41” scenario is that at the very least Kiev, Kharkov and Belorussia fall to the German onslaught. If this does NOT occur, then the net effect would probably be in the Russian favor to be invaded (oddly enough). Another factor that must be considered is the available resources for the “accelerated” factories. The Soviet Union has potentially 32 resource centers to pull from. Six of these are within rapid striking distance for Germany. If these six are lost or even damaged and unable to be repaired, then the potential production per turn for the Soviets drops to 26 maximum. In other words, the factories multiplied may be there for use, but no resources are available to manufacture!

Another scenario is a “catastrophic” invasion for Russia where Kiev, Kharkov, Belorussia AND Leningrad fall in the first turn of the invasion. This not only knocks the SU down another factory, but also releases the Finns for duty with the Fuhrer. For the Germans, this is of highly useful effect. Those five infantry and fighter are quickly useful to capture Karelia and thus threaten the lend lease route for the Western Allies to send supplies to the embattled Russia.

Ultimately, the decision to open up the war in Russia is not one to be taken lightly. Once the German player does, all forces and energy of the nation must be directed at the Soviets. Limited operations intended to forestall a Western Allies invasion are all that should be attempted elsewhere. To fight in Russia AND Africa or other locales is tantamount to suicide for the German player. Invading Russia early has the potential to be devastatingly successful. Waiting to invade has the potential to be decisively unsuccessful. Based on the production “curve” and cumulative effect of overwhelming economic might, In my opinion, a rapid 1940 or 1941 invasion would be best. Use misdirection and cunning to make the Allies shift troops to Africa, North Atlantic and elsewhere. Then, when they have units in the Russian factories on the front line, smash into them with all the ferocity you can manage. Wreck rail lines, Para drop into empty second line regions and in general do as much damage as you can. The first winter after the invasion, DO NOT ATTACK, but rather form a line and prepare to be hit. Immediately after the Winter turn, go for the jugular. Do everything in Germany’s power to decapitate Russia. Roll over undefended resources and factories – DON’T REBUILD YET. Keep steamrolling. Attack and destroy stacks of units, don’t be mislead into Moscow. They don’t surrender if it falls. Kill all the Russian forces, that is the only 100% victory. Use heavy bombers to airdrop supplies instead of repairing rail lines, saves on resources. Repair just one main rail line up through central Russia. Adjacent areas can suck supplies off this route. In the end, attack, surround and destroy Soviet units at all costs. If you can surround an out of supply army, then bypass it and keep going (just make sure they won’t be able to supply it somehow!). You can come back and mop up later.

While this analysis, by the simple fact that the game takes strange twists and turns, cannot be exacting, it can be a good basis to plan a strategy. The war is ever fluid and things pop up that need attention, however (this is a big however!) You cannot be distracted from your “overall grand strategic plan” that you implemented turn one. Stay the course with your initial strategy and keep plodding ahead. If the enemy causes you to switch goals mid stream, then they have already won…..

I will attempt to have a similar veined article on Japan soon. Hope that this will spur some discussion! (polite, civil, non-biased discussions of course!) [;)]
Good luck!

Mike McMann

[Badbonez]

Not enough games, Mike? [:'(]

[tai4ji2x]

ORIGINAL: mike mcmann

World War II erupted in September of 1939.

in europe, that is... meanwhile about 1/5th of humanity, in the continent of asia, was already engulfed in conflict...

eh, just a pet peeve of mine. not trying to derail your topic [:'(]

[ratprince]

hahaha! [:D]

Actually, school is pretty much done for and my summer break is coming! (a break from the kids, or the kids break from me, not sure!)

Just had some spare time laying around and thought I would use it up! Eight PBEM is where I stand now....had some free time! [;)]

hehe!

Later Badbonez!

Mike

[ratprince]

tai4ji2x,

(wow, that is difficult to type![;)])

I beg your fogiveness, sincerely. I do, since my fascination is Europe, tend to neglect the eastern conflict as it were. I stand corrected. Would, say, 1931 be a better time frame to start from ?

And no worries on derailing! My intent is to start interesting discussions where we can all learn something (or be reminded of!)

Thanks tai! (sorry for the shortening of the name...)

Later

Mike

[tai4ji2x]

no problem, mike. i understand.

what i don't understand, is how you managed to get eight PBEM's going!!! [X(] [&o]

[CharonJr]

Nice analysis (I have been thinking about something similar, but simply lack the time at the moment).

But I think you should include the US production modifiers going up from 1 to 2 as well.

Additionally what can Russia/Germany achieve on the tech side prior to Barbarossa is fairly important as well IMO.

We have to keep in mind that Germany is able to slightly outproduce the SU (32-34 PP after 2 turns usually) but since it has to face the WAllies as well, it depends on the WAllies' actions if this is a real benefit. And since only the "German" factories will get the x3 production modifier due to an attack on the SU she has "less to gain" from an half-hearted attack than the SU who gets x3 modifiers for all her factories.

Another important factor is Japan (who's own - even if limited - attack on the SU is very important IMO). So basically Japanese production/tech would have to be considered as well.

German tech'd up tactical bombers/artillery/armor might be a decisive factor when it comes to the possible gains during the initial attack phase. And as you said the deeper the Germans are able to penetrate into Russia (mainly the more ressources/factories they are able to "destroy" on the first turn with the additional benefit of having less militia to face) the bleaker it will look for the SU.

I am fairly certain that there must be a "sweetspot" for a German attack somewhere. IMO the sweetspot would mean the following things (which you mainly described already):

- Germany has the technological edge in land warfare, idealy just tech'd up the units considered key for the attack (surely tanks, maybe artillery and/or tactical bombers)

- Germany has enough supplies to keep the offensive rolling (including supplies to repair a railroad "artery" through Russia)

- Germany has amassed enough forces to take out Kiev, Kharkov and Belorussia, being able to take Leningrad would be a welcome bonus (I don't have a map here at the moment, but IIRC no other ressource centers/factories are in range for Germany during the first attack). Additionally German forces should be in position to continue to lay waste to the Soviet production capability on the next turn

- Germany has secured its factories and the ressource center needed to fuel the factories good enough vs. WAllies or weakenend the WAllies enough to feel secure

The interesting thing is that the WAllies largely influence when that sweetspot can be reached. Due to this in my opinion it is the WAllies' job to keep as many forces as possible off the Russian border, deny as many supplies/ressources as possible to Germany, fill the production slots with as many damaged units as possible and damage German ressources/factories whenever possible. In addition send land-lease to China and the SU in order to enable them the harras their adversaries and concentrate on force-buildup and raising tech.

This will surely mean that the US will be behind in new troops, but IMO the war is ultimately decided in Europe and not in the Pacific. And the sooner the SU is able to stop the German assault, the weaker the Axis will be in the long run. With its production modifier being frozen at x3 I doubt that Japan will ever be in a position to seriously challenge the Allies when Germany is contained.

CharonJr

Edit: Forgot to mention Germany being safe as an important point