7th dec Pearl harbour - any sense in attack?

[Sneer]

Does anybody see any sense in attacking PH on Dec 7th????[8|]

under 1.5 efficiency of this attack seems to be even lower then in 1.4
only 1 (mostly) or seldom 2 sqns of Kates attack with torpedos
with averaged torp hits 5-10
with lowered chances of Mag exlosions 800kg it causes
average result of port attack is somewhere below and close to 1 BB sunk on dec7th with 2-4 moderately or heavy damaged. very often neither BB is sunk

maybe it is better to leave BBs just to meet them with KB in open sees and have opportunity to sink them
cost of just damaging few BBs in planes is too high

does anybody ever reached 7dec port attack resolution close to what is given in scenario starting at 8 Dec?

and yes there is no statistics attached.
I just run 1 st turn about 10 times or more looking for optimal Val/Kates attack pattern

looks like patching this game unbalanced PH initial strike

[Blackwatch_it]

Here are the results of the first attack against Peal in my PBEM against Tom Hunter:

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 64
D3A Val x 126
B5N Kate x 116

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4
P-26A x 6
P-36A Mohawk x 11
P-40B Tomahawk x 33

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged
D3A Val: 7 destroyed, 36 damaged
B5N Kate: 9 destroyed, 31 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
P-26A: 6 destroyed
P-36A Mohawk: 10 destroyed
P-40B Tomahawk: 36 destroyed
B-18A Bolo: 7 destroyed
PBY Catalina: 12 destroyed
A-20B Boston: 2 destroyed
B-17E Fortress: 2 destroyed
SBD Dauntless: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
PC Tiger, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Rail, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Torpedo hits 3, on fire
DD Downes, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 3, on fire
BB California, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
CA New Orleans, Torpedo hits 1
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CL Phoenix, Torpedo hits 1
AO Neosho, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Raleigh, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
AVD Thornton, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DMS Perry, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Bagley, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AK Hirondelle, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Schley, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AV Tangier, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Three BBs and some minor ship sunk after this attack.
All the Kate groups were set to port attack and the Vals to airfield attack.

I sent KB again on turn two and the second attack results are these:

KB second day attack:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 36
D3A Val x 96
B5N Kate x 120

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 2
P-26A x 3
P-36A Mohawk x 6
P-40B Tomahawk x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A Val: 3 destroyed, 31 damaged
B5N Kate: 5 destroyed, 24 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
P-26A: 3 destroyed
P-36A Mohawk: 3 destroyed, 1 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 1 destroyed
B-18A Bolo: 1 destroyed
PBY Catalina: 4 destroyed
SBD Dauntless: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Tennessee, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DM Gamble, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AV Wright, Torpedo hits 1
DD Helm, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Detroit, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Case, Bomb hits 1, on fire


Allied ground losses:
138 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Airbase hits 17
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 58
Port hits 15
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 1

The final result is seven BBs sunk. Note also how the CAP strenght is reduced.

I think that Pearl is still the best target for KB day one strike.

[Sneer]

for me it is 6th sigma rule
never
never
seen that
but will keep trying[:)]

[CapAndGown]

This issue brings up an interesting point.

SEM, among others, argues that PH was, to quote, "a strategic imbecility." With the battle line sunk in PH the US was forced to adopt the new philosophy of naval warfare and focus on it carriers. The Japanese, OTOH, were still caught between two chairs, with battleship admirals in charge of the fleet and its strategic imagination, but having achieved its major victories with aircraft carriers. It was not until after Midway, and actually probably not until after the death of Yamamoto, that the Japanese finally decided that the aircraft carrier was the real queen of naval warfare. If the Americans had not lost their battle line at PH they might have implemented a version of the orange plan and sortied into the western pacific only to see their BBs sunk in a 6000 fathom deep rather the mud of PH.

Moreover, Japan's only hope was for a negotiated settlement. This meant causing the allies to lose the will to fight. But after PH there was no chance of that at all. If they had only declared war on Britain and the Netherlands who's to say how long it would have taken the U.S. to get involved. Perhaps not long. But FDR would have had to work at selling the war to his isolationist countrymen. And if the war had not gone well and dragged on, who's to say that a negotiated settlement (Japan's only hope) would not have been reached?

So historically, the PH raid may very well have been a big mistake. As far as I can tell, it accomplished little except making American enraged.

In the game, however, none of these larger considerations apply. There is no chance of a negotiated settlement. The game will go on to 1946 if both players are determined. And our hindsight makes all us gamers carrier fanboys from the get go. We are not stuck with dreams about the overwhelming might of the battle line.

So does PH make sense in the game when it may not have made sense historically? It would seem that over and over the issue of hindsight keeps coming up as an absolute limit on how historical this game can be.

[Grotius]

It would seem that over and over the issue of hindsight keeps coming up as an absolute limit on how historical this game can be.

Well said, Cap.

[Vorsteher]

Does anybody see any sense in attacking PH on Dec 7th????

under 1.5 efficiency of this attack seems to be even lower then in 1.4

Now, you see ,why I wanted the scenario 16[:D]

V.

[Blackwatch_it]

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

In the game, however, none of these larger considerations apply. There is no chance of a negotiated settlement. The game will go on to 1946 if both players are determined. And our hindsight makes all us gamers carrier fanboys from the get go. We are not stuck with dreams about the overwhelming might of the battle line.

So does PH make sense in the game when it may not have made sense historically? It would seem that over and over the issue of hindsight keeps coming up as an absolute limit on how historical this game can be.

I can't find a better use for KB on Dec 7. Going for Manila or Singapore would result in a still minor damage inflicted to the Allies.
The old BBs could make a lot of damage to the Japanese invasion TFs. Better to have them out of the game.

[spence]

IMO the only chance Japan may have had to WIN in World War II may have been to simply attack the DEI/Malaya and hope that isolationist sentiment in the US would restrain Roosevelt (from direct combat involvement anyway - though he might have managed (perhaps) some sort of pseudo-war of the naval variety akin to that which was transpiring in the Atlantic (more or less (Rueben James) out of the public view).

Here's a proposal for some one to try to game including some house rules.
1) Japan free set up. First turn surprise is off. Japan may not attack U.S. bases or ships or units until the U.S. declares war on Japan unless U.S. ships or units are in a non-US base or TF. Japan may freely attack any UK, Australian, Indian, NZ, Commonwealth or Chinese base, unit or ship.
2) Japan may not attack Russia until the following bases have been occupied: Singapore, Pelambang, Soerabaja, and Rangoon.
3) By some yet to be determined randomizer the U.S. will enter the war. The U.S. may freely move air, naval, and land units to any base except except Malaya, India, DEI (more or less the European empires). The US may move forces to Australia/NZ. If the US moves additional ships or a/c to the Philippines the Japanese PLayer may declare war on the US.
Might be fun to see how it goes with the IJ Player looking over his shoulder for some time.

[Sneer]

I need alternate land war plan even more then PH result so I have no choice
But it is not ok
Single result is not important
expected values and its deviation counts
and average stays close to 1 BB sunk in my opinion
3 BB seems to be at 2-3 sigmas
I think I have done 30-40 openings by now and never seen results given by Blackwatch_it

BTW what was result after 1st day?

[Blackwatch_it]

Three BBs and some minor ships sunk .

[racndoc]

OK...here is another one....v1.5.....PBEM

[racndoc]

3 BBs and a CL sunk on the 1st attack. Then 2 days later, KB did a 2nd attack and killed the other 5 BBs. All the CAs and CLs are out of the war for the next 6 months except for 2. 40 torpedoes landed in the 1st attack!

[Captain Ed]

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

This issue brings up an interesting point.

SEM, among others, argues that PH was, to quote, "a strategic imbecility." With the battle line sunk in PH the US was forced to adopt the new philosophy of naval warfare and focus on it carriers. The Japanese, OTOH, were still caught between two chairs, with battleship admirals in charge of the fleet and its strategic imagination, but having achieved its major victories with aircraft carriers. It was not until after Midway, and actually probably not until after the death of Yamamoto, that the Japanese finally decided that the aircraft carrier was the real queen of naval warfare. If the Americans had not lost their battle line at PH they might have implemented a version of the orange plan and sortied into the western pacific only to see their BBs sunk in a 6000 fathom deep rather the mud of PH.

Moreover, Japan's only hope was for a negotiated settlement. This meant causing the allies to lose the will to fight. But after PH there was no chance of that at all. If they had only declared war on Britain and the Netherlands who's to say how long it would have taken the U.S. to get involved. Perhaps not long. But FDR would have had to work at selling the war to his isolationist countrymen. And if the war had not gone well and dragged on, who's to say that a negotiated settlement (Japan's only hope) would not have been reached?

So historically, the PH raid may very well have been a big mistake. As far as I can tell, it accomplished little except making American enraged.

In the game, however, none of these larger considerations apply. There is no chance of a negotiated settlement. The game will go on to 1946 if both players are determined. And our hindsight makes all us gamers carrier fanboys from the get go. We are not stuck with dreams about the overwhelming might of the battle line.

So does PH make sense in the game when it may not have made sense historically? It would seem that over and over the issue of hindsight keeps coming up as an absolute limit on how historical this game can be.

So this brings to mind an interesting house rule if Japan does not attack America only the Commonwealth and the Dutch then the Americans should not be allowed to strike at Japanese forces until such time as FDR can convince his countrymen it is time[:D][:D]

[Sneer]

One question
Japan targeted US CVs not battle line in PH
we know US CV are not there.
as well as Allied player move out all ships out of DEI because of Nell/Betty threat

Is this strategy valid under these conditions ?

[spence]

(in reply to Captain Ed)
I really think that an attack against only the Brits/Dutch would have offered the Japanese the best chance of WINNING winning. Carve out the necessary resource area in 6 months or so hoping that Roosevelt can't get Congress to declare war. Then on to finishing off China and maybe grabbing a slice of Siberia from the Russkis to round out the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
If Roosevelt had been faced with this situation it's really hard to figure any way that he could have manuevered Congress into making a DOW (assuming fairly easily that the "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" would not be incensed enough to do it straight away). Can't think of any particular war events (even in Europe) that would trigger US intervention either. But it wouldn't be any kind of a game if the US couldn't get into it somehow - preferably on its own schedule and in a place of its own choosing.
The Japanese Player would need to have 'ice water' (no maybe liquid nitrogen) running in his veins to leave the US athwart his supply lines while he tried to grab the SRA. (though to make it realistic some kind of enhancement of the US forces available early on might be necessary - I kinda think even with an intact battle fleet the US is pretty much a paper tiger in the beginning)
Could be an interesting situation to simulate/explore.

[Tom Hunter]

In simple game terms the Pearl attack is worth it because if you do the attack you convert some number of US BBs into victory points, if you don't do it those same ships will start sailing around converting Japanese units into victory points. Even if they do eventually get sunk they are unlikely to do less damage to Japan then they did at Pearl.

[Sneer]

it is not true
you earn 1-5 times 180 points in PH
expected value of this is close to 600
on the other hand similar amount of points is to be taken in DEI
most players withdraw Force Z and rest of ships off theater so low chance to sink them
also there is no use of US BB in 42 what's a diffrence wheather they stay in san Francisco ready or damaged ???
expected value is also 500-600 but deviation of result is much lower
also you are closer to the area which is really important to you
you can take wake and gilberts 3 months later
enemy still can't defend
I'm preparing 1st turn with alternate opening
damaging PH is not worth talking

[hexgod]

I think it all depends on your long term goals. I usually set out to invade Pearl Harbor in the first year. Trying to take it with no ships in the harbor is hard enough. Finding the whole US fleet there would make it impossible. I try to go for the throat, and attacking Pearl Harbor is the only thing that makes it a possibility to attack the US Main Land. Which is usually my goal, depnding on weither or not things go well in the first year...

[mc3744]

In my last game as Japan I decided to forget about the first strike on PH.
I'm going for the CVs (still searching [:'(]). I can always come to PH later.

The only way to get some good results (beside some good luck [;)]) is to run multiple strikes. I find that a bit gamey.
I did it myself and suffered it myself. I no longer like it.

Bottom line: it's a trade off between some points and some experienced pilots. I'm leaning towards keeping the good pilots [:)]

[Sneer]

I don't find attacks in Pi and Malaya and DEI as gamey - it is same or almost same time zone
In my opinion it is much closer to the definition of surprise then anything in the game as long as PH is included