Stopping the Juggernaut - Cruft vs Alikchi II (CHS)

Post descriptions of your brilliant successes and unfortunate demises.

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Captain Cruft
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Pakhoi

Post by Captain Cruft »

Pakhoi

Recon has confirmed that the Chinese have abandoned Pakhoi. As a result, after Hong Kong has fallen the Shanghai SNLF will be transported from Canton and landed at the empty port. I am still nervous about using the land route ...

I suppose if I was being a gamey-ass I could just leave the place as it is and use it as target practice for aerial and naval bombardment. However, my aim in this game is to get away from all that stuff. It is unsatisfying.
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Troop Movements

Post by Captain Cruft »

Troop Movements by Sea

In a sense this is what the game is all about. I thought it might be interesting to show how I do these things since most AARs seem focused on the combat side.

I like to plan out objectives well in advance. Also, another idiosyncracy - I never deliberately split up land units.

Anyway, here is most of what I currently have planned. All movements are pending due to a lack of suitable escorts and in some cases, APs. It feels like I have a bit less AP capacity in the CHS than in the stock scen.

Pacific

14th Base Force FROM Osaka TO Admiralty Islands VIA Truk
14th NLF FROM Osaka TO Admiralty Islands VIA Truk (** INVASION FORCE **)
24th NLF FROM Truk TO Kavieng (** INVASION FORCE **)
8th Base Force FROM Osaka TO Rabaul VIA Truk
8th NLF FROM Truk TO Rabaul (** INVASION FORCE **)
Maizuru 1st SNLF FROM Truk TO Rabaul (** INVASION FORCE **)
7th Naval Const Bn FROM Truk TO Rabaul (after Truk gets to size 9 port)
4th Fleet FROM Truk TO Saipan (Southeast Fleet stays in Truk)
5th Base Force FROM Tokyo TO Saipan
52nd Nav Gsn FROM Kwajalein TO Nauru Island (** INVASION FORCE **)
53rd Nav Gsn FROM Kwajalein TO Tarawa (** INVASION FORCE **)
61st Nav Gsn FROM Kwajalein TO Majuro

Philippines

56th Brigade FROM Palau TO Davao (** INVASION FORCE **)
30th Special Base Force FROM Palau TO Davao

DEI

21st, 22nd & 23rd NLFs FROM Palau TO Amboina (** INVASION FORCE **)

Borneo
35th Brigade FROM Camranh Bay TO Kuching (** INVASION FORCE **)
22nd Air Flotilla FROM Saigon TO Kuching
22nd Aviation Unit FROM Saigon TO Kuching
Yokusuka 2nd SNLF FROM Camranh Bay TO Brunei (** INVASION FORCE **)
28th NLF FROM Camranh Bay TO Miri (** INVASION FORCE **)
11th NLF FROM Saigon TO Pontianak (** INVASION FORCE **)
11th Special Base Force FROM Saigon TO Pontianak
12th NLF FROM Saigon TO Singkawang (** INVASION FORCE **)
12th Base Force FROM Saigon TO Singkawang

Malaya
4th Mixed Regiment FROM Saigon TO Kuantan VIA Kota Bharu
23rd Mixed Brigade FROM Saigon TO Mersing VIA Kota Bharu
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RE: Troop Movements

Post by DuckofTindalos »

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

I like to plan out objectives well in advance. Also, another idiosyncracy - I never deliberately split up land units.

As we've seen, that's probably a good idea.
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More of the same

Post by Captain Cruft »

13th Dec 1941

Another British PC succumbs to the Betties from Formosa and a very small AK receives 4 torpedoes from a Japanese sub to the NW of Singkawang in Northern Borneo.

--
The 56th Brigade is loading up for the trip to Davao. It will be accompanied by the Ryujo group (still with Claudes *) and the Guam bombardment force (4 CAs etc.). The job may be easier than expected since the B-17s have been withdrawn from Cagayan to either Manila or Clark Field where they appear to have put on Naval Search duty.

--
Over in the Marshalls the 52nd Nav Gsn (I got the numbers wrong in the Troop Movement post above) is on the way to Nauru Island.

--
* Palau starts with about 5,000 supplies in the CHS hence you cannot upgrade or replace planes. I have a supply convoy on the way from the Home Islands but it's got a long way to go yet.
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Sinkage

Post by Captain Cruft »

14th Dec 1941

The busiest turn since the start!

Much to my chagrin the first Japanese ship has been sunk. This was the sub minelayer SS I-121, which had been depth charged by British destroyers outside Singapore on the first day. I had managed to get it back to Saigon but float damage was at 97 when it arrived and the port could not save it.

Also in the Malaya region, I had ordered the bored Kongo & Haruna group to deliver a bombardment at Kuantan, where the Brits have based Hudsons and Wildebeests. Unfortunately, I had forgotten about the Swordfishes at Singapore and as a result the Kongo received a single 18in torpedo. It will probably be OK (the force is now heading back to Saigon) but I am not going that close to Singapore again. The bombardment was not very effective either.

Yet more Hong Kong refugees were detected and despatched by the Saigon Nells. This time it was yet another PG and a tanker carrying fuel.

---
Over in the Philippines the P-40 anti-shipping strikes are starting to hit the target. They were joined this turn by the B-17s, which are confirmed as operating out of Clark Field. Three APs received 100lb bomb hits which, whilst not fatal, have reduced their speed somewhat. Some troops of the 33rd Division were also lost in one of the strikes.

The 16th Division is now mostly landed at Naga. An exploratory Deliberate Attack has been ordered for tomorrow. Further convoys containing the 16th Army and supporting artillery are following close behind.

--
Over to the north of Canton Island the KB finally found a target. This was the CA Louisville and accompanying AP that start the game in the Espiritu Santo area. Both US ships were sunk but I was alarmed to see that Adm Nagumo produced a very un-coordinated strike. With this in mind I will retire the carriers to Kwajalein in order to pick up some more escorts and re-arrange them into TFs with < 200 planes each. The plan is still to go hunting in the Canton Island/Pago Pago region but a few days here or there shouldn't make much difference.
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Air Attack on Clark Field

Post by Captain Cruft »

I forgot to mention.

The last turn also featured the 21st & 23rd Air Flotillas attacking Clark Field. I was very pleased with this raid, 8+ planes were destroyed on the ground and substantial damage added to the airfield. With the 1.50 patch you are not guaranteed these sorts of result at all.

52 Betties and 23 Nells were the bombers involved. The Zero escorts also shot down a lot of defending fighters.
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Pesky PT Boats!

Post by Captain Cruft »

15th Dec 1941

Cruft forgets something yet again ... ;)

I had completely forgotten about the PT boats at Manila. Despite the fact that in every game I have ever played they inevitably turn up at Legaspi attacking the transports. Which is exactly what happened this turn ...

Approximately 10 PT boats faced off against 2 APDs and 4 APs. The PTs got the "surprise". Result was both APDs sunk for no damage to the pesky ones whatsoever. Luckily, the transports had already finished unloading their cargo of a naval construction battalion so, in the scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. Still, I am narked at myself for being careless.

As if to compound the misery, I have also noticed that the Hong Kong MTBs are on the warpath again. This time they appear to be heading for Takao, where they will find 4 destroyers waiting for them with an "aggressive" commander in charge.

--
The P-40s and B-17s at Clark Field continue to bomb the many and various Japanese transport convoys around the northern Philippines. For some reason, the convoy taking the 33rd Division to Bangkok seems to be their favourite. After today's attack, four of the transports in that convoy are looking quite ill. They will press on, but I expect at least one to sink. Let's hope I get a "TF XXXX rescuing men from 33rd Division" result when it does ...

--
On the positive side, once again the Nells at Saigon prove their worth. This time they sank PG Luzon and an accompanying American AP fleeing from Manila.

Even better, my subs clustered around the gap between Borneo and Sumatra claimed a British AO and MLE fleeing from Singapore. The MLE is particularly important as it is AFAIK the only one the Allies start with.

--
Another full-blast air attack is scheduled for Clark Field tomorrow. I really must sort it out. Undefended Lingayen fell today so I can start to move the army planes of the 5th Air Division in to help out.

--
Speaking of taking bases, the Naga attack went really badly. Odds were 0 - 1 and Japanese casualties were about 10 times the Allied. It seems my opponent has moved some reinforcements in (Provisional FA Group, an arty unit).

---

Enjoyment Factor

I am really enjoying this so far. My opponent is playing his well-known "pesky" type of defensive game very well, and the house rule about not changing HQs until January both forces him to stay and fight and prevents me from gamey-arsing around and amassing silly force levels.

Plus, I must say that the CHS makes things a lot more interesting too :)
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Naval Bases - Plans

Post by Captain Cruft »

Repair Ports & Naval Bases - Plans

I am kind of obsessed with shipping and port infrastructure. Please indulge this post ... :)

--
As I mentioned, in the CHS the Japanese get a goodly number of ARs and ASs to start with. Another difference is that both Manila and Soerabaja have small Repair Shipyards, which is nice.

My plan is to make the following non-Home Islands bases into Repair Ports, or "Naval Bases". The definition of which is "build to maximum size (SPS + 3) and install ARs and/or Fleet HQs there".

1. Hong Kong: Size 9 (Repair Yard)
2. Takao: Size 9
3. Manila: Size 9 (Repair Yard + 1st Fleet HQ)
4. Taan: Size 7 (2nd Fleet HQ)
5. Camranh Bay: Size 9 (Southern Fleet HQ)
6. Singapore: (Repair Yard + Southwest Fleet HQ)
7. Batavia: Size 7 (spare Fleet HQ if available)
8. Soerabaja: Size 9 (Repair Yard + spare Fleet HQ if available)
9. Palau: Size 6 (3rd Fleet HQ)
10. Ulithi: Size 8 (spare Fleet HQ if available)
11. Saipan: Size 4 (4th Fleet HQ)
12: Truk: Size 9 (Southeast Fleet HQ)
13: Rabaul: Size 8 (8th Fleet HQ)

You might wonder about the inclusion of Taan in this. Well, I have in mind a vague late war plan for "Fortress Hainan", including the installation of Southern Area Army HQ at Kiungshan. Also, it is just too easy to build the place up due to the huge numbers of engineers there at the start of the game.

I suppose you might also wonder about the preference of Saipan (max size 4) over Guam (max size 5). This is simply because building Guam up does not fit into the "Marianas Defence Plan". Of which more later (readers of the previous AAR may have some clues).

--
In addition, the following bases will act as forward submarine bases on or near the perimeter, with ASs installed:

1. Kwajalein: Size 3 (6th Fleet HQ)
2. Eniwetok: Size 3
3. Jaluit: Size 3
4. Shortlands: Size 3
5. Georgetown: Size 3

--
So ... that's the plan. At the moment I just have all the ARs and ASs heading out in various directions attached to transport convoys. I am very paranoid about sending them anywhere without ASW escort so it will take some time to get them fully distributed.
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Hong Kong MTBs are no more

Post by Captain Cruft »

16th Dec 1941

As expected the Hong Kong MTB flotilla turned up at Takao during the night phase. They were greeted by the destroyers I mentioned plus another small surface TF I had set-up earlier at Pescadores. 4 of the little blighters were sunk but single torpedos were delivered into a DD and a PG. The PG will be OK but the destroyer is looking a bit dodgy at 70 float damage.

I was determined to get rid of these pesky little boats so had taken further precautions. First, a sentai of IJA Ann dive bombers at Takao was put on Naval Attack at 100ft. They successfully attacked and sank another MTB. Then the remaining two MTBs ran into another destroyer TF I had placed at a "strategic" hex on the route between Hong Kong and Takao. In an uneven fight the last two torpedo boats were sunk.

So, woot for getting another mid-ocean intercept and double woot for getting rid of the PT boats in this area!

--
Another reasonable air attack on Clark Field. It's not going to be too long before I get all the aviation support and engineers installed at the three air bases in Luzon so I can prosecute the suppression campaign more effectively.

--
Yet another PG (Isabella) succumbs to the combined air/sub blockade covering the escape routes. This time it was a sub that did the deed. I am so far very pleased with my subs, but on the other hand they have not yet had to deal with more than two escort vessels.

--
Ship losses are now 40 - 3 but the air losses ratio has now dropped to 6 - 1. I've never really watched this before, it's amazing how quickly it falls.
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Hong Kong falls

Post by Captain Cruft »

17th Dec 1941

Much to my surprise Hong Kong fell today. The last deliberate attack I made achieved 0-1 odds and disrupted the 38th Division badly. Today the odds were 7-1, and with a fort level of 2 this resulted in a capture. Randomness rules I guess :)

--
Today also saw the first successful US sub attack of the war. SS Sargo fatally wounded a lone AK on its way to Saipan delivering fuel.

--
It seems the focus of naval combat action may now move to Borneo. The 35th Brigade has landed at Kuching (without interference) and will Deliberate Attack tomorrow. At the same time a combined US/British cruiser force has been spotted at Pontianak. Dutch Brewster fighters are on CAP at the base but they could not prevent the unescorted G1/1st Daitai (Saigon) from delivering the inevitable 18in Type 91 torpedo into CA Houston.

Now, whilst this was a successful attack it was also the first time that a group of Nells have suffered a lot of Allied flak. The main practical effect of which is to put them out of action for a while due to Morale hitting the floor ...

--
Back in the PI the 16th army continues to land at Naga. Further Deliberate Attacks will follow within the next 2-3 days. However, more US and Philippine reinforcements continue to pour into the base. There are now 3 Philippine "Reserve" divisions, 1 US RCT, 1 US armoured unit and an artillery unit present. This could prove tricky ...

--
Air & Ship Loss Ratios

From now on I will give ship loss and air loss ratios every turn. IMHO these are the prime indicators of how the war is going.

The ship losses are expressed in points, not number of ships, and the ratios are rounded down to the nearest whole number.

Air: Allies 5, Japan 1
Ship: Allies 9, Japan 1
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Special Intel

Post by Captain Cruft »

Special Intelligence

After we finished the previous game we exchanged passwords. I have just been looking at the Allies and it is very interesting.

First off, it is immediately obvious that Alikchi is a concentrator, and also what I would call a "pusher-upper". For example, India is completely devoid of combat units - they are all in Burma. In Northern Australia, Derby and Broome have been abandoned whereas Darwin is stuffed full of troops, planes and ships. 599 planes to be precise! I knew it was a large airbase but that is a lot.

Darwin aside, it was gratifying to see that I had managed to keep Timor pretty much devoid of supplies, if not troops and planes.

--
Over in the Pacific there is a similar though smaller "mega-base" at Canton Island, whilst Pago Pago & Suva remain virtually empty.

--
Now, whilst the game engine certainly does reward concentration, at least in terms of air and land combat, this type of pushing up strategy leaves a lot of scope for the enemy (i.e. me) to wreak havoc in the rear areas. I will certainly have to consider this for the current game.

--
Lastly, the thing I find completely inexplicable about looking at the set-up is the almost total lack of ASW escorts for transport convoys. These are manual convoys, not auto-convoy ones BTW. At the same time, there are numerous DDs, DMSs, MSWs, PGs etc. disbanded in ports all over the map.

Go figure ... Needless to say I may have to get more aggressive with my subs in this game, which I had planned to use largely as scouts.
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RE: Special Intel

Post by CapAndGown »

Does any one in Britain say "while" instead of "whilst"? [;)]
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RE: Special Intel

Post by Captain Cruft »

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

Does any one in Britain say "while" instead of "whilst"? [;)]

LOL. Yes of course. I would normally, but not in this, err, literary context ... ;)

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Air Attack on Singapore

Post by Captain Cruft »

18th Dec 1941

A bit of a quieter turn. The main event was my first air attack on Singapore, performed by the 100 odd Sallies now installed at Kota Bharu. Results were a bit disappointing, with only 22 dents put into the runway and no planes destroyed on the ground. The Oscars on escort did okay though against the brave if somewhat tubby Buffaloes on defence.

--
In the "Sumatra - Borneo Gap" I lost a sub (SS I-157) to a very strange ASW event. The Allied vessels had 3 goes at finding and attacking the sub according to the combat animation. For a moment I was worried that the program had gone into an infinite loop!

--
Production

After a bit of a muse I have gone and done something radical with naval bomber production: I will not produce Betties.

Why, you may ask? Well, I think that the naval torpedo bombers in general are only useful until the Allied flak becomes too much, which should happen in late 1942 or so. The stats for the Nell and Betty are virtually identical, so I will just stick with the 200+ Nells I start with for the initial "happy time". Betty production will be diverted into the G5N Liz. If I can produce enough Nakajima engines this plane just has to be useful - it has the same bomb load as a B-24.

I am not giving up on the torpedo bombers altogether though. The P1Y Frances will still be produce d since it has good speed and armour. Ditto the Ki-67 Peggy. Perhaps the Japanese can have an "18in Type 91 Torpedo renaissance" in 1944. ROFL.

--
Loss Ratios

Air: 4 - 1
Ships: 8 - 1

Going down far too fast for my liking ...
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Kuching holds out

Post by Captain Cruft »

19th Dec 1941

The 35th Brigade is struggling at Kuching. It has mounted 2 Deliberate Attacks now to no effect. Upon checking I see that I did not ship sufficient supplies with it. D'oh! More are on the way from Saigon.

Meanwhile, Adm Kurita's heavy cruiser force that is guarding the landings came under air attack today from Dutch Martin bombers in Java & Borneo and Australian Hudsons in Singapore. All to no effect. However, I don't like Singakawang (size 3) being so close since the T-IVa torpedo bombers might show up. Therefore the cruisers have been ordered to bombard the place overnight. Where they will no doubt encounter some VH-2 mines ... ;)

--
In "the Gap", where it seems that ABDA has cobbled together a few ASW hunter-killer groups (including some vicious Australian MSWs), another I-Boat received a couple of depth charges. It will probably be OK and is returning to Saigon for repairs. However, this area is getting too hot now so the remaining subs have all been re-directed to the safer and deeper waters surrounding the west and south-east of Java.

--
In the Philippines both San Marcelino and Tuguegaroa fell today. The Americans had run away though so this was hardly a massive achievement. Next stop is Clark Field where recon is showing some 45,000 troops present.

The 16th Army also deliberate attacked at Naga today. Forts were reduced by one but odds were 0 - 1. In order to help out with this obstacle I am sending Adm Nishimura's cruiser force down from Takao to lend bombardment support.

--
Worst moment of the turn was an AP hitting 3 mines and sinking at Hong Kong. It was carrying the 121st IJN Base Force from Taan, which has survived though in diminished form. What was gutting about this though was a) the ship was one of the super-duper 22 knot jobbies and b) it had 3 MSWs accompanying it. In retrospect I should have waited until the port was clear before shipping anything in or out. Oh well ... once again Crufty Carelessness (TM) comes to town ;)

Heavy Bombers

I now have 4 G5N Liz's in the pool!

Loss Ratios

Air: 4 - 1
Ships: 5 - 1 (the single AP reduced the ratio from 8 to 5)


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RE: Kuching holds out

Post by CapAndGown »

How do you know which divisions/brigades belong to which army? I wish the game indicated organizations better.
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RE: Kuching holds out

Post by Captain Cruft »

ORIGINAL: cap_and_gown

How do you know which divisions/brigades belong to which army? I wish the game indicated organizations better.

Technically LCUS don't belong to any army. They are just assigned to a "Command HQ" - there is no hierarchy. I'm just making it up based on my very limited knowledge and where the army HQs start the game.

14th Army (65th Brigade, 48th Div) is at Pescadores
16th Army (16th Div) is at Amami & Kagoshima
25th Army (5th Div, 18th Div, Imp Gds Div) is at Taan and in Indo-China
15th Army (33rd Div, 55th Div) is at Shanghai and in Indo-China

Then you have the 38th Div in Canton, the 2nd & 56th Divs in the Home Islands, the 4th Div also in Shanghai plus the 21st Div in Hanoi.

Basically I just find it useful to think in terms of HQs when I'm deciding where LCUs and air groups are going to go. In my idiosyncratic way I just can't abide the "let's ship a fragment of a random base force to that base" type of thing.
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Force Z at Davao!

Post by Captain Cruft »

20th Dec 1941

Well this one was a turnup for the books! An augmented Force Z (PoW, Repulse + British & Dutch cruisers and destroyers) arrived at Davao in an attempt to disrupt the landings there. Fell off my chair I did :)

I had spotted a surface TF in that area on the last turn but I assumed it was just CL Boise, Marblehead etc. Also, it was not apparently heading towards Davao.

The battle (at night) did not go Japan's way. I was particularly disappointed in the lack of "torpedoes in the water" from my ships. Anyway, CA Myoko was sunk and two other Furutuka class CAs + 2 DDs badly damaged. In return the Dutch CL Kromp went down along with one Dutch and one British DD. Even worse, after the Surface Combat the Allies managed to get in amongst the transports. Luckily they did not do much here though and the 56th Brigade is now fully landed.

Now, you might be wondering what happened to CVL Ryujo, which was supposed to be covering the invasion here. Well, in my complacency I had pulled it back a bit to meet up with the Zuiho as it came down from the Home Islands. So, the air support was a bit late arriving. However, they partially made up for it by putting two Type 91s into the Repulse as the Allied suicide squad was retreating to (I guess) Tarakan. Quite a few Kates were destoyed and damaged in this attack but for some reason their morale is not bad so I will try and pursue tomorrow and hope that some of the damaged planes get repaired overnight.

--
Elsewhere not much happened. The bombardment of Singkawang was pretty ineffective, possibly due to having not recon'ed the base beforehand.

--
In the northern Philippines Allied reinforcements continue to pour into Naga. 16th Army will continue to sit there until conditions become more favourable.

Since the weather in the PI is not forecast to be too bad tomorrow I have scheduled a port attack on Manila from the 23rd Air Flotilla at Legaspi (newly built to size 2). There is still a quantity of shipping there, including (I hope) an AS or two.

BTW size 2 guarantees that the Betties will not attempt to use torpedoes and get themselves shot up by the flak.

Loss Ratios

Air: 3 - 1
Ships: 2 - 1 (ouch)
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Davao falls

Post by Captain Cruft »

21 Dec 1941

The 56th Brigade took Davao at the first attempt despite being short of supplies. Unusually, the poor quality Philippino division opposing them has retreated to Djadangas rather than Cotabato (sp?). I'm not going to chase them around the island until I can ship some more troops in to safeguard Davao itself. The 30th Special Base Force will be the first of these, courtesy of some Tabbies at Palau.

As I expected the CVLs managed to catch the damaged Repulse on its way back to Tarakan. Another three 18in Type 91 torps were delivered but the blasted ship still refused to sink! Must be that quality British engineering ... ;)

Also in this area, some P-40s have turned up at Cagayan. They are doing their usual Naval Attack thing but did not get any hits today. The 23rd Air Flotilla can sort them out after it's finished with Manila ..

Speaking of which, I was pleasantly surprised with the Manila port attack. Despite carrying only extended range bombloads the Betties managed to score 250kg AP bomb hits on an AK, a PT (sunk) and 2 subs.

--
We saw the first action in China today. Part of the AVG has shipped into Changsha were it looks like it will be undertaking its favourite duty of shooting down Nates. This was via a Sweep over Nanchang during which a single Nate was lost. I have these fighters on a low 20% CAP precisely because of the AVG threat. This is not particularly risky since the Chinese bombers are not very effective at this stage.

--
Over in the Malaya/Borneo region I now have a fastish AK convoy on the way to Kuching. When it arrives the 35th Brigade will start attacking again. At around about the same time some more supplies should also arrive in Kota Bharu which will enable the Sallies to resume their offensive against Singapore.

At Alor Star the 5th Division is now complete (I had to go back to Taan to retrieve some of it) and has been ordered to march on Georgetown. The Imp Gds is still stuck in the jungle between Victoria Point and the rail line.

Loss Ratios

Air: 3 - 1
Ships: 2 - 1

At least neither went down again :)
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Operation Neck Tie

Post by Captain Cruft »

Operation Neck Tie

Ve have plans!

I am going to try and invade Canton Island, Pago Pago and Nandi/Suva.

The KB (now split into 2 TFs) will firstly form a blockade of Canton Island. Once this is established the Sasebo 7th SNLF will follow on to take the base. Their transport will consist of some very fast APs (20 kts+) and some shorter-range destroyers.

In the meantime the 61st Nav Gsn unit will be landed at Tarawa by slower transports. Nauru fell a few days ago.

Once Canton Island has fallen the Sasebo marines will have their objective re-assigned to Pago Pago, re-mount the tranports and ship out accompanied by the KB.

After Pago Pago is taken the South Seas Detachment will head out from Kwajalein to land on the beaches at Nandi covered by a small surface TF. Assuming that they land successfully they will then march up the road to Suva. The KB will by this time also be in the area and will assist in reducing the base and the NZ Brigade that is installed there. I may send the SNLF on to Tonga if it's not too badly beaten up.

--
Now, while <grin> this is a useful operation in its own right I am also hoping that this will draw the US carriers out to play, and be sunk ;)

At the very least it should make my opponent think about twice about using his normal "send the entire fleet to the DEI" strategy, which is a pain in the ass to deal with.

--
The only possible fly in the ointment is a lack of fuel. I still have the PH replenishment TF which is now carrying about 55,000 tonnes. However, Kwajalein is now completely empty. Several convoys are on the way from the Home Islands but will take a while to get there.

I suppose there is also a small chance that one of the US divisions which start at PH may have been shipped into one of the three target bases. Lack of AP capacity for the US would suggest otherwise, but you never know. If this should prove to be the case I will simply ignore that base and move on to the other ones. This is a raid, we're not planning to move in ... ;)

Notes

In the CHS the Allied bases are somewhat different than in the stock scen:

Pago Pago is slightly less well garrisoned.
Upolu, immediately to the west, is empty.
Tonga just has a small "colonial" unit guarding it, there is no base force.
Fiji only has one squadron of Hudsons, the other has been replaced with an Empire flying boat unit.
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