Reducing A2A lethality

[timtom]

I've been fiddling with the aircraft guns and run a few preliminary tests, using the official database.

1A: Vanilla settings, max XP & MRL
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 Kittyhawk (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby from Lae (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 92

Allied aircraft:
Kittyhawk I x 67

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 17 destroyed (18.5%)

Allied aircraft losses:
Kittyhawk I: 27 destroyed, 5 damaged (40.3% + 7.5%)
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1B: Vanilla settings, middling XP & MRL
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 12) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 Kittyhawk (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby from Lae (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 92

Allied aircraft:
Kittyhawk I x 67

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 9 destroyed, 1 damaged (9.8% + 1.1%)

Allied aircraft losses:
Kittyhawk I: 20 destroyed, 5 damaged (29.9% + 7.5%)
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1C: Identical to 1A, only guns ranges set to 1 and accuracy cut by 50% (round up):
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 Kittyhawk (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby from Lae (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 92

Allied aircraft:
Kittyhawk I x 67

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 11 destroyed (12.0%)

Allied aircraft losses:
Kittyhawk I: 17 destroyed, 3 damaged (25.4% + 4.5%)
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1D: Identical to 1B, only guns ranges set to 1 and accuracy cut by 50% (round up):
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 12) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 Kittyhawk (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby from Lae (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 92

Allied aircraft:
Kittyhawk I x 67

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 3 (3.3%)

Allied aircraft losses:
Kittyhawk I: 6 destroyed, 4 damaged (9.0% + 6.0%)
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Comparative loss percentage, tests 1A-1D:

1A:
A6M2: 18.5%
Kittyhawk I: 40.3% + 7.5%

Ratio: 1:2.6

1B:
A6M2: 9.8% + 1.1%
Kittyhawk I: 29.9% + 7.5%

Ratio: 1:3.4

1C:
A6M2: 12.0%
Kittyhawk I: 25.4% + 4.5%

Ratio: 1:2.5

1D:
A6M2: 3.3%
Kittyhawk I: 9.0% + 6.0%

Ratio: 1:4.6

Loss ratio of total aircraft involved:
1A-1B: 1.4:1.0
1C-1D: 2.4:1.0
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A couple of stock WitP encounters, guns ranges set to 1 and accuracy cut by 50% (round up):

2A: A6M2's vs P-40E's.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 (XP 80, MRL 50, FTG 12) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 P-40E (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby from Lae (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 92

Allied aircraft:
P-40E Warhawk x 50

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed (4.3%)

Allied aircraft losses:
P-40E Warhawk: 12 destroyed, 5 damaged (24.0%/10.0%)
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2B: F4U-1's vs A6M5's.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M5 (XP 50, MRL 50, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4U-1 (XP 75, MRL 50, FTG 13) on sweep (CAP 10%) at 10,000 ft
FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Lae from Port Moresby (fighter sweep):

Japanese aircraft:
A6M5 Zeke x 50

Allied aircraft:
F4U-1 Corsair x 89

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M5 Zeke: 12 destroyed (24.0%)
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2C: G4M1's vs F4F-4's.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 G4M1 (XP 80, MRL 50, FTG 12) on port attack at 5,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4F-4 (XP 60, MRL 50, FTG 13) on escort (CAP 50%) at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Port Moresby port from Lae:

Japanese aircraft:
G4M1 Betty x 89

Allied aircraft:
F4F-4 Wildcat x 37

Japanese aircraft losses:
G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed, 20 damaged (2.3% + 22.5%)

Allied aircraft losses:
F4F-4 Wildcat: 5 damaged (13.5%)

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 97.8%)

56 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 5000 feet
31 x G4M1 Betty bombing at 5000 feet
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Floggin' an ol' warhorse...

3A: B-17E vs KI-61 KAIc, vanilla version.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 Ki-61 KAIc Tony (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 B-17E (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Lae port from Port Moresby:

Japanese aircraft:
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 67

Allied aircraft:
B-17E Fortress x 93

Japanese aircraft losses:
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 3 destroyed, 32 damaged (4.5% + 47.8%)

Allied aircraft losses:
B-17E Fortress: 25 destroyed, 32 damaged (26.9% + 34.4%)

Japanese ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 73.1%)

59 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
9 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
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3B: B-17E vs KI-61 KAIc, gun range set to 1 & accuracy cut by 50% (round up).
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 Ki-61 KAIc Tony (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 B-17E (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Lae port from Port Moresby:

Japanese aircraft:
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 67

Allied aircraft:
B-17E Fortress x 73

Japanese aircraft losses:
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 1 destroyed, 24 damaged (1.5% + 35.8%)

Allied aircraft losses:
B-17E Fortress: 6 destroyed, 27 damaged (8.2% + 37.0%)

Japanese ground losses:
17 casualties reported
Port hits 1

Aircraft Attacking: (Pct. surviving CAP: 91.8%)

36 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
31 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
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Escorted dive-bombers vs CAP

4A: Vanilla.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 Zero (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4F-4 Wildcat (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort at 10,000 ft

No. 76 Squadeon RAAF (SLDR R.E.P.Brooker): 100 SBD Dauntless (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 14) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Lae port from Port Moresby:

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 67

Allied aircraft:
F4F-4 Wildcat x 88
SBD Dauntless x 88

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 27 destroyed, 2 damaged (40.3% + 3.0%)

Allied aircraft losses:
F4F-4 Wildcat: 13 destroyed, 7 damaged (14.8% + 7.6%)
SBD Dauntless: 5 destroyed, 19 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
120 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Port hits 3
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 1

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 94.3%)

65 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
18 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
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4B: Same as 4A, only gun range set to 1.
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 Zero (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4F-4 Wildcat (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort at 10,000 ft

No. 76 Squadeon RAAF (SLDR R.E.P.Brooker): 100 SBD Dauntless (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 14) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Day Air attack on Lae port from Port Moresby:

Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 67

Allied aircraft:
F4F-4 Wildcat x 95
SBD Dauntless x 88

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 15 destroyed, 4 damaged (22.4% + 6.0%)

Allied aircraft losses:
F4F-4 Wildcat: 18 destroyed, 8 damaged (20.5% + 9.1%)
SBD Dauntless: 5 destroyed, 21 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
157 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Port hits 2
Port supply hits 1

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 94.3%)

64 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
19 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
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4C: Same as 4A, only gun accuracy cut by 50% (round up).
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 Zero (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4F-4 Wildcat (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort at 10,000 ft

No. 76 Squadeon RAAF (SLDR R.E.P.Brooker): 100 SBD Dauntless (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 14) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 67

Allied aircraft:
F4F-4 Wildcat x 95
SBD Dauntless x 88

Japanese aircraft losses:
A6M2 Zero: 15 destroyed (22.4%)

Allied aircraft losses;
F4F-4 Wildcat: 10 destroyed, 4 damaged (10.5% + 4.2%)
SBD Dauntless: 19 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
121 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 3

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 100.0%)

67 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
21 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
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4D: Same as 4A, only gun range set to 1 and accuracy cut by 50% (round up).
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F2/Tainan Daitai (LCDR T. Nakajima): 100 A6M2 Zero (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 12) on escort (CAP 90%) at 10,000 ft

No. 75 Squadron RAAF (SLDR L.D.Jackson): 100 F4F-4 Wildcat (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 13) on escort at 10,000 ft

No. 76 Squadeon RAAF (SLDR R.E.P.Brooker): 100 SBD Dauntless (XP 99, MRL 99, FTG 14) on port attack at 10,000 ft

FOW OFF
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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/01/42
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Japanese aircraft:
A6M2 Zero x 67

Allied aircraft:
F4F-4 Wildcat x 95
SBD Dauntless x 88

Japanese aircraft losses.
A6M2 Zero: 14 destroyed (14.7%)

Allied aircraft losses:
F4F-4 Wildcat: 12 destroyed, 4 damaged (12.6% + 4.2%)
SBD Dauntless: 5 destroyed, 16 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
158 casualties reported

Port hits 3
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 2

Aircraft Attacking: (pct. surviving CAP: 94.3%)

64 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
19 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
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Comparative loss percentage, tests 4A-4D, fighters only:

4A:
A6M2: 43.3%
F4F-4: 22.4%

Ratio: 1.9:1.0

4B:
A6M2: 28.4%
F4F-4: 29.6%

Ratio: 1.0:1.0

4C:
A6M2: 22.4%
F4F-4: 14.7%

Ratio: 1.5:1.0

4D:
A6M2: 14.7%
F4F-4: 16.8%

Ratio: 1.0:1.1
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A few preliminary observations:

Individual tests not statistically valid by any means.

Tests 1A-1D suggests that downgrading gun range and accuracy lowers A2A losses.

Relative losses of all aircraft involved, if 1A = 100, then:

1A (vanilla, max XP, MRL): 100
1B: (vanilla, middling XP, MRL): 74
1C: (mod, max XP, MRL): 63
1D: (mod, middling XP, MRL): 27

As the ratio between tests 1A & 1B is 1.4:1.0, and the ratio between 1C & 1D is 2.4:1.0, it is suggested that lowering aircraft gun performance also puts a greater premium on pilot experience.

Relative losses of all fighters involved, if 4A = 100, then:

4A: (vanilla): 100
4B: (range 1): 79
4C: (accuracy 50%): 60
4D: (range 1, accuracy 50%): 62

Tests 2C, 3A-3B, 4A-4D suggests than downgrading makes it difficult for CAP to stop bombers. Yet virtually all SBD's in tests 4A-4D survive CAP to bomb, vanilla or not.

Worth persuing?