The Imperialism, the war against Blackwatch

[Tom Hunter]

I don't see the game ending in 3 months, Blackwatch still has plenty of fight in him.

His army is almost completely intact.
His fleet is in pretty good shape accept for CLs and the PC-MSW-PG type ships
He just lost two CVEs (Ryuho and Hiyo sank this turn, Zuyho took another 7 bombs) and another is on its way to the bottom but the backbone of KB is intact and has fully trained air groups.
His airforce is probabley pretty variable, there are some planes that are clearly piloted by high quality pilots, others that are flown by nitwits and a bunch that I see doing training missions. Also the large numbers cause problems for me even when the pilots are not very good.

Remember that I am trying to hit back with the very limited Allied resouces of 1942 and two of my CVs are already on the bottom. Some day Blackwatch will be in trouble, but the problem I have is how to beat him now, with the troops, ships and planes that I have.

For example low quality Japanese bombers can't do much in 1944 because every Allied convoy sailing into harms way has CVLs or CVEs to provide CAP. I don't have any of that stuff and my ships can be bombed by nearsighted pilots who left thier glasses behind on the first mission.

Personally I would like to go on with this game until one of us gets an auto victory or the math shows that auto victory is a forgone conculsion.

[Bliztk]

Yes, I was saying Blackwatch has exhausted his pilot pool. [;)]

He is not going to run out of planes, that`s for sure, depending of the number of factories that he has allocated, he could for example by expanding the factories can produce, 4-5 more Zeroes per day, the same with other critical plane like Betty. Maybe it hurts him in the long run, but now its time of pushing the production to the max.

The main factors of the initial Japanese air advantage are Experience diferential, aircraft quality, and Zero Bonus.

The Zero Bonus has expired, you are getting 100 P40s(between Kitihawk and P40B&E), 50 P39s, 60 Hurricanes a month, in 4 days you will recive 50 Spitfire more at a month, so your secondline Wirracoffins can be upgraded in 10-15 days to an interceptor (not good for offensive missions, lacks range), and replace the Wirraways with Spitfires, that it`s more than a match to Zeros, and eats Ki43 for breakfast.

Plus you have more VMFs avaliable with F4F and the 600 planes that you should have recieved in the pool can be expended.

So you are getting 260 modern aircraft per month, plus maybe 100 serviceable aircraft (Mohawks, Buffalos, etc), and a limited nº or VMF (lack of squadrons hurts here).

The Japanese pilot pool is important, the only pilots that you are getting from an exhausted pool at 25 exp are the dutch, all your other pilots have an average exp of 55, while the japanese maybe are drawing replacements with 35-40 exp even less if they are from Army pool.

You are running an attrition battle with the Japanese, and you can only win, even if you lose.

Even if he expells you from Java, he will lose two things.

A) Valuable assests (pilots and planes)
B) Time

As Napoleon said once, the two most important factors on war are time and space, the space can be recovered, time never.

Like time, Japanese exp 85 pilots never return, and with the majority of those pilots gone, then the Allies had the quality advantage even if their pilots come with 55-60 exp from a fresh pool.

[NemRod]

Well,three months was just an allusion to the fact it is theoretically possible to see a game ending by fall 42 if the Jap player can't find the oil and resources he needs for his industry.He would simply be unable to produce supplies and build planes or ships.
He rules the seas and his army remains solid, so I don't think you will be able to reconquer much land. But you don't need more bases than the bases you already have to win the game quickly.
You just need to:
1/ Destroy oil fields and ressources using your heavies from Java.
2/ Interdict shipping using the airfields in Luzon.

1/ Seems highly possible, if you achieve 2/ you are simply winning!
You don't need many invasions (you already are where it is important to be [:D]!), may be just to secure the Celebes for your supply lines.
I don't say it's easy but if you manage just that you can strangle his production in 42, ending the game.
Without invading, destroying the fleet nor his army[:)].

[Tom Hunter]

We are up to May 31 now, and there is action all over the map

In Burma the Allied Airforces continue their live ordinance training program, pounding every Japanese base in range. More and more of my squadrons have passed the 70 XP mark. On land large forces will be arriving in Myitikina in the North and are unloading at Akyab in the South. Everything is on schedule for a big offensive in the July-August time frame.

In China an amazing thing happened. As you may remember there is a force of one division and one engineer regiment isloated between Kwielin and Canton. They have been cut off since early April and the Japanese sent one more engineer regiment to get them out, that opened up a path and moved them 1 hex (to open terrain) in mid May. Well on May 29 8 Chinese divisions launched yet another deliberate attack on the sons of heaven. This time, a lot of them decided to go there:

Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 75596 troops, 448 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 17688 troops, 47 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 93 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
2927 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Allied ground losses:
819 casualties reported
Guns lost 28

I got a message saying 20th Engineers destroyed! My first kill of a Japanese unit, ever!


Over on Java land combat did not go as well for the Allies, the Japanese hit Malang and took the place on May 29th:
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 28802 troops, 347 guns, 4 vehicles
Defending force 3636 troops, 1 guns, 0 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 18 to 1 (fort level 3)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Malang base !!!
Allied aircraft losses
Hudson I: 3 destroyed
Beaufort V-IX: 9 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 7 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 4 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 9 destroyed
PBY Catalina: 4 destroyed
Japanese ground losses:
2 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Allied ground losses:
6145 casualties reported

The attacking force is the 5th Division and a supporting brigade.
On May 30th the Japanese airforce hit Soerbaja twice. The first attack came out of Bali which has tired airgroups:

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 3
Ki-21 Sally x 15
Ki-48 Lily x 11

(Allied CAP pictured below)
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-48 Lily: 3 destroyed
The survivors turned back without bombing.

Then Batavia showed up with this:





Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed, 13 damaged
A6M3 Zero: 6 destroyed
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 6 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 2 destroyed, 11 damaged
Ki-48 Lily: 9 destroyed, 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged
Brewster 339D: 1 destroyed
Kittyhawk I: 10 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 3 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 8 destroyed
A-20B Boston: 2 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 3 destroyed
Wirraway: 1 destroyed

They also put 9 hits on the airfield.

At the same time over the last 3 days the Japanese fleet has been moving away under heavy pressure from Allied bombers, here are some sample results:

May 28th:
Japanese Ships
BB Ise, Bomb hits 1
BB Yamashiro, Bomb hits 1
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 1
CL Yura
BB Nagato, Bomb hits 2

Japanese Ships
CVL Zuiho, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
She will join Ryuho and Hiyo on the bottom by the 29th.

May 29th:
Japanese Ships
AK Matue Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese Ships
AP Koyo Maru
DD Namikaze
AP Yamato Maru
DD Okikaze
DD Kamikaze
AP Husimi Maru
AP Tatsuwa Maru, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Nokaze

Japanese Ships
AP Kansan Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Namikaze
AP Miike Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Nokaze
AP Yamato Maru
AP Hokuriku Maru

There were also two more bomb hits on Japanese BBs.

May 30th the Japanese are all in the Java Sea now, heading East and North East:

Japanese Ships
DD Nokaze, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Namikaze
AP Kashiwara Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
AP Awa Maru
AP Koyo Maru, Bomb hits 1
DD Kamikaze
DD Okikaze

At least two DDs have gone down, one to air attack and another in a battle that cost me 3 PT boats on May 28th.

In strategic terms the problem is simple, can the Japanese shut down the airfield at Soerbaja before they run out of steam in the air? The 5th Division shut down Malang which greatly simplifies the situation for Japan, but I don't think it will be enough to tip the balance in favor of Japan on the ground. Soerbaja is a level 7 fort with a level 5 airbase and 36,000 supply. Going from 100,000 Japanese outside to 128,000 Japanese outside is not going to make much difference.

Also the Japanese do not have control of the Sea around Java. Transports carrying supply are trying to slip into Soerbaja right now. The nearest Japanese surface ships are 2 Kongos and some cruisers at Tjiliap. Unfortunately for the Japanese Tjiliap airbase has no fighters and there are 3 (as yet undetected) RN fleet carriers 5 hexes to the West, coming in at full speed for a strike that will take of just before dawn.

Further South Bali is the airbase that is trying to stop Allied ships from getting to Soerbaja. In two days 4 RN BBs are going to bombard the place, this turn they are moving in close with aircover provided by Fulmars from Heremes. The Japanese only have a few planes on Naval, and tomorrow they will have a choice between flying everything out of Bali or hoping my shore bombardment attack on the airfield does not score.

Of course if Blackwatch chooses to bring KB into action then the British will have to run away but he seems to be saving it for a decisive battle. Maybe its lurking somewhere near the Solomons?

Vanakolu now has an EAB, and Engineer unit and 3,000 supplies. It also has a daily visit by Betties from Rabaul and these are hot shot Betties that have been smashing up my transports and thier escorts. The small number of P40Bs flying LRCAP have not stopped them, though they do shoot one down from time to time. I am getting everything out while my ships are only damaged not sunk. In a week there will be APDs iat Luganville delivering supplies while the engineers try to build a port. So far they are doing about 3% a day so I need to get more units in. That will happen in another week or two.

So far I consider this operation a success for these reasons:
1) Nothing has sunk
2) The troops are ashore
3) A very good Betty group is flying over Vanakolu instead of Soerbaja

There is even an off chance that KB is responding to this operation some how.

B17s from Luganville are also bombing Lunga on a regular basis and the Japanese are not even trying to base planes there. The place also got visits from USN bombardment TFs including one with 4 old BBs. That was part training and partly an effort to attract KB away from Java. I don't know if the second part worked, but in case it did I am going to leave off shore bombardment for a few weeks.

In the Phillipines the Allied troops at Naga continue to punish the Japanese in the forest.

May 28th:
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
301 casualties reported
Guns lost 6
Allied ground losses:
137 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

May 29th
Allied assault odds: 6 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
349 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Allied ground losses:
81 casualties reported
Guns lost 4
Vehicles lost 1

May 30th
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
222 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Allied ground losses:
159 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

I have no idea why the odds change up and down this way. On the 31st the Allies will bombard, then on June 1st its back to deliberate assualts. An AK is unloading at Legaspi so the Allied supply situation is holding steady. The Japanese are down to 11520 troops, 3 guns, but still going strong. My one hope is that I will eventually destroy a unit the way the Chinese did.

Clark is at about 6,000 supply and slowly drifting downwards. There are C47s in Mindanao flying in supply and that is slowing the drain but not stopping it. Small numbers of Allied fighters have been trying to LRCAP Clark for the last few days:

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21 Sally x 14
Ki-49 Helen x 17

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 2
Kittyhawk I x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 3 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 damaged
Kittyhawk I: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 19

But as you can see they are not stopping the bombing attacks or killing many Japs.

The Allies have been counter attacking the Japanese airfields and inflicting slow attrition that way:


Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 18

Allied aircraft
Brewster 339D x 4
B-25C Mitchell x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 2 damaged
Ki-15 Babs: 1 destroyed
E7K2 Alf: 1 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 1 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Brewster 339D: 2 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
26 casualties reported

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 7

It seems that both sides are slowly grinding eachother down using the limited resources available. Again this pleases me a lot because IMHO those Japanese planes should all be pounding Java.

Finally Blackwatch continues to bomb transport ships unloading at Lautem:

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
G3M Nell x 3
G4M1 Betty x 9

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 6
Brewster 339D x 2
Hurricane II x 12
P-36A Mohawk x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 damaged
Brewster 339D: 1 destroyed
Hurricane II: 2 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 3 damaged

The Hurricanes have been doing a lot of the killing here. Sadly they have not stopped the Japanese from hitting the merchant ships, but I am shooting down so many Japs that I am not sure I care. Guess which Hurricane II group is going to be first to get Spitfires?


Wraping it up casualties continue to be huge in the air, the Japanese are less than 100 planes ahead of the Allies right now, the numbers ought to shift in Allied favor forever in June. The Japanese must smash Soerbaja but seem to be unwilling to move the assets they need from other theaters to do it, and they will not use KB and thier main battle fleet on the place either.

This is allowing me to use a combination of air and seapower to inflict heavy casualties and even gain local superiority in a critical theater of the the war, and extend the battle for Java, possibly for an indefinite period.

At the same time the clock is ticking for Japan. 2 Australian division are on ship somewhere in the Tasman sea bound for Darwin, and the British have engineers and air support units on the way as well. Aru Island is now a level one airfield which means it can provide CAP over its harbor. The RN is now planning to operate from Broome. If Soerbaja is not Japanese by July it may never be Japanese at all.

[Tom Hunter]

Here are the changes since the same screenshot in May:

Aircraft losses:
Allied +660
Japanese + 972
Thats a lot of planes to lose in a month as can be seen below I need 61 more kills to catch him, should happen any day now.

Army Losses
Allied +305
Japanese +224
The Japanese army is still winning

Ships
Allied +21
Japan +27

And the current screenshot:




Up to now I have refused to withdraw any British ships. As a result I have not had any PP for 3 months. I am noticing that more and more of my units are commanded by people so low on the totem pole that they don't even have names. So this month I am sending Exeter and a couple of DDs back to the ETO. Hopefully that will satisfy the Admiralty and they will stop asking for more stuff.

[Tom Hunter]

June 2nd 1942

The furious pace of Japanese air attacks on Soerbaja came to a halt today. The Japanese did not even attempt to bomb the city or its airfields.

At sea the Japanese suffered a stinging defeat off the coast of Bali as a force of APDs ran into the battle line of the Royal Navy coming the other way:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Bali at 24,68

Japanese Ships
AV Kamikawa Maru
APD APD-32
APD APD-33
APD APD-34, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
APD APD-35, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
APD APD-36
APD APD-37, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
APD APD-38
APD APD-39

Allied Ships
BB Warspite
BB Revenge
BB Royal Sovereign
BB Resolution
CA Devonshire
CA Cornwall
CL Birmingham
CL Glasgow
CL Newcastle
DD Stronghold
DD Decoy

The British went on to bombard inflicting 15 hits on the runway and destroying a few aircraft. Then durning the day planes from Soerbaja and the British CVs (visible in the top left of the statistics screenshot) came together and sunk all the surviving ships in the Japanese force. Here is the damage list from one of the 6 attacks that went in:
AV Kamikawa Maru, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
APD APD-38, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
APD APD-36, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
APD APD-39, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
APD APD-33

By the end of it the attackers were strafing lifeboats.

Allied bombers hit Bali hard during the day as well. The Japanese could only muster 4 Oscars for CAP and the Allies did another 47 runway hits and destroyed 5 more planes on the ground. I don't think this shuts Bali down completely but it should reduce its ability to pound Soerbaja. Tonight an RN cruiser group is going to bombard with 6" and a few 8" guns, hopefully that will help keep things calm.

All the usual land attacks took place in the usual places. Japanese troops who have been out of supply for months continue to inflict heavy casualties on attacking American and Chinese troops but they are slowly wearing down.

The 5th Division has joined the attack on Soerbaja. The Japanese have launched a deliberate attack two days in a row, taking one level off the fortifications each day but getting 0 to 1 odds each time. The second days attack was a bit more bloody for Japan and a little less for the Allies:
Ground combat at Soerabaja
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 118073 troops, 1003 guns, 16 vehicles
Defending force 68722 troops, 602 guns, 23 vehicles
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 5
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese ground losses:
1528 casualties reported
Guns lost 50
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
311 casualties reported
Guns lost 26

Soerbaja has 34,000 supply with ships in the harbor unloading more, and more on the way. The Japanese have set up a Betty group in Balikpapan to intercept Allied shipping, they sunk 2 AKs on June first but have not stopped the flow, I am assigning some LRCAP to stop them, hopefully it will have some impact.

Inside the city the Allied troops have high moral, 0 disruption and 4-7 fatigue. As posted before I don't think one more division is enough to really change the odds. To win Blackwatch needs to close the airfield and cut off supply and he does not seem willing to risk the forces he needs to accomplish that goal.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Has anyone noticed that the lower right says "Allied Stategic Losses"?

[Bradley7735]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Has anyone noticed that the lower right says "Allied Stategic Losses"?

Yeah. But, what's wrong with that? If Japan bombs the US or Australia, they get points for allied strategic losses.

[Tom Hunter]

Its unique to the New England version of the game, it tries to work in language that we can understand, so it drops "r" in some places that it should be, and adds it in others.

Personally I am looking for idears that I can use to engage in stategic wahfare.

Got it now? [:)]

[Bradley7735]

Doh. Did I mention that I tend to have dyslexic tendencies?

[Tom Hunter]

More pounding in the air, the Japanese came back to Soerbaja and scored a few bomb hits, a British CL in the Java Sea took a torpedo and is running for Soerbaja (I hate to admit it but I still had them home ported in Trimcomalee so when the bombarded Bali they went straight up the center on the way home.)

On land some interesting things happened.

The Allies added an additional two squadrons of bombers to the attack on the isloated Japanese at Naga, and launched a deliberate attack after a one day rest:

Ground combat at Naga
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 26112 troops, 184 guns, 248 vehicles
Defending force 10890 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 8 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
400 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Allied ground losses:
58 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

These are the best odds and best casualties we have ever gotten, things are finally beginning to work.

In China the Japanese pocket is finally starting to suffer severe casualties:
Ground combat at 43,39
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 73603 troops, 357 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 13734 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 58 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
4924 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Allied ground losses:
298 casualties reported
Guns lost 17

When these guys finally die its going to free up a 70,000 man army. I am not sure if Blackwatch knows it but there is another army of roughly the same size building up in Homan. Could be an opportunity in China's future.

[Tom Hunter]

We have been playing one turn a day recently which is a little slower than normal for us.

Japanese attacks were repulsed all over allied territory June 4th.

At Soerbaja the Japanese launched one air attack:

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 2
A6M3 Zero x 3
Ki-21 Sally x 20
Ki-48 Lily x 17

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 6
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
CW-21B Demon x 3
Brewster 339D x 3
Kittyhawk I x 9
P-39D Airacobra x 1
P-40E Warhawk x 13

Losses are not important, what is important is that very few Zeros showed up, and not a single bomb was dropped on Soerbaja. There are now 2.5 Wildcat groups flying CAP over the city so the Allied ability to take attrition is much better, as the Wildcats repair I will pull the P40 group out so that it can build up again. Soerbaja has 40,000 supply on land and another 40,000 on merchant shipping in the port.

In the Phillipines the CAP at Clark got stronger as the Wildcats returned to the airfield. There are also some Aussie Kittyhawks and the best Dutch Demon group in the islands as well. A combination of CAP and LRCAP met the daily Japanese bombing raid:

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21 Sally x 18
Ki-49 Helen x 22

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 10
CW-21B Demon x 7
Kittyhawk I x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 8 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
Kittyhawk I: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 12

Allied fighter cover drove off 25 of the 40 Japanese bombers, only 15 dropped thier load. With a little luck the next raid will be stopped completely. Clark has had long range CAP for a week or more now, and its slowly reduced the effectiveness of the Japanese bombing. This was the first day that the Allies have flown from Clark in a long time and if trends continue the Japanese will nolonger be able to bomb the place within a few more days.

Further South a supply ship finished unloading at Legaspi which has made it possible for the troops at Naga to continue pounding the Japanese there, they got 9-1 odds today. Tomorrow they will bombard, then its back to deliberate attacks.
Attacking force 25960 troops, 182 guns, 247 vehicles
Defending force 10531 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
380 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Allied ground losses:
168 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

Its a slow painful process but the Japanese are going away. I don't understand why they have not been evacuated, since I doubt I could do more than drop a few bombs on the transport fleet, but they have not been and are dying in the jungle instead.

Betties continue to hit the transports moving to Soerbaja:
Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 14
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
AK Empire Pennant, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Empire Prince, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Coquina

I am going to have to control the convoys more carefully so that I can keep LRCAP over them. That is going to be the problem in the Phillipines as well, I really need to get a supply convoy to Manila but its difficult to do that.

That is all for today.

[NemRod]

His troops at Naga are stopping the supplies at Legaspi, they can't reach Clark Field. That's probably why he doesn't evacuate.

[Tom Hunter]

I understand that, but there are many much less costly ways to cut off the supplies to Luzon. Frankly there should be no supplies coming into Legaspi.

He could put planes on Naval attack in the North Celebes and just sink everything trying to slip through.

He could camp 3 DDs on Legaspi and sink the AKs as they arrived.

He could assign a CVE to patrol the area.

Instead he has lost 10,000 men so far and may lose all of them.

[Tom Hunter]

I crunched some numbers today and learned some interesting stuff. All the ship counts are mine, and I could be off by a few, especially in the more numerous classes such as AKs or APs.





I am pleased to see that the CV gap is not that great now that I put a few of his onto the bottom off Java. The US will be back up to 4 CVs in another month or two, and the British have 3 CVs and a CVL, which puts the Allies close to parity with Japan.

Caution is still the watchword for the Allies, no major operations outside of LBA cover, a slow methodical advance in the Solomons, hit and run rather than hit and stay for the Allied navies. But these numbers do show that the plan for squeezing Japan is workable. There is not enough material on the Allied side for the advance to work if we suffer a serious defeat, but if we don't we can steadily increase the pressure on Japan.

[CapAndGown]

Whose ship numbers are these? I would have thought they were yours, but the allies don't have CS's. If they are jap numbers, how do you know the additions?

[NemRod]

Speaking of numbers...
Long ago I calculated the initial needs, without expanding etc.., of HI points for Japan.IIRC it was, monthly:
Merchant + naval shipyard= nearly 200 000 HI
Armament+ vehicles= 100 000 HI
If your opponent loses 1000 planes monthly that are say:
700 1engine planes= 25200 HI
300 2engines planes=21600 HI
It's nealy 50 000HI more.
So without expanding researching etc.. he needs at least 350 000 HI points each months,he needs 350 000 oil to produce them. So he needs 350 000/30= 11 666 oil daily, or 11666/6 = 1944oil field points, lets say 1950.
He has 750 oil field points at the beginning so he must find 1200.It would be interesting to see if he has them on hand (you can check it by setting your long range bombers on City Attack ).Could you tell us?
Any way, if they aren't damaged now you can finish the job as soon as Soerabaja will be a safe place for your heavies.Almost all the oil fields are in range.

His ships losses are impressive.And he probably have more ships damaged than sunk. But he may have added more than you think, accelerating naval construction.

[Tom Hunter]

Cap_

These are Japanese numbers, I got them by opening scenario 15 and counting ships, then looking at the reinforcements coming in the next 180 days.

Nemrod is correct, if Blackwatch accelerated production he could have some additional shipping, but its not likely to be that much.

I am not looking at my losses (which are greated in the CV, BB, CA, and AK catagories, and less in all the others) because I am trying to figure out his capabilities Vs. mine.

I know what my fleet consists of and what it can do because I can look at it on the map.[:)] Figuring out what is in the Japanese fleet and what it can do is harder, and takes this kind of work.

I also agree with Nemrod there are sure to be a number of damaged ships being repaired. I am not sure how many, because he as become much more careful about exposing his naval forces to air attack.

Unfortunatley the answer to Nemrod's question is impossible for me to get at the moment. Soerbaja is back under severe air attack, 92 fighters and 84 bombers showed up June 4th fighting a 36 fighter Allied CAP and destroying 20+ planes on the ground as well. So I am not flying any B17s into Java at this time.

Even if he has the oil he needs to be making pretty efficient use of his tanker fleet. If we take it as a given that he has the oil fields he needs (which may be true) 11,666 a day means that he needs a full tanker docking in Japan every day, and he needs between 5-10 unloading every day. With 56 tankers its going to be very hard to make that happen.

He was not actually losing 1,000 planes a month until May, in the 4 months prior he lost 3,000 planes. His is probabley still staying above water on supplies and production, but if the loss rate stays at this level that can't last.

On the other hand he is making some progress, I am having to reduce the number of bombers at Soerbaja and he has been grinding up my P40s, which for purposes of this battle are not replacable. There is still a group of 50 P39s sitting in Dili and after that I run out of front line fighters to throw in the battle, unless I pull groups out of the Phillipines, which does not have much to begin with.

He may still capture Soerbaja and if he does its doubtful that I can hang on to the Phillipines. Which ever way it goes its bound to be exciting.

On a different note, if you want to know his situation go to his AAR, request that he post, and send him a PM. I know he is very busy, but he has no way of knowing the level of interest in our game and if asked he might respond.

[Tom Hunter]

I don't write about this a lot because its the same thing every day and it has been since some time in March. But here is the India-Burma Airshow in all its glory:





At any given moment some of these planes are resting, but most are on the attack. All but the more recent re-inforcements have XP in the mid to high 70s, more recent arrivals are in the 60s. Here is the most recent combat report:

Day Air attack on Pagan , at 31,31


Allied aircraft
Mohawk IV x 11
Beaufort I x 12


No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x Beaufort I bombing at 8000 feet
3 x Beaufort I bombing at 8000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Mandalay , at 33,30


Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 7
Mohawk IV x 2


Allied aircraft losses
Wirraway: 7 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
13 casualties reported

Runway hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x Wirraway bombing at 2000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Mandalay , at 33,30


Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 13
Beaufort V-IX x 9


Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 1 damaged
Beaufort V-IX: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
40 casualties reported

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x Blenheim IV bombing at 10000 feet
6 x Beaufort V-IX bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Beaufort V-IX bombing at 10000 feet
6 x Blenheim IV bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Blenheim IV bombing at 10000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Lashio , at 35,30


Allied aircraft
Wellington III x 5


No Allied losses

Airbase hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x Wellington III bombing at 7000 feet
2 x Wellington III bombing at 7000 feet

Day Air attack on 14th Tank Regiment, at 35,30


Allied aircraft
Beaufort I x 10


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Sometimes its more, sometimes a bit less depending on the weather. One thing is certain when the British infantry divisions finally start to move they will have very powerful air support.

That offensive is still on schedule for August, more and more troops are arriving in Mititkyna and Akyab every day.

For those wondering its 542 fighting aircraft and 152 transports. I am not going to upgrade the Hurricanes because they carry 500LB bombs and Spitefires only cary 250 pdrs. Given the situation elsewhere in the Pacific the British are never going to see another Japanese fight or bomber again.

[Bradley7735]

Tom, why on earth do you have swordfish and vildebeast in Mykitnia??? Shouldn't they be in a coastal base to protect against his navy?

I think they'd be better served in Akyab or even Chandpur. You can have them on naval primary and airfield secondary.

If you're worried about their vulnerability to bombardment, you can put them in Dacca. (but then they probably couldn't reach the front lines from Dacca.)

Of course, he probably doesn't send any fleet to the Bay of Bombay. You've got him tied up all over the map.

Keep up the good writing.

bc