Only God and "luck" or "bad luck" (depending from your viewpoint) can describe the fact that Dauntless bombers come unopossed over KB at most vulnerable moment...
Not at all. Look, you've got to look at the details. The Japanese CAP was down low in part because of poor command and control. (The USN had the same problem at the time. This is understandable because these were the first CV vs CV engagements anyone ever had. Prior to that it had been on both sides a matter of attacking and defending fixed installations, which I think is operationally a much less complex task both attacking and defending.) It was also down low because the Japanese fleet had been under continuous attack for 40 minutes. Their defense was overtaxed and stretched beyond its breaking point.
That leaves the Dauntlesses. One formation (led by McCluskey) found Strike force courtesy of locating Arashio. More on that in a moment. The other formation found Strike Force because they'd been told (prior to launch) of Strike Force's course change (where McCluskey had not). Either way you've got a minimum of 14 SBDs over Strike Force with their CAP on the deck. No matter what you change, IMO, the Japanese lose two CVs.
Now to McCluskey. He found
Arashio.
Arashio was where she was courtesy of hounding USS
Nautilus as the latter set up for an attack on one of the carriers (probably
Kaga). The Japanese course change was precipitated in part by the effort to evade submarines thought to be in the area (and whose presence was confirmed by the appearance of
Nautilus).
So if you mentally subtract
Arashio from the equation (giving McCluskey no ship to intuit), you also shouldprobably subtract Strike Force's course change... and that puts McCluskey AND all the other SBDs on target at abot the same time that Kido Butai is shooting down the inbvound from Midway strikes. Only in this case the USN strike probably arrives as a coordinated strike of 3 USN CVs worth of SBDs, TBDs, and F4Fs.
IMO that would have been even worse for the Japanese than the historical result because I think all 4 Japanese CVs would have been sunk straight away, leaving
Yorktown unharmed and a whole bunch of F4Fs available that in the historical fight had to ditch when they ran out of fuel.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.
Didn't we have this conversation already?