mdiehl - you've been claiming a 1.2 zero to 1 f4f loss rate for CV 42 battles and someone posted a batttle by battle tally that does not support that claim. Off the top of my head those numbers look right and I did not see you dispute them - care to comment on why
Sure I ran through the same exercise in these very forums citing the same sources (the
First Team and
The First Team at Guadalcanal) and giving page numbers and came up with a different talley. At the time I was very clear about my methodology and it was a rather conservative one. Some time later, someone, IIRC it was Tristanjohn, in a subsequent thread, claimed to have checked me on the facts and substantiated my findings. IIRC at the time he was arguing with Chez da Jez over something. Anyhow, people with time depth around here would never characterize me n Tristanjohn as co-conspirators in whitewashing the Allied record. He and I crossed rhetorical swords on several occasions. I figured that with him substantiating the results I claimed to have researched earlier I was home free. Apparently not. I can't explain why Nick claims different results. Either he missed some or he was operating under different methods. For example I was eliminating aircraft "missing, presumed lost" and (IIRC, it's been two years and I tossed the notes long ago) counting only those observed to crash or to disintegrate in the air.
@Treespider
You misquoted him again he did not say that!. He said an 1100 mile round trip and you keep quoting him as say an 1100 mile trip. The last time I checked 565 plus 565 = 1130 miles pretty close to 1100.
But you keep forgetting that these Zero also had to fly 565 miles back to base...
Let's be precise. I "quoted" Richard Frank and in a subsequent post noted that the distance from Rabaul to Lunga was 565. Nick then revised his post from 500 or so miles to 1100, "thanking" me for "proving his point" or some such nonsense. Now, Richard Frank speaks of the fatigue induced in the context of a 565 mile flight before contact. Nick speaks of fatigue on the round trip.
That's why I asked him whether his position was that substantial numbers of Zekes were lost post contact owing to "fatigue" .. meaning whether or not he thinks lots of pilots were so exhausted that they disappeared on route back to Rabaul after breaking contact and exiting the immediate battle area. I suspect that we will find that not many aircraft were lost en route back to Rabaul (in part becasue I do not recall reading that an impressive percentage of the Japanese a/c lost disappeared post-combat, and also because the Zeke was such a fragile machine that any substantial hit had a good chance of bringing it down in the immediate context of the fight where it can be attributed definitively to catastrophic battle damage). I think if people want to take the position that there were substantial losses en route back to Rabaul after clearing the battle area they ought to say so in order that the question can be put to empirical test. I suspect that is why he refuses to answer (ironically, all the while accusing me of "duck and weave"). In any case it is unsafe, apparently, to derive anything that seems obvious from the things he writes, as that becomes, in some strange universe, "distortion."
I'm saying if you want to talk about the fatigue experienced by a Japanese pilot during the 565 mile (about 3 hours) flight before contact with the defenders at Lunga it is a fair point and warrants consideration as a mitigating circumstance. But it's only 3 hours, and most of it is low stress. I think it's fair to compare that sort of fatigue (and the obvious opportunity to recover at a well supplied base in a threat free environment) with the fatigue experienced by the F4F pilots who were under imminent threat of shelling for some 70 consecutive days. To be sure, they weren't shelled every day, but the threat (and bad food, and the sounds of combat in very close proximity) amount to a considerable accumulated stress and fatigue as well.
I'm not willing to concede the point that "the Japanese suffered some unusual or severe handicap" to people who mine the data looking for apologies for results adverse to the Japanese but never consider the circumstances that worked against the allies. It's really more honest to look thoughtfully and honestly at all aspects.
Or, if one is going to get into a battle with people who want to cherry pick the conditions to favor whatever point of view their ideology demands, skip close inspection of the "mitigating circumstances" and just look at the gross numbers. Either way the F4Fs consistently beat up on the Zeroes. When you throw in the other aircraft that the F4Fs destroyed while fighting the zeroes to a draw I think the preponderance of the evidence makes the US F4F plane+pilot combination hands down more lethal than the A6M plane+pilot combination.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.
Didn't we have this conversation already?