Lunacy In The Pacific Mogami Vs. Tom Hunter

[Tom Hunter]

patrick,

You should read all of the Lunacy threads. One difference between this AAR and the other 3 is that this is a Mogami free AAR. I tend to write long rambling essays about strategy which one or two people have said they like, and I could not do that if Mogami was reading this. Ok I could, but the effects would be bad.

I also agreed not to read the other AARs so I don't know what Mogami is doing in the other games, please don't post that information here.

Right now the Allies have the following objectives:

Building up Hawaii
Evacuating Malaya
Fortress India
Supplies and fuel to the South Pacific
Submarine patrol in the North Pacific
Maintaining a viable airforce in SE Asia while hitting back at Japan
Maintaining a viable surface fleet in SE Asia while hitting back at Japan
The battle of Hsinyang in China (fixing a screwup on my part)

Building up Hawaii
My thinking is that Mogami will try to take Hawaii as a defensive manuever to prevent the US from counter attacking in late 42. If he takes Hawaii he gains a lot of points and he makes it much more difficult for the USA to score a lot of points in late 42. This increases his chance of gaining a 4-1 margin for 43. Hawaii is getting 2 divisions, numerous other untis and a lot of airpower. With 3 large well fortified bases and 2 smaller it will be extremely difficult, perhaps impossible, to suppress US airpower in the Islands. 200+ aircraft is enough to heavily damage any invasion force, possibly damage KB and keep constant bomging attacks on Japanese shipping, troops and air in the Islands.

Evacuating Malaya
Malaya is not defensable but the troops there are very valuable in India, which is defensable. Everybody out, some are already gone.

Fortress India
Every base in India is going to be built to a level 9 fort with an L4 airfield and substantial supplies. Certain locations will have the airfield brought up to 9 if possible. This will be done by the Indian army, the army from Malaya and all the Chinese SEAC units which are already on thier way. In addition to these units the Dutch airforce and any evacuated Dutch units will go to India eventually.

Supplies and fuel to the South Pacific
The USA and Australia will be counter attacking in the South Pacific. Supplies and fuel are already on the way. Once the area has been provisioned it will be possible to carry out fleet operations there, but the US Navy is not going to Noumea until it can draw fuel from the port.

Submarine patrol in the North Pacific
This is a tripwire based out of Dutch Harbor, patrollling in case Mogami decieds to make good on his treat to invade the USA.

Maintaining a viable airforce in SE Asia while hitting back at Japan
So far Allied planes have sunk 2 or 3 transports but they have hit 2 or 3 a day for most of the last two weeks at little cost to themselves. The goal is to keep attritting Japanese forces without losing lots of P40s or other hard to replace planes. So far this has gone well, about half the American fighters have gotten out of the Phillipines today there are about 70 P40s in the NIE and Oz.

Maintaining a viable surface fleet in SE Asia while hitting back at Japan
The Sea battle off Kragen is an example of what I want to do again. Caught and sunk some Japanese surface forces including a CA and withdrew in pretty good shape. Also Mogami is running small invasion convoys to smaller Allied bases and the Allies plan to sink at least on of these in the coming weeks. The goal is to operate against the forwardmost edge of the Japanese offensive where thier ships are not covered by airpower and reaction forces are far away. Fuel and Japanese airpower are the problem here, but it looks like opportunites will develop in the area around Timor in coming weeks.


The battle of Hsinyang in China (fixing a screwup on my part)
Got some troops surrounded due to a mistake on my part and the screwy movement rules. Working on a plan to free them using those same rules. We will see. If the surrounded troops can't be saved the 1/3 strength units will all be flown to India when they come back.

[patrickl]

Hi Tom,

Roger. I won't post any info from the other Mog lunancy games. [;)] I do like your style.. more descriptive. [:D] Now, back to reading your last post again.
Thankx
Patrick

[Nomad]

Tom's thread will be more informative since oleg and I can not put too much sensitive info in ours. In fact I may put bogus info in mine to decieve Mogami. [:D] Information that Mogami will have anyway is going to be true and sometimes I just tell him what is what. Again, he can never be sure that what I post is really true or not. [;)][:)]

[AmiralLaurent]

Hi Tom,

It seems to me that Mog is not attacking Burma, so you have rather to fortify the Indian ports rather than the Impahl-Ledo line. Also I advice you to gather ENG (ie BF) in Mandalay to build forts here. With the river to cross, this position may hold more than one month and that is one more month with the Burma Road working.

I will also use my transport AC in China/Burma to fly SEAC Chinese divisions to Burma and RAF BF to CHina. Some more ENG in China may be useful.

I will also keep a havey bomber or two in Anchorage in case the Soviet are attacked. Once this is the case I will send the heavies to Russian AF and bomb Japan from there. Any strategic point scored will help to avoid the 4 to 1 victory.

As for PH, I think that BBs and KB may close all your bases. The key of Hawaii is to defend enough Lahaina so Japan won't take easily a base (that can become a fully active port and airfield), but you can't strip too much PH for that. With the KB cruising E of PH you can't send reinforcements but you have to take the risk. I think a third division in Hawaii is necessary and will make the difference.

[fabertong]

Ahhhh Mandalay, I'm sure Tom doesn't need reminding that Mandalay can be flanked to the west.....avoiding the river shock attack.

[Tom Hunter]

Mostly in reply to Adm. Laurent,

6 Chinese SEAC divisions are moving overland to Mitikinyna, two are being flown into Mandalay. One of my first moves after pulling the US air units out of the Phillipines was to send the Dutch transports to China, and the VMR unit that starts the game in the South Pacific is already there as well.

Because I am abandoning Malaya I think there will be enough troops to get ALL the bases in India to L9 with level 4 or higher airbases.

As for Russia there is no "in case" intel already shows the Japanese prepping for the attack. The US is already sending forces to Alaska as part of the over all Allied response. Right now those forces are pretty sparse, an AVD or two, an AS for Dutch Harbor and some submarines. As time goes by they will grow, and I plan to try sneaking some supply into Russia during the fighting there.

Hawaii has already recieved several of the battallion sized AA and CD gun units that start in San Francisco, Mogs raid did not catch any of those. There are also ships unloading supply in several locations. Lahaina is getting a US infantry division from the West Coast, due to arrive in a week or so. Hilo is getting a weaker division, and the base South of Hilo on the big island is getting a base force that is already unloading. These locations are also getting some smaller combat units as well.

Two air groups are within days of unloading at Palmyra and then flying up to Hawaii, on VMF fighter group and a bomber group which will add 96 badly needed planes to the strength of the islands air force.

There is a good chance that Mogami will go for Hawaii, KB and his BB fleet can knock out 2 bases at a time with a bit of luck, but if the shore bombardment is not effective then they only supress one. It is doubtful that they can knock out 3 at a time, and the plan is to have 4 working within a month and maybe push up to 5.

Right now there are 189 aircraft in Hawaii, when the first reinforcements arrive that number will jump to 236, as the damaged groups fill out the number theoretically goes North of 400 but a limited supply of P40Bs means it will really stop at 380. Hopefully that is enough to turn a battle for Hawaii into a running sore for the Japanese, maybe we will find out, maybe not.

If Mogami does not come for Hawaii having the islands built up gives me a more flexible position than a West Coast build up. The plan includes a large force of APs loitering in the islands or South of them but nearby. These are being kept in case we see an invasion force heading for the US West Coast to pull troops back, but eventually they can be used to support counter offensive operations in the South Pacific.

Sending B17s to Russia is an interesting idea, and your certainly right this game is a quest for points so if I can get some while Mogami is explointing the Russian situation that would be beneficial.

I believe that I am in a race against time to fortify Hawaii

[Tom Hunter]

Things have calmed down a bit after the first two weeks of frantic activity.

The Brits are organizing the withdrawl from Malaya, and resting thier airforce in India before returning to action. Mog bombed the aerial buildup in Georgetown so Bankock was not hit, but there will be a counterpunch from the air coming from the British and American air forces in India soon. Also many British air units are improving pilot quality by hitting undefended Japanese bases.

The Dutch are pulling in some units of the smaller garrison forces, the battalions on Lombock and Pasam?? (near Soerbaja) are being brought back to Soerbaja. Given the size of the Japanese army I am not sure this will be enough to delay things, but I am sure that without these troops Java will fall that much faster.

China is manuevering but not fighting right now.

Allied surface forces are gathering South of Timor to ambush the Japanese. They will get air cover from P40s that escaped from the Phillipines, with luck the Allies will have substantial local superiority for a day or two of raiding before they dissapear again.

That is all for the moment. Casualties are light on both sides as we prepare for the next round of confrontation.

[Tom Hunter]

An all around update.

In China an operation to releive the army at Kaifeng is underway. It is possible to use the screwy movement rules to transit a hex full of enemy soldiers as long as you have a route open to a city on the other side. So the entire army at Changsha is going to march to Wuhan. Mogami is likely to think I am trying to take Wuhan while he is busy at Kaifeng, and will probabley be pleased that I am trying, because he knows I can't do it.

He may shock attack me, I am hoping my army is so big that the schock attack will fail, if it succeeds then this plan is out of luck but so it goes.

After reaching the Wuhan hex half the army gets marching orders for Changsha, and the other half for Homan. A day or two later there will be no Chinese troops in Wuhan, an adiquate army of defenders will be heading back to Changsha, and a large army of attackers will be on its way to the Kaifeng battle. If it works I should be able to relieve the army at Kaifeng, damage some Japanese units, improve the quality of some of my units and burn up a good amount of Japanese supply. What ever happens it is the best plan I can find to fix my intial screw up at Kaifeng.





In the Phillipines all the US troops that can move are concentrated in Manila. 4 base forces have left on 4 AKs the first one is most of the way to Midway now. More base force troops are getting airlifted out to the few remaining NEI bases in range of the Catalinas. I am sending several submarine TFs to pick up troops as well. Those TFs may pick up some combat troops too, Mog has picked off a lot of small bases that he is not garrisoning, I may take a few back just to mess around.

A Japanese attack on Soerbaja Dec 24 failed to take the city by storm:
Ground combat at Soerabaja

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 34005 troops, 379 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 10906 troops, 95 guns, 4 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 4)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2
Japanese ground losses:
1095 casualties reported
Guns lost 31
Allied ground losses:
138 casualties reported
Guns lost 8

Since then two additional battalions of Dutch have arrived from Lombok and the island near Soerbaja. This is about all the reinforcing the Dutch are going to get at Soerbaja, I hope its enough to delay things at least for a week or two.

The Japanese have also taken Madoien, the Dutch are preparing a stronger defense line at Tjiliap. The Jap force advancing towards Batavia seems small, and it may be stopped or even turned back by the Dutch if the Japs decide they need more troops to take Soerbaja. Elsewhere in the NEI the last base in Borneo fell on Christmas day, and the Japanese have control of the Celebese and most of the small bases North of Timor. Sumatra is still safetly Dutch, though I am sure it's turn will come when Mogami goes for Malaya.

In Malaya 18,000 troops have recently shipped out of Georgetown. Combined with earlier evacuations this brings to total into the mid 20,000 range. More convoys are coming, and a blocking force of 5 brigades is at Alor Star. The Japanese have a division and a brigade right now, so its a no worries situation at the moment. I am not sure what Mogami's plan for Malaya is, but clearly he wants Java and the Phillipines first so the Brits may have enough time to get everything out, and if not they are certainly getting a lot away.

Burma is peacefully Allied. Base forces are concentrating in Rangoon to support a counter attack by Allied 4 engine bombers. I have started recon on most of the bases in SEA Asia, we will see how that goes.

There is potential for another naval battle today, this time at Koepang. Japanese scout planes spotted the USS Houston there on the 25th, on the 26th a few Allied bombers tried to hit a Jap cruiser at sea between Timor and Amboina, no APs were spotted. Mogami knows the Houston is there with a CL and some DDs, but he does not know that the Prince of Wales is 6 hours away with 2 more CLs and more DDs, or that 6 PT boats are in the harbor. I also have 15 P40s + some Dutch fighters on CAP, and another 37 P40s coming in, so if he tries a big air attack there is some chance the Allies will hold him off. What ever the result of this on December 27th the Allied fleet is leaving Koepang.

Australia continues preparing for war. Planes from Port Moresby and Rabaul are bombing nearby Japanese bases, and a TF of cruisers and a few DDs is going to bombard the Japanese base closest to Rabaul tonight. There do not seem to be any Japanese in these bases, the purpose of these operations is really training.

The build up at Hawaii continues, the West Coast is reorganizing just in case and the Oglala is on the way to start laying mines everywhere.

Supplies and a few troops are on the way to the South Pacific. Given the nature of this game I am not going to commit big resources there as early as I usually do, but it will be an important theater if the Japanese do not go for the USA so supply is being pre-positioned along with fuel.


Other then the failed attack on Soerbaja, and a similar failure to destroy the Chinese at Kaifeng with a shock attack there have not been any important land battles in the last 6 days, just Japanese troops knocking off small undefended locations. We have not had much air combat either. Mogami did take some AP losses early on, and since then he has been pretty careful to move in strength and not expose himself needlessly. Also the Allied bomber pilots have been terrible, thier hit rate is well below 5% per sortie.

[ADavidB]

It is possible to use the screwy movement rules to transit a hex full of enemy soldiers as long as you have a route open to a city on the other side.

That's a gawd-awful lot better than the previous @#$%^ rule that allowed a cook, two dogs and a general to keep an entire enemy division stuck in one place...[;)]

Dave Baranyi

[Speedysteve]

Depends. From the rules you CAN'T enter an enemy hex from an enemy hex. So IF for example the hex you are in is co-owned and the hex you have to go through is enemy controlled it will be a no go.

Steven

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Depends. From the rules you CAN'T enter an enemy hex from an enemy hex. So IF for example the hex you are in is co-owned and the hex you have to go through is enemy controlled it will be a no go.

Steven

That's fine. It was the old problem of "sticky tape" units that killed many a land offensive for me in earlier versions of the game. This was the problem of not being able to move a unit anywhere under any condition once an opposing unit caught up with it.

Now it seems to be fixed and I hope that no one gets the bright idea to goof it up again.

Cheers -

Dave Baranyi

[Tom Hunter]

Dave,

I don't think anything is fixed, I just think I have a good enough understanding of the movement rules to use them to my advantage. If you look at the map of China I am making sure the hexes to the North of Wuhan are Chinese, and I will pin the Japanese troops in place the same way he is pinning the Kaifeng troops. Basically I am hoping that he does not figure out what I am up too until after the troops have come and gone from Wuhan. At that point I will have moved my center of gravity North of the Yellow river and we will see what happens.

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Dave,

I don't think anything is fixed, I just think I have a good enough understanding of the movement rules to use them to my advantage. If you look at the map of China I am making sure the hexes to the North of Wuhan are Chinese, and I will pin the Japanese troops in place the same way he is pinning the Kaifeng troops. Basically I am hoping that he does not figure out what I am up too until after the troops have come and gone from Wuhan. At that point I will have moved my center of gravity North of the Yellow river and we will see what happens.

Tom - I'm pretty certain that I read that there were some minor changes to the land movement rules in v1.60/v1.602. Certainly I am able to do things now with my troops that I could never do in earlier versions.

In any event, good luck with your operation. [:)]

Dave Baranyi

[Tom Hunter]

December 27th saw another bruising multiple round naval battle between the British and the Japanese, followed by one between the Americans and Dutch and the Japanese. As usual the Dutch PT boats watched from the sidelines. They did redeem themselves on the 28th when they put a torpedo into a Japanese DD.

The Allies had two TFs, PoW with 2 CLs and 6 DDs and Houston, DeRyuter, and 4 DDs. PoW came in first. The Japanese had 3 CAs, a CL and 7 or 8 DDs.

In the first battle the British lost a D class CL, a DD and a US DD, the Japanese lost 2 DDs and took a torpedo in the Nachi. The only thing the PoW hit with 14" was the DD Shiokaze which exploded and broke in two after the hit. Combat went 4 rounds, Prince of Wales was hit but not hurt, nothing like absurdly heavy armor.

In the second battle Houston took a torpedo, DeRuyter was shot up pretty well and a 4 stacker sank. The Japanese lost another couple of DDs.

A tactical defeat for the Allies, since they lost more ships, but still not too bad and the Prince of Wales is still fine which is very good. She is heading for Brisbane now, but the Japanese don't know that and they have to be cautious as long as she could be lurking somewhere nearby.

In Java Soerbaja continues to hold, for how long no one knows. I am sending 2 regiments and a battalion to attack the Japanese tank unit at Djokarta. If that is all he has there I might push it back which would be great.

Allied air assets are being pulled from Java, the Dutch are going to India. 3 weeks of bombing Japanese shipping has tired these guys out without sinking many Japs. Mogami has been careful not to expose his ships after taking a hard hit at Kragen on the 5th day of the war. The bombers keep making fruitless attacks on Japanese BBs, which wears them down without accomplishing much.

In China the Japanese have 180,000 men launching shock attacks on the 80,000 Chinese troops at Kaifeng. The got 2-1 odds on December 26, then bombarded on the 27th. Time may be running out, but supply is still pretty good and surrounded Chinese can become very stubborn. Here is hoping the stay that way. 5000 Assualt points of Chinese are 28 miles from Wuhan right now, hopefully that is enough to stop the Japanese from a successful shock attack on them, and then they will split, 2500 going North to save the troops in Kaifeng and 2500 going back to Changsha. There are also lots of Chinese troops in the interior marching to Wuchow and Changsha China is still reorganizing from the rediculous starting set up.

In the Phillipines just about all my troops are in Manila, but for some reason 8000 supply is sitting in empty bases! I hope it comes back to Manila soon, there is 26000 supply there. Because of my luck getting ships out of Manila I am going to try to get one or two 7000 capacity APs in. I figure I pick up about a week of life in the Philipines for each one that gets there and anything that delays the fall of the place is a really good thing.

More troops left Malaya today. The Southern half of the country is empty, I have troops at Alor Star holding the line, and at Taiping to support air operations. I am trying to make it appear as if the Brits are defending forward.

32 planes of the AVG and 46 American B17s just relocated from Dacca to Rangoon. They are going to hit Bankock tomorrow. That base is guarded by Nates so maybe I will finally score a small victory. Or maybe nothing will fly at all, check this space to see what happened.

A combined force of Aussies, Kiwis, Free French and Americans bombarded Admiralty Island on the 27th. No Japanese were killed on the operation but the dreadful allied night fighting experience level climed a little bit.

Hawaii continues to recieve more planes, men and supplies. I now have base forces at 3 loactions other then Ohau, and the infrastructure is continueing to expand.

Strategically I am starting to think about pushing men and material forward into the Solomons sooner that I would usually do so. The time is coming when the Allies will start to develop some combat power, not enough for offensive operations, but enough for the kind of defensive raids that are about to be launched from Rangoon, or have been done at sea at Kragen and Keopang. It is very important to stay in contact with the Japanese and to do this I need bases that can either reach them or are in thier line of advance. So maybe it is time to think about the Solomons.

The other place I have been thinking about is the Indian Ocean. I am thinking its a death trap for the Royal Navy. PoW and Repulse are already out of there and I am inclined to pull the rest of the fleet out too. KB can steam around and sink some merchant shipping while the gathered strength of the Allied fleets hits back some place that Japan is weak.

[Tom Hunter]

Odd, but apperantly Soerbaja has fallen so often that microsoft auto types it for me. [X(]

Malang will not last long either since it has little supply and weaker forts than Soerbaja. A Japanese CVL TF is coming round the island to raid any evacuation shipping I may have there too. They are going to be very dissatisfied with the haul.

The only other big Allied defeat of the 29th was off the Phillipines, when a US PG fleeing Manila ran into a Japanese convoy escorted by 5 or 6 PCs. The American's lost a very small, very one sided battle.

On the bright side some British PGs and MSW sank a submarine that had been lying off Georgetown torpedoing Allied shipping. Not a major victory but it is always nice to sink a sub. In this case the ASW group spent 3 days looking for it and not hitting it, Mogami can be subborn sometimes, now he knows he should have left horizontally on the 28th instead of vertically on the 29th.

Even better is the first successful Allied bombing raid of the war. 32 P40s of the AVG and 40+ bombers hit Bangkock shooting down 9 Nates to a loss of 3 P40s and blowing up a random collection of 10 planes on the ground. Not a huge win but it is very nice to score one in December. The only down side is the operational damage, half the B17s are stuck on the ground in Rangoon, the rest have pulled back to Dacca along with the AVG. The real bombing will start when the Japanese get closer to Dacca, that airfield is already almost a 5 and is getting a lot of attention.

Mogami is moving at least 6 divisions into South China. He re-took Nanning (taken and abandoned by the Chinese troops marching to Wuchow) and is continueing to march towards Viet-Nam, or perhaps he is going to follow the yellow brick road to Yunan? Post your speculation here.

He also hit several ships in an evacuation convoy at Georgetown today. All shipping (not much there) is pulling out, a group of big TFs will come back soon for a major grab.

Mogami can get a lot of victory points out of Russia, China, India, and smaller but still important numbers from Hawaii and Australia. I doubt he will go for Oz it's very big so just getting there is difficult.

Getting more realistic Mog could take down Russia, then use the land army to go for India while similtaniously going for Hawaii with the fleet. Or he can take a land army to India and support it with the fleet while invading Russia with IJA forces only.

If he chooses option one Hawaii is very well defended. If he chooses option two the stuff at Hawaii is that much better positioned for counter offensives.

There is a third option, land armies to India and Russia, fleet to Hawaii. But that option is too stupid for Mogami.

[Mynok]

His first goal will be to open the rail connection between the SE Asia industrial area and China. This gives him more freedom in how he distributes his resources to his industry in that area.

The road to Kunming in the south is slower than finding the cure for cancer. I don't see that as very likely.

Russia, OTOH, is extremely likely followed by a walk through the Aleutians to Alaska as a precursor to his (assumed) attempt on the West Coast.

[aztez]

Russia would seem to be obvious target ... and than as you stated propably India... Intresting to see how things turn out so good luck to you! [:)]

[Tom Hunter]

I have at least two reports of Japanese units planning for Russia, there is really no question he will go there, and frankly to get 4 to 1 he pretty much has too.

After reading Beer Made Me Do It the invasion of the USA looks less likely.

China or India or some combination of both have to go for the 4 to 1 score to come through. Hawaii is optional, it is worth a lot of points, and you get the points for the garrison as well. The flip side is that if the USA prepares the place well enough you can fail.

Personally I hope Mogami goes for Hawaii in our game. By the time he gets there it will have an air group larger than KB, based in 5 airstrips which means it will be pretty much impossible to suppress. 3 of the Allied bases will have one or more divisions: 2 in Pearl, one in Hilo one in Lanahia and there are CD guns and mines as well. None of the larger bases will fall fast, and even the smaller ones may not fall that quickly unless he sends a big invasion force. But if he does he has to reload it to go after the next big island, and loading troops in a place with 4 enemy air bases and hundreds of planes in range is a big problem.

All this trouble and the US Navy and Royal Navy lurking nearby. Could be a really good show.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter
Personally I hope Mogami goes for Hawaii in our game. By the time he gets there it will have an air group larger than KB, based in 5 airstrips which means it will be pretty much impossible to suppress.

I doubt the allies can hold Hawaii if Japan attacks it in force in January/February. Allied air groups are just too inexperienced to do much against the Japanese KB. Even if you spread out across the bases, he can simply stand off to the west and only keep KB in range of 1 base at a time. Then suppress it and move a little closer for the next and so on. Once a base is smashed it takes weeks to get air operations back up and running, so it can be done if he takes his time.

Your only real hope is a carrier duel, those are your only air groups with enough experience to have any chance of getting through the zero bonus CAP and hurting KB. If you can hurt his carriers badly enough before he smashes each of the land bases, you’ll have a fighting chance. Otherwise Japan can easily crush anything the allies can put on Pearl in the first half of 1942. It’s a simple numbers game, he has em you don’t

So Pearl Harbor will rest on a carrier fight and with almost the max zero bonus in effect I am doubtful it will go your way. I’d be very cautious about dumping too much stuff on pearl then as he will simply gobble up the VP’s if he comes.

Given my comments a thought has occurred to me. Go ahead and build up your air bases, but don’t base any air on the bases furthest west. Then as he closes in with KB to smash Pearl, rebase a ton of air to the built up bases. That will get you the multiple bases in range you want and hopefully keep him from smashing your bases one at a time like dominoes. Not much to do about experience though, takes a long time before you’ll be competitive in the air.

Jim

[AmiralLaurent]

Hi Tom,

from my experience in taking it in a PBEM, PH should be secure right now. I had to use 5 divisions, 8 BB and the whole KB and mini-KB for two months to take it. And you had more time than my opponent to build fort it. If you have a 3rd division on PH and fort at 7 or more you're safe.
The best way to defend PH is to base your CV groups here and set them on naval attack and escort while the Army fighters will defend the airfield. CD defence in PH are strong enough to engage incoming BB and protect the airfield (even if they won't do much damage to the BB) for some time.

In S China, a possibility with the 6 divisions marching W of Nanning is to take the railway NW of the town leading to nowhere and cross the river W of Kweiyang 2 hexes of this city and Kuming. Then you have to march in the jungle but the troops will arrive on a road in an area probably poorly defended. It may be a good idea to send 1/3 of a Chinese Div to keep this hex along the river, just to be informed. Then you will have one month to react.

Another possibility is that these 6 divisions are marching to Burma and then India. In this case, this probably means that Russia is safe. With 6 divisions out of China, I can't see how it may hold China and invade Russia.