Mogami and Tom talk strategy

[Tom Hunter]

Below is an email exchange between me and Mogami. It is related to the Lunacy games though it is not strictly a critique of either my play or his in those games. the >> are Mogami's comments mine are >.

The converstation was started off by an earlier email where I mentioned that it would be nice to know how many troops Japan was losing when I saw the 17,000 casualties at Manila message after one of his shock attacks. It wanders to larger topics of strategy pretty quickly.


>> Hi, You can figure out how many Japanese you are actually killing by
>> tracking the points for land units. I think it's 1 poit for every 3
> squads.
>> (Chinese are 1 for 6 and USA are 1 for 2. Other Allied units are 1 for 3
>> .
>> I think those are the ratios but I'm not certain but prtetty sure its 1
> for6
>> Chinese a dn 1 for 3 Japanese with USA units being the most expensive.
>
> This is true, but it is not very user freindly. Every now and then I
> check,
> but I don't keep a spreadsheet. Once in a great while I happen to check
> before you lauch a big attack and then I get some idea what actually
> happened.
>>
>> Of course you have no choice you must fight. I think the Sir Robin a
> great
>> mistake. The Allies have a vast reserve of manpower but what they don't
> have
>> early on is time. When ever a military force retreats it creates a vacum
>> that draws the enemy after.
>
> I agree with this, but I think it is useful to do a theater by theater
> analysis. For example India does not have the manpower reserve, it is in
> the USA, Australia and China. Malaya is IMHO scattered and piecemeal. So
> are the Dutch, but you took them out so fast if was not really possible to
> concentrate them.
>
>>If you have sufficent force to hold the enemy
>> then retreat serves no purpose and if you don't then you will fight a
> losing
>> battle at a different location. The only time a retreat makes sense is
> when
>> your forces are scattered and can be taken peice meal for no benifit but
>> a
>> withdraw will allow sufficent force to concentrate and better ground can
> be
>> chosen for the battle made after the enemy has wore themselves out
>> advanceing. If you can collect forces to the rear and win a battle there
>> then retreat is ok however what about when sufficebt force can be rasied
> but
>> requires a period of time? In these cases a force must hold forward of
>> the
>> final defensive line and buy time. The Allies have more then enough to
>> replace everything on map provided they still have a line that can be
>> defended. If it were possible to teleport the entire garrsion of PI to
> any
>> base the Allied player could chose I would have it remain in PI because
> the
>> bases located there do not provide any advantage for future Japanese
>> Offensive operations. If there was no PI to capture then the Japanese
> would
>> be operating against bases that would serve to further advances and the
>> units assigned to defend these outposts would still be lost without
>> providing any benifit in time.
>
> Agreed, even if it were possible to evacuate Manila and move the army to
> Rabual, what difference would it make. Rabaul will fall and the Japanese
> will have a huge army just North of Australia. When you take Manila you
> will have a huge army in Manila, which is much farther away.
>
>> The Japanese problem in WITP is not manpower or supply it is time. They
> must
>> achive all their goals before the enemy grows too strong.
>> It is not geographical locations that matter. It is the abilty to
>> locate,isolate and destroy signnicant Allied material at a pace more
>> rapid
>> then it arrives as replacements.
>> The Allied player to be assured victroy in any battle off the mainland of
>> Asia has to gather a force capable of defeating 12 divisions and 350
> carrier
>> borne and 1k+ landbased air.
>
> In the early war I think this is true for both sides, but concentrating it
> is nearly impossible for the Allies and difficult for the Japanese.
>> In lieu of this he has to maintain a position that ties down a large
> portion
>> of the Japanese so that this force cannot mass against another location.
>> Between Singapore and PI the Allied player who conducts a thoughtful
> defense
>> can buy at least 90 days and then in addition the time required to
>> rest/refit/prep/transport the required force to a new operation. If 12
>> div
>> are tied down in PI then every single Allied base can be held by Bdes or
> RCT
>> and with just a little air and naval support be quite secure.
>> When the Allied player conducts a Sir Robin all he is doing is relocating
>> the destruction of his forces. The Japanese will simply go where they
> feel
>> they can do the most damage and they will not have to have earned this
>> freedom of movement.
>
> Some Japanese players fail to understand this, thinking that the early war
> is only about territory. But it is about time, territory and destroying
> enemy forces. For comparison your wipeout of the NEI is a near perfect
> move
> for the Japanese, you took them out very fast, destroyed almost all the
> forces involved so they can't come back after you in the future, and
> grabbed
> the position quickly as well, giving you plenty of time to organize. My
> defense of Malaya in the fear and loathing game was equally good for the
> Allies. I held the place for 90 days, giving Allied forces plenty of time
> to prepare defenses elsewhere, and then got the army out without
> substantial
> losses to fight again. I got the time, and I got the forces, all I gave
> up
> was the territory.
>> The SRA under most circumstance should still be holding Japanese land/air
>> and Naval forces till at least March. April would be consumed refiting
>> resting so it would be May before any Japanese force would be arriving at
> an
>> Allied rear area. If the Allied player has devoted his efforts to
> devining
>> the enemy intent then by May he should have the bases defended. InMay
> 1942
>> the Allied player does not defend a base by having force to defeat 12 div
>> but by having the means to prevent it's transport.
>
> This is easier said than done, and cannot really be done everywhere in the
> time frame you describe. But it is true that the range of offensive
> options
> available to the Japanese starts shrinking in May, if the Allied player
> has
> been tenacious and clever in his defense of the front line. On the other
> hand if he has fed the Japanese player some easy victories or pulled back
> to
> fast then the Japanese can rampage a few months longer. I think Hoepner
> did
> a good job in the Italian Job, and now that the latter part of 1942 is
> rolling around he is just beginning to lose momentum. Adm. Laurent's game
> Vs. Pompack will also be interesting. As for our game by May there will
> be
> places that should (who knows what luck will do in the end?) be able to
> stop
> a Japanese invasion force even if it comes loaded with everything, and
> there
> will be other places that cannot win that fight. Guessing where your
> going
> or I am preparing is part of the fun.
>
>> This leaves only Burma as a Japanese objective because no transport is
>> requried however the poor supply route on the Japanese side of the front
> has
>> the effect of reducing any force by over 50 percent. Since the attacker
>> requires 2-1 ratio plus fort level a single Allied div dug in level nine
>> would require 11-1 odds to be lost in a single attack and the Japanese
>> cannot hope to be able to launch multiple attacks because his units will
>> arrive with less then 50 percent required supply.
>> Allied players lose India because they allow Japanese units fresh from
> lack
>> of combat in SRA to be transported by sea with supply in the period
>> Allied
>> air is weak against naval targets. I don't think you'll find a Allied
>> player losing India because SAA marched across Burma in May 1942.
>
> I believe that is true, but I also believe that the Army in Malaya can be
> better used in India for the reasons you describe. Without the Malaya
> army
> the British cannot concentrate the forces they need to stop the seaborne
> invasion. They could pull the troops out of Burma, but if Burma is vacant
> then the Japanese can come through that front, also for the reasons you
> gave. We will see how this plays out over the next 5 or 6 months.
>
>>
>>
>> No the Allied player must fight. Even if it means losing existing units.
>> There is no reason to throw away ships or even air group formations
> because
>> these can retire when they no longer serve a purpose. The combat units in
>> SRA eventually run out of room to retreat but they would also run out of
>> room to retreat in India in the same time period. The differance is in
>> the
>> time it takes to reduce the SRA the Japanese run out of the time they can
>> transport combat formations to where they can mass ratios. The Japanese
>> can't invade Pearl or SF once they have 400+ aircraft defending. The SRA
>> should extract a considerable amount of Japanese transport. The Allied
>> player can afford 5 ac per transport sunk and be breaking even. If he
> sinks
>> a few 10 point ships he is ahead in the bargin.
>
> All true, but the Japanese have to cooperate in that sinking. I'm
> absolutely certain that I launched more aircraft sorties against your
> shipping than any of the other Lunacy players, and I got almost no bombing
> hits. A clever Japanese player can greatly reduce their exposure to
> Allied
> bombing attacks. In the air I even pulled stuff into the SRA from
> Australia
> and India. We just posted intel screens on the Lunacy Game thread and I
> sunk twice as many ships as Nomad, but it was still only 22. Against less
> careful Japanese players I have always sunk over 100 ships by February.
>
>> If Singapore does not require a Japanese division then the Allied player
>> requires a land unit capable of defeating a Japanese division in every
> base
>> that division can reach. There is always the chance the Japanese player
>> will chose the wrong target but it is wrong to fight a campaign where
>> luck
>> is a deciding factor.
>> The garrison of malaya in dec 1942 requires at least half the available
>> Japanes force to defeat and then consumes 60-75 days before refit can
> begin.
>> (A Japanese div that does not refit and prep for next operation goes into
>> that operation already considerablty reduced making the Allied defense
> that
>> much more secure. )
>> The Allied player has an easy task at start. His starting forces are
>> isolated and can't transport out so they must fight. His reinforcements
> all
>> arrive at his most important bases so he simply secures one and then the
>> next as forces arrive. At some point without suffering any loss to units
>> arrving after Dec 7 1941 he will come into contact with the Japanese. The
>> Japanese will be at the limit of their expansion while the Allies will be
>> compressed. The Japanese cannot even dream of being able to provide
> every
>> point with defense capable of defeating a max Allied effort. The Allies
>> will have force enough to succeed and then consolidate their position
> before
>> moving on. This is the phase the Japanese never enjoy. The period where
> new
>> areas can be incorperated into the defense. The Japanese do not gain
> enough
>> strength to defend unless they also win major victories against Allied
> naval
>> forces and destroy material or unless their advance is more rapid then
>> Allied growth. It is exactly here where the Sir Robin fails the Allied
>> player. Thinking to save material (which he has in ample amounts) he
> gives
>> up time (which Japan begins the war short of)
>
> As discussed I agree in principle, but I good Allied player will apply a
> nuanced strategy that takes local conditions into account.
>>
>> Whether or not I can achive these objectives depends on our relative
> abilty
>> to conduct operations. If I fail as Japan it will only highlight what a
> poor
>> player I am in fact. (I'm too sloppy)
>
> I think you play too many games at a time. I could never hold them all in
> my brain at a level of understanding that I would find acceptable.
>
>> I'm sure there exists somewhere a brain that can calculate exactly the
> date
>> Japan loses the war if they have not before then secured their
>> objectives.
>> Understand these objectives are not alwyas bases of high point value but
>> instead are location from which damage can be nflicted on enemy at a
>> ratio
>> that results in 4-1 in 43 or 3-1 in 44. Since a lost Cv requires 550 days
>> for Allied player to recover a major set back early in 43 can lose the
> war.
>> (simply because he would be unable to mount operations that produced
> ratios
>> enough to overcome the Japanese 3-1. The Japanese get 2-1 in 42 simply by
>> doing the bare required operations of securing SRA resources.

[Oleg Mastruko]

Talk is cheap [;)]

Oh wait, we're in this lunacy together... [:D]

[Gen.Hoepner]

great talk. Very interesting.

Thx for posting it

[brisd]

Thanks for the discussion posting, I even understood it, wow!

[Cap Mandrake]

Good discussion. A bit like reading a John Dos Pasos novel with the stream of consciousness thing. Also, I was unable to tell who was who [:)]

[Tom Hunter]

Neither can I

What difference does it make?

[Brady]

It is interesting.


Though I dont entirely argee with everyting in it.

[Bradley7735]

Scores for troop losses is as follows:

1pt for 6 squads/vehicles/etc for Japanese
1/12 for Chinese
1/3 for all allied except Chinese, Russian and Philipines
1/6 for Russian
1/? for Philipines. I think it's 1/12, but may be 1/6

At least that's what the manual says.

[Arkady]

yes, it is 1 for 12 for Philipines
I just checked something in manual and run into this section

[Sneer]

if anybody think that more 90 days is achievable for allies in SRA is great optimist or plays weak opponent.
90 days is enough to clear SRA/Burma and start invasion of India with 10 div
any result above 50-60 days is good or very good

[Nikademus]

I'm 90 days into a game. Still holding Singapore, Sumatra and Java.

Naturally it's because I put the 'Supreme' into "Supreme commander"

[:D]

[Mike Solli]

Nik sure is modest.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Neither can I

What difference does it make?

Not much. I am surprised nobody mentioned the Russian Winter or Lee's decision to attack the center of the Union line [;)]

[Nikademus]

This is true.....I havn't yet started reffering to myself in the 3rd person yet. Getting there though......

Stay tuned on the History channel! There's a new documentary special coming up titled

"Mac and me"
(A story of two military geniuses)

[rtrapasso]

"Mac and me"
(A story of two military geniuses)

[Skyros]

Don't you mean Mac and Cheese.[:'(]

ORIGINAL: Nikademus

This is true.....I havn't yet started reffering to myself in the 3rd person yet. Getting there though......

Stay tuned on the History channel! There's a new documentary special coming up titled

"Mac and me"
(A story of two military geniuses)

[Sneer]

none of my PBEM opponent did not even go close to 90 in SRA
and some of them are really good

i do not like to give anybody even slightest chances for doing that cos it makes war too difficult if initial progress is so slow

[Sardaukar]

One can start to withdraw Dutch units to Java from "unimportant places" like west coast of Borneo and west coast of Sumatra when political points allow and build up nicely in Java. Java can hold even when surrounded because it produces support on it's own. With air units from Singapore it can get even quite difficult to invade. But determined IJ player can most likely grab Java, it just takes more than couple of SNLFs to achieve then. Borneo and Palembang etc. are virtually undefendable with forces Allies have in early war. Timor needs suppy which can be difficult to maintain.

[Nikademus]

I'll often move a few of the Dutch units to Java to stiffen the defense but there's something also to be said for leaving the scattered Dutch units where they are too. They act like magnets, drawing Japanese attention....."I have to clear my rear area of enemy forces!" syndrome. Even after i won the main event in 2/42 of my game with Kaiser i still ended up having to spend a few weeks mopping up these isolated units such as those on the west coast of Sumatra etc.....a pain in the butt but it made for a neater map.

[:D]

[Sneer]

waste of time - let them starve

the only thing commander can't cope is lost time