Strategic Decisions in Feb 1942

[Tom Hunter]

Be careful in the Phillipines, if all you have is a division he can counter attack and kick you around.

You might also think about taking Hawaii. If you do that you will destroy a lot of ground units that will come back at you later in the game. It is probabley possible to win in Hawaii and then turn back and crush China. But if India is well managed then taking Hawaii will give India too much time to build up.

Your opponent will also be very weak because his units will not have trained up by fighting. So when you do hit India the Hurricane groups will be XP 50 or 55. That will give you an intial edge and you should plan to hit as hard as possible so that he does not train up his pilots and ground troops.

In my Lunacy AAR I occasionally discuss improvements in troop and air unit quality from the Allied perspective. You might want to take a look.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

Take Java, Singapore and Manila before you start another offensive.

Personally, I think you are, or on the verge of being over extended. The last thing you want to do is start another offensive without knowing where he is concentrating his forces. If you attack anywhere other than where his forces are, you run the risk of him launching an offensive when you are mired down elsewhere and unable to respond effectively.

Chez

I agree that if i were in your shoes, after finishing of Sing, PI and Java ASAP, I wouldn't be thinking in terms of taking more ground as much as killing divisions. Taking more ground, even in India won't help much unless you can take out divisions and brigades.

[John 3rd]

I agree. Over the weekend, I have been dropping the Singapore Forts fast. Got a 4-1 last turn. It will fall soon. I am now fully taking on Java and should have it by the end of March. The Philippines will be the last to fall.

I have thought about the Hawaii Invasion possiblity and it is intriguing. Talk about FORCING a battle! Only problem would be bases close enough to support initial landing. Guess Midway and Johnson could fix that. Has anyone tried this in April-May 1942? Would 5-6 Inf Div with support be enough?

Other then Hawaii, India seems the next best site for a massive land battle. India would have the advantage of LBA and established bases. Could also gain Resources, Heavy Industry, etc... British Navy is NO threat to IJN!

Thoughts?

[moses]

I really see no problem with an invasion of Hawaii. The problem the allies have early on is they just don't have enough fighters. KB can with ease neutralize the Hawaian Air force and then landings can take place without much difficulty.

The only wild card is the american carriers. These have the potential to be troublesome. Japan will need to be careful to avoid placing KB in an awkward position. But KB has such an overwhelming advantage early in the game that he almost has to try in order to give the allies an even fight.

I would just pound Hawaii for 3 or 4 turns and then leave for a few weeks to restock aircraft, sorties, and fuel. KB returns in early January with the mass transport fleet and finishes Hawaii off.

Really what can the allies really do about it?

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
I have thought about the Hawaii Invasion possiblity and it is intriguing. Talk about FORCING a battle! Only problem would be bases close enough to support initial landing. Guess Midway and Johnson could fix that. Has anyone tried this in April-May 1942? Would 5-6 Inf Div with support be enough?

Your opponent will have level 9 forts and probably lots of mines at PH. And you'll face a sizeable CAP. Betties from Johnson can reach PH, but they'll have no escorts and will not do enough damage to close the airfields anyway. Thus you'll have to employ KB, and that's a dangerous course. Even a 500lb bomb may take out a carrier. And if he has moved a third US division to PH you'll probably even need 8-9 divisions to receive the necessary odds...

Other then Hawaii, India seems the next best site for a massive land battle. India would have the advantage of LBA and established bases. Could also gain Resources, Heavy Industry, etc... British Navy is NO threat to IJN!

India is doable, but the RN is far from being worthless (even the "R"-Class BB's have sizeable guns and the British carriers are armoured; and with PDU you'll face Seafires quite soon). Otherwise your assumptions are correct, but the conquest of India may require a lengthy campaign involving many divisions that you could miss elsewhere all too soon.

[Yamato hugger]

There are 3 problems with hitting Hawaii:

1) US forces can have as many as 5 divisions there by the end of Dec 41.

2) Costal defense guns.

3) Its a long way from Japan. Any ships that you get with flood damage are going to sink before you can get them into a level 3 port.

Only real plus to it is if you do manage to capture it, you can hold until the allies have 6 Essex carriers. That is assuming the allies even bother to re-take it.

[Kereguelen]

LOL, seems that I disagree with moses here. But his game is in February 1942, too late for an invasion of Hawaii IMHO.

K

[moses]

I would take the surrounding islands and just leave Oahu to rot. Once several betty squadrens are established on the big island there will be nothing the allies can do for some time.

Oahu can be pounded for several months until it is out of supply and then invaded.

Even 6 months into the game I don't see a very good allied defense unless KB has been damaged in some significant way.

Five allied divisions won't be a problem once supply is shut off. A couple weeks of heavy battleship bombardments combined with bomber attacks will reduce the unsupplied force at a steady rate.

You can take all of 42 to finish the job so theres no rush.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

There are 3 problems with hitting Hawaii:

1) US forces can have as many as 5 divisions there by the end of Dec 41.

2) Costal defense guns.

3) Its a long way from Japan. Any ships that you get with flood damage are going to sink before you can get them into a level 3 port.

Only real plus to it is if you do manage to capture it, you can hold until the allies have 6 Essex carriers. That is assuming the allies even bother to re-take it.

Also, what is really to be gained long term by taking hawaii? So the US has to retake it in 43. THey can still ship supplies to the South Pacific and it slows them down, but you can't know the US out of the war. Maybe there is some merit if you look at it as a precursor to an attack on India. Keep the US from shipping forces to SE asia. Taking Hawaii can be done. I have read AARs by players who have done it, I just don't know that its very important for the Japanese. Plus, there is the problem of supplying and defending it half a world away from Japan. Finally, how many troops are there now. He could easily have 5 divisions and lots of coastal artillery there.

[moses]

Advantages:

1.) lots of VP.
2.) Rest of central pacific falls as there is no base of operations around which the allies can organize a defence.
3.) Kill tons of planes and all the ships in the harbor.
4.) Allied player will likely attempt to use his carriers giving you a good chance to kill them. Any allied player who won't use his carrier to defend Hawaii is just going to retreat everywhere anyway.
5.) You now have a fantastic base which you can use to raid the West Coast ports on a repeated basis.

Many of the expected disadvantages aren't as bad in the game as in real life.

1.) Supply is not an issue. Japan has tons of it and lots of ships to bring it to Hawaii. IRL yes. In the game No.
2.) Put 5 or 6 betty squadrens in Hawaii and have KB nearby and the allies will not be able to even think of a counterinvasion until late 43 if then.

[Yamato hugger]

Trying to operate an air blockade right on top of PH would be suicide.

First is the problem of supply. PH is an excellent sub base. And the subs can load mines there. So any resupply convoys you send in will have to have a lot of escorts, and minesweepers. Virtually any damage at all to a ship is generally going to be fatal because of the distance to a repair port.

Secondly is that until you have some of the outlying bases built up to level 5, you are using reduced bomb loads on your Bettys/Nells. This means no torpeedos. This also means your Bettys/Nells are going to eat a lot of BB bombardment TFs. This means you are going to have to station some BBs here to counter it.

Thirdly is that US CVs can fly land based air units in from outside Betty range. Your only hope is to run PH out of supply and keep it out of supply. This makes PH the "Malta" of the Pacific. 1 resupply convoy makes it in, and its good for another 6 months.

Even just blockading Hawaii would consume the bulk of the IJN's air and sea forces for many months.

[moses]

Oh please an air blockade would be easy. The allies have nothing in the air in the first months. Japan is overwhelmingly superior. KB can shut down all the allied bases and then all you need are 2 or 3 Sally groups and a squadren of zero's to keep things shut doiwn for good.

With KB around any allied attampts to intefere will be quite risky and likely to fail. In any event once a few Betty groups are operational all is lost for the allies in this area.

Use of PH as a port is obviously a bad idea if KB and LBA are pounding the port on a daily basis. So subs and surface ships are not much of a threat.

OF course again I am talking about the game and not real life. IRL things would have been much more difficult.

[John 3rd]

Moses--It is ALWAYS good to get sound advice from my worthy opponent in my other PBEM! (Aren't you at school too...?

I appreciate all the other advice from fellow Forum members. While at school, I am reading these updates and thinking about it. I like the idea of forcing a MASSIVE battle for Hawaii. If I do it before the Zero bonus fades out, that will help. With Midway and Johnson in my hands, I have a launch pad.

Since I have 1 full Inf Div and two Brigades in the SE Pacific, I could easily swing up against Midway, Palmayra and Johnson. The Divisions could prep for the landing and have two weeks in an AP for further prepping.

Would start with Hawaii and cut-off PH. Moses' advice is quite sound and I like it.

The KB will number 12 carriers pretty soon and SHOULD easily take out the US Fleet!

MORE IDEAS????

Is there a good AAR that has had this happen?

[Yamato hugger]

ORIGINAL: moses

With KB around any allied attampts to intefere will be quite risky and likely to fail. In any event once a few Betty groups are operational all is lost for the allies in this area.

Use of PH as a port is obviously a bad idea if KB and LBA are pounding the port on a daily basis. So subs and surface ships are not much of a threat.

OF course again I am talking about the game and not real life. IRL things would have been much more difficult.

I would love for the Jap player to do this. Not only is the KB committed and I know where it is (that in and of itself makes it worthwhile) but now you are using up precious aircrew bombing an AA inferno.

Also note: how effective have you seen army planes vs naval targets? Sallys arent near as effective as Nells or Bettys. Or at least thats been my experience every time I have run the gauntlet getting troops out of Singapore.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Moses--It is ALWAYS good to get sound advice from my worthy opponent in my other PBEM! (Aren't you at school too...?

I appreciate all the other advice from fellow Forum members. While at school, I am reading these updates and thinking about it. I like the idea of forcing a MASSIVE battle for Hawaii. If I do it before the Zero bonus fades out, that will help. With Midway and Johnson in my hands, I have a launch pad.

Since I have 1 full Inf Div and two Brigades in the SE Pacific, I could easily swing up against Midway, Palmayra and Johnson. The Divisions could prep for the landing and have two weeks in an AP for further prepping.

Would start with Hawaii and cut-off PH. Moses' advice is quite sound and I like it.

The KB will number 12 carriers pretty soon and SHOULD easily take out the US Fleet!

MORE IDEAS????

Is there a good AAR that has had this happen?

While I agree that the Japanese player COULD take PH with RELATIVE ease, again, why? You will need a minimum of 4-5 Divisions and 4-5Bdes as your opponent will have 3+ divisions there I would assume and you will loose 1/3 of your force in the landing. But once there, what are you going to do besides eat pineapples and lounge on the beach. You could stay until the end of the war and it really won't make a huge difference to the US. I would just go around your forces there until I felt like taking the area back. IN my games, PH is nothing for me other than a nice ship repair yard and a convenient place to park aircraft. you will loose a lot of groung forces taking it and you will need a super strong garrison to hold it.

There is no island, other than perhaps Rabaul that is so strategically importnat that it must be held by either side, so PH is of minimal strategic importance to Japan. Killing US divisions is nice, but killing 3 or so won't even come close to winning you the war and your opponent is rather dense if he makes PH an all out fight for survival. He won't risk his carriers because he will see PH for the trap it is. If you garrison PH with enough Bettys and Nells to fend off a determined attack, you won't have them available to defend the Solomons or SRA. Unless you need the victory points, PH is a poor use of very scarce resources. [:-]

THere is an AAR about someone taking PH, I don't know whose it is. The person had not completed the invasion when I read it, but had made considerable progress. He did it by taking the bases around PH first and getting his LBA into the picture. He used the KB sparingly I believe. Ground losses were still very heavy. Also, I don't know what he did with PH after he had it. Used it as a vacation resort I imagine. [8D]

[John 3rd]

The question would have to revolve around balance. This effort would require the VAST bulk of the IJN and ready Infantry. Quite probably, the vast majority of the Fleet Air Arm would be used as well. I could easily transfer, in a gradual movement, 150-200Z and Betty/Nell.

Why would I have to run the AA Gauntlet? Sweeps to take care of the Fighters, attack where the enemy Troops are not TOO strong (such as the big island--Hawaii) and gradually roll-up the American defense.

I'd use heavy CAP to protect the AP/AK. After a few attacks, his bomber morale would be pretty low and they would become more ineffective. He wouldn't be able to bring in more planes and squadrons.

Whatever ships are in PH would just sit and wait. As soon as they sortied, they would be DEAD MEAT! If they don't sortie, then they just sit there and do nothing. As the pressure would mount, Wolfpack would be forced to make the decision to sail them or scuttle them.

The REAL goal would be to sink the American Fleet! He has already lost Enterprise and Lexington and I am certain that the others are close to Pearl Harbor.

An attack into India would bring about some new resources and HI but will it substantially effect the outcome of the conflict? I am open to suggestions...

[John 3rd]

From my point-of-view, this is an excellent sounding board like I used about my choices in my other campaign versus Moses. I have AT LEAST a month to finish off Java and the Philippines. Figurer earliest offensive would be be is late-April and/or early-May. Without the invasion bonus, I WILL have to prep into the 60s.

India or Hawaii??? That is the question...

[moses]

Losing Hawaii is a crusher for the allies. The west coast is totally unprotected. How do you defend against air raids against the west coast ports? Now I suppose you can take the view that you're going to lose so why take anything. But I think that the best possible defense line for Japan would be to hold Oahu.

No ships can exist in PH once a group of Sallies and one group of zero's is in range. You bomb every day and hit a couple ships in port every day. So what if you lose 100 Sallies. After a month there is nothing left in port. The allies just don't have the fighters to maintain air superiority. Any fighters they put up will be quickly destroyed in the air. Even if they bring in everything they have, it just takes one big raid by KB to crush the airfield.

[Nikademus]

never had it done to me so perhaps thats why i just cant see Hawaii as being a good Japanese investment. Would require troopage, aircraft and ships that are needed to take the resource rich areas.

[Yamato hugger]

ORIGINAL: moses

Losing Hawaii is a crusher for the allies. The west coast is totally unprotected. How do you defend against air raids against the west coast ports? Now I suppose you can take the view that you're going to lose so why take anything. But I think that the best possible defense line for Japan would be to hold Oahu.

No ships can exist in PH once a group of Sallies and one group of zero's is in range. You bomb every day and hit a couple ships in port every day. So what if you lose 100 Sallies. After a month there is nothing left in port. The allies just don't have the fighters to maintain air superiority. Any fighters they put up will be quickly destroyed in the air. Even if they bring in everything they have, it just takes one big raid by KB to crush the airfield.

Keeping ships in the port isnt what the allied player should do. Zip subs in, refuel, reload torps/mines and off to Jap supporting bases. Allies win by attrition. BB groups hover 12+ hexes out (with carrier figthers flying LRCAP) waiting for bad weather to zip in and flatten the Jap airbases. Then the transports can move in with supplies.

First of all, 3-4 divisions isnt going to dent the 4+ the allies will have there unless of course you are talking about a Dec 41 invasion, which means you lose because you have nothing left for SRA/PI, so the earliest you could really begin the siege is Feb 42. Jap ships are going to take a beating on the CDUs there unless you spend several weeks softening it up first. Jap aircraft are going to take a beating on the 6+ AA units there. And thats just the PH hex. All the bombing in the world isnt going to prevent PBYs from flying and letting the allied player know what you have where.

Every day the allies get stronger, and the Jap weaker. The longer it takes to siege PH the closer you are to losing. Not everyone plays the allies the way I do, and perhaps a PH attack would work against someone that has spread their forces out. I dont. I stay in nice compact groups that are invunerable to attack until I am ready to strike. You want to simulate an attack on PH against me? Move every CentPac unit to PH and start your invasion Feb 1 and see how you do against yourself. Most west coast air units will be there also.

If the allies have spread themselves out, then it is far easier to gobble up the units he scattered than it is to lay siege to PH. If he hasnt, you arent going to take it.

As for the Japs bombing the west coast ports, with what? Carrier air? Against land based fighters? Sure, you will sink some ships. For a few days. Then what? Going to fight the rest of the war with pilots with an average experience of 40? 1 ding on a Jap carrier that far from a repair yard is nearly always fatal. Land based bombers out-range your Kates and Vals. All the ports have some pretty good coastal defense, so bombarding them is out of the question. Carrier based Vals and Kates cant do enough damage to a size 9 airfield to knock it out of action and keep it down. It is very difficult to sink ships in harbor. You will lose a lot of planes trying. And if the allies are any good at all, the only thing sitting in them harbors is bait for your planes anyway.