Lunacy In The Pacific Mogami Vs. Tom Hunter

[Tom Hunter]

Base forces defend fine, but I need them elsewhere more than I need them in a Japanese prison camp.

There is a rule that prevents LBA from flying against ships that have a strong CAP unless the LBA has escorts. Since the Allies don't have any fighters in the South Pacific at the start of the war there will be no bombing of CV TFs.

Also there are no base forces in the South Pacific, so there is no way to fly planes. That may help explain why I am pulling BFs out of the Phillipines.

I would not have the enemy ships on the screen shot if I did not have search planes would I? All my subs are doing transport work, and frankly sending subs out after CVs is a mugs game in 1942.

Rabaul is a level 3 airbase with support for a dozen or so planes. No B17s there.

US CVs can't go toe to toe with KB until after the second refit. After hte first refit they can jump KB IF it has spent some time attacking a well fortified base, using up ammo and losing planes.

[Tom Hunter]

Here is the strategic map, you can see the main allied convoy routes, and the fluid situation in China. Mogami just moved 23 units into the Changsha hex, which has 4100 AP behind a level 8 fort, both sides have units in the area. The Chinese response is to take the coastal RR and come round from the back, while holding the line at Hsinyang.

The build up in Hawaii can be seen, as can the Indian coastal convoys. Mogami has taken most of Malaya and the NEI and is sending more stuff to Manila.

[Tom Hunter]

And the map

[PimpYourAFV]

Tom you sure don't miss anything. Those convoys look immune to the IJN aren't they? Like they'd need a strong TF along with AOs to get anywhere near them right? As well as heading into allied land bomber range. I like the sub patrol line too. Your Hawaii position is making Kursk sound like a tree clubhouse manned by preschoolers.

For Changsha, I guess an attack by the Chinese is out of question so you are going to cut off its supplies? Here's an idiotic newbie question if you don't mind... where'd Mog get so many high powered units from? Did he bring in troops from the SRA amphibious invasion forces? I'm thinking of the campaign's beginning position. Did he ship units in? No right? Are some from Manchukuo or somewhere else? Please advise. I need help cause I'm heading into a new IJN game now and wanna do better than get crushed. [:)]

[Tom Hunter]

The convoys are not immune, they are just small. So if they get hit a few die but most get away. Even the KB raid between Pearl and the West coast only sunk 6-10 merchant ships, everything else just scattered and then arrived in Hawaii a week or so behind schedule.

Japan has lots of high powered units. You should open the game in head to head mode, and look around. That would answer a lot of your initial questions, but it will lead to more complex questions later.

[Tom Hunter]

Phillipine supply watch
Feb 2 7613
Feb 3 8253
Feb 4 did not check
Feb 5 7788

I forgot about an AK and it tried to get to Manila on its own, I am not even sure it was carrying supply. A group of 18 Betties in Legaspi found it for me. [:@] There is one more 4500 AK in open water East of the Phillipines waiting for bad weather to try and run in. I may try one more ship, but it does seem as if Mogami has the gate shut tight now.

China has so many battles going on I am going to map it next turn. I don't know if I am winning, but I have no reason to feel disasitfied at the moment. A key peice of Chinese success is the capture of over 20,000 supply from the Japanese in the last month. This has kept China's operational tempo high.

Japanese troops are in Singapore, the city is expected to fall any day.

In the South Pacific Allied troops have arrived at Thursday Island and are building up to support Port Moresby. There is also a base force at Guadalcanal, the airbase is half way up to level 1. There are also bases forces in Noumea, Efate, Luganville and Koumac. I am building up the stop line bases first, and then pushing forward to engange the Japanese. That will cause Mogami to have a progressively more difficult time as he attempts to advance in the region.

Hawaii continues to recieve supplies and will get more men soon. I have over 2 divisions of stuff on the West Coast waiting for APs to be organized into convoys. Some is heading for CenPac, others for North Pac and SouthPac. So far I am following historical command designations as I build up. This will start to change soon, as Hawaii becomes very strong and NorthPac builds up enough to support Russia I will move more resources to SouthPac to get the war going in ernest. That will happen in April/May after the Zero bonus is gone and the US CVs are both more numerous and better armed.

India continues its build up. I find it very difficult to get more than a few hundered AP into any given location, I think the whole country together has no more than 3000 Assualt Points and that includes the army from Malaya! The Chinese SEAC troops are arriving in Myitikyna now and from there they are being flown to India. As they fill out they will give me another 1000+ APs. Bases are being built up all over the country, just about every city is now above an L3 fort and several are in the 5 or 6 range. Likewise strategically important airfields are being built up. The situation is still precarious but it gets better every day.

I Burma the air battle continues. I bomb every day in an effort to improve pilot quality. Sometime Mogami ambushes me and kills 5-10 planes. On January 30th I tried hitting back over Moulmein with 40 Hurricanes and met 8 Zeros. When it was over 5 Hurricanes were down and 3 Zeros, but I started at 5 to one odds with altitude advantage. I watched a lot of "Zero Evades" messages and came to the conclusion that I should stick to gaining XP by bombing until the Zero bonus fades. Bombing has hit many of his units coming through Thailand to Burma slowing them, disrupting and fatiuging them and causing them to use more supply. So my training efforts are getting me a double benefit. Still more and more of Mogami's troops are closig in on the Burmese border, so this battle is going to change soon.

[Tom Hunter]

Focus on China today





On Feb 5th the Chinese set up for a shock attack after seeing this result for a bombardment attack on the 4th:

Ground combat at Changsha
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 153659 troops, 1172 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 133273 troops, 1485 guns, 14 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
522 casualties reported
Guns lost 24

But it was too late, as you can see on the map the Japanese pulled out. All the troops in Changsha are now moving up the rail line one hex to see if they can catch the Japanese. The troops in Hegchow will follow into Changsha. Those troops delt a setback to the Japanese on the 3rd with this attack:
Ground combat at Hengchow

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 25758 troops, 210 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 21550 troops, 262 guns, 6 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 3 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
256 casualties reported
Guns lost 10
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
525 casualties reported
Guns lost 28
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

It is doubtful that the Japanese are still moving on Hegchow at the moment, and even if they are it will only be about half the units in the hex, so China can easily throw them out. I don't expect anything really exciting in the Changsha area, but there will be a lot of movement back and forth as we each try to knock the other off balance.

North of Changsha the Chinese army that was at Hsinyang is coming South to block the river crossing. It will have about 2,000 AP in the hex by the 7th.

North of Nanking about 100,000 Chinese troops and the armored brigade are marching South. A probing attack by 1/3 of a division found the city defended by 3 weak units, if China can move the troops fast enough it may be possible to take the town by coupe de main. Or it will be the start of a debaucle, China is just that way.

Finally Northwest of Peking 40,000 Chinese troops bombarded the Japanese garrison:
Ground combat at Kaigan
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 42547 troops, 330 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 22041 troops, 246 guns, 0 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported

The Chinese are tired but in good supply, most of the Japanese are BF troops, there is one combat regiment in the hex. The Chinese are bringing up 2 more corps and then they will shock attack the place.

Last of all the Japanese unit North of the Hwang Ho river (hex says Ho) is 200 guys from an artillery unit that are being chased by a Chinese corps. They have already been shock attacked twice and I am hoping to give them the distinction of being the first Japanese land unit eliminated by by the Allies. Not strategically important, but fun.

I believe Mogami is off balance at least for the moment. If the Chinese grab Nanking then they can keep him off balance a bit longer, Kaigan would help too but is not so important.

Nanking will help the Chinese supply situation and it will also disrupt the flow of supplies to Wuhan, slightly reducing Japanese offensive power. There is always the possiblility that the Chinese forces near the coast will be isloated, but if they have good supply it will be possible to rescue them. I don't think either China or Japan can cut off and destroy a major force in the forseeable future, both sides have large armies that are not committed and can rescue any group of troops that might be isloated temporarily.

Stratigcally I am pleased. The Chinese army continues to improve in quality which is a major goal. The attack on Canton did not take the city (I never expected it to) but the troops coming out of that battle are in the 45 to 50 XP range, going in they were 36 to 44. That is a 20% increase in their ability to fight.

Chinese supply continues to be abundant. The combination of China's own production, the 500 a day from the Ledo Road and the 20,000 captured from Japan means that China has more troops and supply now than at the start of the game. Japan may actually have some small supply problems with so much of the rail line in Chinese hands, and Chegting is not producing supply at all (due to really serious combat damage) Even if the Chinese cannot hold Nanking taking it will permanently reduce Japanese supply production in China, just as taking Chengting already has.

Finally this effort is likely to be straining Mogami. He has a lot to think about since he must be planning an attack on either Russia, India, Hawaii or the US West Coast. He cannot win without doing at least one of these. In the mean time the Chinese are running all over the place attracting Mogami's attention and a sizable chunk of the Japanese airforce. At the start of my first offensive moves Mogami suggested that I was going forward too early, and that a Chinese player should wait until one or two months had passed in order to get his troops into position. Perhaps he laid his plans on that basis and simply assumed that China would be run in accordance with his own thoughts?

I do expect him to get things organized and under control at some point. But for the moment China is one of the few places the Allies can hurt the Japanese so make hay while the sun shines.

[anarchyintheuk]

He must be very committed to Russia. I doubt he will slog some of his troops back to deal with it and he'll wait until Russia is conquered for revenge.

I agree with you about "training" China's army. To some extent it's more important than supply or casualties.

[Tom Hunter]

Actaully a lot of troops left China heading down to Burma. I bomb the jungle roads every chance I get and have hit everything from an army HQ to a mortar battlation, and identified those two units, plus a couple of divisions and some base forces.

The bombing is helping my airforce improve its pilot quality and slowing Japanese prep for an invasion a bit. But like China most of my efforts are focused on improving the awful quality of my units by engaging them in relatively safe combat.

[Tom Hunter]

Phillipine supply watch:
Feb 6: 7308
Feb 7: 6836
Feb 8: 6375

He is bombing the port every day to get supply down, on the 8th he tried another shock attack:
Ground combat at Manila
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 264482 troops, 2361 guns, 464 vehicles
Defending force 90901 troops, 873 guns, 207 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 6)
Japanese ground losses:
11612 casualties reported
Guns lost 144
Vehicles lost 42
Allied ground losses:
1014 casualties reported
Guns lost 43
Vehicles lost 1

Mogami said he was trying a different leader, and this guy did do a better job, the last one lost 17,000. Moral of the Allied army is high and disruption is low in the combat units, so until supply goes down things will be ok. At current consuption Manila has supply for 12 days, wich would be Feb 19th. There is a 4500 AK 2 hexes West of Aparri which was not picked up by Japanese recon last turn. Weather was heavy percipitation then, it has changed to percipitation which is bad news but maybe the boat will get through. If it makes it and unloads then Malina will make it to March.

Nothing important has changed in China, Kaigan will get shock attacked this turn and Nanchang will be hit in another day. Those two attacks will either be China's high water mark or the start of further advances for the Chinese.

India is mostly in position, and is now building up and waiting for the Japanese attack. I will post a map when I have time.

Burma continues to launch nusaince air attacks on the Japanese. The 104 Division was bombed 1 hex South of Moulmein, and the 55th was hit on a road in Thailand. Most Allied air groups are in the low 60s XP wise, with a handful in the 50s and a handful in the high 60s or low 70s.

The South Pacific continues to build up, the Marine division will arrive in Noumea within a day or two. Guadalcanal will become a level 1 airbase soon as well and an AV is at Munda providing search coverage of the area South and East of Rabaul. Gull force and a BF are at Thursday Island, 26,000 supply is in Port Moresby and an Australian Brigade is on it's way. Mogami did make some moves designed to disrupt my efforts in the area, and perhaps he was hoping to catch larger forces, but he only got an AKs or two and a few planes. I am pushing men and material into the Solomons but doing it slowly only after the bases in the Port Moresby-Cooktown-Thursday Island triangle and the forces in Noumea, Luganville and Efate are established. All of those locations have base forces and rapidly expanding air bases and (more importantly) air forces. I am not ready to take on Mogami yet but the position is getting stronger all the time. That is why I watch the Phillipines so closely, when it falls Mogami will be able to launch another offensive and knowing when that can happen is very helpful for my own preperation.

Central Pacific has seen the arrival of an RCT at Palmyra, and base forces at Kona and Lanahai. That gives me 3 bases in Hawaii with over 200 air support. Supply in Pearl Lanahai and Kona is 120k, 85k and 45k respectively and there is a base force on the other base on the big island providing an additional 30 air support at a reserve field with 20k supply. There are about 300 aircraft in the islands, which is not really enough but if Palmyra is Allied more can be flown in from the South Pacific.

North Pacific is building up Kiska as a staging base to support Russia, and has a couple of AVs and some re-assigned Canadian search planes as well. I don't expect much to happen up there but if it does the place is somewhat ready.

I see regular reports of Japanese units prepping for Russian bases, and I don't see those reports for anywhere else. Considering that he has 270,000 men outside Manila who are all prepping for that location it seems that a ton of stuff is getting ready for Russia. Russia is going to be in big trouble when the hammer drops, the only good thing is the Chinese have moved the border between the two countries a lot closer over the last few weeks.

[Tom Hunter]

Just a look at Burma this time.

The Allies have been launching regular bombing raids on the Japanese from Rangoon, Akyab and Mandalay. This is mostly to train the pilots up but it also slows the Japanese troop concentration.

The 6 Japanese units in Mersing are up from 4 a few days ago. We know (from bombing attacks) that at least one division is at Tavoy and more are coming. On the other side of the river 3 brigades and a Chinese SEAC division at 132 AP are waiting.

On Feb 10 Mogami decided that these raids were too much of a nusiance and hit Rangoon:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
G3M Nell x 41
G4M1 Betty x 48
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 69
Ki-15 Babs x 3

Allied aircraft
Hurricane II x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 1 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane II: 9 destroyed
Hawk 75A: 1 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
39 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Airbase hits 9
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 35

I had switched the Hurricanes from Escort to ground but forgot to take them off 80% escort, Mog shot down all of them. Today I pulled everything out of Rangoon and ordered all of the base forces out as well. I had already started a couple of base forces moving because it was obvious the battle of Burma was going to start soon, Mogami's raid just confirmed the wisdom of my decision.

I do plan to fight at Mandalay. The Allies have all the units that start in Burma, plus to SEAC Chinese that were flowin in and have recived enough replacements to be 131 and 120 AP each. Mandalay is a level 3 fort and climbing.

Behind all this are some very large air bases in the Dacca-Calcutta area with large AV units. Once the Japanese advance into Burma the Blenhiems and other bombers at these bases will be able to join the fray. Dacca is level 8 with Pierse (air factor 60) in an RAF HQ and 269 AV. So it ought to be a tough fight for Japan.

I don't want any air to air battles yet, the Zero bonus is still to great, I want to bomb the Japanese on the ground. In March my fighters (now in the low 60s) ought to be at or near 70 XP at that point the Zero bonus is 2 and I will have some chance if I pick the right fights. From there on in things just get better.

[PimpYourAFV]

Mog must be a master of mustering up forces considering he's got stuff prepping for Russia, holding in China, massed next to Manila as well as possibly getting ready to move on Burma and India. His homeland must be naked or something but that would take too many political points to move I think. Any chance on dropping in somewhere unguarded and then running away with like a small group of transports lightly loaded? Where's the KB at now? I reckon Mog going on a Hawaiin tour is out of the question but from what you say there's probably no harm at all in toughning it up. Unless Mog is good at deception and preps units for Russia or Burma which aren't going anywhere just to generate fake intel warnings.

[Tom Hunter]

My memory is fuzzy but I thought that I have either seen them, or read about paradrops into empty hexes. I will have to open up the game and try sometime.

Honestly it had not occurred to me that it would be impossible to drop them in the open.

TokyoBoy you can try hit and run raids in your games, then write them up in an AAR. I gather they work for some people, but they are not my style.

[Gen.Hoepner]

AFAIK you can only drop paras on Base hexes. So if you want to get your shoulders covered better to place those anti-para units at Pagan and in th other empty base south of Mandalay....

[Tom Hunter]

Phillipine supply watch
Feb 9: 6210
Feb 10: 6002
Feb11: 5770
Dropping about 200 a turn, so Manila should last until the end of February. But wait, what is steaming past Corregidor? Could it be a blockade runner?
Feb 12: 6044 unloaded 500
Feb 13: 6824 unloaded 1000

I have intel reports of at least 2 Japanese units on transports heading for Naga. Mogami is gathering his forces for the killing blow. But the fort is level 6 and climbing, and as long as the supply levels stay up it is going to be very hard to get these guys to surrender. With a little luck the Phillipines will last until or after the date of the historical surrender.

What are the Allies doing with the time that MacArthur is buying them in the Phillipines?
For a partial answer take a look at this map of the South Pacific:




The map shows the airbases and forts that are under development in the South and SouthWest Pacific. For example Rabaul has an L3 airbase and an L3 fort at 38%. Thursday Island has an L1 airbase 22% of the way to L2 and no fort under construction.
Munda is a Seaplane base which I hope to add a base force to soon. Lunga has a base force that got out of the Phillipines in late December, PM is getting an Aussie brigade, Thursday has a base force from Tasmania and Gull Force for ground troops.

The Cooktown-Port Moresby-Thursday Island triangle is coming along pretty well, in another 2 weeks the 3 bases should be able to provide mutual support in the event of a Japanese attack.

Further South Noumea, Luganville, Koumac and Efate are all being built up. I got 4 base forces out of the Phillipines on AKs and these forces are in Koumac, Efate, and on a ship to the SouthPac area. Having them has allowed the Allies to build up the South Pacific and put a lot into Hawaii and some into the North Pacific at the same time. I am not sure Mogami is aware of this or understands the position that the Allies are building up.

The Guadalcanal-Munda position is the most tentative. Originally I was not going to build it up at all, but then I tried one BF in Lunga and with the Phillipines holding on for a long time I may have over a month to get things ready. I am betting on Mogami's methodical nature, he will want overwhelming force, which means he needs the 267,000 men outside Manila and the air groups. So if Manila lasts until mid-March I have another month to prep this area. By then I can have over 300 aircraft availalbe, plus the Americal and Marine divisions and all sorts of good support. Given enough time I can make this area the location of a hell of a fight.

Further South the Hermes and an R class BB are at Sydney and Prince of Wales and some cruisers and DDs are at Noumea.

Hawaii now has 340 aircraft ready to fight and all the bases are building up nicely, as discussed in an earlier post.

The US West Coast is nearly empty of non-West Coast troops, just about everything is on transports heading for the South Pacific or Hawaii. I am leaving the West Coast troops behind for the moment incase Mogami tries something "clever" But that risk recedes with every day that passes.

In Burma the Japanese crossed the river and launched their shock attack:
Ground combat at 30,34
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 27421 troops, 297 guns, 102 vehicles
Defending force 13962 troops, 150 guns, 0 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
1178 casualties reported
Guns lost 49
Allied ground losses:
226 casualties reported
Guns lost 8

I have been tracking Japanese army loss points, this was thier big loss for Feb 12 and thier army losses went from 350 to 353. In other words almost none of the 1,200 casualties they took are permanent.

Another Chinese division is moving into the hex that will keep the odds at 0 to 1 for a few more days. A number of base forces have left Rangoon and are on the road to Mandalay, when they get there I will concentrate single engine bombers, bomb the Japanese and retreat the ground units into the position in Mandalay and behind the river. Since the Chinese divisions have both arrived and built up strength the Allies may be able to hold Mandalay for a while. Regardless there will be a serious fight for Burma, Rangoon is the last location the British are going to retreat from without a fight.

Singapore Fell on February 9th, only the Fortress Garrison and some part of a base force were defending.

China has been a wild fight over the last 4 or 5 days.

On Feb 9th the Chinese launched two big attacks
Ground combat at Nanking

Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 96712 troops, 625 guns, 74 vehicles
Defending force 27582 troops, 295 guns, 7 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 3)
Japanese ground losses:
495 casualties reported
Guns lost 16
Allied ground losses:
2731 casualties reported
Guns lost 51
Vehicles lost 1
These troops were low on supply and had marched a long way so the coupe de main failed. This attack starts the siege of Nanking, there have been bombardment attacks every day since.

Further North the Chinese also hit hard:
Ground combat at Kaigan

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 49546 troops, 381 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 35926 troops, 393 guns, 0 vehicles

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)
Allied forces CAPTURE Kaigan base !!!
Japanese aircraft
no flights
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-15 Babs: 5 destroyed
Japanese ground losses:
563 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Allied ground losses:
1299 casualties reported
Guns lost 28
This attack captured 17,000 supplies and Japanese army losses on the intel screen went from 283 to 347, by far the largest single day increase of the war.

The following days saw several other smaller attacks by both sides in less valuable hexes. The Chinese followed up to Peking and launched a major attack on the 12th of February:
Ground combat at Peking
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 47679 troops, 310 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 37199 troops, 329 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 3)
Japanese ground losses:
116 casualties reported
Guns lost 11
Allied ground losses:
2835 casualties reported
Guns lost 30

So the Japanese are holding China at bay for the moment, but both sides are moving constantly. In an interesting turnaround many of Mogami's units are off the rail lines, and the Chinese control more rail than the Japanese in China proper. China has captured 37,000 or more supplies from the Japanese so by and large the Chinese armies are well supplied. Troop quality is still a big issue, but the battles at Nanking and Peking are helping. More later as I try to keep the initiative and Mogami struggles to get it back.

[Oleg Mastruko]

You're very tough, ambitious, aggressive opponent. PI holding till historical date?! I gotta remember never to play as IJN vs you... [8D]

O.

[Tom Hunter]

Oleg,

We will see about the PI, Mogami is sending additional troops, if my intel screen is showing me one unit a turn loading APs for Naga there are a lot more than one. He may batter Manila to bits with large numbers. But the supply situation is remarkabley good and that gives me hope. When I first concentrated in Manila I had 19,000 supplies. Since then one ship has unloaded 7,000 and this ship has unloaded 1500 with 3000 more on board. I have checked and moral is high and fatige and disruption low in the combat units, the HQs have significant disruption and fatigue. It is clear that the force Japan has at Manila right now cannot take the place before supply runs out, and is not running the supply down very fast. A larger force may deplete things more quickly.

On the other hand there is a 7000 AK about 4 days away from Manila, if it gets though then things should go on even longer.

Eventually Mogami will figure out what is going on and put more effort into destroying ships and maintaing the blockade. But it may take until March before he figures out that the Americans are not running out of supply on schedule.

[Tom Hunter]

Phillipine supply watch
Feb 14: 7585 unloaded 1000
Feb 15: 3468 unloaded 1000

I think the big drop is explained by either the fort level reaching 7 or the supply level going out of orange and into white. All the ground units in Manila are over required supply, so I believe that when supply levels went past 8000 they sucked up a bunch of supply and dropped it down to 3468.

Mogami sent me this:
for your history.
Currently forces deployed in Manila hex
1048 engineer
86,787 infantry
512 vehicles
3458 guns
208,351 2nd line troops
assault strength 3987
supplies 100,884

I thought SAA would blow through Philippine defense.
This is greatly offset by Singapore falling to forces much inferiour to
planned. (It would be near disaster now if Singapore was active enemy
airfield and bulk of SAA tied down at Manila. ) I think the assaults will
begin reduction of fort levels soon.

Divisions employed will require rest/refit period
to bring a unit from 0 to 100 percent would require approx 3 months
(assuming required supply is present and items exist in production pools)

I suspect he is right about everything but the forts, they may or may not go down with the Americans and Phillipinos in full supply. The ship in harbor has 1000 supply left, and a 7,000 AK is just North of Luzon I think it will arrive in 2 days. Mogami has been getting a sighting report of my AK from a recon plane but has not bombed it, I am not sure if he understands that I am moving supply into Manila or not. I do know that he is moving troops into Luzon, I am not sure how many troops it takes to beat down an L7 fort in a city. We may find out.

In Burma I made the mistake of reinforcing my blocking force by crossing a river:\\Ground combat at 30,34

Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 17481 troops, 167 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 25859 troops, 234 guns, 103 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
80 casualties reported
Guns lost 7
Allied ground losses:
477 casualties reported
Guns lost 19

Not a big disaster but annoying. I was helped by the fact that Mogami is disrupted from his shock attack of a few days before. The base forces that were in Rangoon have arrived in Mandalay or are on there way to Akyab and Myititikyna so the covering force has been ordered to pull back. Serious fighting will start when the Japanese reach Mandalay.

In the air in Burma the Allies did not fly, and the Japanese bombed Rangoon for the 5th day in a row:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 27
G3M Nell x 51
G4M1 Betty x 52
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 33
Ki-15 Babs x 4
Allied aircraft
no flights
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane II: 1 destroyed
Wirraway: 1 destroyed
Vildebeest IV: 1 destroyed
Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 41

China is the other place with lots of action. This is the rail hex due East of Changsha:
Ground combat at 47,37

Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 62495 troops, 514 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 36657 troops, 475 guns, 18 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 7 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
286 casualties reported
Guns lost 11
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
1843 casualties reported
Guns lost 45
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

I believe the Japanese lost another 2-5000 men in the retreat, the Japanese army casualty marker went from 363 to 401 this day. The Japs are now SE of Wuhan in the open with the Chinese in hot pursuit from the rail hex. By now the Japanese may not have supplies and if I hit them again casualites should be higher.

The day before there was a small battle on the mud path hex between Wuhan and Ichang:
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 17624 troops, 122 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 9088 troops, 149 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 4 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Allied ground losses:
212 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

The Allies have also been smacked around, but losing Chinese troops does not count as much. The Japanese have pulled off the occasional small ambush in the air, on the 13th I lost 8 Lysanders near Changsha, but nothing really important.

North of Wuhan I am moving troops out of the blocking force to take Peking. That will be some time in the future. East of Wuhan Mogami is moving a large number of troops to Nanking where this Chinese force is bombarding the Japanese defenders:
Ground combat at Nanking
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 68135 troops, 470 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 29263 troops, 293 guns, 7 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

These troops are well supplied and pretty high quality as Chinese go, most are 50s some 60s. I don't think they can take Nanking but they may be able to defend against Mogamis reinforcements and continue to gain in quality. Also if they last long enough I will be able to double the number of attackers at Peking and possibly take the city.

South Pacific is mainly waiting for more base forces, there is just not enough air support there. Hawaii is a rapidly expanding fortress, India is also building up fast.

Strategically it seems that the key to the next phase of Mogami's plan is to take the Phillipines and release the Southern Area Army for it's next mission. So the longer Manila holds the more time I have to make my own moves. Then the SAA will show up somewhere and start causing me trouble.

The only other active front is Burma. I feel pretty well prepared there and may be able to hold the Japanese at Mandalay, or if not there at Myitikyina. But even if Burma falls completely it is still a side show.

[Tom Hunter]

A short report this time.

Manila Supply Watch;
Feb 16: 4270 the AK was sunk by Kates with 1000 supply still on board
Feb 17: 4028
Also on the 16 another AK inbound was sunk by Japanese PGs not far from Manila. One more ship is on the way, due to arrive in 2 weeks. My best guess is that supply will last 18 days, or till about March 5th. I am not sure how long the ground forces will last after the city supply is gone, or if they will hold until the 5th. Mogami is massing more troops and if he pounds on the place supply will run down faster.

I doubt the garrison will make it anywhere near the historical date of surrender in April, but I am hoping they will hang on until sometime in March.

In China on February 17th the Japanese suffered another small defeat as 2 divisions were chased back to Wuhan:
Ground combat at 48,36
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 59586 troops, 427 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 27119 troops, 404 guns, 12 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 36 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
392 casualties reported
Guns lost 7
Allied ground losses:
1373 casualties reported
Guns lost 30
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
Japanese army losses went from 403 to 440 at 1 VP per 6 items destroyed that is 222 items. The Japanese force has 4519 infantry items, 66 gun items and 2 vehicle items so Japanese losses were about 5% of the total force. Of course the disruption and fatigue levels are much higher, and this is the second time in 3 days this has happened to these two units, so they are down at least 10% and will be needing some rest for a while.

In Burma the Allies are continueing the pullback to Mandalay, there was no serois fighting.

In the South Pacific two Japanese warships were spotted NW of Rabaul/Munda heading SE (towards one or the other of those two bases) AVs and AKs in the area are under orders to leave, but there are only 3 ships total in the area to begin with. A group of Hudsons has joined the Wirraways at Rabual to launch airstrikes if the Japanese come closer and the number of search planes in the area has been increased. Further South the Prince of Wales and various CAs, CLs and DDs have sortied from Noumea. If the Japanese ships include CVs the surface TF will turn around, but if Japan runs a shore bombardment mission against Lunga there might be a confrontation.

No action anywhere else. Another RCT is unloading at Lanahia and large numbers of ground and air units are in convoys approaching the South Pacific.

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

In Burma the Allies are continueing the pullback to Mandalay, there was no serois fighting.

Oh man would you be paying heavy price for this if I was your opponent... [8D]

O.