Lunacy In The Pacific Mogami Vs. Tom Hunter

[jrlans]

Is there any chance he could bypass New Caldonia and go strait for Fiji to disrupt supply lines, Or would that require him to go through way too much LBA?

[AmiralLaurent]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

Fatigue is pretty high because of Malaria but the unit has never been in combat of any type. Mandalay has seen 1 fighter sweep during the war so far.

Supply is fine, I think there is a bug. I agree that units will move slower on a RR when fatigued but not 4 or 2 miles a day. This unit is treating the RR as some other kind of terrain.

Check the direction the 93rd Div is marching. In my game using v1.6something I have allready corrected several units going hiding in the jungle rather than following the railway (clear of any enemy unit or ZOC, one case was in March 1942 between Bangkok and Saigon). It is possible that the Div is not marching NE from Mandalay but another direction.
For me ordering the unit to stop and then givning it the same destination as before has always worked.

[ADavidB]

Fatigue is pretty high because of Malaria but the unit has never been in combat of any type. Mandalay has seen 1 fighter sweep during the war so far.

Supply is fine, I think there is a bug. I agree that units will move slower on a RR when fatigued but not 4 or 2 miles a day. This unit is treating the RR as some other kind of terrain.

It would be nice if Mike or Eric could explain to us what is happening here. Maybe we just have incorrect expectations...

Dave Baranyi

[Tom Hunter]

jrlans

He could go to Fiji, there is no Allied base between Efate and Nandi.

But there are a number of things that make Fiji less attractive. First of all it is not worth as many VP so it does not bring him the victory.

Second its not just my supply lines that get longer and harder to hold if he takes Fiji, how is he going to keep it safe with Americans in New Caledonia and Pago Pago.

Noumea is about to be an L9 port, Fiji has no such base.

There are other reasons it could be trouble as well, including the 2 divisions worth of troops their, the CD guns and the 270 AV base force full of planes, but Mogami does not know about any of them.

We fought a few more days and May is finally over. June is just around the corner, and the hum of Spitfires fills the air. At last a plane that is better than what Mogami has. Also it is another 70 fighters a month, with my loss rates I would be happy with 70 additional P36s, much less Spitfires.

In China the Japanese tried a shock attack on the Chinese near Wuchow. It failed, 2600 casualties for Japan 400 for China. We are both still manuevering down there.

The Japanese sent a big sweep over Mandaly and shot down 42 Hurricanes for a loss of 36 Oscars and a Zero. They had more than 2 to 1 so this is a pretty good result for the RAF. China has about 8 groups in the mid to high 60s right now, when they come back they will get Hurricanes and Spitfires and I think it will be possible to win out and out victories.

South Pacific is noisey but nothing critical has happened. The Allied fleet sits in Aukland cutting down the sys damage, KBs location is not known but Lugaville is full of Oscars again. Sooner or later an Allied bombardment TF will hit it again.

Another RCT is unloading in Noumea, 3 divisions and 4 RCT/Brigades now with more on the way.

My only frustration is that Prince of Wales will not budge on her 8 sys, she has been in port for days but it does not drop. It seems absurd to send a ship to Hawaii for 8 sys damage, but I need her speed up, it is only 25 knots right now which makes her Warspite with more AA and weaker guns.

I am still building up the South Pacific for the defensive but starting to think about offensive moves if the Japanese go for Russia. Manila still reports 150+ transports so I don't think any really big invasions are on the move at the moment.

[Tom Hunter]

A happy day as I get to look at Spitfires accumulating in my aircraft pool. Too bad there will not be any on the map until the middle or end of the month but that is the way it goes. Even longer to get SeaFires operational, that will have to wait until July.


China: Things are still percolating in the South, and Mogami moves 22 units into Changsha with more on the way. He also hits it hard with air, and find my Mohawk training group flying escort over the town. It is the usual story, Zeros rule and Oscars get shot down:

apanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 26
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 35
Ki-30 Ann x 62
Ki-32 Mary x 39
Ki-48 Lily x 54
Ki-46-II Dinah x 5

Allied aircraft
Mohawk IV x 25
Hawk 75A x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 10 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-30 Ann: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-32 Mary: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-48 Lily: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-46-II Dinah: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Mohawk IV: 11 destroyed, 4 damaged
Hawk 75A: 15 destroyed

But 19 Japanese to 26 Allied is not bad when your heavily outnumbered and flying Hawks and Mohawks. Not the battle I am looking for ( I would have avoided it if I knew it was coming) but not bad either.

The battle over China is part of a trend of increasing offensive sweeps by the Japanese, this one struck over Noumea:

Day Air attack on Noumea , at 68,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 99

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 10
F4F-4 Wildcat x 36
P-40E Warhawk x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 21 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 8 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 25 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 13 destroyed

The Americans and Australians are responding by sending another F4F4 group and a Kittyhawk group to rebuild the CAP. I doubt the Japanese have another 20 top notch Zeros in the immediate area so next time the battle will go a bit better.

This is another trend that I like. Japan is still able to create big air battles on favorable terms, but they don't shoot down planes at a 6 to one rate any more. These Zeros did about 2 to 1 and things are going to move closer to one to one as time goes by.

The aggresive moves by Japan cooincide (another trend, we are tending to smack into eachother more often now) with aggressive moves by the Allies. A look at the map shows the plan for a repeat bombardment and air attack on Luganville. It has been a long time since I have flown the 140 planes that make up the LR CAP for the surface TF and I am not sure Mogami knows they are there. Maybe these planes (P40s and P39s( will cause an unpleasant suprise either sooner, or perhaps later over one of the Allied bases

Noumea Build Up June 1 42

Koumac AF 3 AV 196 Fort 4 AP 193 Supply 27168 (more than Manila in Jan 42)
La Foa AF 3 AV 228 (some moving to Koumac) Fort 3 AP 583 Supply 19156
Noumea AF 5 AV 295 Fort 9 AP 980 Supply 203243

Another RCT is unloading at Noumea now and 1st USMC division is a week to 10 days away that will bring the island to near 2500 AP.

[Tom Hunter]

Here is the correct map

[Tom Hunter]

Now a little strategy

Noumea is getting safer every day. When the 1st Marines arrive the AP number will go near or above 2500 making the force on New Caledonia as strong as the army in the Phillipines but with better leadership, better troops and equipment, a vastly larger and superior airforce, a much stronger starting position and over 10 times the supplies. The only thing the Phillipines had that New Caledonia does not are really huge CD guns and urban terrain.

Japan will have a lot of difficulty getting a big army ashore intact and even if it does come ashore in relatively good shape it will not just walk over the Allied forces.

At the same time the Allies are getting important upgrades for the US CVs, some in June others in July. If the CVs are in Pearl upgrading then they cannot smash a depleted Japanese fleet off the coast of New Caledonia. But if they don't have the 33 plane fighter groups then they are significantly weaker in battle.

I am inclined to put off the upgrades for a bit and strengthen the islands more. Eventually New Caledonia will become impossible to take quickly, giving the Americans time to send thier fleet in for decisive intervention on thier own time table. Until then the fleet is going to hang around in Aukland waiting for a chance to strike.

In other news the Prince of Wales finally repaired a point of sys damage and is now at 7.

Finally Mogami sent this note in his email; the question is which of us does it refer too?

Is he mad? Anyway there's something on his mind, as sure as there must be
something on a deck when it cracks.

[anarchyintheuk]

I don't remember the 6/42 upgrades as being particularly important.

[Tom Hunter]

I thought they were the fighter group expansions but maybe that is October? Anyone know off hand? I remember having 33 plane fighter groups in one game with Blackwatch but I have never gotten past September 42.

More on the 93rd Chinese division, after it left the hex to the North of Mandalay it sped up to 45 miles a day. Definitely something to do with the hex.

I have a new slogan for Matrix: If it affects land movement, its is not a bug.

[Ron Saueracker]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I thought they were the fighter group expansions but maybe that is October? Anyone know off hand? I remember having 33 plane fighter groups in one game with Blackwatch but I have never gotten past September 42.

More on the 93rd Chinese division, after it left the hex to the North of Mandalay it sped up to 45 miles a day. Definitely something to do with the hex.

I have a new slogan for Matrix: If it affects land movement, its is not a bug.

36 plane VF totals on US CVs should be July 42.

[jrlans]

Do you need to have them in a repair yard to get the upgrade to 36 fighters or just in a base with enough supply to provide replacement planes?

[Ron Saueracker]

ORIGINAL: jrlans

Do you need to have them in a repair yard to get the upgrade to 36 fighters or just in a base with enough supply to provide replacement planes?

You know, I'm still not "sure" about this or many other things.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: jrlans

Do you need to have them in a repair yard to get the upgrade to 36 fighters or just in a base with enough supply to provide replacement planes?

I'm not really sure either. I had a Japanese CV damaged. I flew off the air groups (originally at 24 per daitai) and the turn after they were transferred to a land base, the Val and Kate daitai increased to a max of 30. Still scratching my head over that. That's not supposed to happen at all.

[Ron Saueracker]

More turns guys![:D] This is getting good.

[Tom Hunter]

Mogami sent this with the June 2 turn:

"By this, he seemed to mean, not only that the most reliable and useful
courage was that which arises from the fair estimation of the encountered
peril, but that an utterly fearless man is a far more dangerous comrade than
a coward."

In China he is now outside Changsha with a substantial army. The Japanese also shock attacked 4 Chinese divisions back to Wuchow and the Chinese troops just North of Wuchow have retreated there as well. They will rest up and then counter attack.

North of Wuhan Chinese troops are moving towards the river. After taking up positions they will force the crossing into the rail hex between Changsha and Wuhan.

The usual air attacks and rotation in and out of China continue.

Burma and India are quiet, skytrains are pulling out the partial strength high fatigue units in Mandalay and replacing them with full strength units as part of the preparation for an offensive.

In response to Mogami's recent tuanting an Armored brigade and the 2nd infantry division have been ordered back to Karachi. Also the Dutch airforce and some Chinese planes have been moved to Karachi, Malir and Bombay and the Royal Navy has sent to cruisers with Walrus's to make a search of the Indian Ocean.

Searches have also been increased in the approaches to Hawaii, and an additional Canadian Kittyhawk group will ship out to Pearl in a day.

On the West Coast Repulse is down to 1 sys but will wait until North Carolina arrives in 15 days. The two Capital Ships will join several cruisers and DDs as escort for the US 37 division and a number of SeaBees heading for the war zone. After they arrive Allied BB strength in the area will be 9 ships, very near parity with Japan.

In the South Pacific an AA unit and the 1st Marine division are about a week away from Noumea. Koumac and Noumea are both at or above 250 AV.

Fighting in the South Pacific has been fierce in the air lately.

On June 1 the Japanese sent a huge sweep:
Day Air attack on Noumea , at 68,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 142
Ki-46-II Dinah x 1

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4
F4F-4 Wildcat x 36
Kittyhawk I x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 29 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 35 destroyed
Kittyhawk I: 12 destroyed

That day the Japanese saw an Allied bombardment TF loitering between Noumea and Luganville, when the ships arrived that night the airfield was empty (June 2 combat report)

Naval bombardment of Luganville, at 72,107 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

32 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
CL Nashville
CL Detroit
CL Raleigh, Shell hits 1
CA Canberra
CA Australia, Shell hits 6
CA Salt Lake City, Shell hits 2

Japanese ground losses:
2132 casualties reported
Guns lost 35

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 9
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 7

Damage to the cruisers was negligable. These ships were escorted by 140 P40s and P39s, it is likely that Mogami was not aware of these planes on Noumea as of June 2.

The F4s at Noumea were all stood down due to the losses of the previous 2 days and Japanese recon planes did not find any CAP over Noumea on June 2. Mogami moved naval bombers into Luganville.

In spite of orders and good weather the US heavy bombers at Noumea did not fly on June 2. In retrospect this may have been a good thing.

On June 3rd lots of bombers flew on both sides.
Allied heavies smacked Luganville:
Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
Hudson I x 1
B-17E Fortress x 87
LB-30 Liberator x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 4 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 13 destroyed
G3M Nell: 2 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 3 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
945 casualties reported
Guns lost 19

Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 83

And the Japanese discovered the two Army Aircorps fighter groups at Noumea:
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12
G4M1 Betty x 11

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 55
P-40E Warhawk x 51

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 12 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 10 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged
P-40E Warhawk: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied Ships
CL Detroit

Further North the Japanese occupied Reef Island where US PBYs had been based to provide search cover for the bombardment attack.

[Tom Hunter]

A little more detail and some strategy

I left upgrade on for the fleet in Aukland. No sign of 33 plane fighter groups on the Lexington and Saratoga. About 6 DDs (of 85) upgraded as well. The fleet is stitting and repairing which is what it was doing before. Prince of Wales is down to 6 sys, another important improvement. In the future having 3 fast BBs will be a huge help in the effort to suppress Luganville and Efate.

The Allies put a PBY unit into Munda on the Nort Coast of New Guinea. I have been using small empty bases to fly search missions at the cost of a few planes. Manila is down to about 100 ships and Mogami is crowing about how his clever plan will win the war so I am sending out more search.

A mortar battalion from Manila was just reported planning for Noumea, this is the second report of that type the Allies have recieved in 6 days.

He is trying to suppress the air power in Noumea but not having much luck, we are getting close to parity in the air. Mogami has been launching attacks with twice as many fighters flying sweep as I have flying CAP and is winning but unlike the early war he takes heavy casualties when he does it. Add the fact that I can shore bombard him from time to time and gaining air superiority over New Caledonia may be impossible.

As mentioned before time is not on his side either. In addition to the improving performance of the US air forces the Australian wirraways on New Caledonia can upgrade to Hurricanes and soon to Spitfires. I have upgraded one Wirrway group to Hurricanes today, when Spits hit 16 planes in the pool I am going to put them into the battle.


Land forces are also continuing to build up, another Aussie division is going to load at Syndey soon, that will bring the Allies to 5 divisions and 5 RCTs on the island.

Of course if he does win it will be a game ender for the Allies, but the odds are moving in my favor at an accellerating rate.

[Tom Hunter]

In China the Chinese prepare to launch a shock attack at Kaigan while the Japanese attempt to cut off Changsha. Mogami is bombing more airfields trying to force the Chinese to use up more supply.

I think (though I am not certain of this) that Mogami will start to need the large airforce he has deployed in China before Chinese supply runs very low. So my plan is to keep fighting hard and hope that I can continue that way until pressure from other places forces Mogami to re-deploy.

Burma and India
More organization and raids. A force of 2 DDs 3 cruisers, a BB and a CV leaves Karachi heading for the South Pacific.

NEI-Phillipines
A convoy including APs runs over a submarine heading East from Manila. A clue? Manila shows 91 ships, a record low. Mogami seems to have launched his force, but where is it going?

North Coast of New Guinea: PBYs locate Japanese shipping at Lae, hudsons at Thursday ordered to attack. The minor conflict aside this really means they did not find anything.

A second BF is about to go into Thursday Island. Once I have 60 AV there I will put a 72 plane P40 group there and then LRCAP Port Moresby. PM is bieng visited by unescorted bombers on a regular basis, so this could be fun.

South Pacific

Allied bombers fail to fly on June 5 but on the 6th they do and over 150 2 and 4 engine bombers plaster Luganville smashing 40 odd Japanese planes on the ground. The Allies are eagerly awaiting the moment Koumac becomes an L4 airfield so that twin engine planes will launch from there on a consistent basis.

2 APDs are dropping supply at Vanikolo then PBYs will fly in. At the same time a TF including 3 US BBs will head to the jump off position. If the coast is clear Efate is going to get clobbered.

Down at Aukland the Prince of Wales is down to 5 sys and most other ships are below it. Saratoga's air group will not turn to 33 planes but she and Lexington did upgrade, but I have no idea what they got for it.

Net-net the balance of power in the South Pacific moved in the Allied direction in the last 2 days after a bit of a surge for Japan the week before. The next big boost for the Allies will be the deployment of 2 more divisions on New Caledonia which I think will end any chance of a rapid conquest by Mogami.

[Tom Hunter]

A large group of Japanese TFs appears North of Noumea. Nothing much happens, partly because one of the Japanese TFs is unable to launch due to weather conditions. Luck and the lack of it goes around.

Over 100 allied bombers flatten Luganville again.

The Allied Response to the appearance of the Japanese fleet:

212 fighters go onto CAP missions over Noumea. This number will actually go up as some damaged F4F4 groups recover.

240 bombers switch to Naval missions.

The Allied Fleets Sortie from Aukland to a point 9 hexes South of Noumea. 7 AOs are waiting there. The fleet consists of:

6 CV TFs 5 US, 1 UK
2 Surface combat TFs a fast one lead by Prince of Wales and a slow one lead by Warspite
1 CVL TF Hermes is loaded for combat, Long Island is carrying 16 RNZAF Kittyhawks.

There are 7 CVs, 2 CVE/Ls 4 BBs, 35 or more cruisers and over 80 DDs in this fleet. Another fleet in Noumea harbor has 3 US BBs and a bunch of cruisers and DDs. The US BBs that were in the battle of Luganville have night combat ratings in the high 50s low 60s so they are not quite as helpless as one might expect but are not nearly as dangerous as the Prince of Wales TF which is entirely British with hand picked captains.

New Caledonia has 3 Divisions and 5 RCTs plus a whole bunch of base forces and stuff, 2 more division are on the way, one is pretty close, and 2 or 3 more battalions are also close. Noumea is maxed out for everything but port which is at 8, Koumac will have an L5 fort tomorrow, both the airfields are at 3 and climbing.

I'm not sure Mogami realizes what he is going to have to fight, but maybe he does.

Of course in the past he has sailed around trying to disrupt my build up, he may do the same thing this time. If he does I will avoid a naval battle, I do not want to commit my fleet unless he is really putting everything on the line.

In 3 more days I can upgrade an Aussie Wirraway unit at La Foa to Spitfires. One more fly in the ointment for Japan.


Airfield stats are for La Foa

[Alikchi2]

Oh wow. This is either going to be a titanic battle, or..

[Ron Saueracker]

Gonna be brutal by any measure.