2005 Stats!

[puresimmer]

OK I just spent about 6 hours writing code and compiling data but I have the 2005 stats up and running (I added them to the Lahman database).

I should be able to release them very soon. Just need to do some testing. I just simmed a season and St. Louis won the series 4-0 over Oakland. Interestingly Baltimore slipped in as the Wild Card!

Overall numbers are pretty good. Its one of the things I like about the real player import algorithms, they are heavily influenced by recent years, not just the season being imported, so for example Jim Thome hit 54 dingers and Philly cruised to the playoffs.

After I post the 2005 modified Lahaman data I'm going to go ahead and age all the players one year and then start making the 2006 roster moves / trades so we can start playing around with projecting 2006 and doing some what if? Type stuff around rumored trades. Anyone interested in helping out with making all the trades and moves?

[akcranker]

Awesome!! I was just thinking about trying to update the stats and can't imagine how much work that is.

[acetonic]

I would be happy to help in any way I can. PureSim sure makes the hot stove season more fun!

[acetonic]

Thanks for the updated database. I put together a 2005 season with all the correct parks to see how mine would turn out.

The World Champion White Sox didn't fare so well, going 80-82 and only finishing ahead of the Royals in the AL Central.

The Indians, Yankees and A's won their respective divisions in the AL with the Mariners getting the wild card. Certainly nothing that couldn't have happened in the real world this past season.

In the NL, The Cards, Phillies and Padres won their divisions with the Cubbies picking up the wildcard slot. All feasable except isn't there some rule that the Braves are required to win the East? [:D]

In the league championships, the Indians pulled a "Red Sox" and came back from a 3-0 game deficit to beat the Yankees and move on to the World Series versus St. Louis. The Cards had little luck in my WS, losing 4-1.

Randy Johnson won the AL "Cy Young" going 20-8 with a 2.93 ERA and 234 K's. Tino Martinez (!?) won the MVP, hitting .313 with 38 dingers and 122 RBI. I had to double check to make sure I didn't load the 1997 version of Tino.

Chris Carpenter won the best pitcher in the NL with 19-8, 2.62 and 166 K's. Adam Dunn was the MVP going .290 34 135. (I would have probably voted for Ken Griffey Jr. .305 39 111)

All in all, a well simmed season with a few suprises but nothing totally impossible. I may run it a few more times to see what the results could be. Thanks for the updated stats and I'll toy around with making the trades and predicting 2006 soon.

[donkuchi19]

Being a lifelong Tribe fan, I think I like your sim acetonic better than reality. [:)]

[akcranker]

Nevermind.. just seen that the database is available for download in a different thread.

[acetonic]

ORIGINAL: donkuchi

Being a lifelong Tribe fan, I think I like your sim acetonic better than reality. [:)]

As an O's fan, I hope you don't mind if I try again! [;)]

[akcranker]

I went ahead and ran a season with default ballparks. Here's the results

American League Division Champs:

Chicago White Sox 87 - 75
Baltimore Orioles 93 - 69
Texas Rangers 95 - 67
Anaheim Angels 86 - 76 Wildcard

National League Division Champs:

Chicago Cubs 93 - 69
Philadelphia Phillies 100 - 62
Arizona Diamondbacks 85 - 77 3 way tie with Dodgers & Padres
Houston Astros 90 - 72 Wildcard

NLCS Houston Astros VS Arizona Diamondbacks
ALCS Anaheim Angels VS Texas Rangers

WS Texas Rangers VS Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona wins in 6 games.

AL Cy Young - Johan Santana 16 - 8 2.50 ERA
AL MVP - Andruw Jones .275 42HR 134RBI

NL Cy Young - Javier Vazquez 20 - 8 2.54 ERA
NL MVP - Carlos Lee .283 34HR 101RBI

League leaders:

BA - Derek Lee Colorado .321
HR - Mark Teixeira Texas 51
RBI - Andruw Jones Seattle 134
Runs Alfonso Soriano Texas 124
Hits Alex Rodriguez Yankees 205 << No other player hit over 200
2B Carlos Delgado & Mike Lowell Florida 49
3B Jimmy Rollins Philadelphia 15
SB Alfonso Soriano Texas 53
BB Todd Helton Cubs 104

ERA Carlos Zambrano Cubs 2.06
Wins Javier Vazquez Arizona 20 << Only player with 20 wins in the league
Losses Gustavo Chacin Toronto & Cliff Lee Cleveland 20
Saves Brad Lidge Houston 59
K's Johan Santana Minnesota 259

There was alot of trades with some being rather lopsided in my opinion. Barry Bonds got traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Roger Cedeno. Barry had a horrible year but I suspect that's because Puresim adjusts the players ratings to how their previous years stats.

[acetonic]

In my second replay of the 2005 season, the Diamondbacks also made the playoffs although they got beat by the Mets in the first round. My Orioles also got in as wildcards but they were thrashed by the Anaheim-Los Angeles-California-Etc Angels. Boston got by Cleveland to beat the Cardinals in the World Series.

Its funny you mentioned Barry Bonds because I was planning to post on that very subject. I was wondering how PureSim would handle a case like his. Great stats for years leading up to season limited by injuries. Here are his real life numbers for the last three seasons.

Year--G---AB---H---HR---RBI---BB---OBP----SLG----AVG----PA/HR
2003--130-390--133-45----90---148--.522---.923---.341---11.9
2004--147-373--135-45---101---232--.607--1.013---.362---13.4
2005----14--42---12---5----10------9---.412---.810---.286---10.2

Decent enough numbers for limited playing time. His homer rate was actually higher than in previous years. If this were a rookie, up for a cup of coffee late in the season you would say his 2005 numbers look promising but there is not enough data to determine exactly how good he is. Since Barry is a veteran, and PureSim looks at the last several seasons, I was wondering how it would handle an off season like this. His Puresim numbers for 2005:

Year--G---AB---H---HR---RBI---BB---OBP----SLG----AVG----PA/HR
2005--39--33---3-----0------2---5---.200---.121---.090---xx.x

Pretty pitiful but at least the game replicated his lack of playing time. I decided to check his ability ratings:

Contact:10 Power:5 Eye:17 Speed:31 Range:38 Potential:11

Those numbers seem very low to me. I'm no fan of Mr. Bonds, and if ranking personality I'd give him all zeroes but this seems a little harsh. I'm just wondering how PureSim came up with these numbers. Could it be because he is 41 years old and the sim thinks he's finally passed playing age? If he's reasonably healthy in real life, he should still put up decent numbers in 2006. With ratings like this, PureSim will probably demote him to the minors next year or release him outright. While I would be quite satisfied if Bonds never gets another major league at-bat, in the interest of an accurate sim I am a little concerned. Any thoughts?

[puresimmer]

Actually I was just looking into that this weekend and there is a quirk in the import code with players that have had previous significant major league experience and then, on the year being imported they had little or no playing time. Bonds 2005 fits this case.

It was an easy fix and I'll post an updated executable this soon.

Thanks for noting this.

Shaun

[acetonic]

ORIGINAL: puresimmer

Actually I was just looking into that this weekend and there is a quirk in the import code with players that have had previous significant major league experience and then, on the year being imported they had little or no playing time. Bonds 2005 fits this case.

It was an easy fix and I'll post an updated executable this soon.

Thanks for noting this.

Shaun

I knew you'd be on top of this one Shaun. Too bad virtual Barry did not have faith and decided to retire prior to the `06 season. [:D]

[akcranker]

Hey Shaun what are these rosters current to, Opening Day 2005?

Reason I ask is because I was thinking about starting a new Replay of the 2005 season with CPU trades turned off and I was going to make each trade as the season went on as they did in real life, then run the offseason and do all the offseason trades, free agent signings etc and then we would be ready for 2006.