Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

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mdiehl
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

Would you therefore think that Japanese replacement pilot quality would be more realistic if it were tied to fuel reserves or something along those lines - rather than the current model?


It comes down to what you think about the inflexibility of doctrine. Adding more pilots early to the IJN forcepool given sufficient fuel requires that you assume the Japanese (a) anticipate a need for a substantial increase in pilot training -- historically they did not see this need in 1942, and (b) eliminate some of the excessive PT standards for pilot qualification (which they did not do until late 1943).

If you think "rewriting the underlying mindset" is something the player should be allowed to do then you'd let fuel supply condition the replacement rate in 1942-1943.

I think in 1944 and thereafter if the Japanese have sufficient fuel the replacement rate should be increased. In point of fact they DID try to increase the size of pilot grad classes but by the time they saw the need and eliminated some of the more arbitrary qualification requirements, lack of fuel was already forcing them to choose between training and operations. Maybe the Japanese player should have such a choice (but wasn't that what "on map training" was originally for?)
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Honda »

If this was the Test Thread ([&o]) I'd have you burned at the stake. However it's not[:D]
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
OTOH I am encouraged because five years ago I was about the only person who thought that GGPW A2A model got the balance wrong. It is heartening to see that despite the noise from the naysayers, there many now who think I am correct.

No there are many who don't know how to play the game, and are sick of losing, even when playing from the Allied side so they clinch to whatever straw comes their way [;)]

O.
mdiehl
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

No there are many who don't know how to play the game, and are sick of losing, even when playing from the Allied side so they clinch to whatever straw comes their way

In Carl Sagan's "baloney detector kit" your comment falls under the category of "Common Fallacies of Logic or Rhetoric" case (1) ad hominem, and case (6) begging the question.

http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/baloney.html
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

LOL how about 7 and 8 from the same list applicable to your posts?

- Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
- Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions from inadequate sample sizes).

O.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Demosthenes »

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
OTOH I am encouraged because five years ago I was about the only person who thought that GGPW A2A model got the balance wrong. It is heartening to see that despite the noise from the naysayers, there many now who think I am correct.

No there are many who don't know how to play the game, and are sick of losing, even when playing from the Allied side so they clinch to whatever straw comes their way [;)]

O.

For me personally, I have to disagree that my disagreement with the Zero Bonus has anyting to do with winning (I play vs AI). In that I am quite capable and happy.

My difficulty with it is simply I see no reason for it: to quote yet another poster of like mind:
ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn


The concept of a "bonus" in a mathematical model is ludicrous on its face. If the model enjoyed reasonable currency to begin with such an advantage would not be necessary. And if the model were errant to that extent (which is certainly the case all over the place with WitP) then the logical course would be to amend the model's math dynamics until the results fell more into line with history, not dream up some across-the-board "bonus" that is not justified by known data.

In principle the Zero Bonus is a bad idea. Make that a very bad idea.
mdiehl
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

I'm game Oleg. On the basis of logic I don't think your POV has much support. 4Ex:
- Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).


Doesn't apply because in re my point (IJN vs USN) I have used ALL the data available from historical sources (see references above). It's not like there are any F4F vs A6M engagements that Lundstrom, for example, conveniently ignored.
- Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions from inadequate sample sizes).


That is a fair point but what is the alternative? To look at the extant data and say "Gee, the sample is small, so instead go with a model that is simply not in accord with the data that are available?" At the least I think you'd either assume "neutrality" or else go with a bias slanted in favor of whatever data you actually have to work from.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

minor correction....
He refused to send in a THIRD strike/Wave.

The Japanese sent in 2 strikes/waves but he chickened out on the third that would have hit the oilfarms, docks etc...

As to the Carriers (US) If they had been located he likely would have seeked them out to sink em

But simoly did not want to have surprise on them instead of their surprising the Americans

You say potata I say potato. For me it's a "second strike" if you refuel, rearm, and relaunch. IIRC the PH strike was 1 strike in 2 waves (necessitated by coorinating a large number of AC from 6 CVs).

"Chickened out" is subjective. It only makes sense to me if you assume that Nagumo could have known that the USN CVs were not in his area and ready to attack. If you assume that they MAY have been, then Nagumo's retirement (and he was low on fuel) makes sense. Because a surprise strike by even only 1 USN CV could have ruined Strike Force's day to the tune of 2-3 CVs sunk. That'd be a rum way to start the war for the IJN.

the Pearl Harbor oil tanks were a difficult target. Each in a double-hulled container with foam fire suppressors and a 20 foot high containment berm around each tank. Bunker grade doesn't burn very well (you have to heat it just to produce the oil gas that was used to run boilers in ships of the day), so the only thing that could really have started a substantial conflagration would have been saturation bombing with HE and liberal intermix of incendiaries... and Kido Butai did not carry incendiaries.

IMO if the oil tanks had been such a soft target the IJN had the intel-information and brains to be able to destroy them. But they'd have had to plan to do it before they left Japan. I suspect that they came to the conclusion that they'd be a waste of effort. And I suspect they were right if that was their conclusion.
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

I'm game Oleg. On the basis of logic I don't think your POV has much support. 4Ex:

"Historical sources" (faulty and limited as they might be) are only one part of the equation here. THE GAME (WITP) is the other - and you don't play it right?

So yes, "observational selection" definitely applies to anything you post, big time.

BTW I wasn't commenting your posts in whole (life is too short to actually read everything you and TJ post) I wanted to comment just the last small note:

"OTOH I am encouraged because five years ago I was about the only person who thought that GGPW A2A model got the balance wrong. It is heartening to see that despite the noise from the naysayers, there many now who think I am correct."

So, what I meant by "observational selection" and "stats of small numbers" was applicable to your assertion about "many who (now) think you're correct", as opposed to you being "alone" in PacWar times (and, therefore, wrong?).

Everybody who wants Zero bonus removed wants that for his own reasons. I think it is fair to say MANY - not all, but many - want it simply to make the game easier because they are BAD players, period. If they remove ZB they will see they are still bad players and that ZB effects were insignificant.

I don't like ZB myself, and would have it removed without problems, but my outlook on the "big picture" is vastly different than yours. I'd like to see ZB removed, but only after much MUCH bigger problems are dealt with (Oscar being made of paper, overabundance of B17s, useless AA etc.) Removing ZB while ignoring those other issues is fanboyism, pure and simple (but since you don't even play the game it's hard to accuse you of fanboyism I give you that [;)])

O.
mdiehl
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

"Historical sources" (faulty and limited as they might be) are only one part of the equation here. THE GAME (WITP) is the other - and you don't play it right?


Well, the historical sources (faulty and limited as they might be) are the only standard by which the game (faulty and limited as it might be) may be judged. I have played it enough to know that the predictable outcomes of A2A in the early war suggest that the A2A combat model is dysfunctional, at least in comparison with history.
So, what I meant by "observational selection" and "stats of small numbers" was applicable to your assertion about "many who (now) think you're correct", as opposed to you being "alone" in PacWar times (and, therefore, wrong?).

Non sequitur. What you meant by "observational selection" was intended to imply that the underlying historical data in support of my pov were selectively chosen (back in the day we called that "data mining.") Your assertion was incorrect. As to the effects of present discussion. I take encouragement from the fact that well reasoned analysis of data can sway people's opinions. Not yours perhaps but then I'm not dissapointed.
I think it is fair to say MANY - not all, but many - want it simply to make the game easier because they are BAD players, period. If they remove ZB they will see they are still bad players and that ZB effects were insignificant.


Again, this is an ad hominem attack and so a logical fallacy.
I don't like ZB myself, and would have it removed without problems, but my outlook on the "big picture" is vastly different than yours. I'd like to see ZB removed, but only after much MUCH bigger problems are dealt with (Oscar being made of paper, overabundance of B17s, useless AA etc.) Removing ZB while ignoring those other issues is fanboyism, pure and simple (but since you don't even play the game it's hard to accuse you of fanboyism I give you that )


Look man I have already said that the 4E bomber problem is also a problem. On the other hand Allied players USE the 4E in the way that they do BECAUSE the game makes other forms of reasonable Allied opposition extremely inadvisable in 1942. And the 4E bomber problem is also a carry over from GGPW by the way. If you read the old GGPW "strategic tips" threads they (well, I haven't read them in years, they USED to) said things like "one way to counter the overwhelming air dominance of the Zero is to make them fight your B-17s" or words to that effect. Heck, I helped WRITE that strategy. Blitzing Kido Butai with 270 B-17s in GGPW had the salient effect of slaughtering Zekes and you could even kill an IJN CV once in a while. But that was hardly "good simulation" by anyone's standards.

If you have a case to make about AAA let's hear it. Is the AAA model broken? Do you have some historical data that indicate that more a/c should be shot down?

Why do you think the Oscar's are inappropriately modeled? Do you have some historical data to support your position. It's an interesting claim. In support of your objection, I'd like to hear how the durability numbers were derived.
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
I think it is fair to say MANY - not all, but many - want it simply to make the game easier because they are BAD players, period. If they remove ZB they will see they are still bad players and that ZB effects were insignificant.


Again, this is an ad hominem attack and so a logical fallacy.

*yawn* dude, whatever... I have better things to do with my time, say - playing the game... I only post here because Mog got slower sending turns lately, and I wait 1.8 patch before I start couple new PBEMs.

This "ad hominem" trick you pull off from time to time is funny to say the least. How is saying that there are bad players out there, who would like to have their job easier, ad hominem attack? Nevermind, rhetoric question.... Selective observation again - anything "other side" says is logical fallacy if for no other reason than because it's "ad hominem attack". Anything you say, even if you don't play the game at all, is 100% logically perfect. LOL enjoy.

O.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Skyros »

An ad hominem argument, also known as argumentum ad hominem (Latin, literally "argument to the man") or attacking the messenger, is a logical fallacy that involves replying to an argument or assertion by attacking the person presenting the argument or assertion rather than the argument itself.

From Wikipedia



For those of us who are not up on our latin.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

Hi Tris,

I'm glad to see you back on the forum. I was wondering where you had disappeared to.

Merry Christmas,

Thank you, Steve. Merry Christmas to you and your family as well. How are you doing on those grueling courses?

I didn't travel all that far . . . only to the dim side of the Net. And as it turns out they (the ubiquitous they) like to argue over there, too. On and on and on they argue, without good sense or purpose, only in their case the arguments rage over loudspeakers, amps, and national politics. In a manner of speaking it isn't completely different from the Matrix forums, except that the product we speak to is somewhat pricier, and the associated software comes installed without a bonus. But hell, what do those people know?

Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: BlackVoid

No, but mdiehl is infamous for this argument on the CM boards.

mdiehl: allies won the war, they were so much better in everything. there is no point in these wargames for you, they all inaccurately improve on axis equipment. And on top we all know they never had a chance. I suggest you go and take some other hobby... [;)]

You choose to grossly misrepresent the argument of one of the few people who has consistently posted to this forum (and the UV forum) with unrelenting logic and rock-sound research. Plus, mdiehl somehow manages not to respond (as a rule--once in awhile he goes off, but his patience stands easily the triple of mine) in kind to people such as you.

All in all, you appear to be just one more member of the overwhelming aggregate of Matrix membership which possesses no good clue when it comes to the art of argument per se, and who otherwise has nothing whatsoever of discernible value to add to the discussion. Furthermore, you most likely are, I am unhappy to judge, just the sort of personality Gary must have had in mind when he first devised, oh so long ago, the illuminating concept of the Zero Bonus. Which all goes to render you pretty much without question, as the vernacular would have it . . . a real piece of work.

Be that as it may, Merry Christmas to you, and to everyone else in the forum as well. [:)]


Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn

You choose to grossly misrepresent the argument of one of the few people who has consistently posted to this forum (and the UV forum) with unrelenting logic and rock-sound research.

Pfffttthahaha LOL [:D] [:D] Oh man, I need that smiley that is pounding its fist on the imaginary table while it cries itself laughing.

What logic? What research?

He's just preposterous - not as much as yourself, though - and some people will always fall for that. Quoting Lundstrom, an author most people on this group read - and quoting him selectively - is no "research" mister.

Did mdiehl spend like 6 months digging thru Japanese archives translating and decyphering the mountainload of data that is to be found there? Well, that's something that I would call "research" in full meaning of that word.

But, even that would be faulty, as he would apply what he found there in way that suits him most.

It would also be faulty in that we are here to discuss history, as applied for the purpose of the GAME, not as something that just hangs in the air, to impress us all from above.

O.

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Oleg Mastruko
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Oleg Mastruko »

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko
Pfffttthahaha LOL [:D] [:D] Oh man, I need that smiley that is pounding its fist on the imaginary table while it cries itself laughing.

This one...

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Black Mamba 1942 »

ORIGINAL: Helpless

ORIGINAL: Black Mamba 1942

So, out of curiosity sake.
You think CHS leans more toward the Japanese?
Is it because of more available shipping?
Or, because of VP garnishing by destroying the myriad of "fixed" Allied LCU's.

What's your opinion Helpless?

I do not think it is leaned to any side. WITP is not the game you can judge before you reach at least 1943 [:D].. I'm just in summer 1942 in one game.

The reasons I found that it is harder to play Allies in CHS than in stock mainly are
- replacement rates for Allies planes. In 1942 it is very low.
- all this new allied shipping been intoroduced by CHS gives just easy targets for Japanese.
- allies supplies reduction keeps you at least to follow it [:)]

There might be quite a few other reasons. I have a feeling that CHS guys had much more sources about Allied OOB, and they brought that close to "witp-reality" [:)] . I know that there gonna be some changes to Japanese OBB as well. Let's see...

Keep going guys...


Thanks for the input Helpless![;)]
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by moses »

People take this issue way too seriously.

I'm sure a very large number of decisions were made on nothing more then the designers gut feel of the period. What more can be expected? GG can't really be expected to have researched the entire war and answered all of the historical questions that we could debate endlessly.

Its just a game and many of these question could occupy a good portion of a historians life.

I have no idea if the zero bonus is historically justified or not.

I am almost certain however that its effect on game play is not very large and of far less strategic consequence then issues related to logistics and pace of operations. So any change here is probably going to have very little impact on game play.

Really the developers should have played a trick on us and just deleted the zero bonus in 1.6 and not told anyone. I doubt anyone would notice the change and people would continue to lobby for its removal.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

A few observations:
1. The A6M2 had sufficient range to fly from Rabaul to Guadalcanal and engage in a substantial air combat over Guadalcanal. "10-30 minutes spare fuel" is the number I recall, with the variation depending on the Zero's airspeed in flight and maintenance issues. Since your average combat from an individual pilot's POV lasted something like (IIRC) 2-5 minutes during WW2 (before they were dead, bailing out, out of the combat area, or out of targets) the historical fact is that the A6M2 could make the trip and fight a battle (and did). So any version, CHS or not, should allow the Zero the range to make the flight.

Morison gave around fifteen minutes TOT for Zeros flying down the Slot (this would be within the context of combat--you could extend that for strictly escort duty). I can't remember what Lundstrom cited in this regard, but it must have been similar or I'd have caught the discrepancy when I did my research on the campaign. I could easily look that up should it become an issue again (which I doubt--I'd only go that trouble if someone's mod hung in the balance), but as I see it this point is old and tired.

One good result of all that arguing years ago over in the UV forum was that it prompted me to do a search for copies of the out-of-print Lundstrom books, both of which I discovered (and new copies, no less!) in a bookshop called Hyland's in Melbourne. Expensive, yes, but these are indispensable resource works on the subject. At that time I also borrowed San Jose State University's copy of Frank's Guadalcanal--not as good a read, in my opinion, though it, too, offers loads of detail, most especially for the land part of that campaign. Lundstrom and Frank shared much of the same primary data for all I could tell, and basically arrived at an identical conclusion with re to air-to-air combat tallies--this coinciding very closely with Morison's own bottom line, I might add.

One extremely important factor you failed to cite above would be . . . ammunition, a detail of combat ignored by Gary and which leads directly to the bloodbaths we experience constantly within the game's cockeyed air-to-air model, especially with regard to the incredible modeling of CAP--wave after wave after wave of CAP, all these aircraft presumably rearming themselves "on the fly."
2. Honda says:
With all due respect, what is you point? You decided not to play the game. You however wish to improve it but it's only improvement from your point of view. Not from mine. And I know it's CHS and not stock scenario but I also downloaded and thaught about playing it. I fear what the game would look like if you had your way with it. So, just to go back up a little because I really am interested in what is the point of all this. We're here to improve the game but you aren't so why? Maybe for the discussions? I don't know...

We disagree as to whether or not my suggestions would improve the game. Your claim that I am not here to improve the game is incorrect. Why do I make these suggestions? WitP has some core game mechanics that I find quite interesting, and its potential as a WW2 sim/game for PBEM is very great. But not (IMO) as long as the model has goosed the system to substantially favor the Japanese through 1942. That the Japanese succeeded for 6 months IRL had nothing to do with abstract bs like "here's a Zero bonus" instead it had to do with excellent preparation, interior lines, strategic (and often tactical) initiative, poor allied logistics in most areas where the early war was engaged, and poor early disposition of Allied assets. While the latter is in part a condition of the at-start war, the Allied player can (and should) work to alter it. The former is a consideration of Japanese player skill, and the Japanese player should have to work hard at it.

True, but this would require a much more sophisticated model. Plus, there are and will always be gamers of the fanboy mentality who, for whatever reason, Gary feels justified in catering to. Why he feels so justified I do not know, as it ought to be apparent that a more accurate simulation would sell just as many copies, if not more copies still, as the version extant.

In any event, we got what we got. Should you ever play a game or two you'll experience firsthand how hopelessly screwed-up the stock version is.
In its current formulation, WitP offers more or less identical strategic problems as Gary Grigsby's Pacific War. It has the same errors (overrated Japanese a2a capability, allied rebuttal to Japanese fighters in the form of 4E bombers), same strategic gaffes (egregiously overestimated Japanese logistical capability, overestimated Allied logistical capability through March 1942, undue rewards to the Japanese "blitz everywhere" strategy, inherent foolhardiness in challenging IJN CVs with an equal number of USN CVs at any time in 1942 unless the Japanese player spends a while dulling his sword by pounding away at land bases with CV based Zeros). So while there are some novel characteristics to WitP, it is from a strategic game pov, basically just GGPW all over again.

Now, if my suggestions are used to improve CHS and they work, then there is a decent chance they will be used to revise the core game (WitP). And that would be an outstanding thing. If that happened, WitP would stand a chance of rising above standards already set by GGPW and a number of board-wargames.

I see none of that happening on the Matrix side, but one is, as always, free to live and hope.
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

Post by mdiehl »

One extremely important factor you failed to cite above would be . . . ammunition, a detail of combat ignored by Gary and which leads directly to the bloodbaths we experience constantly within the game's cockeyed air-to-air model, especially with regard to the incredible modeling of CAP--wave after wave after wave of CAP, all these aircraft presumably rearming themselves "on the fly."


True. I don't know how ammunition load out is modeled or whether or in what way a/c that fly an initial round of CAP survive to engage in subsequent combat rounds. That part is a black box to me. I won't hold my breath waiting for a relase of the source code or even pseudocode. Anyway it'd be unreasonable to ask for trade secrets.
At that time I also borrowed San Jose State University's copy of Frank's Guadalcanal--not as good a read, in my opinion

I think the strengths in Richard Frank's text are in the analysis of surface combat and land combat. He and Lundstrom worked cooperatively to glean the a2a data as I recall, but Lundstrom was looking in greater detail at the USN pilot and VMF pilot experience. Frank was trying to set the A2A in the context of its strategic importance for the way the battle played out.

If you liked that you would also like Frank's Downfall. It's about the end-game period of the Pacific war. One interesting fact is that Marshall in formulating a possible scenario for use of tactical nukes to aid the invasion of the Japanese home Islands was told by the US Army liason to the Manhattan Project that "at least seven additional nuclear bombs" would be available by 1 November 1945.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

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