Pauk's corner: sake break for Japanese fanboys

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: pauk

Sneer, you are apsolutely right here, however.... You can see that i got 1-1 with deliberate, then i rested my troops (on single unit was with 25+ fatigue), ordered shock attack and got 0-1. Simply don't understand....

It has to be some kind of die roll or something which determines the odds. It seems to me that different turns can produce slightly different odds with little or no variation in other conditions. Maybe I'm wrong.

[pauk]

Your thought could be right. I look it in this way:

combat phase:

1. Checking assault value/support/supply/disruption/fatigue
2. calculating losses
3. dice roll - even if attacker should win (based on #1), there is chance to get 0-1 odds (doesn't matter if the chance is 5 or 15 % right now).

Knowing that dice roll is part of many wargames and that Gary (Grigsby) loves to hide some routines I wouldn't be suprised that ground combat works on above described way (more or less)...

huh, i think that should stop with my paranoic ideas now [:D]


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/05/42

It's hard to have fight when your opponent adopt Sir Robin defence. Andy withdrew his fighters from Calcutta, like he withdrew fighters from Dacca earlier (after my sweep).

Bankha captured with almost intact oilfields.

Paras still holding at Kunmning hex.

And that's all....
[>:]

[Sneer]

die rolls - unfortunately
that's why I wrote about receiving 1:1 regularly
you don't know how much above 1 you are when 1:1
I had similar situation in my game
landed at Akyab - combat did not cause much disruption
pushed forts to 0 in 3 days only to get 0:1 with 0 forts - seems my margin was low and rolls good in previous days

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/06/42

Heavy bombardment of Banjarmasin, bde and SED unloading there.

Another 22 resource hits on Chungking by Army bombers.

Hey,this is very exciting AAR![8|]

In next few days i will be ready to start "Klokan-go" and i will post operation details soon.

Oh, yes, transfered Sallys to Koepang but i can not reach Derby with them although that base is 8 hex from koepang... grrrrr... i have to use naval LBA for strategic bombing...phew!

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/07/42

SRA

I've lost combatreport so no details for today.

Banjarmasin captured, defeated Dutch units withdrew into jungle. Troops unloading at Lombok. With near capture of that base (plus Bali) campaign for DEI is finished.

Troops for first phase of "Klokan-go" (Perth invasion) loading into transports: 15th Army, 5th Division, 21 Division, 1st and 2nd Tk rtg, two eng units. Special BF + BF form Koepang and Meure will joined invincible Armada later.

KB (+ CVL Shoho) will provide close support, while fast BB TF will bombard Perth (all four fast BB + 5 CA). Lets hope that Gods of Intel won't inform Andy about my future goal.


PACIFIC

Well, shouldn't complain about lack of action. It seems that Andy reacting on my recent moves in the Pacific! I moved Mavis chutai in Lunga and found enemy TF in Coral Sea traveling NW. There is not much i can do, i'm off guard here, so let's hope that Andy will turn back his TF... if not, well i'm going to be in trouble...

In few turns one Zero daitai + 2 LBA datais will arrive in Truk...

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/08/42


Yosuoka SNLF captured Andaman Island and destroyed part of RN base force there.

SS Triton reported sunk at Wyndham.

Air Flotilla HQ are on route to Koepang - I want cordinated strike against Derby. My plan is simple - attacking resources. Andy will have to react and send fighters there or he will lose 600 points. I'm ok with former:)


PACIFIC - Andy send Yorktown and Saratoga in raid mission. Fortunatly he did not caught my transports, but i can not be satisfied with current situation there. I was hasty with invasions there, but also easy going...

I have air HQ in Truk, but didnt send it to the Rabaul where are my air groups stationed.


Day Air attack on Lunga , at 67,97

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 18
SBD Dauntless x 66

Japanese aircraft losses
H6K4 Mavis: 1 destroyed


Japanese ground losses:
91 casualties reported

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 22

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
17 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
17 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
17 x SBD Dauntless bombing at 2000 feet
--------------------------------------------


Day Air attack on TF at 64,97

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 3
G4M1 Betty x 12

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 7
F4F-4 Wildcat x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 damaged
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Yorktown
CV Saratoga

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet
2 x G4M1 Betty launching torpedoes at 200 feet


Nauru Island captured.


CHINA - Paras still holding! I need just few more turns before reinforcements arrive at notorious crossroad.

Ground combat at Kunming

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 24000 troops, 142 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 3643 troops, 17 guns, 0 vehicles

Allied assault odds: 16 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
26 casualties reported

Allied ground losses:
150 casualties reported
Guns lost 5

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/09/42

Grrr... Andy found my transports and sunk one TF entirely. Fortunatly, it was a TF with small base force and this is certaintly better than sinking TF with eng reg.


Day Air attack on TF at 71,90


Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 2
F4F-4 Wildcat x 6
SBD Dauntless x 49
TBD Devastator x 28


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Tateyama Maru, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AP Kowa Maru, Bomb hits 8, on fire, heavy damage
AP Konsan Maru, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AP Tonei Maru, Bomb hits 7, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
829 casualties reported
Guns lost 7


---------------------------------


Day Air attack on TF at 71,90


Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4
SBD Dauntless x 17


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Tateyama Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Japanese ground losses:
24 casualties reported
Guns lost 1


Ground combat at Lombok

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 6684 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 1471 troops, 6 guns, 2 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 40 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Lombok base !!!


Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Allied ground losses:
2359 casualties reported
Guns lost 4

The only bases left in Dutch hands are Bali, Samnit and bases on the east coast of the Sumatra.

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/10/42

Bali captured.

I no longer holding position at Kunming hex. My paras withdrew to forest east of Kumning.

Andy's CV's heading to Kwajilen (sp?)... grrrr... and i was thinking about leaving Zero Daitai there for escort my Nells. I'm quite sure that i would caught him with attack - i moved air flotilla HQ and Nells to Maloelap month before..oh, well...

[pauk]

some action!


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/11/42



Andy moved lot's of bombers in Ledo, but there was also some ac on CAP duty. I've ordered two daitai's to strike Ledo. 17 enemy ac shot down (7 Warhawks from AVG and 24th FG (hm, where they come from?), 5 Hurricanes and 5 Wildcats from VF-2 (are they from Enterprise or Lex? - common you Allied fanboys, I know you are lurking:)). I've lost 4 Zeros in A2A combat.


Day Air attack on Ledo , at 36,25

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 54
Ki-46-II Dinah x 1

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 6
Hurricane II x 9
P-40E Warhawk x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 5 destroyed
Hurricane II: 5 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 7 destroyed


Do you remember that Andy abandoned Calcutta AF (fighters) but leaved bombers on runway? I sent Nells from Rangoon on strike. Three Nells were destroyed by flak but 11 enemy planes destroyed on the ground. I'm not concerned about this 3 Nells - they were semi-trained (app 65 exp). Actually i'm glad with this mission - such strikes can only fool Andy about my next mission. In addition, I've set PP points for BAA divs on indian bases + few more. Hope that will be enough.

But that's not all. Kwantung army is also part of my Great Plan (yeah, i know, i'm sound like Japanese officers when they planed Midway operation[:D]). Kwantung divs were set to prepare for Vladivostok last month, and they are moving towards Manchuko-Soviet border now. Of course, i wont attack Russia. Oh, lets back to India....


Day Air attack on Calcutta , at 29,23

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 18
G3M Nell x 36

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
A-20B Boston: 5 destroyed
Blenheim IF: 1 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
71 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Airbase hits 11
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 24

Aircraft Attacking:
All G3M Nell bombing at 9000 feet

Today losses were 30 Allied planes/8 Japanese.

Naval guard unloading at Benkolen and Pamakasan.



Here is a situation in Burma and China:





PACIFIC


Makin captured. Getting hot!

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/12/42

SRA & INDIA

Minefield at Karachi welcomed AP Landsberge:

Allied Ships
MSW Eland Dubois
MSW Abraham Crijnssen
MSW Pieter de Bitter
MSW Jan van Amstel
AP Van Landsberge, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Benkolen captured, defeated Dutch units withdrew to jungle. Good, more training targets for my airforce. Pakamasan captured.


KLOKAN GO STARTED!






CHINA

A massive strike on Hong Kong! More than 130 monsters attacked HK HI and almost halved production there! Well it is painful but i don't know if it is bad or good to know that enemy monsters operated now in the China - this means that they aren't elswere. But, as i read in Oleg's AAR, I can not count that those monsters will run out of supply.

Anyway, I've take counter measures:

- ordered attack on resources (Kunming)
- withdraw majority of Army bombers from Wuchow and other exposed bases to second line AF's (Shangai... etc) and dispersed them between bases
- moving some Zero's to China

No, i'm not going to use Zeros for CAP - nothing cant stops 140 4E bombers. I will use them as escort for sudden strike on Chungking. Unforutnatly Ichang isn't expanded even to lvl 2 yet so i can not use Oscars for sweep over Chungking (Chinese AirForce protect the base so far. Doubt that Andy will move most of British and American fighters in the China, but if he do it, well than thats a sign that I did not fooled him with "Curry go" (fake Indian "invasion").

In addition, Navy bombers will strike on Derby's resources - i need to keep pace and force Andy to look at many theatres in the same time!


Day Air attack on Hong Kong , at 43,42


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 64
LB-30 Liberator x 78


No Allied losses

Heavy Industry hits 18

bombers attacking at 6000 and 11000 feet


I've read a thread regarding ground combat, but i'm not any smarter especially after watching this combat at notorious crossroad. Not even 6.000 AP (well supplied, with support of 5 Army HQs and Ch. E. Ar. HQ) can not defeat weaker enemy forces... oh, well, i guess that my campaign in China is over...

Ground combat at 42,37

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 328098 troops, 3493 guns, 432 vehicles

Defending force 155839 troops, 720 guns, 0 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
14896 casualties reported
Guns lost 170
Vehicles lost 56

Allied ground losses:
2053 casualties reported
Guns lost 50

I'm down to 4.500 AP here...


PHILIPPINES

Usual bombings of Manila port and AF. Bombers set on ground unit attack refuses to fly... several days...phew!

Deliberate attack ordered for tomorrow.


PACIFIC

Enemy CVs are now south of Solomons... Andy did not run in my trap.

[pauk]

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/13/42

Retaliation for strategic bombing of Hong Kong worked perfectly! Kumning is visited with 60 Sally's from Wuchow and 13 resources are hit.

Andy withdrew his 4E bombers to unknown location. Well, it seems that was only divertion strike, but i have to be careful and not allow Andy to get easy victory points here (if he choose to attack AFs in China). Anyway, i will keep pressure in that theatre although it is clearly that i can not achive decisive victory in that particular theatre. But, Andy will have to keep an eye on China and hopefully he will make mistake(s) in other theatres....

Derby, the main target of retailation, was also hit! 24 resource hits, but 171 resources are damaged and i got 342 victory points for that (171 x 2). That cost me 3 naval bombers but i think it worth! I moved Navy LBAs from Kendari and if Andy would not react i will visit Derby again...


Day Air attack on Derby , at 24,85

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
G3M Nell x 59
G4M1 Betty x 79
Ki-46-II Dinah x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 2 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged

Resources hits 24

Aircraft Attacking:
All bombing at 7000 feet

After long struggle, Manila finally falls! Acutally, i can not be pleased here, it took me to long to capture this damned place. Seven japs division and three tk regiments are available for other assigments. One will go to Malaya together with 55th div and defend Burma/Malaya theatre form Allied counterstrike from India.

Rest are set on Darwin and i expect that they will be ready for invasion on Darwin after Perth.

Japanese panzers at Manila






Ground combat at Manila

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 173616 troops, 1453 guns, 454 vehicles

Defending force 50705 troops, 210 guns, 136 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Manila base !!!


Japanese ground losses:
2359 casualties reported
Guns lost 102
Vehicles lost 4

Allied ground losses:
56665 casualties reported
Guns lost 358
Vehicles lost 58

Not to many troops here. Andy probably evacuated support troops...

[Honda]

GG

[pauk]

Honda, I'm stupid these days, what does GG mean?


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/14/42




Sampit is captured and this was last Dutch base in SRA (not counting enemy bases on eastern Sumatra coast.

Poor Porpoise (hey, why i start to think about Brady every time when this sub is mentioned?;) recived two 250kg bombs in Manila waters.

50 transports are ordered to airlift 21 Air flotilla HQ to Cayagan - i hope that I will sunk more Andy's subs - guessing that he still sending them in PI area (for evacuating units from Cebu and Cotabato.

59 Sallys attacked Kweiyang AF (from Wuchow) and destroyed 4 SB-2cs on the ground.

And that's all... I'm unable to locate 4E bombers new location (Chengtu or India rear bases?) so everything tells me that was only a trip in the China, but who knows? I'm more and more convinced that bombing of HK resources was a good move - for me! I can expand HI in Home Islands as long i have plenty of raw materials coming from SRA (i will post overall industry situation later).

Invincible (bah!) Armada sailing to the meeting point, but i wont be able to start invasion before April - this is a month when my bonus expires?

It would be nice that Andy plans retaliation for bombing Derby resources with his naval force and try to close Koepang- my carriers are in the area! But, he will try offensive in Solomons, more likely. 9 AP reported in Noumea waters, there are at least two enemy carriers....

I can count only on Rabaul and Navy Air Force for defending this area. Buin is still lvl 3 AF, and rest of my carriers (Baby KB is on route to Singapore for R&R).

SEE is on route to Tuk, 56th bde will leave Luzon in next few days (to Truk). Yes, i'm weak in the Southwest Pacific, but i have no choice at the moment.

Yamashiro and Fuso sails to Japan for a March upgrade (phew, 4 more AA guns).




NAVAL LOSSES


--------------------Allies-------------Japan[/color]

CA__________1____________0

CL/CLAA______5___________2

DDs__________9___________13

Subs_________21____________7

PG/PCs_______6____________10

PTs__________23___________0

MSWs________8____________3


Tenders______7____________1

TK/AOs______12____________0

AKs_________58____________3

APs_________11_____________12

Naval losses didn't change much since last statistic post. I've lost some AP's (reinforcing Lunga), but Andy lost 15 more subs (mainly from Army bomber ASW forces).

[pauk]

no turns from Andy and I'm bored...thinking about Perth invasion.

The truth is that i didn't have major invasion so far, so i would like to have feedback from you guys...

I'm not sure how to conduct invasion. I have several ideas but...

I have KB and 4 fast BB plus 6 CAs. How to use them?

Do i need to use my Glens from subs for recon before bombardment? Is it better to have two bombardment TFs (one will bombard Perth latter, when troops starts unloading) or throw them all together in one try (I'm afraid of bad results, and i can not rearm my Big Boys on the open sea)

Is it better to have one biiig invasion fleet or several smaller?

Lots of questioons going through my mind... but i will try to explain my plan:

Phases:

#1. Recon with Glen (turn before BBs arrive)
- yeah i know it will alert Andy, but Perth is loong away from other Aussie bases. Which means no fighter can arrive to the Perth. 4E bombers can, but they will be fatigued.
+ I will know if there is enemy fleet (especially PTs)
+ a better chance for succesfull bombardment from the sea
#2. Naval bombardment with 2 BB and 3 CA (1st BB TF will withdraw with full speed and then will be assigned to invasion fleet)
#3. KB will attack Perth AF (naval/af orders)
#4. Vals will bombard enemy HI
#5. transports arrive at Pearth and start to disembark troops
#6. Vals will bombard enemy HI;resources

What do you think?

[Sneer]

Perth is rarely well defended + is far from other bases
if you unload enough troops on day1 you don't need KB to support
just bring couple of divisions and strong bombardment force
I sunk 2 CV in Perth today - it was thought about beeing safe[:D]

[pauk]

Oh, that's must hurts Ravers noble *ass[:D]...

Well, KB have two missions: protect the conwoy but main mission is bombing HI and resources (i think that i can get near 1000 points in four days!)

It would be nice to caught some of his ships in Perth port, but I can not count on that. Anyway, thanks to reminding me that Vals should be on naval/port attack orders.

[Sneer]

but what are advantages apart from points ?
I would hide KB and try to sink enemy forces counterattacking

[invernomuto]

Invincible (bah!) Armada sailing to the meeting point, but i wont be able to start invasion before April - this is a month when my bonus expires?

You still have a +1 mvr bonus in April. The bonus expires in May.

Bye

[pauk]

Sneer, you are absolutely right.

But, first half of 1942 is happy time for Jap player. Andy is on Sir Robin now, and I need to keep the pressure on him. I'm going for Australia, and Perth strike is good divertion, i think. Yeah i know, KB will be far away from Pacific etc... but i think it worth it - i'm not going for autovictory, but if i got 500-600 points for strategic bombing of Perth and get close to 4-1 Andy would have to risk latter in this year - and then i will waiting for him. That's the main reason for strike on Perth. (i have no hope that i would caught his navy in Indian ocean, and my intel told me that enemy bomber force are in India. Of course, i could be wrong....but I based my future plans on mentioned prediction)

Second, those forces used for Perth invasion are not far away from my next target - northern Australia and they can /will/ be used for Derby and Broome. Divisions from Philippines are resting now and transfering to Palau and will be ready to engage enemy in most crucial time - during invasion on Derby.

I'm aware that presence of KB in northern Australia waters means that i have weak point in my defence - Pacific. But, as far as i know, two enemy carriers are in India. Andy used air groups from one of them (VF ?) and these groups are not in the finest shape (Dauntless are destroyed, Wildcats were decimated - yeah i know he have enrmous pool, but at least these groups are not in the 80's now. They are close to 70s i think - and that's could be decisive difference!)

So, Pacific have to be defended with Navy land based Air Force. If i succed to defend all bases (Solomons) I would be more than happy. If not, i'm hoping to caught his carriers - i dont need to sink them, but if i damage only one i will be in favourable situation - having numerical advantage in CVs (his CVs are split - one group is in the India and other in Pacific). Ok, these assumption works only if Andy would not mix his air groups (no other ac capable groups on CVs than original ones) and use original CV groups on the ground AFs visible to my eyes). If he do it, well, than i'm in trouble but i think Andy wouldn't do such thing....

So, if i'm even can't stop his expected invasions in the Solomons (i don't want to think what if he decide to go for Marshalls [X(]) i can cut his supply lines and regain lost teritory. I will have enough forces for that after Northern Australia joins my Empire....

Wow, it looks so easy - i'm good dreamer, obviously[8|]

Inver: thx, but i was thinking about ambhibious bonus (+200%) - does it expire by the end of the March?

[Sneer]

strange points grow fast if you don't play to collect them and vice versa